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31,937 comment(s). Last comment by Kukuman at Jan 21, 2020 8:44 PM
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i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 5, 2019 8:28 PM | Report Abuse

that's what I thought too
as Malaysia gets more and more bankrupt,
Jaks EPS will increase more and more.

so must hold Jaks as a hedging mechanism

from 2.5 to 3.5 and today is already 4.17

so if exchange rate becomes 5

Jaks EPS from Vietnam operations becomes 57 sen


DK66
2201 posts

Posted by DK66 > Dec 5, 2019 9:04 PM | Report Abuse

In short, the power plant will be negatively affected by;

1. below par performance test
2. low electricity demand
3. low PLF and efficiency
4. act of god
5. weak USD/RMB
6. unexpected high maintenance costs
7. higher than normal interest costs

However, I believe the capacity charge would have incorporated sufficient cushion for most of the above impact.


VIN3133
353 posts

Posted by VIN3133 > Dec 5, 2019 9:47 PM | Report Abuse

Thank you DK66 for refreshing !!
OTB's projection of EPS 0.78 is indeed a booster in our confidence in Jaks !!
Dumb dumb hold !!
Let's wet wet song song together !! ( to quote abang Musang )
Let's win big !!

Happy investing !!


DK66
2201 posts

Posted by DK66 > Dec 5, 2019 10:01 PM | Report Abuse

Vietnam electricity shortage is severe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-energy/vietnam-will-face-severe-power-shortages-from-2021-ministry-idUSKCN1UQ11M


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 5, 2019 10:28 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha i3lurker,
Stop playing around in JAKS forum with your sarcastic question and comment.

For reference:
AES 51% Subsidiary MongDuong distributions the following to AES
Mong Duong: USD 74M (YTD 2019):
Mong Duong: USD 45M (FY2018)
Mong Duong: USD 51M (FY2017)
Mong Duong: USD 46M (FY2016)

So make your own guess 30% or 40% equity will make how many millions and how many millions will be distributed to equity holders?

If I am right, I think JAKS will have another PP or RI in 2020 for capital-raising to cover the negative cash flow/capital shortfall.

Thank you


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 5, 2019 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

unmetered connections causes electricity to be wasted coz its free

compounded with cheap electricity for households, subsidized by higher charges for business users.

cheap electricity for households ===> wastage coz its cheap...

lack of enforcement.

all that makes good business for Energy IPPs


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 5, 2019 10:36 PM | Report Abuse

sslee

did you multiply by 2? need my calculator?


FullTime
1057 posts

Posted by FullTime > Dec 6, 2019 8:16 AM | Report Abuse

How much is jaks negative cash flow ?


SarifahSelinder
2644 posts

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Dec 6, 2019 8:19 AM | Report Abuse

INTENSE

OTB If Jaks owns 40% of the power plant, the profit can be RM 500 million per year. 
As long as the Malaysian operations do not lose big money, the EPS can be higher than 0.48. 

Number of shares issued of Jaks is 643 million. 
500 million profit (tax free), the EPS is 0.78. 
Thank you.

05/12/2019 8:09 PM


SarifahSelinder
2644 posts

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Dec 6, 2019 8:21 AM | Report Abuse

Sarifah proudly berjiwa IPP unapologetic angkuh dan liar


SarifahSelinder
2644 posts

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Dec 6, 2019 8:23 AM | Report Abuse

1st electricity by 18 January 2020...


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 6, 2019 8:54 AM | Report Abuse

Dear FullTime,
Current Year 9 Months end 30-Sep-2019
RM'000
Net Operating Cash Flow: (70,376)

Current Assets
Inventories: 1,571
Property Development Costs: 47,712
Amount due from customers for contract works: 437,695
Trade and Other Receivables: 502,216
Amount due by Joint Venture: 8,731
Deposits placed with licensed banks: 64,665
Cash and bank balances: 34,530

Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term Borrowings: 318,154
Deferred Tax Liabilities: 94

Current Liabilities
Trade and Other Payables: 882,044
Bank borrowings: 92,204
Bank overdraft: 8,503

Capital contribution contracted but not provided for in respect of shares subscription in JAKS Pacific Power Limited, joint venture of the Group amounted to approximately USD56.14million or RM235.0million, using exchange rate of USD1 : RM4.187.


DK66
2201 posts

Posted by DK66 > Dec 6, 2019 8:57 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

The capital commitment was reduced from US$92.14m in Dec 2018 to US$56.14m as at 30 Sept 2019 using profit from its vietnam EPC contracts.

I have demonstrated many times that the profit from vietnam EPC contracts is sufficient to fulfill the power plant capital commitment. You could not provide counter arguments but continue to insist without merit that Jaks would not be able to meet its capital commitment. Why ? This is unlike you.


PN17player
625 posts

Posted by PN17player > Dec 6, 2019 9:00 AM | Report Abuse

COS he want to buy cheap


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 6, 2019 9:19 AM | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
I just provide the alternatively/caution views without malice since FullTime ask the question.

Golden Keen Holdings Limited (EPC 2 contract: USD454.5 million works in Vietnam Power plant)
2016 Revenue: RM150.1 million. Profit before tax: RM36.2 million (24.12%)
2017 Revenue: RM251.2 million. Profit before tax: RM55.1 million (21.93%)
2018 Revenue: RM324.7 million. Profit before tax: RM82.6 million (25.43%)
2019 Q1 Revenue: RM255.8 million. Profit before tax (EPC2 and local): RM58.3million
2019 Q2 Revenue: RM226.4 million. Profit before tax (EPC2 and local): RM53.4million
2019 Q3 Revenue: RM 168.5 million. Profit before tax (EPC2 and local): RM39.3million

To dated EPC2 contract recognized RM 1,376.7
So balance EPC2 ? What is the expect profit? Enough to cover the Capital contribution contracted but not provided for in respect of shares subscription in JAKS Pacific Power Limited, joint venture of the Group amounted to approximately USD56.14million or RM235.0million?
Do you know what the last PP money uses were?

Thank you


DK66
2201 posts

Posted by DK66 > Dec 6, 2019 9:30 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

You have previously provided the above information but you did not explain how the profit from EPC isn't sufficient to meet the capital commitment.

Are you sure the last PP money were used to meet the capital commitment ?

It is not helping the i3 readers here by raising unsubstantiated doubts.

Thank you


HuatRex
2047 posts

Posted by HuatRex > Dec 6, 2019 9:36 AM | Report Abuse

Can't help much. People here only can accept positive input as they already put money in as a blind follower. After share price plugged will kao bei kao bu


steady31
182 posts

Posted by steady31 > Dec 6, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

DK66 is right.Last Q result shows over the last 9 months 152.5m of the cash generated from operations went into Investment in Joint Venture which is their share of the plant


Suntory
1483 posts

Posted by Suntory > Dec 6, 2019 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

Even with negative cash flow, i"m sure the debtors will understand that it will take only next few months to be resolved. Jaks and the deptors are businesses in Malaysia with certain flexibility not the rigid accountant rule as pointed out.

What most crucial will be the contribution from the power plant.


Hector99
9 posts

Posted by Hector99 > Dec 6, 2019 10:04 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by Ricky Kiat > Dec 4, 2019 12:33 AM | Report Abuse

http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/12/3/art_8427_2029661.html
越南海阳燃煤电厂工程二号机组厂用电受电plant 一次成功

This refers to the power plant at Haiyang, and the Chinese contractor is apcc2.

JAKS power plant is in Hai Duong and its JV partner is China Power Engineering Consulting Group (CPECC).

Can someone please enlighten me, whether these two comments refer to the same project undertaken by JAKS. Thank you.


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 6, 2019 10:07 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha probability?
My complaint and follow up email to hengyuan auditor, ceo, board and management with cc to SC and Bursa had result in CFO and CEO lost their job.
So what more do you want?
Thank you


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 6, 2019 10:18 AM | Report Abuse

for Shell refinery
shareholders already made money from RM1.80 to end game price RM4.50 being current price
nobody asked you to buy RM15.00 for RM1.80 refinery.


possbly Jaks
will go from RM1.20 now to RM6.00 peak
end game price will hover around RM3.50 to RM4.00

thats normal price patterns from my observations


steady31
182 posts

Posted by steady31 > Dec 6, 2019 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

Hector99,ceec is the holding company and cpecc is one of its operating units.hence the website shows only ceec.power plant work is by cpecc


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 6, 2019 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

I also read somewhere another article during sales talks but cannot find that article anymore.
its stated in agreement there must be continuity.

Please do NOT say bad things to destroy someone's career.

"secondee from Shell to lead Hengyuan Refining in ensuring a smooth transition"

=================================


KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 2): Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd’s managing director Maarten Stals is resigning to return to Shell Global Solutions (M) Sdn Bhd.
In a filing with the stock exchange, Hengyuan Refining said the 51-year-old Dutch national has ended his secondment at Hengyuan, and will return to Shell Global Solutions with effect from March 1.
Stals was appointed as managing director in December 2016 by Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co Ltd (SHPC) as a secondee from Shell to lead Hengyuan Refining in ensuring a smooth transition, achieving compliance with new fuel specifications and setting the path for future growth.
Advertisement

Hengyuan Refining was previously known as Shell Refining Co (FOM) Bhd or SRC. On Dec 22, 2016, Malaysia Hengyuan International Limited (MHIL) acquired a 51% equity stake in SRC from Shell Overseas Holdings Ltd for US$66.3 million. MHIL is wholly-owned by Heng Yuan Holdings Ltd, which in turn, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company Ltd.
Stals — who joined Shell since his graduation in 1990 — was the chief operating officer of SRC previously.
Hengyuan’s share price has spiked by more than six times, from RM2 on Dec 22, 2016 to RM13.62 today.


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 6, 2019 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

relax sslee

First you claim Dato Seri Thong was a thief who steal from Income Tax Dept

Second you claim HRC CEO was sacked purely based on your complaint.

I think you better go on a holiday and relax.

its just money. Losing money its ok
you cannot take money with you to the Happy Share Market when you die.

Better dun talk anymore.


SarifahSelinder
2644 posts

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Dec 6, 2019 10:58 AM | Report Abuse

Sslee

Kan d deal is arranged mcm tu profit kan cover capital for 30%

Koon has put in another way JAKS has sold its 70% to CPECC for abt 450m


hng33
16274 posts

Posted by hng33 > Dec 6, 2019 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear sslee
To dated EPC2 contract recognized RM 1,376.7 , So balance EPC2 is about RM 500m. The expected profit is about RM 120m. As the first unit will commence commercial operation in Q1 2020 first, therefore, Jaks able to derive half of the expected power capacity, 6 month ahead before second unit of power commence commercial operation later.

Thus, based on balance construction profit RM 120m + 6 month power profit from first unit generate estimate RM 120m, Jaks is expect to have enough to cover all Capital contribution contracted but not provided for in respect of shares subscription in JAKS Pacific Power Limited, joint venture of the Group amounted to approximately USD56.14million or RM235.0million.


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 6, 2019 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

sslee figures are all WRONG

first glance I knew already
also all his claims are all wrong
I dun know what he is trying to do.

I am not calling him a fake engineer.
He is actually a genuine high skilled experience qualified engineer.
Yes you cannot call him a fake engineer.

sslee can supply all "wrong figures" its ok I did not bother to comment. No comment.

But please do not affect the good name of people like the CEO and CFO who are Shell transition staff.
Do not claim that they were sacked due to "wrong" doings listed in your letter.
Its people you are destroying, its no longer figures.
Destroy figures, I dun have comment.

I am not calling him a fake engineer.
He is actually a genuine high skilled experience qualified engineer.
Yes you cannot call him a fake engineer.


Jengacam
153 posts

Posted by Jengacam > Dec 6, 2019 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

Calm down everyone. I think u all can go to school teach ba. Too technical already here


Windy1974
73 posts

Posted by Windy1974 > Dec 6, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

By now, all facts have been presented by DK66. I suspect he is INSIDER hehe with his indepth knowledge. Same for Sharifah. Whether you wanna buy or not, it's up to you. But very soon, in 1 year time, result will show whether DK66 is right or not. I have bought a lot more during recent correction though i really shouldn't have because i have committed too high a weighting on JAKS. However, since 5-6 other stocks i fancy is selling at premium PE, i got no choice but to buy more JAKS. No point to everyday come here and chant UP or DOWN.
All factual contributions are highly appreciated. As DK66 highlighted, i want people to prove me wrong too but with facts. I try not to be defensive just because i have bought a lot of JAKS. It's not easy but learning to be subjective


Windy1974
73 posts

Posted by Windy1974 > Dec 6, 2019 11:45 AM | Report Abuse

Btw, i also wanna give advise to those who rely on IB reports. I use them as a guideline but if you wanna make exceptional return, IB reports never help. Their earning estimates are more accurate for blue chips but for small companies you better take it with a pinch of salt, especially from small IB. I am speculating but it's possible for small listed companies to bribe analysts to write favourable reports.
Now, IB is valueing JAKS with SOP currently since management never wanna reveal potential earning from PP. Now, i have seen a lot of conman CEO willing tell you skyhigh future prospects so share price will fly, have you seen a conman CEO try to fry share higher by not revealing potential earnings? That for me is a good sign actually


dailyklse2010
195 posts

Posted by dailyklse2010 > Dec 6, 2019 12:05 PM | Report Abuse

I will pledge my another house for refinance to add JAKS if it was really ask for money from us because ALP also have to subscribe more than us if not his share will dilute which all the effort of PP & WB issuance to increase his stake will gone.

My way is more easy to win big money~ just dumb dumb hold until power station start operation will know everything and the time is close. Huat a !


dailyklse2010
195 posts

Posted by dailyklse2010 > Dec 6, 2019 12:27 PM | Report Abuse

ALP sure know JAKS got super bright future if not why he keep increase his share after obtain the power plant project not before?

Where the ALP money put is more realistic and reliable than other listed CEO said said only.


dailyklse2010
195 posts

Posted by dailyklse2010 > Dec 6, 2019 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

Think about yourself and human characteristic~ Is so good and generous people to put and buy his lousy company to release others share holder ?

FA + TA + future + psychologically is support continue uptrend for JAKS, that why i have all in.


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 6, 2019 12:41 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha i3lurker,
Please do not put words in my mouth. I do not claim ‘Dato Seri Thong was a thief who steal from Income Tax Dept ‘
CFO and CEO resign on their own accord as most likely they are unable to work with Mainland China controlling shareholder.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2986419

Date of change 30 Sep 2019
Name MISS FOO AI LI
Type of change Resignation
Designation Chief Financial Officer
Reason Due to personal reasons

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3005777
Date of change 29 Feb 2020
Name MR DAVID RONALD KEAT
Designation Chief Executive Officer
Description End of Employment Contract
Age 59
Gender Male
Nationality New Zealand
David has held a wide variety of technical, project and executive roles in the oil refining, gas and gas to liquids companies over the last 33 years.

David commenced his career with The New Zealand Refining Company Ltd (NZRC) in 1985 where over 14 years he held a wide variety of posts including Process Engineer, Lab Manager, IT Manager and Shift Manager.

In 1999 he joined Abu Dhabi Gas Industries Ltd, (Gasco), a joint venture with Shell, as a Shell Secondee.

In 2002 he joined Shell MDS (Malaysia) Ltd as a Senior Manager (Operations) until 2005 when he re-joined NZRC as its Project Director for Point Forward Project for 1 ½ years before serving as the Refining Manager for the next 3 ½ years.

From May 2010 he served as Senior Manager - Operations and HSE with the Oman Refining and Petrochemical Industries Company (Orpic), Oman.

From March 2012 to April 2016 David was the Vice President, Technical and Engineering Support with Abu Dhabi Gas Industries (Al Hosn Gas), Abu Dhabi, UAE.

David has been the Chief Operating Officer of Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad since 13 November 2017
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/214178.jsp

Thank you


i3lurker
1500 posts

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 6, 2019 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

dailyklse2010

please dun do that
always leave 1 house free of loans
I do power gen consulting also
so I know little bit only

You see other people power gen like gold mine
there are still risks

99.99% good also mean 0.01% risks like

earthquake
flood


I know your objection if think like that wun get out of bed

another example is malakoff branded boiler from Japan cracked.
hundreds of millions of losses recover back from lawsuit.
who will imagine that

all in what you can afford
dun all in everything you cannot afford to lose


dailyklse2010
195 posts

Posted by dailyklse2010 > Dec 6, 2019 1:10 PM | Report Abuse

i3lurker, Thanks your advise

I have counted my margin account on safety, force selling is only appear when my 3 share drop at same time which JAKS- 0.60 , Hibiscs- 0.70 , CIMB-4.00

I can't said is impossible happen when the time come someone will be super happy entry such low price to be millionaire.

Currently, my paper profit still show 50% which is allow me to quit the market easily without heart pain .


SarifahSelinder
2644 posts

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Dec 6, 2019 1:33 PM | Report Abuse

DK66 is eerie whn it comes to Vietnam IPP high accuracy possiblly knows more thn Andy

Sarifah... jz got lucky


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 6, 2019 2:44 PM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
I am phobia with mainland Chinese controlling shareholders as many of them are crook. I have my pity and sympathy for those Board members and management team work under a mainland Chinese controlling shareholder. I am glad that CFO and CEO choose not to work for mainland Chinese controlling shareholder anymore and I wish them all the best.

Thank you


Sslee
2084 posts

Posted by Sslee > Dec 6, 2019 3:20 PM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
Thank you.
Like i3lurker advice I only invest with money I can afford to lose. In fact I stiil have 2/3 in bank deposit waiting for market to crash and be spoil for choice.
Thank you


steady31
182 posts

Posted by steady31 > Dec 6, 2019 3:28 PM | Report Abuse

This is a wave 4 consolidation which if over at 1.22 will be the start of wave 5 which has 3 possible extensions.shortest is 0.62x 0f wave 0-3 which will end at 1.72.second longest is 1.0 W0-3 which will take us to 2.18 and third is 1.62x ending at 2.77.The catalyst for this to take place will be the price action in MFCB,which if it goes higher will pull up Jaks as well.This is bc the price gap is too great.


OTB
6851 posts

Posted by OTB > Dec 6, 2019 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

Dear steady31,
You are very good in Elliot Wave.

Take one step at a time, 1.72 is not too difficult to achieve in the short term.
Thank you.


steady31
182 posts

Posted by steady31 > Dec 6, 2019 3:48 PM | Report Abuse

Sifu OTB,MFCB wave 5 extension was from 3.63 to 4.84 over 3 month upward move more than 1.62x W0-3.It can happen for Jaks once the investors at latge especially the large funds see the power plant completion is less than 6 months apart and profit contribution from it in EPS is just as significant


MingGoon
961 posts

Posted by MingGoon > Dec 6, 2019 3:52 PM | Report Abuse

steady31 This is a wave 4 consolidation which if over at 1.22 will be the start of wave 5 which has 3 possible extensions.shortest is 0.62x 0f wave 0-3 which will end at 1.72.second longest is 1.0 W0-3 which will take us to 2.18 and third is 1.62x ending at 2.77.The catalyst for this to take place will be the price action in MFCB,which if it goes higher will pull up Jaks as well.This is bc the price gap is too great.
06/12/2019 3:28 PM

OTB Dear steady31,
You are very good in Elliot Wave.

Take one step at a time, 1.72 is not too difficult to achieve in the short term.
Thank you.
06/12/2019 3:35 PM


Steady31 : Thank you for your analysis, and information, very informative. We shall wait for the wave to reach 1.72, and next wave 2.18, and next next wave 2.77.

OTB : Very happy to have you here, Sir. And thank you !


MingGoon
961 posts

Posted by MingGoon > Dec 6, 2019 3:53 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks 1.23 : Top up more jaks if you have..
If you dont have... your choice to get rich or to get richer...


OTB
6851 posts

Posted by OTB > Dec 6, 2019 3:56 PM | Report Abuse

Everything is possible, I hope you are right.
2.77 is possible once IPP starts to sell electricity.
Thank you.


MingGoon
961 posts

Posted by MingGoon > Dec 6, 2019 3:58 PM | Report Abuse

OTB : Thank you Sir !! . Cheers, and have a great weekend...


TST1234
26 posts

Posted by TST1234 > Dec 6, 2019 8:29 PM | Report Abuse

Article related to China Vinh Tan 1 Power Plant in relation to first year anniversary of commercial operation for Unit 1 & Unit 2.

http://www.cnr.cn/gd/gdkx/20191206/t20191206_524886717.shtml

The following are some highlights from the article :-

1) In the first contract year, the two units of the project continued to maintain safe, stable, and high-load operation. The unit load rate reached 95.80%, the cumulative power generation was 8.686 billion kWh, the cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kWh, and the annual utilization hours were 7,238 hours. The available hours specified in the power purchase agreement were completed 17 days in advance.

2) Since the project started construction, on the premise of ensuring safety and quality, Unit 1 was put into commercial operation on July 6, 2018, and Unit 2 was put into commercial operation on November 27, 2018. The actual total construction period was ahead of the requirements of the BOT contract for more than 200 days, at least 300 days ahead of the same type of power plants in Vietnam, creating the best record for the construction speed of similar types of units in Vietnam.

3) Since the project was put into commercial operation, the load rates of the units have all exceeded 95%, and Unit 2 has achieved a record of 274 days of continuous high-load operation from the start of production. This level is leading even in China.


Ricky Kiat
1279 posts

Posted by Ricky Kiat > Dec 6, 2019 8:41 PM | Report Abuse

thanks bro TST1234.


Ricky Kiat
1279 posts

Posted by Ricky Kiat > Dec 6, 2019 8:45 PM | Report Abuse

wow.....load factor 95.8%, cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kWh .

dumb dumb hold....(^o^)

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