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3,187 comment(s). Last comment by sharasphuti5 at Jan 10, 2020 8:22 AM
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vincentfoo
96 posts

Posted by vincentfoo > May 11, 2017 4:18 PM | Report Abuse

Nice, keep going! RM1 soon!


LilyLL
639 posts

Posted by LilyLL > May 11, 2017 4:40 PM | Report Abuse

It today closing 950 2moro may up 1.00 wish good luck


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 11, 2017 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

yup..very likely it will gap up tomorrow


Ryan88
1327 posts

Posted by Ryan88 > May 11, 2017 8:20 PM | Report Abuse

up up up

congrats


LilyLL
639 posts

Posted by LilyLL > May 12, 2017 9:12 AM | Report Abuse

Big drop today


vincentfoo
96 posts

Posted by vincentfoo > May 12, 2017 9:50 AM | Report Abuse

take a breather today


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 12, 2017 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

hope it will rocket after the breather


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 13, 2017 10:33 PM | Report Abuse

MEGASTEEL closure: Impact to MYCRON & CHOO BEE going forward

There are two types of HRC, Iron Ore based HRC and Scrap based HRC.

Scrap based HRC produces Scrap based CRC and Iron Ore based HRC produces Iron Ore Based CRCbefore being used in the next downstream manufacturing process.

Scrap based CRC is used by downstream manufacturers mainly in the Steel Tube and Furniture sectors.Iron Ore based CRC (higher grade) is used for Automotive industry application and Electrical appliances. Refer Link 1 below, Page 8 under Domestic CRC structure for details.

Megasteel produces only Scrap Based HRC

(A) Let us first determine how much does Mycron use Scrap Based HRC per annum as its raw material.

It is reported on Financial YR 2015 annual report that it uses ‘Scrap based HRC’ as its raw material solely from Megasteel for its Steel Tube manufacturing segment. Refer Link 1, page 12 second paragraph on its annual report.

Link 1: Mycron Annual Report

http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2015/11/06/1483789631--639706738.pdf

Referring to Melewar’s annual report, one can see the total throughput in tons of HRC processed as 73 ton / annum with the last qtr reaching 20 ton/qtr at 55% of its rated capacity, refer Link 2 Section ‘1.3 Steel Tube Operations’ on Table 4. My estimation for 2016 based on the reported revenue of RM 206M for the Steel Tube segment alone comes to approximately ~ 90 ton /annum of Scrap based HRC processed.

Link 2: Melewar Annual Report:

http://www.melewar-mig.com/investorsinfo_cmmsg.html

Note that Scrap based HRC which is cheaper can only be used for such Tube segments unlike for Car Manufacturing application and other higher quality CRC making which requires Iron Ore based HRC. So it is important to note that only Scrap based HRC users in the market stand to gain and not the Iron ore based HRC users unlike what ‘SuperInvestor’ had highlighted vaguely for steel manufacturers, due to Megasteel closure.

Another one good example of beneficiary is Choo Bee who uses Scrap Based HRC for its Manufacturing section. Mycron’s Iron ore based HRC are sourced internationally for its CRC making segment, refer Link 2 section 1.2 Cold Rolled operation 2nd paragraph after Table 3. The expected gain on the Iron Based CRC making segment is beyond this article’s scope as we are only concern on Megasteel closure impact.



(B) Now let us determine realistically what would be the reduction on the cost of Scrap Based HRC when sourced externally, now that Megasteel is closed?

Of course we have to assume now, the Duty imposed for import of HRC will be removed as it does not make sense to retain it as there is no longer anyone to be protect for. To get an idea, we should find out what was the duty imposed. Please refer Melewar’s annual report under section 1.5 paragraph number 9. It says the existing import duty is 15%.

Link 2:

http://www.melewar-mig.com/investorsinfo_cmmsg.html

Note that Megasteel had demised while 'gasping' for an additional 40% duty to restrict the cheaper HRC supply from China (makes me wonder how big the price difference was from external source! smiley )

Using an estimated cost of HRC from WealthWizard publishing earlier – link 3 below as RM 1600 per ton, the duty value of 15% translates to 15% x RM 1600 per ton as ~ RM 240 per ton.

Link 3:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103812.jsp

Further note that as per below news from TheEdge dated 13 June, Megasteel is charging a premium of RM 400 – 500 per ton for the Scrap Based HRC – refer Link 4.

Link 4:

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/81555

Using the above 2 information, and conservatively placing a 50% discount to cater the market dynamics to reach an equilibrium, we can safely say that the Scrap Based HRC users will at least benefit by RM 250 per ton by externally sourcing their Scrap Based HRC. (Frankly speaking I don’t see any reason why they could not save as being claimed by Mr Tan).



(C) Now let us see the impact on the bottom line for Mycron, by multiplying the throughput above of `73 ton/annum by the Savings of RM 250 / ton and the Tax rate of 25% to obtain: PAT of 18.3 Million per annum.

This translates to additional EPS of 5.0 cents on top of the normalized EPS of 22.4 cents based on the Projected next 4Q net profits of 63.3M by WealthWizard as per below article earlier:


soonadol
21 posts

Posted by soonadol > May 13, 2017 11:47 PM | Report Abuse

Hi @probability sifu. From where did you calculate that YKGI's gross profit margin has risen to 15.6%? YKGI's latest quarter report format seems different compared to the previous quarter report.


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 14, 2017 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

soonadol, you can work back on the COGS of YKGI on latest quarter based on S&A cost and Depreciation used in the preceeding qtr.

You can obtain the S&A cost on preceeding qtr by subtracting the Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS with the EBITDA derived from Operating Proft + Depreciation.


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 14, 2017 10:38 AM | Report Abuse

I am compelled to believe the same minimum 7% (15.6 - 8.7) margin improvement on Mycron's gross profit because the CRC section gross profit of Mycron had actually shrunk by half when the steel price in China started to rise rapidly late last year - disabling Mycron to reflect the gain from Megasteel closure.

By assuming its CRC gross profit Margin returns to its normal level, it exactly matches this 7% rise.

Note that CRC section gross profit margin had terribly dipped from its norm earlier and it was the improvement in Steel Tube segment that had counter acted this effects to maintain its earnings.


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 14, 2017 5:39 PM | Report Abuse

one can have a very clear comparison of gross margin between Mycron, YKGI etc before Megasteel closure here:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103812.jsp

Note that currently the Steel Tube segment is expanding rapidly - Choo Bee is a proof.

The extensive compression on its CRC segment margin is slowly reverting to the mean....as can be seen on YKGI's latest qtr results.


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 14, 2017 5:44 PM | Report Abuse

Refer Table 6 on WealthWizard's article on Sales & Cost of sales to derive their old gross profit margins.


soonadol
21 posts

Posted by soonadol > May 14, 2017 6:25 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks probability!


hueyyng27
290 posts

Posted by hueyyng27 > May 16, 2017 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

resting before flying again


Yipman
366 posts

Posted by Yipman > May 16, 2017 11:39 AM | Report Abuse

Hmm... 0.9 is still cheap. It's time to top up now before the next QR announcement in 10 more days. Expected good result.


Newest
3 posts

Posted by Newest > May 16, 2017 9:12 PM | Report Abuse

Y keep drop recently


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 17, 2017 4:56 PM | Report Abuse

im collecting just ready to rebound back


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 17, 2017 5:03 PM | Report Abuse

if the price above 0.90 it should be ok..just a correction before fly again


bleuerouge
2683 posts

Posted by bleuerouge > May 17, 2017 11:19 PM | Report Abuse

yes, 50% correction done, support well absorb today. I guess rebound could start tomorrow but let us see how it goes in the morning. I'm looking for the right re-entry.


paktua73
8924 posts

Posted by paktua73 > May 19, 2017 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

Q waiting sell at .925 hope get today oldman to old to wait for any higher ha ha lai lai..


paktua73
8924 posts

Posted by paktua73 > May 19, 2017 2:50 PM | Report Abuse

Done here profit a bit earn here will dump all at iwcity ha ha oldman know some n will earn in new land ha ha oldman dare to burn to big earn


LilyLL
639 posts

Posted by LilyLL > May 19, 2017 2:57 PM | Report Abuse

0.930 block cannot break


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 19, 2017 3:13 PM | Report Abuse

if can break 0.93 it will go higher maybe 0.960


bleuerouge
2683 posts

Posted by bleuerouge > May 19, 2017 3:17 PM | Report Abuse

nice mycron, hopefully can breakthrough 95c so we will fly very far north


lingling66
382 posts

Posted by lingling66 > May 19, 2017 3:18 PM | Report Abuse

should kept till report out by this month end??


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 19, 2017 3:21 PM | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/18/press-metals-earnings-soar-on-higher-output-and-prices/#lZ7B4cMKgx79jb39.01


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 19, 2017 3:29 PM | Report Abuse

masteel up, pmetal up, mycron also up hehe


Wai Hoe Chai
37 posts

Posted by Wai Hoe Chai > May 19, 2017 5:47 PM | Report Abuse

look at the choobee QR result, compare to mycron result before, foresee mycron can hav very good QR result also.


CanCan168
65 posts

Posted by CanCan168 > May 19, 2017 5:56 PM | Report Abuse

Between mycron and choo bee which will give better dividen and kikiki price.....


tan8620
38 posts

Posted by tan8620 > May 19, 2017 7:58 PM | Report Abuse

hopefully next week can pass 95 sen and cheong to 1.00


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 21, 2017 12:17 AM | Report Abuse

look like cup n handle pattern when reaching 1.00 it will breakout higher..maybe 1.2 or 1.4 just hold


LilyLL
639 posts

Posted by LilyLL > May 21, 2017 11:26 AM | Report Abuse

Qr result out good new Monday Mycron will breakout hiigher


probability
10746 posts

Posted by probability > May 21, 2017 1:33 PM | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600123207.jsp


bleuerouge
2683 posts

Posted by bleuerouge > May 22, 2017 9:09 AM | Report Abuse

fly fly fly


bleuerouge
2683 posts

Posted by bleuerouge > May 22, 2017 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

manyak senyummmmm


Yipman
366 posts

Posted by Yipman > May 22, 2017 11:03 AM | Report Abuse

This is still an undervalue gem that generating profits consistently. I decide to sai lang with Mycron today.


bleuerouge
2683 posts

Posted by bleuerouge > May 22, 2017 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

TP1 110c...go go mycron


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 22, 2017 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

collect2 0.97/0.975 hehe


gcke
1180 posts

Posted by gcke > May 22, 2017 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

Presently,the steel counters are very bullish.Their earnings also support for the price uptrend.Expect the show to last for awhile.Cheers.


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 22, 2017 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

clear 0.980 gogogo to the sky


6044
94 posts

Posted by 6044 > May 22, 2017 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

Last few q results good but couldnt fly higher probably was dragged down by Melewar. If coming q result again good and also Melewar improving or turn around with good result, guys what do you think ?


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 22, 2017 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

collect2 0.980/0.985


Frederick Foo
273 posts

Posted by Frederick Foo > May 22, 2017 11:58 AM | Report Abuse

break 1.000 already! Keep going!


mastertrader
331 posts

Posted by mastertrader > May 22, 2017 12:12 PM | Report Abuse

congrats to all mycron holder nice one hehe


white marubozu
6 posts

Posted by white marubozu > May 22, 2017 1:59 PM | Report Abuse

fly fly fly...


hueyyng27
290 posts

Posted by hueyyng27 > May 22, 2017 3:47 PM | Report Abuse

hold since 0.815, more uptrend is coming. Congrats those who hold tight since the lowest of 0.74 a month a go


Yipman
366 posts

Posted by Yipman > May 22, 2017 4:07 PM | Report Abuse

Choobee gap up handsomely today after the good QR announced last Friday. So excited Mycron would have the same.


ChasingDreamz
472 posts

Posted by ChasingDreamz > May 22, 2017 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

happy lettew


tan8620
38 posts

Posted by tan8620 > May 22, 2017 5:09 PM | Report Abuse

sentiment still bullish...all eye on the coming qr...

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