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4,464 comment(s). Last comment by T800Terminator at Jan 6, 2020 10:14 PM
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calvintaneng
32226 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 24, 2018 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

Long steel news
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/170930.jsp


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 24, 2018 6:07 PM | Report Abuse

Graphite Electrodes

(A) Introduction
The electric arc furnace method recycles used iron scrap by melting it in an electric arc furnace. It is the graphite electrodes inside the furnace that actually melt the iron. Graphite has high thermal conductivity and is very resistant to heat and impact. It also has low electrical resistance, which means it can conduct the large electrical currents needed to melt iron.

(B) Cost
There are 3 different type of graphite electrodes (UHP, HP and NP).

For case study, I will use HP (high performance/high power) graphite electrode to study the cost % for steel making. 1MT of steel making requires about 0.3-0.4% or 3-4kg of graphite electrodes.

HP graphite electrode cost:
At beginning of year 2018, it from about RMB79,000/MT rose to about RMB 119,000MT for Jan-Feb 2018 and then dropped to about RMB 69,000 during Apr-Jun 2018. So for this coming qtr the graphite electrodes cost is reduced as what I said in earlier post.
http://www.chinaccm.com/27/20180508/272102_4871802.shtml

I will use diameter about 400mm to 600mm for the case study.

So the cost of HP graphite electrodes is RMB 69,000/MT x 0.62 = MYR 42,780/MT for Apr to Jun 2018.

Assumes revenue for this coming qtr is about 850,000,000 and the average selling price is about MYR 2,400/MT, then the sales volume will be 354,000 MT or 354,000,000 kg.

I had used previous year corresponding qtr result to compare and this had come a conclusion that when selling price is about 1,900-2000/MT then this is only to cover about the cost of sales. So assume the COS point at 1,950/MT. So cost of sales will be around 354,000 MT x 1,950 = 690,300,000.

So what is the cost % of graphite electrodes used ?

354,000 MT requires 1,062 MT graphite electrodes (354,000 x 0.3%). The cost in graphite electrodes is 1,062MT x MYR 42,780 = 45,432,360

The % of graphite electrodes is 45,432,360 / 690,300,000 = 6.6%.

(3) Is this correlation of graphite electrodes cost versus ASP of steel products

In conclusion:
ASP: MYR 1,950 - 2,250
Graphite electrode cost % is about 2-3.5%

ASP: MYR 2,250 - 2,450
Graphite electrode cost % is about 5.5-7.5%

ASP: MYR 2,450 - 2,650
Graphite electrode cost % is about 9.5-11.5%

(4) Graphite electrodes cost trend

At current state, graphite cost will be around this level, but may inch higher towards year end or beginning of next year and this is in correlation to ASP of steel products.

WHAT I NEED TO SAY IS AS LONG ASP IS ABOUT 2,250 ABOVE THEN THERE IS A PROFIT WHEN SELLING PRICE IS ABOUT 2,550 AND ABOVE, THEN DAMN GOOD PROFIT FOR STEEL COMPANIES. BESIDES GRAPHITE ELECTRODES COST HAD BEEN REDUCED ABOUT 40% COMPARED TO 1ST QTR.


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 24, 2018 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

For this coming qtr …. compared to previous qtr

ASP: dropped by 5-8%
Cost of graphite: dropped by 35-40%
Scrap iron: dropped by 10-12%

So the bottomline …. will still be a good profit ….. hopefully not wrong …….


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 24, 2018 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

4 steel companies if need to compare (please note that I will use PE ratio of 5 as this is to cater for 2020 the import tariff for China imported steel products to be removed and the mega project may start from 2020/2021 which may require imported steel products):

1) Ssteel: TP is about 2.50-3.00 with stable profit provided ASP is at high side.
2) Lionind: dragged by Parkson result ... hopefully not till 2020 …. but there is a potential ….
3) Masteel: current share price close to fair value price using PE ratio of 5, to me not attractive.
4) Annjoo: No comment.

So, please add into your watchlist for Ssteel. haha, just nonsense sharing since my personal view is bias.

So any dip on share price, quickly go to buy …… but at your own risk ….


Icon8888
212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 24, 2018 6:37 PM | Report Abuse

as expected, weak qtr


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 24, 2018 6:40 PM | Report Abuse

still within my expectation for this qtr. close to my expectation and ASP also dropped by single digit. Need to study, will come back later.


Kyou
1167 posts

Posted by Kyou > Aug 24, 2018 6:44 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5665

Net Profit = 35,205
EPS = 8.12


Kyou
1167 posts

Posted by Kyou > Aug 24, 2018 6:45 PM | Report Abuse

UP 532% @@


OTB
6849 posts

Posted by OTB > Aug 24, 2018 6:46 PM | Report Abuse

Ssteel result is out.
Compared Q4 2018 against Q4 2017, the result is good.
I expect Q1 2019 even better.

I hope good quarter results from Masteel and Lionind.

Thank you.
Ooi


ming
1217 posts

Posted by ming > Aug 24, 2018 6:49 PM | Report Abuse

Fulamak.. hope koonkoon is not here yet


ramada
3823 posts

Posted by ramada > Aug 24, 2018 6:51 PM | Report Abuse

Not bad, above expectation.
https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5665


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 24, 2018 6:54 PM | Report Abuse

Ssteel inventory:

Q3: 779,858,000
Q4 (this qtr): 842,202,000

So what you to expect Jul-Sep'18 revenue and profit with ASP about 2,550-2,650?

ASP price will up 15%
Sales volume will also up …..

Buy next Monday …. don't fight with me for buying up …. haha


apolloang
13865 posts

Posted by apolloang > Aug 24, 2018 6:54 PM | Report Abuse

not bad,1.80 on mon?


huahtai98
570 posts

Posted by huahtai98 > Aug 24, 2018 7:27 PM | Report Abuse

This stock is grossly undervalued....
Idiots have managed to sell it down so far.


ming
1217 posts

Posted by ming > Aug 24, 2018 7:46 PM | Report Abuse

No much retailer yet.. full with potential


albert787378
91 posts

Posted by albert787378 > Aug 24, 2018 7:48 PM | Report Abuse

this latest quarterly result is so good.the share price can only go in one direction.it is north.


Fortuneman
83 posts

Posted by Fortuneman > Aug 24, 2018 8:00 PM | Report Abuse

EPS is lower compare to last qr..


OTB
6849 posts

Posted by OTB > Aug 24, 2018 8:04 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Teck Ng > Aug 24, 2018 06:53 PM | Report Abuse

quite good result, but inventory like too high

Ans :
I believe the management does not want to report higher profit.
Keep some for next quarter.
Inventory can be sold easily to convert to revenue.
My opinion only. No solid proof.
Thank you.
Ooi


OTB
6849 posts

Posted by OTB > Aug 24, 2018 8:06 PM | Report Abuse

I follow international accounting rule,
compared Q4 2018 against Q4 2017, the result is good.
I hope I am not wrong.
Please note that I am not an accountant.
Thank you.
Ooi


trulyinvest
2384 posts

Posted by trulyinvest > Aug 24, 2018 8:12 PM | Report Abuse

Sell when good px. Next few quarters confirm miss expectation


Fortuneman
83 posts

Posted by Fortuneman > Aug 24, 2018 9:37 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Ooi,
By comparing muda latest Qr to their 2017 same Qr result. The result is better, but ppl still throw like making loss..some comments said their previous qr eps higher so can’t consider good result. Thus share price drop..


Up_down
3678 posts

Posted by Up_down > Aug 24, 2018 9:52 PM | Report Abuse

People can get excited easily when the company has reported a better QR during bull run. Nowadays, people look into every detail to make sure.....anymore realistic dreams in next few Qtr.


Icon8888
212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 24, 2018 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

hope keep droping


KLCI King
3041 posts

Posted by KLCI King > Aug 25, 2018 1:51 AM | Report Abuse

Result is ok, but is it enough to drive the price up? Let's not put so much hope on the price movement, realistic better than optimistic at the current market conditions.


wilson2017
171 posts

Posted by wilson2017 > Aug 25, 2018 2:50 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/440256


wilson2017
171 posts

Posted by wilson2017 > Aug 25, 2018 2:50 PM | Report Abuse

马哈迪前天接受《当今大马》专访时澄清,与中国领导人商谈只是设下基调,但东铁和SSER油气管工程是否取消、延期或以其他方式解决,则尚未确定。


albert787378
91 posts

Posted by albert787378 > Aug 25, 2018 2:53 PM | Report Abuse

the share price will move up in tandem with lionind.trust me on this.sentiment is good for steel stocks.


huahtai98
570 posts

Posted by huahtai98 > Aug 25, 2018 6:00 PM | Report Abuse

Mahathir is seeking low interest Yen loans to settle the high interest Renminbi loans...sign off the Chinese and sign in the Japs at a much lower cost...the projects will resume....just wait.


ming
1217 posts

Posted by ming > Aug 26, 2018 5:00 AM | Report Abuse

I wonder ppl compare directly this qr with last qr then claim that margin drop alot.
Think about seasonal effect la..
Go see annjoo/ssteel last financial year then u know this happen every year during raya period..

For me, this result is well above my expectation


value88
638 posts

Posted by value88 > Aug 26, 2018 9:29 AM | Report Abuse

Lower earnings QoQ is expected long before the quarterly report comes out. It was due to lower average selling price and lower demand during Ramadan holidays. Many sources have revealed this info, nothing surprise about this Q's earnings.
We should look into July-Sept'18 quarter to find out local steel price 's movement in July-Sept'18 and its demand. From here, we can estimate the earning potential of SSteel in near future.


trulyinvest
2384 posts

Posted by trulyinvest > Aug 26, 2018 9:31 AM | Report Abuse

Sell when good px b4 too late if u wait for few more quarters


value88
638 posts

Posted by value88 > Aug 26, 2018 9:31 AM | Report Abuse

LionInd, AnnJoo will also report lower QoQ earnings, so don't be surprised when the report comes out.
For Masteel, I suppose it will report much lower earnings QoQ because it will suffer high forex loss.


trulyinvest
2384 posts

Posted by trulyinvest > Aug 26, 2018 9:33 AM | Report Abuse

Next few q wint b good. Sell b4 too late


Star8888
207 posts

Posted by Star8888 > Aug 26, 2018 6:11 PM | Report Abuse

Please note that there is tax return 9.091 Mils for this quarter, if not this tax return, the net profit is just around 24 to 25 Mils, not 35.2 Mils. Therefore you can see that PBT 26.38 Mils is less than net profit 35.2 Mils. If you deduct the tax return, do you think 24 to 25 Mils is good or bad quarter result? Please decide yourself.


4444
1666 posts

Posted by 4444 > Aug 26, 2018 7:39 PM | Report Abuse

2nd qtrs falling profit. Follow KYY Golden Rule must sell?


ming
1217 posts

Posted by ming > Aug 26, 2018 10:44 PM | Report Abuse

Trulyinvest so u agree this qr is good?


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 27, 2018 10:04 AM | Report Abuse

Last call to buy below 1.80 ....


Lim Tek Wai
2386 posts

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > Aug 27, 2018 10:16 AM | Report Abuse

This stock become stronger and stronger, worth to invest


Jack888
393 posts

Posted by Jack888 > Aug 27, 2018 10:17 AM | Report Abuse

Buy more to accumulate...consider cheap


EngineeringProfit
7184 posts

Posted by EngineeringProfit > Aug 27, 2018 10:17 AM | Report Abuse

Interesting......


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 27, 2018 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

Trust me …. I gave you reason …

Next Qtr:
1) ASP increase a lot
2) Inventory increase a lot
3) Scrap materials cost maintain (there is one reason why scrap materials cost being maintained even cost increase in coming qtr ….. this one I disclose later)

Just buy …… For TA part, this is the bottom, will anytime boost up, 1TP will be 2.20 …..

Buy, because this few days are last accumulation phase that collects the stake between 1.70 - 1.90+ ….. anytime will eat up as fast as possible


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 27, 2018 11:02 AM | Report Abuse

Just concentrate on Ssteel counter, forgot other first, there are reasons, next qtr result the best is Ssteel ….

Anyway, my bias view. Don't trust anybody in the market even though I not charged 5,000 fee, some more free.


Jasper Coo
2178 posts

Posted by Jasper Coo > Aug 27, 2018 11:11 AM | Report Abuse

Price will gap up this morning, good luck to all and enjoy the rollercoaster.... hehe


davidkkw79
4378 posts

Posted by davidkkw79 > Aug 27, 2018 1:10 PM | Report Abuse

.... why price didn't up lei ?


Albukhary
1420 posts

Posted by Albukhary > Aug 27, 2018 7:24 PM | Report Abuse

Windcloud, I totally agreed with your point. The ASP and Inventory increase together, next quarter will be KABOOM... Minimum RM60mil profit..


windcloud
1390 posts

Posted by windcloud > Aug 27, 2018 8:21 PM | Report Abuse

good for having Albukhary support. Road is not lonely ….. one day, this ssteel forum will be hot like kopitiam like huaan like lionind ….

Need to wait 2 more steel counters result out, then Ssteel might be can get more people's attention …. then the 100 meter run will start from the fair beginning among 4 steel counters but this time Ssteel may lead the 100 meter run ….. nonsense talking again …


ming
1217 posts

Posted by ming > Aug 28, 2018 2:00 AM | Report Abuse

Ya.. earning exceed the earlier king - annjoo jor.
If share price can exceed lagi best.. hehe


freddiehero
9878 posts

Posted by freddiehero > Aug 28, 2018 5:57 AM | Report Abuse

wil reach 1.50 ?


Jack888
393 posts

Posted by Jack888 > Aug 28, 2018 6:15 AM | Report Abuse

Dow Jones 26,049.641 +259.29 1.01%


trulyinvest
2384 posts

Posted by trulyinvest > Aug 28, 2018 7:14 AM | Report Abuse

Got court case. Bcareful

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