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789 comment(s). Last comment by dusti at Feb 17, 2019 03:07 PM
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Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 12, 2019 01:16 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/01/12/eyes-on-mbm-as-auto-sector-poised-for-a-rebound-mbm-poised-to-ride-on-recovery-in-auto-sector/


Joseph
37 posts

Posted by Joseph > Jan 15, 2019 09:31 AM | Report Abuse

oh new perodua is out for test drive? nice


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Jan 16, 2019 06:10 AM | Report Abuse

Perodua just officially launch the new SUV Aruz yesterday.

The SUV has already 2,200 bookings. Management is targeting to sell around 2000- 2500 units per month (total annual target of 30,000 units) which will increase Perodua sales by more than 10% when compared to FY18 target sales of 209,000 cars (even that was achieved in Nov. New target should be around at least 225,000 units). In general the SUV should deliver a higher profit margin when compared to its other offering. This would benefit MBMR directly given its exposure to Perodua via its 22.6% equity interest.

Given the RM145mil profit target for FY18 (9m18 is already RM106mil), MBMR should be able to reach a profit to shareholder of around RM160mil in FY19 (an improvement of around 10%) backed by:

1) Sales and profit of the new SUV Aruz which as mentioned above will add more than 10% to Perodua annual sales.

2) Turnaround of alloy wheel manufacturing which will see an increased in production from the new Perodua SUV but more importantly the collaboration with China's biggest alloy wheel manufacturer Citic Dicastal. MBMR will help produce alloy wheels for Citic for its European market.

3) Still high demand of the new Myvi as shown by the Oct and Nov 18 sales (hopefully Dec as well).

4) The launch of the all new revamp Alza expected in 2H19.

At the current share price, the company is only being valued at a forward PE of 6.1x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x.

Regards


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 17, 2019 04:43 AM | Report Abuse

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/5983_MBMR/pt/MIDF/5983_MBMR_MIDF_2019-01-16_BUY_3.80_MBM%20Resources%20-%20Cheapest%20Proxy%20to%20Perodua%20TIV%20Expansion_-303948875.pdf


megatti_maf
13 posts

Posted by megatti_maf > Jan 17, 2019 05:06 PM | Report Abuse

Touched 1B market cap today.


ChanZheKang
32 posts

Posted by ChanZheKang > Jan 17, 2019 05:10 PM | Report Abuse

mbm expected 3.0 by end of this month? better hold on then


tonychuan1994
10 posts

Posted by tonychuan1994 > Jan 17, 2019 06:07 PM | Report Abuse

Just saw the news today.
Will go in tmr


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 17, 2019 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

Can aim higher

RM4 by year end


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Jan 19, 2019 01:12 AM | Report Abuse

Guys,

Some updates on MBMR.

It seems that management had decided to sell off the loss-making alloy wheel business instead of trying to turn it around via collaboration with Citic Dicastal which is actually a better decision for MBMR’s shareholders. Reason being:

1) The disposal of the business would improve MBMR’s future profit since it is still currently generating losses to the group in FY18 albeit at a lower level compared to previous years. Even with the collaboration with Citic, management was only expecting for the operation to either breakeven or post small profit.

2) Any sales of the business would most probably result in a gain on disposal for the company given that most of the investment has already been impaired in the company’s balance sheet.

3) The disposal will free up more cash in the future that could potentially be used to reward shareholders by paying higher dividends.

Total Perodua car sales in 4Q18 was at 59,040 units which is a growth of 10.8% vs 4Q17 and 15.5% vs 3Q18. This brings the total Perodua car sales in FY18 to 227,243 units which beats management official target (of 209k cars) by 8.7%. With this result, the company should be able to deliver a core profit to shareholders of around RM145mil to RM150mil for 2018.

As mentioned previously, growth in FY19 would be driven by the still high sales of new Myvi, the 30k units target sales of the new SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. With these, MBMR is expected to deliver a profit to shareholder of around RM160mil to RM165mil in FY19.

Regards and have a nice long weekend.


megatti_maf
13 posts

Posted by megatti_maf > Jan 22, 2019 09:07 AM | Report Abuse

Morning. Read the article on the edge over the weekend on the disposal of aloy wheel plant. Wonder how much if the profit jump after the disposal?


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Jan 22, 2019 10:06 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Megatti,

If you look at segmental reporting of 3Q18 result you would see that the total PBT of the auto parts manufacturing segment amounted to RM3.3mil. Excluding the result from associates (Hino Motors Manufacturing) and JV (Autolive Hirotako), the remaining auto component business actually recorded a loss of around RM9.1mil. This represent a combined contribution from both Hirotako Holdings and Oriental Metal Industries (of which the alloy wheel business is park under).

From my understanding, Hirotako has always been able to deliver profit to MBMR which means that the minimum losses from OMI should be around RM9.1mil of which mainly comes from the alloy wheel business (Here I am assuming Hirotako contribute a minimum of RM0 to the company’s PBT). Based on this, we can assume that OMI losses to MBMR should be at least around RM10 mil for the full year of FY18.

If management decides to sell the alloy wheel business, investors can expect the profit of MBMR to increase by at least RM10mil once the disposal takes place. Using the target profit of RM145mil in FY18 before disposal, MBMR profit for FY18 could be higher at around RM155mil. If management managed to disposes of the business in FY19, I expect the full year profit for the year to increase from the original projected profit of RM160mil to RM170mil. This would mean at the current price, MBMR is actually only trading a PE valuation of less than 6x vs the industry average of 15x PE.

Regards.


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Jan 22, 2019 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

Hi megatti,

Kenanga however actually estimates the losses from alloy wheel at rm23 -26 ml per annum. So for them, the earning boost from the disposal will be a lot higher than my own assumptions.

Regards.


Hafid
309 posts

Posted by Hafid > Jan 22, 2019 10:31 AM | Report Abuse

the Nav/share is RM3.88


yongch
855 posts

Posted by yongch > Jan 22, 2019 01:45 PM | Report Abuse

Hahaha....now started so many high look expect this counter...ok la jus waiting for 3.0 then let your big players continues lo....kikiki...every day so shiok looking at slowly climbing up up up!!!!tp3.0!!!!Chinese New Year Ang Pow around the corner ..Huat ah!Heng Ah!!Ong Ah!!!!


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 23, 2019 07:20 PM | Report Abuse

MBM gives angpao

3 Sen dividend

Thank you commonsense for the excellent pick


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Jan 24, 2019 06:27 AM | Report Abuse

Hi icon8888,

Hopefully the company can pay higher dividend in FY19 given the better profit projection for FY19 (driven by the performance of Perodua) and the potential disposal of the alloy wheel business. In previous financial years, cash were needed to invest more on the alloy wheel plant (to improve its efficiency) and also to pay off most of the company's debt. The company is currently at a net cash position after having reduce debt to only RM193mil from RM416mil back in FY14.

The potential disposal of the alloy wheel business will definitely create more free cash (due to lower working capital requirement and lower capex spending) for the company which could be used to reward its shareholders by higher dividend payment.

Regards


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 24, 2019 06:58 AM | Report Abuse

Perodua eyes 4% rise in annual sales after record 2018
BY EMIR ZAINUL
KUALA LUMPUR: Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Pero- dua) wants to score another year of record sales in 2019 — with a 4% increase in sales to 231,000 units — after it achieved its best annual sales tally of 227,243 units last year.
Perodua president and chief executive o cer Datuk Zainal Abi- din Ahmad said the improvement will be driven by the Myvi and the newly introduced Aruz.
“Perodua’s aim to boost its sales by 4% this year will not only strengthen the brand but offer some relief to the Malaysian car industry, which is forecast to grow very minimally this year,” he said during the company’s Chinese New Year luncheon with the me- dia yesterday.

(The Edge)


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 24, 2019 06:59 AM | Report Abuse

No slow down expected this year despite absence of tax holiday


BULL1000BEAR1000
306 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Jan 24, 2019 05:55 PM | Report Abuse

Myvi engine fit in Aruz! Are you serious? Selling for 70+k lagi hahahaha. Let's also have a look at the Underpowered Avanza.


sell
1466 posts

Posted by sell > Jan 24, 2019 09:48 PM | Report Abuse

Dividend 3 sen despite share up so much? Better sell on news.


Dylan Yong Hua Tai
211 posts

Posted by Dylan Yong Hua Tai > Jan 28, 2019 01:23 PM | Report Abuse

Bull,... Avanza, Vios, Myvi, Aruz all use same engine. ... sama biji.
So if you buy Avanza actually same as Myvi 1.5.... hahah


mneo
449 posts

Posted by mneo > Feb 6, 2019 08:48 AM | Report Abuse

Gong Xi Fa Cai....Happy CNY to everyone...:-)


money888
402 posts

Posted by money888 > Feb 6, 2019 08:56 AM | Report Abuse


MBMR has been trading above its upward sloping 20-Day Moving Average which is a good sign. In addition, the price just broke the resistance of 2.38 reinforcing the bullishness in the recent price movement. This breakout was accompanied by a higher than average traded volume which shows the enthusiasm of the traders to push the price higher and past this resistance hence giving a higher probability of a successful breakout.
https://au.i3investor.com/blogs/aux/2904.jsp


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 7, 2019 10:32 AM | Report Abuse

Saw an Aruz on the street. Quite handsome. Should sell well.


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 7, 2019 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2019/01/31/1509832573--1989443369.pdf


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 7, 2019 08:41 PM | Report Abuse

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v1cFRZIqmKQ#fauxfullscreen


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Feb 9, 2019 09:57 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Guys,

Some update on Perodua (indirectly MBMR). Perodua started out the year with a very encouraging sales of 20,100 cars in January 2019 which is an improvement of 13.6% vs January 2018 sales of 17,700. Aruz sales number for its first month was at 1,025 units which could have been a lot higher if not for the delay in the registration process. This issue has since been resolve. Recent bookings numbers for the new SUV is at 8,000 units which very encouraging. Sales of the SUV should pick up pace starting in February.

4Q18 result is expected to be out by the end of this month. Hopefully with the total Perodua sales of 59,040 cars during the quarter (an improvement of 10.8% vs 4Q17 sales of 53,307 units), MBMR could post a 4Q18 profit to shareholders of around RM40mil to bring the total FY18 profit to RM145mil. At the current share price, the company would only be valued at 6.9x PE.

Currently, MBMR is still consider as a “loss making” company (even though core operations are actually profitable) under some investment platforms like Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters, bursamarketplace and even i3investors due to the large impairment exercises made in 4Q17. This is because the platforms depend on reported earnings which would include one off items and non-operational items like gain/loss on disposal, impairment, fair value gains etc when compiling data performance of a company.

This has limited the appeal of MBMR to some of the investors as they would think that the company is a loss-making company. With the expected 4Q18 result, MBMR would officially be taken out of the “loss making” or “negative PE” categories and hopefully would invite more investors to look at MBMR.

Regards


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 9, 2019 04:48 PM | Report Abuse

They target to sell 30,000 Aruz this year , right ?

Now after one month launch already 8,000


VenFx
10656 posts

Posted by VenFx > Feb 9, 2019 06:24 PM | Report Abuse

Appreciates for Icon8888's bro kindness in delivery on time facts from his observation .


Lim Tek Wai
2375 posts

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > Feb 12, 2019 09:48 AM | Report Abuse

so just hold on and pray?


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Feb 12, 2019 10:56 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Lim,

I would not worry too much in terms of MBMR financial performance going forward. 4Q18 is expected to deliver good results driven by Perodua car sales numbers (refer to my earlier post).

In January, Perodua managed to only deliver 1,025 Aruz mainly due to delays in registration process. Bookings as of Jan for Aruz was 8,000 units. The issue has been solve. As of today, a total of 4,000 Aruz has already been delivered. I would expect better car sales numbers in Feb.

As mentioned earlier, FY19 growth would mainly be driven by growth in Perodua sales of which Aruz will contribute to a better profit margin mix to Perodua and indirectly MBMR. My target profit to shareholder for FY19 is RM170mil which would meant at the current price the company is only being valued at a mere 5.7x PE.

If the company managed to disposed off the Alloy wheel business, expect a further boost in profit by at least RM15-20mil per year post disposal. More importantly the more free cash that the company would have post disposal (from less working capital needs) which could be used to reward shareholders by better dividend payment. There should not be any more impairments for the business given that the remaining asset value (RM35mil as of Dec 17) for the alloy wheel is mainly related to the land value (which normally you don't impair). All the major impairments were done back in FY17.

Regards,


Icon8888
16212 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 12, 2019 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

Gongxifacai commonsense

very grateful for your MBM Buy Call

benefited a lot of people


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Feb 12, 2019 12:24 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Icon,

Gongxifacai to you too. Hopefully after the 4Q18 result, market will start to take notice of MBMR.

Too cheap for a company that has exposure to Perodua. Just look at UMW, the other company with exposure to Perodua. They are trading at more than double to that of MBMR.

Anyway, hope you make a lot of money this year.

Good luck.


qqq3
8229 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 12, 2019 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

what about E&O ?


commonsense
331 posts

Posted by commonsense > Feb 13, 2019 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

Hi qqq3,

I actually made a comment on E&O back in January. But it was mostly on its valuation. Back then it was trading at around RM1.07 or a market cap of more than RM1.4bil which i thought was a bit on the high side given it's earnings outlook for FY20 (projected profit of around RM70mil). At that price it would have translated to a fwd PE of 20.7x which is a lot higher than the average property industry PE.

Just like most other property companies, E&O is currently trading at a discount to its book value. That being said, if you still like to have exposure to the property industry, i think you can find better value companies at the moment. As an example, there is a property developer in Klang Valley that is also trading at below 0.5x PB just like E&O. However, the company balance sheet is a lot stronger, with cash that represent 25% of the company's market cap and with zero debt. Some of the lands in the company's book has not been revalued for more than 20 years with market value estimate to be more than 10x what it recorded in the books. There are even some property companies that currently trading at below 5x PE and below 0.5x PB albeit at a market cap that is a lot lower compared to E&O. Most of the value property companies are in the mid and small cap.

I was a bit surprise with the company announcement of the right issue exercise as i thought any future funding can be done via the sales of assets/ reclaim lands. Anyway, if you decide to buy into E&O today, i would advice you to subscribe to the right issue to prevent any future dilution and also be able to benefit from the issuance of the free warrants. Given the minimum target amount to be raised from the exercises is RM250mil and the and assuming the private placement can raised 10% of the current market cap (translating to around RM130mil), the right issue will need to raise around RM120mil. This means you will need to be prepared for an additional cash investment of at least RM0.09 per share (based on the 4 ordinary shares to 1 rights, the price of the rights would be RM0.37 per rights). Basically if you buy the stock at RM0.85 today, you will need to prepare another 9 sens for your future right issue subscription. Which means your total investment into E&O is actually RM0.94. Again this is based on the minimum case scenario. The maximum case is for the company to raised up to RM550 mil, again assuming the private placement raises RM130mil, this would mean the right issue needs to raise around RM420mil. This translate to an additional RM0.32 per share (or right issue at a price of RM1.28 based on 4 ordinary shares to 1 right issue ratio). This would mean your total investment of E&O is actually RM 1.17 per share.

However to entice investors to subscribe to the right issue, most of the time the company need to price the right issue at a discount to the price of the ordinary share ( if not people might not want to subscribe). Assuming the price of the shares ends up at around RM0.90 before the price fixing date, and assuming a discount of around 10%, i would assume the most optimum case is for the company to fixed the right issue price at around RM0.80 (the company would end up raising around RM400mil of cash from both the PP and RI exercises). This would mean you need to prepare an additional RM0.20 per share of your original investment of RM0.85 bring your total investment in E&O to RM1.05.

In conclusion, you need to make sure to prepare at least 20 sens extra per share for you to subscribe to the right issue.

Sorry for the long post. Hope you understand it.

Good luck.


qqq3
8229 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 13, 2019 12:07 PM | Report Abuse

sense...


RI 1 for 4 is ok....not like Sapura 4 for 1.....

If it does not work out, I will go the distance, maybe average down a few days later.....if it works out , I may sell....RI with warrants....makes good sense to me....

I do not want exposures to properties per se......other property shares with better BV/ price no interest.....reputation is more valuable than BV. Some investments in E&O ok one......


anyway....I am looking for more details......thanks.....


commonsense_
5 posts

Posted by commonsense_ > Feb 13, 2019 12:20 PM | Report Abuse

Why left out MBM promotion in E&O? Sold already?


qqq3
8229 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 13, 2019 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

icon dont sell so fast one....

mbm is attractive but not a contrarian stock.....same like Serba....

actually between MBM and Serba.....which is prefered?

both are known as promoted stocks......both are known as hot favorites.....not contrarian stocks.......



osted by qqq3 > Feb 13, 2019 12:25 PM | Report Abuse X

maybe I too should choose one....Serba or MBM?


dusti
1427 posts

Posted by dusti > Feb 17, 2019 03:07 PM | Report Abuse

Good share but I think in short term Carimin is better. Get a few

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