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2,595 comment(s). Last comment by Bgt 9963 at Jul 10, 2021 8:53 AM
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freedomfund
28 posts

Posted by freedomfund > Mar 9, 2021 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

@observatory, sorry forgot to mention AIA and Ping An in HK.

AIA share price co-relates closely with their VONB - Value of New Business (the present value of all the future premiums payable by customers). VONB increases a lot during the earlier listing years due to real growth and tweaking (like fine tuning our car engines for peak performance) various variables that add up to VONB. Once tweaking is close to perfection (there is only that much that you can tweak your car engine), real growth in sales will be the main focus. AIA has good branding, added with high visibility being a component of HSI, and top talents in management driving all 15 or 16 countries, make it a high growth player. The regional management's job is to ensure annual top and bottom line grows say, min 15%pa. And the drive is very very focus. Of course, China now is a huge contributor among them with its gigantic middle income group.

Ping An in China is also considered a well managed life insurer (this is relative, better quality compared to say, China Life - also listed in HKSE). Hence it carry good valuation in HK. The current Group CEO of AIA, Lee Yuan Siong was formerly from Ping An.


freedomfund
28 posts

Posted by freedomfund > Mar 9, 2021 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

Sorry I was a bit long winded above. For those who invest based on gut feelings, no need to read la...


gongkia
209 posts

Posted by gongkia > Mar 10, 2021 1:03 AM | Report Abuse

the penetration rate of takaful here is low ~12%, there is room to grow.


Sanofi
545 posts

Posted by Sanofi > Mar 10, 2021 1:13 AM | Report Abuse

I am working in the bank and the gov is pushing very hard in Islamic financing since last quarter, almost 10 out of 8 applications are under Islamic, and takaful is compulsory to bundle during loan acceptance. This is the reason why I am buying into this company! :)


Sanofi
545 posts

Posted by Sanofi > Mar 10, 2021 1:16 AM | Report Abuse

now almost all the local banks are selling islamic loans and what do you think for the next 2/ 3 quarters...


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Mar 10, 2021 8:34 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Sanofi, what you think on the management team keep selling on Takaful shares? It is quite annoying to see this in fact...


observatory
303 posts

Posted by observatory > Mar 10, 2021 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

@freedomfund, thanks for your valuable inputs. I've learned a lot from you!

Considering the business fundamentals, management quality and valuations of the different insurers listed in different markets, which insurance stocks would you accumulate, besides the AIA stock you already own in HKEX?

Do you feel that insurance stocks are under/ over/ fairly valued as compared to the general market or financial sector stocks?


freedomfund
28 posts

Posted by freedomfund > Mar 10, 2021 2:47 PM | Report Abuse

@observatory, don't mention it. I think you are much more experienced in investment.

Since you ask and also for the benefits of young investors :

Financial counters like banks and insurers/takaful operators are usually traded more efficiently ie close to their fair value as these companies are highly regulated and supervised by BNM hence more institutional and more informed individual investors in them. Some are traded at the higher end of the spectrum like Public Bank or LPI because of high quality management and assets. At the other end of the spectrum will be the likes of Affin etc.

Then which stock is good to invest for long term? (Short term trade will have a different strategy).
Growth companies. How to identify them? Look at their KPI results like

Life/Family takaful : new business growth, persistencies, quality of distribution channels...
General/Takaful am : new biz growth, claims ratio, distribution channels...

Current outlook in some listed Bursa insurers (my own opinion only):

ALLIANZ - good quality management, steady and sustainable top line growth. Once life revenue is more significant than general side, valuation will increase faster. At current price, it is fairly valued. This counter has a lot of long term holders, hence low liquidity. I attended their agency sales gathering before, thousands of agents there, the energy level is super charged. True enough, their top line numbers grew year after year. Fairly valued, but can accumulate long term hold.

MANULIFE - management expense is high, agency size stagnant, bancassurance with Alliance Bank costly and not much growth. For trading ok, I will not buy this counter for long term hold.

MNRB - management quality is a big question mark. Plenty of operational issues. Hence, share price is deeply undervalued by normal measurements such as BV or PE. The retakaful portfolio usually carries a lower PE valuation due to volatile earnings. If management overall KPIs are improved (such as life good persistencies), the share price will fly. If a new aggressive CEO is appointed to drive real changes, I will focus on this counter.

Takaful family market - yes, it is true that at around 14-15% penetration rate, it is still a virgin market. The last time I attended the MTA (Msian Takaful Assoc) annual dinner, the BNM governer talked about increase in penetration rate from 14% to 14.2% after one year (lebih kurang figures). Cannot be so small after all we have 11 family takaful operators. Then I realised the penetration rate formula is based on number of inforce certificates/total population. Note the word "inforce". Meaning, sell 1m certificates but if lapsed certificates are 700K, then the net inforce gain is only 300K. No wonder penetration rate grow so slowly and lapses affect profitability. Therefore to see if a takaful operator is doing well or not, quality of business needs to be known. Unfortunately, quality business in our Muslim market is still very far behind the conventional life insurance.

In short,
For growing good quality insurers esp life - buy and hold long term.
For poor quality insurers esp with more exposure to general - avoid or trade only.

Again, my 2cents...


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Mar 10, 2021 3:17 PM | Report Abuse

Hi freedomfund, yes, it is rather annoying to see Top Management keep dumping the shares once they have LTIP shares in their hands.

My concern is: They start dumping their LTIP shares since 2015-2016, and during that time, STMB profit is way lower than the current level. So, are you saying that their Top Management is not so confident on the company performance since 2015, even STMB shows consistent profit growth year after year since 2015 till now?


kinuxian
838 posts

Posted by kinuxian > Mar 10, 2021 3:44 PM | Report Abuse

@freedomfund Thx for sharing and widen our view especially ppl like us not within the circle. How about LPI?


observatory
303 posts

Posted by observatory > Mar 10, 2021 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

@freedomfund, thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts. Your inputs have given me a fresh and useful perspective when I read those company reports. I've truly benefited!


gongkia
209 posts

Posted by gongkia > Mar 10, 2021 4:33 PM | Report Abuse

happy to see good & meaningful discussion and sharing :)


gongkia
209 posts

Posted by gongkia > Mar 10, 2021 5:32 PM | Report Abuse

there are 2 call warrant exercise value at 4.8-5 expire at this month, so not easy to go up :)


ahbah
3218 posts

Posted by ahbah > Mar 12, 2021 12:58 PM | Report Abuse

Can slow slow buy to buy chip chip lah.


hazli
72 posts

Posted by hazli > Mar 12, 2021 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (March 11): A majority of life insurance companies in the country are extending financial assistance to their policyholders who may develop side effects or complications resulting in hospitalisation from Covid-19 vaccinations.
Life Insurance Association of Malaysia (LIAM) said the coverage includes hospitalisations costs that were medically necessary and reasonable due to side effects from COVID-19 vaccination under the National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme.
A number of life insurance companies are also offering cash relief programme for side effects under their respective Covid-19 vaccine fund or medical assistance programme,” it said in a statement today.
It said the assistance includes reimbursement of medical bills for Covid-19 patients and post Covid-19 vaccination support for hospitalisation due to vaccine side effects; medical assistance and special death benefits; hospitalisation income; and cash relief.
Chief executive officer Mark O’Dell advised policyholders to contact their insurance company to find out more about the assistance offered in the event that they may develop side effects due to the Covid-19 vaccine.
While applauding the government’s proactive efforts to protect the rakyat, he also urged Malaysians to play their part in the COVID-19 battle by registering for the immunisation programme via the MySejahtera application.


okang
15 posts

Posted by okang > Mar 17, 2021 11:15 PM | Report Abuse

If physical AGM is to be held In April/May, look forward to see like minded share owners to attend and touch base.


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Mar 18, 2021 9:46 PM | Report Abuse

any ideas on the effect of IFRS17 on Takaful income reporting? I wonder whether how severe is the impact..


limyuwei
134 posts

Posted by limyuwei > Mar 30, 2021 12:17 AM | Report Abuse

STM CEO talked in a webinar this morning.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/hassan-scott-odierno/recent-activity/


limyuwei
134 posts

Posted by limyuwei > Mar 31, 2021 11:51 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aminvestment-bank-research-starts-coverage-takaful-fv-rm620


speakup
18393 posts

Posted by speakup > Apr 1, 2021 3:47 PM | Report Abuse

@limyuwei, WOW! underrated. pls tell KYY to write article.


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Apr 2, 2021 11:25 PM | Report Abuse

how come the 6th LTIP price is only RM 3.55/share?? How to calculate the price wor? Last time I believe is around RM 4.16/LTIP share le..


fortheemprah
237 posts

Posted by fortheemprah > Apr 13, 2021 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

IFRS17 ... last time, if you close RM1billion in a quarter, you can report the revenue as RM1billion. After IFRS17, you have to pro rate it across the number of years of validity, i.e. RM1billion coverage for 20 years means RM12.5 million per quarter only.

Anyone can verify the above understanding?

If the above is truly the case, then you can see EPS per quarter is gonna be nosedive from the moon.


limyuwei
134 posts

Posted by limyuwei > Apr 13, 2021 1:22 PM | Report Abuse

Yes you are right, revenue is not important anyways, it is more for the profit. It will not be a simple divide by 20 years also, the earlier years will have higher weightage.


limyuwei
134 posts

Posted by limyuwei > Apr 13, 2021 1:23 PM | Report Abuse

Got pro and cons, but in the earlier years, yes, EPS gonna be a nosedive.


Xcalibre
207 posts

Posted by Xcalibre > Apr 13, 2021 3:22 PM | Report Abuse

If EPS is going to nosedive then does that mean share price is going to nosedive too?


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Apr 13, 2021 3:41 PM | Report Abuse

Perhaps market already factor in the IFRS17 effect at the current price.


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Apr 13, 2021 3:41 PM | Report Abuse

yuwei, by the way, r u holding TAKAFUL as well?


limyuwei
134 posts

Posted by limyuwei > Apr 13, 2021 5:40 PM | Report Abuse

nope, not holding Takaful.


okang
15 posts

Posted by okang > May 3, 2021 4:27 PM | Report Abuse

Check out the latest Takaful 2020 Annual Report at Bursa website.


RainT
8356 posts

Posted by RainT > May 7, 2021 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

TAKAFUL annual report sipek long....

see also want sleep


DickyMe
10005 posts

Posted by DickyMe > May 28, 2021 4:46 PM | Report Abuse

RM 3.50 coming soon!


gongkia
209 posts

Posted by gongkia > May 28, 2021 6:29 PM | Report Abuse

the valuation of a company is depending on its profitability, not on changing accounting method.


DickyMe
10005 posts

Posted by DickyMe > May 28, 2021 6:39 PM | Report Abuse

There is no profit in a company which practices CSR aka Robin Hood


RainT
8356 posts

Posted by RainT > May 28, 2021 10:18 PM | Report Abuse

Monday lau sai

buy


fortheemprah
237 posts

Posted by fortheemprah > Jun 9, 2021 5:26 PM | Report Abuse

Takaful has been making lotsa headlines these days. However, the glaring issue remains. IFRS17 ... last time, if you close RM1billion in a quarter, you can report the revenue as RM1billion. After IFRS17, you have to pro rate it across the number of years of validity, i.e. RM1billion coverage for 20 years means RM12.5 million per quarter only.

With the above understanding, it doesn't erode the Company's fundamentals. However, it does directly impact the earning per share per quarter.

It's like if you earn RM100k per year in your new job on a 10 year contract, you don't declare you're a millionaire immediately. Same goes for Takaful.


wsb_investor
27 posts

Posted by wsb_investor > Jun 9, 2021 7:01 PM | Report Abuse

which headlines?


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Jun 13, 2021 5:11 PM | Report Abuse

One thing I don't like is seeing the management key personnel keep on selling their shares. Well, although the amount is insignificant, but this is NOT a pleasant sign for investors. You can't always boast about your superb ROE, and meanwhile selling shares (almost everyday) to the market. For me, they are not sincere on what they're saying.


observatory
303 posts

Posted by observatory > Jun 17, 2021 8:32 PM | Report Abuse

I also don't like seeing the various company's key principals keep selling their shares. This practice has been going on for several years despite company share price trending higher. It is as if insiders have less confidence than shareholders.

Note 15 (page 182) of 2020 Annual Reports provide details on the share-based payments arrangement. Current scheme was approved in 2013 EGM and would be effective for 10 years.

Year/ Granted shares/ Vested shares/ Outstanding by Year End
2020/ 1.8 million/ 3.6 million/ 5.0 million
2019/ 2.8 million/ 2.6 million/ 7.3 million
2018/ 3.1 million/ 1.0 million/ 7.7 million
2017/ 3.2 million/ 2.2 million/ 6.4 million

However, putting myself in management staffs' position, I probably will also dispose shares to buy cars/ buy house/ meet living expenses, or simply to diversify investment so that not eggs are kept in one basket.

Insider share disposal doesn't mean this company is not a good investment. It's just that key management staffs probably don't see their company share price growing like 3 or 5 times in the next 10 years.


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Jun 18, 2021 8:07 AM | Report Abuse

I checked that their CFO seldom dispose her shares. But lately, she also cannot tahan & sell too. Last time CEO is the one who keep on dumping shares. But recently other key management peoples also keep dumping.

All in all, we may convince ourselves these guys wanna diversify their investments. But I am just wondering how come almost every key personnel did the share dumping lately? Everybody also wanna diversify? I agree it may not reflect the deteriorating fundamental of STMB, but for me as investors, I surely don't like to see this.


Bgt 9963
4462 posts

Posted by Bgt 9963 > Jun 18, 2021 8:29 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning...!


observatory
303 posts

Posted by observatory > Jun 18, 2021 1:43 PM | Report Abuse

@Papayashot, you're very observant. I didn't notice the different behaviors between CEO and CFO.

Personally I believe in the short term STMB will suffer again just like during MCO1.0. Although motor claim will stay low, STMB has more reliance on credit products sold via bancassurance partners. I guess few people want to buy cars or homes during this period. Showrooms are shut and legal work probably crawl to a halt. The 2nd and 3rd quarter results may not look great. Of course this is a short term consideration.


Papayashot
304 posts

Posted by Papayashot > Jun 18, 2021 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Observatory, I believe the motor insurance of STMB is doing great, just like other companies. For credit related products, again, it boils down to how severe is the impact of the IFRS17. Even in AGM, the CEO did not answer (he said subjected to the financial performance in 2022). Well, again, it is hard for outsiders like us to really know the impact. But I believe the CFO/CEO will surely know something...


DickyMe
10005 posts

Posted by DickyMe > Jun 18, 2021 4:49 PM | Report Abuse

Pasti Muflis!


gongkia
209 posts

Posted by gongkia > Jul 10, 2021 1:41 AM | Report Abuse

don't worry on accounting change (worry about real profit)... remember the mfrs9 to banking, everyone losses their mind.


Bgt 9963
4462 posts

Posted by Bgt 9963 > Jul 10, 2021 8:53 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning.

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