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186,535 comment(s). Last comment by ActuallySudahPeak at May 9, 2021 9:56 AM
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melanie1818181818
239 posts

Posted by melanie1818181818 > May 8, 2021 9:49 PM | Report Abuse

why need to wait? why you can't explain what you have posted? monday or not is irrelevant, no need to divert attention. just admit that you were trying to SCAM ppl with nonsense calculation

azman123 @wintoomuch
How did you get rm5.5? 100m x 4 is about 400m/year in your scenario. 400m/2.5b shares is 0.16 eps. Multiply with given x15 is rm2.4. Means supermax still can drop from rm5.0 to rm2.4?
08/05/2021 6:48 PM


wintoomuch Before covid , all gloves P/E ~15 to 4x ( harta )

SuperMan , last 4Q P/E : ~4

Imagine SuperMan profit drop 90% from 1B to 100m + all new factories kena bomb ( no new glove output ) and translated to pre covid P/E : 15 (lowest) , which is ~rm 5.5

*** remember !!! only profit drop 90% and P/E : 15 , The SuperMan worth rm 5.5.
*** now you can counting on still need how many Q then only go to 100m + all new factories kena bomb

You still talking shi--t ASP drop ??? it similar you tell yourself don't eat because it will become poo

Well, in the market there are a group of people very interestingly keep talking buy recovery counter like AirAxx.Technically , AirAxx is in bankruptcy already. ( check borrowing and cash in hand you know )

Also, another group people even more funny asking you sell glove because glove has too much cash in hand (4B for SuperMan , 200m for borrowing).
08/05/2021 6:36 PM


wintoomuch
111 posts

Posted by wintoomuch > May 8, 2021 10:10 PM | Report Abuse

oh ... now i know why this feller keep talking glove like shit...
look at his comments history ... he sold it on april somewhere ....
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/melanie1818181818.jsp

now fishing so-hai sell to him ... but Monday i will try to sell at 5.5


wintoomuch
111 posts

Posted by wintoomuch > May 8, 2021 10:13 PM | Report Abuse

but i guess he may make few hundreds profit but worth to spend whole weekend here.


melanie1818181818
239 posts

Posted by melanie1818181818 > May 8, 2021 10:38 PM | Report Abuse

wintoomuch oh ... now i know why this feller keep talking glove like shit...
look at his comments history ... he sold it on april somewhere ....
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/melanie1818181818.jsp

now fishing so-hai sell to him ... but Monday i will try to sell at 5.5
08/05/2021 10:10 PM

you slowpoke so.r.hai SCAMMER, i have always told ppl i sold.
so? stocks are for trading, not to die die hold even if market dynamics/trend has changed

DON'T DIVERT ATTENTION ON YOUR FAILED SCAM ATTEMPT

Posted by melanie1818181818 > May 6, 2021 7:18 PM | Report Abuse X
nah, there is no catalyst to buy in the third time. the latest round I sold 6.1 when it failed to break the resistance at 6.3. it is very likely to test and break the support at 3.8


pjseow
1072 posts

Posted by pjseow > May 8, 2021 10:57 PM | Report Abuse

Tontoro, fully agreed with you . 1B for 6 qtrs barring any unforseen circumstances like plant shutdown due yo covid infections on.its workers.


Agjl
4950 posts

Posted by Agjl > May 8, 2021 11:02 PM | Report Abuse

Interstate, inter-district travel ban from May 10-June 6


RISK8888
856 posts

Posted by RISK8888 > May 8, 2021 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

Supermax price will be stringly supported at rm4. Dont expect any sharp fall in price. However upside will depends on the pandemic situation. The longer pandamic drag, supermax will continue to make super profit. Since mar2020, supermax already pocketed 3bil profit. I believe remaining of 2021 will give supermax another 3bil profit. So total 6bil already in the pocket.


GrowingRich
2398 posts

Posted by GrowingRich > May 8, 2021 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

melanie1818181818, you have missed the boat again, you go back gambling with your gambling gang frends in air asia la


RISK8888
856 posts

Posted by RISK8888 > May 8, 2021 11:42 PM | Report Abuse

Next year 2022, i still believe supermax will earn around total 2bil profit. So plus 2021 6bil = 8 bil profit in the pocket. Yesr 2023 onwards will depends on pandamic situation and asp post pandemic. Base on this projection, i believe supermax will still be attractive in longrun because company will be having high cash reserve post pandemic. If plan carefully, these cash provide investment opportunities that allow supermax to grow further.


Foker
922 posts

Posted by Foker > May 8, 2021 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

Bullshit, RM 3 bil also dunno can reach target or not


zhen wei & JP
1064 posts

Posted by zhen wei & JP > May 8, 2021 11:58 PM | Report Abuse

South Africa variant in Malaysia is a no joke.


MoneyMakers
1938 posts

Posted by MoneyMakers > May 9, 2021 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

Who cares lead time shorter, ASP dropping, orders cancelled, US/UK/EU cases down

MY cases rising..goreng&run, goreng&run, goreng&run..Just dont be last gambler at the table

#Sarcasm


azman123
328 posts

Posted by azman123 > May 9, 2021 12:25 AM | Report Abuse

This forum is detached from the reality. Many seem to think gloves can only go up and up or stay up there. There is no way down for gloves


azman123
328 posts

Posted by azman123 > May 9, 2021 12:25 AM | Report Abuse

Bad news is sugar-coated with imaginations to turn it into "no big deal"


azman123
328 posts

Posted by azman123 > May 9, 2021 12:26 AM | Report Abuse

Numbers are presented without any justifications. Not even the supply-demand equillibrium was mentioned but they can estimate how much the company can earn? They seem to know better than the management who failed to give an estimate, funny


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 8:13 AM | Report Abuse

No orders cancelled. Government all around the world are stocking up gloves as demand continues to rise. Variants are emerging. See Singapore. After 2 dose vaccinations in Feb, nurse infected with Indian Variant. Now Singapore new cases increasing.

Now new cases are affecting the younger age. Many admitted in ICU. See Malaysian DG report. Same all over the world. So now the world realises that PPE including glove is required as new norm as Covid 19 is here to stay.

New variants, new booster jabs, more gloves demand.


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 8:15 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax now is tapping the US and Europe market actively and has a huge advantage. TG now banned in the US. So all TG market share will be taken up by Supermax.


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 8:16 AM | Report Abuse

With very strict movement control, recovery stocks tomorrow will drop. The only counters profitable and will remain so for many many years is healthcare.


ActuallySudahPeak
50 posts

Posted by ActuallySudahPeak > May 9, 2021 8:27 AM | Report Abuse

So obvious gap up tomorrow (my cases) then selldown

Gloves usage up due to my cases doesn't hold water

The writing is on the wall, sooner than later


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 8:27 AM | Report Abuse

ASP prices for this year and next (a few quarters) have all been locked in and firm. The drop in ASP is only for new orders mid next year. So PAT will continue to rise if no plant shutdown and lack of shipping containers.

All new comers into glove manufacturing will drop out due unable to compete with the Big 4 + 3 due economics of scale. Supply will drop and ASP will recover.

That is why the Big 4 + 3 have well positioned themselves with additional plant expansion as the foresee ASP stabilizing gradually. So to counter this will be the volume.


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 8:52 AM | Report Abuse

US CDC has confirmed that the virus can spread through airborne transmission. People more than 6 feet away from others indoors can be infected.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/05/07/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/


MoneyMakers
1938 posts

Posted by MoneyMakers > May 9, 2021 9:12 AM | Report Abuse

“Britain will be free of the coronavirus by August, says outgoing vaccine taskforce chief Clive Dix”

“Biden aims to vaccinate 70% of American adults by July 4”

“Ugur Sahin (Pfizer head) suggested Europe could reach herd immunity in July, latest by August”


MoneyMakers
1938 posts

Posted by MoneyMakers > May 9, 2021 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

By end of Q2 (next month), can only depend on demand from Asia

Everyone knows westerners pay premium price for gloves..without them, ASP gonna drop like a rock (Apr alrdy dropping 15%-25%)


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 9:18 AM | Report Abuse

Wrong. Its not ASP drop but spot price drop 15% - 25%. Read the report carefully.

ASP for Apr until next year already locked in and contracted.


ActuallySudahPeak
50 posts

Posted by ActuallySudahPeak > May 9, 2021 9:19 AM | Report Abuse

Unbelievable these fearmongrels ...

US/Biden is all for humanity/recovery

If not bull then bear, not future then past, not up then down , so difficult ?

India & Msia cases up? Sure . We send over foc gloves for csr got la .


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 9:19 AM | Report Abuse

Don't be fooled. Covid 19 is here to stay and mutations will continue to emerge as advised by Mordena CEO. ASP will definitely rise. Especially when borders open.


ActuallySudahPeak
50 posts

Posted by ActuallySudahPeak > May 9, 2021 9:20 AM | Report Abuse

@Taipan-san , why the selldown before QR and IB downgrade?

They surely don't share your lalaland consensus right?


MoneyMakers
1938 posts

Posted by MoneyMakers > May 9, 2021 9:22 AM | Report Abuse

Fyi Singapore is 1 of 12 countries under UK’s green travel list (no quarantine required) released last Friday

Wanna fearmonger about Singapore but dunno anything..This Taipan just complete BS since last yr alrdy


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 9:29 AM | Report Abuse

This is Supermax's detailed report. Read carefully and understand the report.


One of the key points in the QR announcement of Supermax which was broadly publicized and stressed on was the following:

"As more new capacity is available in the market, the global glove prices have begun to decrease. The glove prices have since dropped by between 15% to 25%. Currently, the Spot market prices are lower than the contracted prices."

Unfortunately, as Malaysian companies are not required to disclose such information with their quarterly reports, it is hard to gauge the average selling price (ASP) for the quarter without knowing the utilisation rate. Additionally, the wording is confusing (intentionally or not) and that is why I haven't written yet any more detailed analysis on Supermax's quarterly results.

However, from the report itself we get a few extra pieces of information on the current and future profitability of the company, which are important:

- The company donated RM75 million worth of gloves to the Malaysian government, which was recognized during this quarter;

- The inventories increased from RM363 million to RM623 million, or by RM260 million quarter-on-quarter;

- Cash on hand increased from RM3.7 billion to RM3.99 billion, or by RM290 million quarter-on-quarter;

- In total, the current assets increased by approximately RM830 million, while current liabilities remained largely unchanged.

From public announcements we know that the Meru plants were closed for 3 days. At the time of the announcement, the company guided that the loss in annual production will be less than 1% (see here). However, it appears that subsequent quarantining of workers might have resulted in much lower than expected utilisation rate. The company mentioned in its report that during the quarter it has commissioned the remaining production lines in Block B of Plant #12, and it fully contributed an added capacity of 2.2 billion pieces for the quarter, or a little over 8% extra capacity.

If that is the case, and having in mind the aforementioned extracts from the quarterly report, the ASP should have actually increased slightly. In fact, if you read the report carefully, you will notice the following on page 8:

"Increase in average selling prices (ASPs) each month which started in March, 2020 for both its Manufacturing and Distribution divisions."

And on page 9:

"Continued rise in average selling prices (ASPs) and thus contributing higher earnings from Manufacturing and Distribution."


ActuallySudahPeak
50 posts

Posted by ActuallySudahPeak > May 9, 2021 9:29 AM | Report Abuse

Trappies caught a break w sentiment in favour of HC tomorrow

SMTM yo ...


Taipan
781 posts

Posted by Taipan > May 9, 2021 9:35 AM | Report Abuse

The variance between my forecasts and actuals for the three quarters is just Rm46 million. As Supermax in its 3rd quarterly commentary asserted that had it not been for the Meru plant closure (and possibly, the shortage of containers as per the report by Hartalega on May 3) and the contribution to the government, I believe, my forecasts would have been on target. If Supermax can operate without further hiccups from Apr-Jun, will it not achieve Rm1.24 billion profits in 4Q21? I think it is more than doable.

If Supermax FY21 earnings come in at Rm4.1 billion as per forecast, the expected EPS (net of treasury shares) will be Rm1.56. At the close of the market today, Supermax price ditched to Rm5.57. The valuation of a 3.5 PE does indeed make a mockery of a supposedly efficient market.

What exactly is causing such mispricing of, probably, the most profitable listed company (in terms of EPS) in Malaysia? I think all the capable Sifu’s out there will have their explanations. I shall not venture there. Let’s leave it at that.

But why were my forecasts so much closer to the actuals compared to those made by the professional analysts? Luck, perhaps. Or could there be more?

When the price started to retreat in Aug 2020 despite the continuous strengthening of the earnings, I would say it was due to profit-taking. The stock attempted two rallies on Sep 1 and Oct 15. Each time, they failed to break through the previous high. After that, the price continued to decline to Rm3.76. The decline from Oct 21 to Apr 6 was in large part due to the fear of the arrival of vaccines. The investors (Supermax stocks are largely dominated by retail players) were afraid that the vaccines would crater the demands for gloves. This fear was consequentially egged on by the lies and misinformation propagated by the incompetent analysts as well as the big con like JP Morgan.

In my Dec 3 report, SUPERMAX BONANZA: HOW TO TREAD THE MINEFIELD TOWARDS IT, I laid out the facts and rumors at that time. I coined them “A bird in the hand” versus “Two birds in the bush.” The facts laid out then are playing out very accurately now. The covid-19 infection, as we all know now, continues to plague the world. The demand for gloves has shifted. Segments of the industries that never used gloves before are now using them. Glove demand has not cratered by the vaccines as feared.

So, what is holding back the Supermax stock price from rallying? The stock price has rallied from the low of Rm3.76 to the high of Rm6.48 – a whopping 72%. But what is holding it back from rallying even higher? The misinformation that is disseminating by the bears has now switched from vaccines to overcapacity. It is instilling fear and confusion among many investing players. I do not pretend that overcapacity is a non-issue. Every informed player should see incremental capacity coming. (Note: I use “incremental capacity” here instead of “overcapacity.”) Economics 101 teaches that when an industry experiences abnormal profits, competitions will eventually normalize them. Such a cycle afflicts all industries. At this time, the glove and semiconductor industries are experiencing outsized profitability. At other times, it was oil, palm oil, travel, etc. But stock prices will ride the waves of these ups and downs. So, the difference between “incremental capacity” and “overcapacity” is, it takes time for the glove industry to ratchet up to overcapacity. We are far from that.

It is precisely the issue of capacity, I believe, that sets my forecast apart from the pact of professional analysts. I expected the prices of gloves to taper gradually over time. But I also took into consideration that as prices of gloves taper, the production capacity of Supermax would also rise. The capacity increase offsets the effects of price tapering. This balancing act has played out in the Supermax 3Q21 earnings report. Despite the softening of ASP as reported by Supermax, the increased capacity sustains the 3Q21 profit vis-a-vis 2Q21. Had it not been for the Rm75-million contribution to the government’s pandemic fighting efforts and the Meru production shutdown, Supermax 3Q21 would have held out by the increasing capacity despite a lower ASP.

By the end of 2022, Supermax will have expanded its capacity to 48.425 billion, a 122% increase from pre-pandemic. I have not yet worked out any earnings forecast beyond FY2021. But based on the ballpark, I can safely expect that Supermax earnings will hover between Rm3 to 4.5 billion annually despite ASP tapering, at least for the next two to three years.

Stock prices do not often reflect fundamentals. Stock prices can detach from reality longer than investors can remain solvent. The stock market can be very fluid. With a still strong earnings visibility ahead driven by increasing capacity despite tapering ASP, my bet is still on Supermax to have another massive rally when all the stars align.


ActuallySudahPeak
50 posts

Posted by ActuallySudahPeak > May 9, 2021 9:35 AM | Report Abuse

Ohmy ... you're surely trapped/lesser profits

Funds throw the sec "asp dropped"

So they/RSS can pick up lower from trapped souls

The unskilled investors continue to self console and in denial watching sharks sell by them

What's the shame of sell first talk later ? Unbelievable


GloveBurnHand
114 posts

Posted by GloveBurnHand > May 9, 2021 9:38 AM | Report Abuse

Limit down soon .
USA prove vaccine are successfully control down the
covid cases .
few months later they will Freedom.

Malaysia after 1 month lock down will control down
the cases too .

Run before drop to 3.8


Freethinker
2 posts

Posted by Freethinker > May 9, 2021 9:53 AM | Report Abuse

I only know tomorrow good chance to watch genting gap down


ActuallySudahPeak
50 posts

Posted by ActuallySudahPeak > May 9, 2021 9:56 AM | Report Abuse

dei no one promote recovery stocks . not trading / preserve cash is also strategy

issue at hand is asp . drop d you all still hug each other

even kossan performed post qr w surprise element

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