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8,772 comment(s). Last comment by YAPSS at May 3, 2019 9:52 PM
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CYEOW99
11 posts

Posted by CYEOW99 > Jul 4, 2018 11:58 AM | Report Abuse

星光資源7155 (Skpres)末季、終年業績、公司基本面浅谈

首先,此贴纯属吹水,不是Buy call,Pure基本面分析,没有即看即买即涨效果,就是简简单单的基本面分析!献给 Skpres的支持者!

【业绩微跌的来龙去脉】
星光資源末季的Revenue 466Mil ,對比去年同季的524Mil 下滑14% ! Revenue下滑其實是主要客戶產品減少了追加超音速吹风机订单,因为该产品进行了小改款,产能暂时放慢,也反映在这两个季度上,但是该产品产能将Ramp Up在FY19,也就是下个季度。所以營業額從高峰時期回跌正常應有的訂單水平!除此以外,有绳吸尘机产能开始进入成熟期,需求也开始放缓,该产品将在未来停产由全新的无绳吸尘机代替。据我所知,Dyson刚刚推出最新的V10款式,旧有生产线只需做些小小的Modifications就能生产了。星光資源2015-16 年間獲得主要客戶Dyson頒予兩份代表性的合約,一個為期四年和一個為期五年,總值50億!足夠星光資源忙碌直2020年,平均一年貢獻11億或每季貢獻2.78億的營業額!那么扣除Dyson的贡献,剩下的40% Revenue贡献是来自其他客户!QoQ對比,我們看見revenue明顯下滑,但是PBT 是上升只是Profit被高企的Operating Expenses拉低了!但是YoY對比,无论是 Revenue或 Profit都是業績的新高峰!

【股息作风】
而且根據Skpres一向的派息習慣,就是全年賺幅的50%用來派息給股東,預計今年的股息有望得到大約 每股Rm0.51 或每一千股得 Rm 51!

營業額雖然下跌一點,但是Profit margin 依舊保的住在6% 的範圍,其他同行裡對比算是不錯了!最值得關注的是Skpres的還債能力非常的強,能夠在短期內還清債務!把73Mil的債務减少至37萬,加上手上現金56Mil,每股净现金达0.45。債務少或零債務是非常重要,也意味著該公司能不能順利度過大环境萧条這個難關,不會因為過度舉債,被銀行利息掐的死死!

在FY18,Skpres有一項資本開銷,購買了大約 25.3Mil的 Asset!生意依舊在擴充著!星光資源的管理層強調該公司能继续保持雙位數增長和垂直整合地位!FY18
Skpres依然保持雙位數增長,22%的全年增长率!如果您在08-01-2015以0.69 买入,三年后的08-01-2018 收盘价为2.35,那么它的CAGR 年均复合增长率为50.44%,又或者你在 03-07-2014 0.575买入,四年后的今天的收盘价为1.41 ,那么它的CAGR年均复合增长率为25.14%!

Revenue Growth Profit Growth
2014—2015 44.88%. 39.71%
2015—2016 70.47% 95.47%
2016—2017 84.92% 27.23%
2017—2018 8.28 % 21.59%

据了解,这次星光资源的营业额有些许下滑,但是不足为虑!6%的净利润率符合预期。最近Resin的涨价的确为朔料制造领域带来高成本压力

【Resin的涨价真的为Skpres带来压力吗?】
据我所知Skpres有它自己一套的控制成本方式,在Raw Material,它们采取 weighted average basis (加权平均采购成本)以及纳入劳动成本在他的成品来估计它们的售价从而达到减低成本!公司和主要客户的100%成本转嫁机制(Cost Pass Through Mechanism)使成本波动率最小化!这就是为什么营业额稍跌而盈利率能够保持在6%的原因!
这个措施和近来的Tenaga的 ICPT有异曲同工之妙。個人認為,能有效控制成本的公司往往能經得起市場考驗,因而能維持高於平均水平的盈利!Resin的漲價是國際性不是區域性的,也不是针对某个体的,所以這個問題都是Plastic領域所一致面對的問題,所以大家都是Loser,所以一個遊戲大家都是loser,遊戲規矩就要從新定義,所以產品漲價或成本轉嫁就是新的遊戲規則,Plastic領域的Margin不高,所以必須轉嫁給他們的客戶,就好比剛剛宣布產品漲價的SCGM的一樣轉嫁出去!

【至于贸易战真的对公司有很大影响吗?】
Skpres主要大本营都是驻扎在大马,国外没有产房,成品都是经由大马直接出口去到国外!它的业务和VS大致相同,都是走Box Built 路线或者是 Vertical Intergrated Status ,就是从产品设计、模具制造、电路板制造、产品组装及包装、仓库管理到最后的产品运输的一条龙服务!它们都有共同的主要客户—Dyson,Dyson是家英国家电公司,该公司并没有上市,全权由 它的创办人James Dyson独自拥有!
Dyson 本身業物貢獻主要來自亞洲,佔有銷售65%左右的份額,接下來是歐洲市場,大約21%,最後14%來自美國!如果美國真的扛上Dyson產品,整體上看不會帶來多大的影響,畢竟Dyson主要客戶群都在亞洲,單單一個日本,就佔了當地家電產品20%的佔有率!中国未来五年的销售量将超越世界任何区域。話又說回來,iPhone、香菸、啤酒漲價絲毫不影響對它熱捧的人,Dyson的獨一無二的家電科技產品更不在話下。所以美國【對歐】或【對華】貿易戰不會帶給Dyson影響,就算有也是短暫和輕微的!

【依赖单一客户有可怕的风险吗?】
据2016年的数据,在市场销售方面,Dyson也采用了更加本土化的方式。2016年,Dyson第三次参与了天猫“双十一”活动。根据Dyson方面出示的数据,“双十一”开跑后第一个小时内达成5000万元的销售额;开售48分零4秒,Dyson超越2015年双十一的总销售额;开售7小时11分54秒,销售额破亿,跻身小家电类别销量前二名;其中84%的交易在手机上完成。
Dyson线下有实体店,但想让更多的人通过线上感受Dyson的技术。Dyson认为像天猫这样的线上平台可以让消费者接触到Dyson的产品,这样消费者才会相信戴森的科技。
Dyson在2016的天猫“双十一”中销售额增长了200%,“消费者对无绳吸尘器技术的巨大需求是最大驱动力,这也是Dyson对新技术大规模投资的结果。除此之外,为了实现将数码马达运用于吹风机中,Dyson花了四年多的时间。这些颠覆性的技术,必须从根本上着手进行革新,这也是Dyson与其他大多数公司来说的区别:很多公司通常只是进行简单的产品更新,以此来快速赢得市场。”咦!你說的是2016年的數據叻,大佬!那麽我請問各位,天貓的逐年銷售業績是上升還是下跌?答案是上升的!如果今年天貓的業績再創業績高峰,那麽也意味著Dyson的銷售額也會是一樣的增長!那麽Skpres和VS這兩家公司緊緊抱著Dyson這家公司是對或錯?富士康和苹果关系都是水乳交融,所以这两家兩家都是和Dyson合作多年的伙伴,Skpres也迎合Dyson的成長在前年建了個新厂,目前该厂大约50%已经utilised 了,还有更好的空间来迎接Dyson和其他客户的订单!

【PCB进展】
该集团在PCB业务方面的进展是受到鼓舞的,目前仅有一条PCB生产线运作及少量生产,产品样本也正在审核当中,随着和它主要的客户争取着某些新合约,一旦通过标准审核规格,将会开通多达4-5条生产线,将对下个财政年度的贡献更大!

【自动化生产线】
除此之外,随着我国更换新的领导层,新政府新作风新政策,该集团也察觉到劳工供应短缺和最低薪金制的调高,开始提高自动化水平以便更有效率并降低劳工动力成本!

【扩展其他Non Dyson 客户承诺】
虽然Skpres 的业务不及VS来的大,!业务在于精不在于多,业务分散会造成公司有时得此失彼,这里赚那里亏!按部就班才能茁壮成长,欲速则不达!近来Skpres在 F&B业务有些许成长!获得3项F&B 新合约,为数额不大,大约每年贡献10M的Revenue,管理层所承诺每年增加Non Dyson 客户有实现。希望管理层再接再厉!

基本上,Skpres的 financial Status 是无懈可击,从来没有Private Placement,Right Issue和股东要钱的动作,和同行对比,它的利润率最高,债务最低、现金流量稳,股息有增无减!所以接下來Fy 19 就要看Skpres的PCBA業務進展和奪得新合約能力了!我也覺得這兩項任務就是主宰著Skpres以後接下來的股價催化劑!目前來看股價已經從高峰回調了大約30.7%!目前是低於同濟VS,在本益比13倍左右交易!


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 4, 2018 7:12 PM | Report Abuse

good article! :)


micsoh
518 posts

Posted by micsoh > Jul 7, 2018 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

Alex, can share what's your holding cost?


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 8, 2018 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Almost 500k with this counter bought from 1.33 - 2.33


lizi
1929 posts

Posted by lizi > Jul 8, 2018 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

500k in one counter? how many % of that from your total fund?


micsoh
518 posts

Posted by micsoh > Jul 8, 2018 8:59 PM | Report Abuse

And last year when him climb up until this year go down, u did not sell any of it?


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 9, 2018 8:34 AM | Report Abuse

no sell, still keeping :)


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 10, 2018 4:55 PM | Report Abuse

today heavy rebound


wakarimas
654 posts

Posted by wakarimas > Jul 10, 2018 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

vs, pie and skp rebound. Any good news? Seems like the trade war never affect them.


micsoh
518 posts

Posted by micsoh > Jul 13, 2018 4:01 PM | Report Abuse

Boring stock.


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 13, 2018 5:10 PM | Report Abuse

still waiting patiently


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 17, 2018 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

SKPRES Breakout!


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 17, 2018 3:52 PM | Report Abuse

Lai Lai come on SKPRES


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 18, 2018 9:06 AM | Report Abuse

Today another SKPRES rally!


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 18, 2018 3:26 PM | Report Abuse

Good choice...join in the rally happening now.


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 18, 2018 4:02 PM | Report Abuse

Cummon, try to break 1.60!


FLYER
6 posts

Posted by FLYER > Jul 18, 2018 10:49 PM | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5858401


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 19, 2018 7:21 AM | Report Abuse

5.067 dividend. Not bad :)


Johnson Wong
163 posts

Posted by Johnson Wong > Jul 19, 2018 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

not bad!


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 20, 2018 5:52 PM | Report Abuse

Volume today very high


SuperPanda
7354 posts

Posted by SuperPanda > Jul 22, 2018 9:45 PM | Report Abuse

one of undervalue stock in ems sector, it even look better than vs now after vs disappointing earnings prev qtr. since vs now at pe18, this stock should be at pe16


SuperPanda
7354 posts

Posted by SuperPanda > Jul 22, 2018 9:49 PM | Report Abuse

and by jan'19 when vs warrant mature, vs no of shares would increase but skpres remain, eps would be much attractive


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Jul 22, 2018 11:13 PM | Report Abuse

yes skp resources is better than vs.

no warrant, no PP, no right issue.

best!!!


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Jul 25, 2018 8:53 PM | Report Abuse

i notice this forum not very active. must have lack retail investors in here. mostly is institution fund and FF is holder of share


stockwarrior
283 posts

Posted by stockwarrior > Jul 26, 2018 3:05 PM | Report Abuse

kwp disposing


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 27, 2018 1:43 PM | Report Abuse

Accumulation and disposal mode..indecision


wakarimas
654 posts

Posted by wakarimas > Jul 30, 2018 6:12 PM | Report Abuse

when will we get the dividend?


saw investment
13 posts

Posted by saw investment > Jul 31, 2018 1:02 PM | Report Abuse

1Q annoucement will be on august but dividend was announced 0.05 exdate 3/10/2018. what do you think? drop the price and grab the dividend, or sparking the price for the interesting theme of dividend plus positive quater result?
Buy on Mbb? Lbb? or Ubb?


wakarimas
654 posts

Posted by wakarimas > Jul 31, 2018 4:31 PM | Report Abuse

skp is coming back soon i think. haha


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Jul 31, 2018 7:23 PM | Report Abuse

hopefully everything will be good! :)


i3Batman
22 posts

Posted by i3Batman > Aug 1, 2018 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

all the best investor! :)


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 1, 2018 2:41 PM | Report Abuse

I hope it can hit RM2 in near term


EPF_sell
47 posts

Posted by EPF_sell > Aug 3, 2018 9:36 PM | Report Abuse

KWAP non-stop disposed. RM 1 coming?


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Aug 5, 2018 1:15 PM | Report Abuse

triple bottom at 1.33, i dont think will fall below that


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 6, 2018 7:25 PM | Report Abuse

Just waiting to boom!!


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Aug 8, 2018 3:01 PM | Report Abuse

no up and down!!! dead counter.


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Aug 10, 2018 6:48 PM | Report Abuse

Geshen good result . When skp"?


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 11, 2018 10:09 PM | Report Abuse

Technical chart shown that SKPRES going for SMA20 soon! Uptrend is on the way! Hope this is true!


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Aug 12, 2018 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

tech stock are all flying. when is EMS turn?


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 12, 2018 2:55 PM | Report Abuse

perhaps after tech stocks! It's been sleeping and then trading is still collecting mode


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Aug 13, 2018 1:28 PM | Report Abuse

i only know KWAP is the only seller from the q


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 13, 2018 5:48 PM | Report Abuse

i think right, this stock should be privatize. Cash rich company with good records!


JayC
1228 posts

Posted by JayC > Aug 14, 2018 4:44 PM | Report Abuse

why is this counter down while others are up up and away


wakarimas
654 posts

Posted by wakarimas > Aug 14, 2018 5:08 PM | Report Abuse

keep dropping. Fundamental still looks good. Chance to accumulate


Terence Chee
138 posts

Posted by Terence Chee > Aug 17, 2018 8:00 AM | Report Abuse

Possible QR not looking good?


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 17, 2018 4:32 PM | Report Abuse

This is sector problem. It's competitor VS is not doing good too


wakarimas
654 posts

Posted by wakarimas > Aug 17, 2018 5:44 PM | Report Abuse

i found that skpres always have rm 0.2 gap between vs. So can use vs as reference.


Alex Leow Sze Shen
4802 posts

Posted by Alex Leow Sze Shen > Aug 18, 2018 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

yes, last time the gap is around RM 0.60 in between. now had been reduced to RM 0.20


TomHagen
157 posts

Posted by TomHagen > Aug 20, 2018 11:15 AM | Report Abuse

very undervalue, If next quarter report can maintain/ increase profit, price will jump.


verhansolution
120 posts

Posted by verhansolution > Aug 20, 2018 11:52 AM | Report Abuse

Extremely under valued. Time to collect more before shoot up next.

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