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0.48   -0.01 (2.04%)  0.48 - 0.49  16,000
2,168 comment(s). Last comment by ooppphao25 at Jan 23, 2020 7:40 PM
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sl3ge
132 posts

Posted by sl3ge > Mar 28, 2017 11:27 PM | Report Abuse

wake up geshen


okwoks
3 posts

Posted by okwoks > Apr 4, 2017 4:23 PM | Report Abuse

geshen woke up but dont think it will sustain


stock-man
173 posts

Posted by stock-man > Apr 5, 2017 7:52 AM | Report Abuse

Stay with Geshen and see the price movement.


stock-man
173 posts

Posted by stock-man > Apr 5, 2017 9:20 AM | Report Abuse

Geshen is waking up, don't missed the boat. This stock upside is huge and firm.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 5, 2017 10:16 AM | Report Abuse

today's hike has caught attention of many. Let me share some accounting evaluation of GESHEN.

(assumed 2017 EBIT & EPS is annualized from 2016 Q4 results)

Market Cap at RM2.17 = RM166.89M
Enterprise Value = RM214.379M
EBIT = 31.024M
EY = EBIT/EV = 14.4715% (Great)

Invested Cap = 108.910M
EBIT = 31.024M
ROIC = EBIT/IC = 28.4859% (Fantastic!)

Valuation:

Let's assume GEshen should be trading at EV/EBIT= 10. EV will be RM310.34M
Market Cap (MC) will be 262.751M
Intrinsic value based on EV/EBIT=10 will be RM3.4164 per share

If u want to use PE multiple:
Assume PE = 10, annualized 2017 EPS = 34.84sen
Fair price = RM3.484 per share

let's take the average of the above 2 valuations:
it is RM3.4502.

now you probably can see why it recently caught a lot of attention.. nothing is coincident and nothing happened without a reason...


stock-man
173 posts

Posted by stock-man > Apr 5, 2017 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

Yes, TP is at least RM3 for this stock.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 5, 2017 12:54 PM | Report Abuse

actually i prefer to use EV/EBIT valuation over PE.. it is more accurate to calculate intrinsic value that way.


stock-man
173 posts

Posted by stock-man > Apr 5, 2017 3:15 PM | Report Abuse

Dolly, thanks for the info. Geshen is confirmed run up with the trend. Buy now still consider cheap. Upside is at least 38%.


Js Goh
126 posts

Posted by Js Goh > Apr 5, 2017 10:04 PM | Report Abuse

Finally


Js Goh
126 posts

Posted by Js Goh > Apr 14, 2017 11:59 AM | Report Abuse

Lol apa sudah jadi


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 20, 2017 3:28 PM | Report Abuse

i would not even sell a single share at current price even though it has increased a lot...
see my valuation above and u will know that it is still too early to sell now..

hold on to it!!!


Js Goh
126 posts

Posted by Js Goh > Apr 20, 2017 4:56 PM | Report Abuse

My bad it is just a rough sea. I am still holding on


Lohjunwei
34 posts

Posted by Lohjunwei > Apr 20, 2017 6:02 PM | Report Abuse

within 25 mins from 2.14 to 2.28


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 9:45 AM | Report Abuse

2.38 now... but still far away from its intrinsic value of around RM3.45...


Js Goh
126 posts

Posted by Js Goh > Apr 21, 2017 9:54 AM | Report Abuse

(y)


aiboon
273 posts

Posted by aiboon > Apr 21, 2017 10:26 AM | Report Abuse

need to wait may result to push up....but this month move up alot...result may be good...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

results should be good due to the recent acquisitions.. especially on the new DOSB & the final 25% of Polyplas


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 2:47 PM | Report Abuse

fuiyoh.. GESHEN is on tongkat ali today... haha


goreng_kaki
1169 posts

Posted by goreng_kaki > Apr 21, 2017 2:48 PM | Report Abuse

overvalued


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 2:50 PM | Report Abuse

really? then what is its intrinsic value. tell me my friend... and show me how u calculated it..


Icon8888
18506 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

Out of net profit of RM7.2 mil last Q, RM3 mil was forex gain. So what goreng kaki said not entirely wrong


YiStock
1966 posts

Posted by YiStock > Apr 21, 2017 3:02 PM | Report Abuse

i still haunted by the "fact' that: Q3 always the best quarter for geshen


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:03 PM | Report Abuse

icon, perhaps u missed out one thing.. look at their Cumulative Quarter ended forex gain, which is also about RM3 mil... that means their previous quarterly results do not see much forex gain/loss...


stockmanmy
6994 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 21, 2017 3:11 PM | Report Abuse

the Sherlock Holmes Way...

if the market wants risk assets, give them risk assets or none.

meaning go buy Vitrox, MYEG, DNEX, GDEX, meaning the higher the scarier the better.

what say you?


Icon8888
18506 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 3:11 PM | Report Abuse

talking about September 2016 Q, I don't like it either. Profit was boosted by "change in inventories" of RM2 mil. Based on my experience, this figure is one off and non recurrent. Strip that off, September profit will be RM4 mil instead of 6 mil

Welcome your feedback

-------

Dolly_Chai2 icon, perhaps u missed out one thing.. look at their Cumulative Quarter ended forex gain, which is also about RM3 mil... that means their previous quarterly results do not see much forex gain/loss...
21/04/2017 15:0


stockmanmy
6994 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 21, 2017 3:12 PM | Report Abuse

what say youu icon...risk assets...go search for risk.


Icon8888
18506 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

hmmm you were not here in 2015... when things turned ugly, it tumble like a mountain

johotin, Geshen, Focus Lunber, etc... I have seen so many cases...

In my opinion, I am a better KYY disciple than you. I am guided by future earnings (as per KYY). If I am not comfortable , I don't buy.

I don't chase something just because it is the IN thing to do



the Sherlock Holmes Way...

if the market wants risk assets, give them risk assets or none.

meaning go buy Vitrox, MYEG, DNEX, GDEX, meaning the higher the scarier the better.

what say you?
21/04/2017 15:11


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:26 PM | Report Abuse

haha.. icon, well smack right in the face of this PLPman...


stockmanmy
6994 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 21, 2017 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

you all don't know the shelock holmes way only ......

the shelock holmes way not scared to go where clues lead him.......


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:31 PM | Report Abuse

icon, u r right about that 2mil boosted profit from the "Changes in inventories of finished
goods and work-in-progress"... but if u compare it with 2015 figures...

2015 Q3: 2.244mil
2016 Q3: 2.022mil

2015 Q1-Q4: 1.128mil
2016 Q1-Q4: -1.093mil

what does this mean?

in terms of recurrent operational profits, 2016 Q1-Q4 has actually improved by 1.128+1.093mil just based on this item alone..


Icon8888
18506 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 3:31 PM | Report Abuse

Dolly you don't need to throw your shares just because of what I said

Maybe they will come up with another strong set of results ? You never know

But just bear in mind what I pointed out and prepare for the possibility lah

I am not always right. As a matter of fact, by didn't buy it at 180+, I already proven wrong by the market. Nobody knows how things pan out in the future


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:33 PM | Report Abuse

similarly, compare 2015 & 2016 forex gain:

2015 Q1-Q4 forex gain = 4.654mil
2016 Q1-Q4 forex gain = 2.960mil

again, it tells us that GESHEN earned less forex in 2016 compared to 2015.. meaning reccurent operational profit has increased too, right?


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:33 PM | Report Abuse

u r a man who looks at increased profits in the coming years... didn't these figure meet ur requirements? haha


Icon8888
18506 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 3:37 PM | Report Abuse

btw stockmanmy I like the Sherlock Holme article

I think it correctly depict the fuzzy nature of stock picking

It is similar to my concept of "follow the smell of money"


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:37 PM | Report Abuse

thanks for your kind advice icon, i appreciate that kind of advice actually so that we can be vigilant in our investment.. coz no one is always right...

we have to accept other views as long as they are based on valid and sound facts..

what you mentioned above is all right though..


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 3:38 PM | Report Abuse

btw, i do not intend to sell my GESHEN yet, haha.. wait for it to fully realize its value..


Icon8888
18506 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

ya, you might make money by holding on. If you look at the past two quarters (in a cup half full way), you can argue that the boss is trying to "manage" positive result. If you are lucky, if he is able to do it for the coming Q, your stock might continue to run

You never know, stock market is always full of surprises


stockmanmy
6994 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 21, 2017 3:51 PM | Report Abuse

Follow Jaks, you can literally smell the money.

its risk assets....they sell Malaysian government securities for Bursa risk assets...

the Sherlock Holmes Way...

if the market wants risk assets, give them risk assets or none.

meaning go buy Vitrox, MYEG, DNEX, GDEX, and Jaks meaning the higher the scarier the better.


Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2017 03:37 PM | Report Abuse

btw stockmanmy I like the Sherlock Holme article


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 4:07 PM | Report Abuse

haha.. Jaks again... help KYY to pump and dump ar PLPman?? haha


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 4:08 PM | Report Abuse

has he assigned u to be one of his brokers already? haha


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 21, 2017 4:09 PM | Report Abuse

icon, i agree with u... we get limited info from quarterly reports.. but at least there is some data for us to interpret, better than none.. haha.. we are not insiders.. we cannot know beyond that, right?


stockmanmy
6994 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Apr 21, 2017 6:47 PM | Report Abuse

a rising tide lifts all boats....

of course one can wait to be lifted like a nice lady or one can do the lifting, be first in line in the rising tide.


"What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher...and that applies to Gdex, Dnex, Vitrox, and the like.

This applies to good shares, , that is objective

what is high and what is intrinsic valuation? That is subjective

in this environment,

buy good shares that seems too high and risky to the majority...first in line.

People are looking for risk assets.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 25, 2017 9:39 AM | Report Abuse

annual report was out late last week, no wonder the share price went up a lot...
read page 10 about the prospect and you will know why investors are buying non-stop...


Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020
13106 posts

Posted by Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 > Apr 29, 2017 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

最厉害 的 EMS 玩家, 也是 收购高手。


sl3ge
132 posts

Posted by sl3ge > Apr 30, 2017 9:02 AM | Report Abuse

@VenFx Ems是什么?


Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020
13106 posts

Posted by Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 > Apr 30, 2017 9:42 AM | Report Abuse

Equipment manufacturing services.
Eg: vsi/lcth/pie/eg/bslcorp/comcorp/Denko


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > May 2, 2017 2:03 PM | Report Abuse

EMS should be eletronics manufacturing services guys...
in other words, electronics contract manufacturing companies for OEMs.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > May 2, 2017 2:04 PM | Report Abuse

but most EMS companies also do design/R&D... and some are involved in plastic injection molding, sheet metal stamping, etc... and as a turnkey box build assembly house...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > May 2, 2017 2:05 PM | Report Abuse

GESHEN is not really considered an EMS company...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > May 2, 2017 2:06 PM | Report Abuse

companies like Flextronics, Foxconn, Jabil, Plexus, EG Industries... yes = EMS companies

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