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0.94   +0.03 (3.30%)  0.91 - 0.95  1,112,200
1,477 comment(s). Last comment by Joe Ng at Jan 20, 2020 5:19 PM
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Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 8, 2017 3:49 PM | Report Abuse

dun worry myongcc5... my valuation was conservative...

if u calculate like what most investors like to do (using PE)...

annualize 2 latest Q to full year... 24.23sen x 2 = 48.46 sen EPS... just apply PE 10.. it is worth RM 4.85


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 8, 2017 4:03 PM | Report Abuse

myongcc5... another share with good EV/EBIT and ROIC is Prlexus... somemore they are expanding (which is what most investors like, haha)

see by end of this year or early 2018.. i think Prlexus price will shoot up..

this share has not gone up much yet.. my average price around RM1.40... but have bought enough for a big portion % of my total share value... now waiting for it to go up.... i wont add more even though now the price is still low... i need to diversify my portfolio not to concentrate too much on one share


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 8, 2017 4:03 PM | Report Abuse

if you are interested.. can study Prlexus urself...

Dun trust me yet.. haha


8u29song
1830 posts

Posted by 8u29song > Mar 8, 2017 4:11 PM | Report Abuse

why not..


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 8, 2017 4:17 PM | Report Abuse

yes, Magni also good... i did a comparison before.. equally good for both... Magni slightly higher Dividend yield.. but other ratios almost the same...

but imagine urself.. from RM5.00 to RM10.00 easier or from RM1.40 to RM2.80 easier?


Cakes Moon
5127 posts

Posted by Cakes Moon > Mar 8, 2017 4:31 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, what is ur tp for this counter?


nocindycat
492 posts

Posted by nocindycat > Mar 8, 2017 11:47 PM | Report Abuse

rm4


chankp7010
557 posts

Posted by chankp7010 > Mar 9, 2017 9:53 AM | Report Abuse

Can "Success" continue its climb? It depends a lot on the Board of Directors. If only they decide to declare dividend at this juncture, then the climb will continue otherwise, it will be trading sideway till next QR


Contender
523 posts

Posted by Contender > Mar 9, 2017 10:07 AM | Report Abuse

Running ahead of successful transformation .... overly successful. what is the catalyst for share price meteoric rise ?


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 10, 2017 2:45 PM | Report Abuse

as I mentioned earlier, this stock is worth at least RM4.29. Believe it or not... time will prove.. let's see :)


csan
166 posts

Posted by csan > Mar 12, 2017 2:15 AM | Report Abuse

got the target price at RM4.28. haha amazingly close.


RonnieKimLondon
100 posts

Posted by RonnieKimLondon > Mar 12, 2017 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

Dear friends,

Success looks like a stock to buy. Is there any broker promoting Success?

I have not seen any. Strange.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 13, 2017 1:29 PM | Report Abuse

u r right myongcc5.. i seldom trust analysts from any investment banks...
most of the time they are helping some tycoons to promote shares... but u can read as reference.. then analyze on ur own to decide.. no harm..

just like what i tell u.. dun trust me.. do ur own homework... ^^


ginvin
206 posts

Posted by ginvin > Mar 13, 2017 2:08 PM | Report Abuse

collect again @ $3.00


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Mar 14, 2017 11:03 AM | Report Abuse

sold 2.99...thx


goody99
1289 posts

Posted by goody99 > Mar 15, 2017 8:49 AM | Report Abuse

undervalued at the moment. Just wait...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 17, 2017 9:09 AM | Report Abuse

csan, how did you come up with yr TP of RM4.28?

Mind to share?

everyone has own way of calculating the intrinsic value. I have shown mine above.. would like to see how you got to yours...


goody99
1289 posts

Posted by goody99 > Mar 17, 2017 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

slowly slowly up towards the next QR is good enough


chankp7010
557 posts

Posted by chankp7010 > Mar 20, 2017 9:34 AM | Report Abuse

Wow! Success is going to touch new height. Now at RM3.10 and soon RM3.50 after the 3QR is released.


csan
166 posts

Posted by csan > Mar 22, 2017 12:29 PM | Report Abuse

dolly_chai2, actually i looked into it in detail and counted again, the maximum TP is only RM3.23


csan
166 posts

Posted by csan > Mar 22, 2017 12:30 PM | Report Abuse

there were some one-off gains, also i notice the market values Success at a PE of 8.5x max. so maximum it can go is RM3.23


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 27, 2017 12:32 PM | Report Abuse

csan... not sure how you calculated that.. anyway, i will still keep to my calculation... it is ok, everyone has difference ways of calculating the intrinsic value...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 27, 2017 12:33 PM | Report Abuse

just do not forget about one very clear sign: the process equipment section has turnaround from losses so this is a double boost for SUCCESS on top of the increasing sales of its lighting & transformer business


csan
166 posts

Posted by csan > Mar 27, 2017 9:42 PM | Report Abuse

dolly, u used 24.23sen as your EPS. you have to take out RM3.1 million from net profit due to impairment reversal(this income is definitely one off and not recurring).

also i would take out RM4 million in FOREX gains because i think ringgit will strengthen. the current actions of trump and what is happening in the US will most likely weaken USD.....or stronger MYR.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 28, 2017 12:41 PM | Report Abuse

indeed very well said ragingharrypotato... all the points that you raised up are also the main reasons why i bought it last time...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 28, 2017 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

i am actually using EV/EBIT multiple to calculate the intrinsic value of SUCCESS (instead of using PE) as it can reflect the debt/cash in a more accurate way:

Trailing 4 Q valuations:

Assume EV/EBIT = 10, EV wil be: RM 529960
Market Capitalization (MC) will be: RM 491038

Intrinsic Value RM 4.2933

and bear in mind that this valuation is very conservative.. as I took last 4 quarterly results (where the first 2 quarters are not so good... in Q6, they even made some loss due to process equipment division)....

If you annualized 2017 2 quarters... u will even see much higher valuation...

but again, i wanna play conservatively so i take last 4 quarters...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 28, 2017 12:46 PM | Report Abuse

Note that:

Enterprise value = Market capitalization + long and short term debt + minority interest - cash & cash equivalents


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Mar 29, 2017 3:09 PM | Report Abuse

hrm wonder y my comments were deleted. did i say offend anybody?


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Mar 30, 2017 2:49 PM | Report Abuse

so wats d conclusion? Fair value how much?


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Mar 31, 2017 10:39 AM | Report Abuse

Once upon a time, someone blogged that Success has poor cash flow and the profit was not as good as it seems so in order to dispel that rumour have a look at the financial position of Success:
Q42015: Net debt equals RM63 mil
Q42016: Net debt equals RM8 mil.

55 mil worth of debt was pared down over the course of a year. Once this company turns net cash, then i guess the EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA valuation will deserve a rerating.


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 31, 2017 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

agree with what ragingharrypotato said...

SUCCESS financials have improved tremendously... that is also why i bought into it...


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 31, 2017 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

another reason of course is its improvement in revenue and profit...


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Mar 31, 2017 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

Quite confident that profit even netting off the 4 mil forex gains (on the assumption that we treat it as strictly once off, and with SEB contribution being muted and insignificant (for the sake of being conservative and with additional kicker if it performs), Success is primed to make very close to RM50 million a year PATAMI for FY17 (2 months away). At 10x PE (not unreasonable for a company doing close to 20% growth), Success should technically trade at RM4.28.

10x PE is again quite conservative as other LED stocks are trading at 12-15X PE. There's a theoretical upside of 40% but with additional kickers from recovery from SEB + PE expansion + outperformance of expectations.


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Mar 31, 2017 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

2 quarters away i mean


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Mar 31, 2017 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

bought 3.03


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Mar 31, 2017 12:23 PM | Report Abuse

well said ragingharrypotato...


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Mar 31, 2017 2:37 PM | Report Abuse

go go go


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Apr 3, 2017 11:11 AM | Report Abuse

According to the edge weekly, Success is number 19 best performing stock YTD for 2017. Furthermore all LED associated counters are running like mad, while Success will be a slow turtle and continue to appreciate in value once people come to terms of their recovery of earnings and strong LED growth.


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Apr 3, 2017 12:06 PM | Report Abuse

TP: RM4.20


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Apr 3, 2017 3:42 PM | Report Abuse

go go go


tecpower
3539 posts

Posted by tecpower > Apr 3, 2017 6:30 PM | Report Abuse

This may be a multibagger stock!


samsambank
609 posts

Posted by samsambank > Apr 3, 2017 7:27 PM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/119664.jsp

Success ranks 19th.


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Apr 4, 2017 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

just buy success


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Apr 4, 2017 4:11 PM | Report Abuse

One of the cheapest stock in Bursa right now!


ragingharrypotato
16 posts

Posted by ragingharrypotato > Apr 5, 2017 11:58 AM | Report Abuse

3.22?!!! Market finally wake up to this stock???!!!


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Apr 5, 2017 1:31 PM | Report Abuse

go go go


Dolly_Chai2
971 posts

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > Apr 5, 2017 2:43 PM | Report Abuse

wow.. seems like it has caught more attention today... well done SUCCESS... indeed an undervalued share.. glad that i had purchased it earlier...


Special4U
179 posts

Posted by Special4U > Apr 5, 2017 2:44 PM | Report Abuse

3.30 now


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Apr 5, 2017 2:50 PM | Report Abuse

sangat garang!!!!! yahhooooo


suregain
1614 posts

Posted by suregain > Apr 5, 2017 4:28 PM | Report Abuse

yahhhhhhoooooooo

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