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52,195 comment(s). Last comment by Mabel at Feb 21, 2020 12:11 AM
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mikekim
1121 posts

Posted by mikekim > Feb 20, 2020 12:02 PM | Report Abuse

Assuming a conservative RM90m net profit per quarter = RM360m net profit annually.

Although P/E is not the best metric to value this stock due to different leverage levels for different O&G companies (EV/EBITDA and P/B would be better), for illustration's sake:

At a conservative 10x P/E, we're looking at a market cap of around RM3.6bn = 60cents TP

At a even more conservative 8x P/E, we're looking at a market cap of around RM2.9bn = 50 cents TP

Current market cap of RM2.3bn, or around 40 cents, is valuing the stock at around 6x P/E.

6x P/E for a RM2-2.5billion annual revenue company is truly dirt cheap.

I'm not really into micro prediction of whether it's going to be 0.38 or 0.39 or 0.40 or 0.41 or 0.42, these can fluctuate due to many different reasons - pump and dump, trash and cash, short selling, margin call, contra force sell, profit taking, value investing etc. It's pure gamble at these tight ranges. Get it right = pure luck. Get it wrong = bad luck. But what is clear - there are no fundamentals or skills involved in these small volatilities. It's just pure luck.

A more interesting movement over the next couple months would be 0.30, 0.40, 0.50, 0.60, 0.70 - that would be much more meaningful and reflects the true shift of market sentiment and market acceptance of Bumi Armada's change in fundamentals.


heima
129 posts

Posted by heima > Feb 20, 2020 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

very obvious is a fake sell queue. not logic at all.


armadatuah2017
1193 posts

Posted by armadatuah2017 > Feb 20, 2020 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

not hard to see it through. EPF will gain its substantial shareholder's position at right timing and price. still in accumulation phase.. hold it, at Q4, the price will move but will not reach the first tp of 0.60... big boss also needs more shares at current level.


winmal
517 posts

Posted by winmal > Feb 20, 2020 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

don't understand why EPF still continue selling.. if anyone perceived this stock have so high TP 0.60


armadatuah2017
1193 posts

Posted by armadatuah2017 > Feb 20, 2020 1:02 PM | Report Abuse

dont look at the price movement every day, unless there's limit up. you have your remisier to watch out for you.


mikekim
1121 posts

Posted by mikekim > Feb 20, 2020 1:29 PM | Report Abuse

Coronavirus is starting to be contained in China.
New cases of only around 350 today, compared to around 1,700 day before.
The infection curve is starting to flatten and reach a plateau.

Recommend strong buy on the basis of:

1) Subsiding coronavirus fears
2) Rebounding oil price
3) Stronger Q4 results with net profit >RM90m
4) Price has been hammered down and still trading at a compelling discount and valuation now
5) Government is announcing a stimulus package soon to boost the economy - this would lead to hot money inflow into bursa.

But as usual, your money your call. Goodluck.


Letsfly
37 posts

Posted by Letsfly > Feb 20, 2020 1:40 PM | Report Abuse

How would gov stimulus affect BA? It's generally for whole economy not just specific for BA no? Please enlighten


mikekim
1121 posts

Posted by mikekim > Feb 20, 2020 2:06 PM | Report Abuse

Try to think.


InvestorKING
5265 posts

Posted by InvestorKING > Feb 20, 2020 2:46 PM | Report Abuse

Wow, huge block at 0.405


FATA86
270 posts

Posted by FATA86 > Feb 20, 2020 2:58 PM | Report Abuse

IK, those big ques are fake.


FATA86
270 posts

Posted by FATA86 > Feb 20, 2020 3:20 PM | Report Abuse

Shorties non stop action


Warriors88
316 posts

Posted by Warriors88 > Feb 20, 2020 3:24 PM | Report Abuse

Good 4th quarter report if compare with the past 4th quarter.
20/02/2020 3:21 PM


FATA86
270 posts

Posted by FATA86 > Feb 20, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

So far all the OnG company with good financial results share price went up


FATA86
270 posts

Posted by FATA86 > Feb 20, 2020 3:39 PM | Report Abuse

Shorties later have to cover 0.395 position.


Lchew
70 posts

Posted by Lchew > Feb 20, 2020 3:40 PM | Report Abuse

Be prepared.anytime can shoot up now


InvestorKING
5265 posts

Posted by InvestorKING > Feb 20, 2020 3:56 PM | Report Abuse

How to shoot up?


Kim0914
10 posts

Posted by Kim0914 > Feb 20, 2020 3:57 PM | Report Abuse

hmmm....i am wondering too....haha


InvestorKING
5265 posts

Posted by InvestorKING > Feb 20, 2020 4:10 PM | Report Abuse

Armada won't shoot up unless shpok and mikekim push it up


LeslieGoh
1084 posts

Posted by LeslieGoh > Feb 20, 2020 4:21 PM | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy Atmada will coming and shoot up high...


Lchew
70 posts

Posted by Lchew > Feb 20, 2020 4:57 PM | Report Abuse

Watch out tomorrow.will touch fifty cts


mikekim
1121 posts

Posted by mikekim > Feb 20, 2020 5:39 PM | Report Abuse

Transacted at 0.395 and 0.40 today around 6.6m shares.
1 week to go to Q4.
Goodluck all.


GooShem
780 posts

Posted by GooShem > Feb 20, 2020 5:46 PM | Report Abuse

beware the quarter report


FATA86
270 posts

Posted by FATA86 > Feb 20, 2020 5:48 PM | Report Abuse

Gooshem, beware of the QR bcoz of QR is good or.bad? Haha


SuperPanda
8579 posts

Posted by SuperPanda > Feb 20, 2020 5:58 PM | Report Abuse

prev qtr rpt was not bad but price not going up, but this time hope fund will see it different way


SuperPanda
8579 posts

Posted by SuperPanda > Feb 20, 2020 5:58 PM | Report Abuse

different way in term of its cash flow and able to generate enough profit to pay back loan


GooShem
780 posts

Posted by GooShem > Feb 20, 2020 6:03 PM | Report Abuse

good or bad, No people know


Mabel
5657 posts

Posted by Mabel > Feb 20, 2020 6:09 PM | Report Abuse

I'm looking forward for 4 Consecutive Profits QR..

This is really important. The Target Price will come naturally.

We need to hit 4 Consecutive Profits QR. This is the Major Milestone we have to achieve.

It will set the pace for this ship to sail for the remaining part of this year..


mikekim
1121 posts

Posted by mikekim > Feb 20, 2020 7:16 PM | Report Abuse

Kraken operating at 90+% throughout 2H2019 as announced by Enquest not yet priced in - hence the severe undervaluation now.

Recall earlier that Armada was trading at around 0.65 before the Kraken amendment agreement was announced causing it to free fall to 0.15.

Now that Kraken’s problems are solved and performing optimally even in 4Q when the weather is supposedly harshest, 2020 full year performance will definitely be better.

I think we will see a write back of Kraken in 2020. 4Q 2019 is probably still too early as the management team and auditors would want to be conservative (eg show 4-6 quarters good Kraken uptime before writing back).

In any case, the share price really shouldn’t be below 0.65 with Kraken performing optimally.

Thereafter in 2020, I think we can expect Armada’s core net profit to be stable around RM350-400m.

If anyone here has the patience to hold 3-4 years the debt will be half of where it is today, and equity value will probably be at 5-8 billion, translating to a price of around RM1-1.5.

Your money, your call. Goodluck.


itch
952 posts

Posted by itch > Feb 20, 2020 7:37 PM | Report Abuse

Not easy to hold for 3 to 4 years for rm1 and above. Too tempting to sell before it reach there.

Many of us has been here quite long. Swung from 6 figure loss to 6 figure gain. Above Rm1 many of us would be on several hundred percent gain.

I doubt you will see many us here again way before rm1...including me

But u never know, depending on its performance and the macro environment then, i may still keep some in my portfolio.


RJ87
2928 posts

Posted by RJ87 > Feb 20, 2020 7:42 PM | Report Abuse

Better be only FPO operators and sell OSV asset. Else, OMS has to improve.

OMS is dragging armada down.


stockraider
14283 posts

Posted by stockraider > Feb 20, 2020 7:47 PM | Report Abuse

Actually Armada earn much more than yinson & it is a company which has deeper capacity & capability mah...!!

But mkt wrongly perceived yinson more valuable loh....!!

More positive truth on armada will be revealed when armada announced coming q4 profit mah...!!


GooShem
780 posts

Posted by GooShem > Feb 20, 2020 7:51 PM | Report Abuse

another stupid analysis by stuckraider. how's your hengyuan? still tp 22 by cny 2021? lol


freddiehero
10401 posts

Posted by freddiehero > Feb 20, 2020 7:53 PM | Report Abuse

wow.. hengyuan tp 22?


freddiehero
10401 posts

Posted by freddiehero > Feb 20, 2020 7:53 PM | Report Abuse

r u sure?


GooShem
780 posts

Posted by GooShem > Feb 20, 2020 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

ask stuckraider


GooShem
780 posts

Posted by GooShem > Feb 20, 2020 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

btw perdana making losses. strong alerts to Armada


stockraider
14283 posts

Posted by stockraider > Feb 20, 2020 8:39 PM | Report Abuse

This fellow gooshem sohai loh....!!

Ask him to lari kuat kuat hengyuan Rm 13.00, very stubborn & think very smart did not follow sell loh...!!

Now HRC Rm 4.00, cry babby loh....!!

U should be responsible for not listening mah...!!

Posted by GooShem > Feb 20, 2020 7:51 PM | Report Abuse

another stupid analysis by stuckraider. how's your hengyuan? still tp 22 by cny 2021? lol


RJ87
2928 posts

Posted by RJ87 > Feb 20, 2020 9:20 PM | Report Abuse

It only means Perdana last quarter got one off job with good margin.


RJ87
2928 posts

Posted by RJ87 > Feb 20, 2020 11:15 PM | Report Abuse

And perdana don't have urusharta to back the price...

u see waseong, got urusharta backing...Price refuse to go down despite -30mil losses....


SuperPanda
8579 posts

Posted by SuperPanda > Feb 20, 2020 11:52 PM | Report Abuse

armada sure huat >80m profit is confirmed


RJ87
2928 posts

Posted by RJ87 > Feb 20, 2020 11:52 PM | Report Abuse

Market is a scamming machine.

Wah Seong reported revenue drop from 706mil to 429mil and profit plunged further from -9.9mil to -30mil yoy losses. Not a word about the losses but focused on, apparently results beats estimates? Kenanga, MIDF, Public bank.

What exactly are analyst thinking?


stockraider
14283 posts

Posted by stockraider > Feb 20, 2020 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

Be prepare for Armada to runup big with the coming good quarterly report mah.....!!


RJ87
2928 posts

Posted by RJ87 > Feb 20, 2020 11:56 PM | Report Abuse

Yinson is trading at 4X it's book value, 40times it's earnings.

Armada is trading at 0.8times it's book value, 6 times it's earnings.

Urusharta sila goreng ini counter macam ICON. Thank you.


Mabel
5657 posts

Posted by Mabel > Feb 21, 2020 12:00 AM | Report Abuse

Here's more info..

Urusharta Jamaah resurfaces as Icon's substantial shareholder
TheEdge Thu, Feb 20, 2020 10:52pm - 55 minutes ago


KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 20): Urusharta Jamaah Sdn Bhd, the government’s special-purpose vehicle (SPV) set up to manage Lembaga Tabung Haji's underperforming assets, has resurfaced as Icon Offshore Bhd’s substantial shareholder.

An exchange filing today showed 132.86 million Icon shares, derived from the offshore support vessel provider’s rights issue, were added to Urusharta Jamaah’s shareholding.

With this, Urusharta Jaamah’s shareholding in Icon rises to 133.80 million shares, representing a 5.63% direct stake as of writing. The SPV had last month ceased to be Icon’s substantial shareholder, after disposing of 972,225 shares.

Urusharta Jamaah was among those who voted for the cash call last November, an exercise to raise up to RM250 million, alongside a plan to restructure some RM577 million of Icon’s debts to reduce its gearing from 9.16 times to under 1.4 times.

Icon unit Hallmark Odyssey Sdn Bhd’s controlling shareholder, Hallmark Odyssey Sdn Bhd (owned by Ekuiti Nasional Bhd or Ekuinas), had also given an undertaking to subscribe up to RM183 million of the rights issue.

Following the subscription of ordinary shares, pursuant to the rights issue of shares with warrants, Hallmark Odyssey owned a direct 57.406% stake in Icon.

Icon's share price has halved from Friday (Feb 14)’s closing of 23.5 sen to close at its all-time low of 11.5 sen today, after 23.78 million shares were done. Bloomberg data showed Icon is now valued at a market capitalisation of RM273.5 million.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/639834


Mabel
5657 posts

Posted by Mabel > Feb 21, 2020 12:11 AM | Report Abuse

Usually big institution has better information than us retailer. I anticipate this coming QR , ICON will report Profits which compel Urusharta to come in.
.
TH has been battered severely and their investors are being hit with low dividend. This latest developments in a very positive things for ICON Investors.

Meow

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