LONDON (Bloomberg) -- The OPEC+ coalition is pushing for other major oil producers to join it in a deep reduction of global crude output and stem the historic rout in prices, a move that sent futures sharply higher.
A global cut of 10 million barrels a day is a realistic goal, according to a delegate, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has already scheduled a virtual meeting on Monday and wants other nations to join talks as soon as possible.
The 10 million figure was first touted by President Donald Trump on Thursday, who called for a coordinated production cut.
He gave no indication whether the US would take part. For Saudi Arabia, it’s essential that producers including the Americans join in.
Trump is meeting oil executives later on Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting his country’s oil executives too.
Oil surged on the news. But there are enormous obstacles to any deal.
Russia was quick to deny on Thursday that any agreement had been reached -- although it had said for weeks it’s open to talks.
Even if an accord can be struck, a cut of 10 million barrels would barely dent the glut of oil that has been created by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
Traders estimate the lost demand could be as high as 35 million barrels a day.
And so far, there is no sign of any movement toward a truce in the ground war. Saudi Arabia is ramping up exports, as it promised to do.
But diplomatically the picture is more nuanced.
For several days, Saudi Arabia was wrong-footed by Russia, as Moscow sounded open to talks and blamed the price collapse on the kingdom.
Now, by saying it’s ready to cut, the kingdom has put the onus on Moscow, forcing the Kremlin to reverse their opposition to cuts, or be blamed -- by Trump among others -- for the damage.
Oil Jumps
Brent crude, which jumped more than 40% on Thursday after Trump’s announcement before paring gains, rose 11% on Friday. It’s still down 50% this year as the virus fight grounds planes and shutters huge swaths of the global economy.
In some corners of the market, physical prices have gone negative and some producers are expected to start suspending output as there’s not enough space to store the excess crude.
Tankers have filled up fast as ships are being used as storage rather than transport.
Oil-producing nations around the world are feeling the pain of the price war, which started a month ago after Russia refused to take part in deeper cuts, saying it would only extend the previous deal.
Saudi Arabia aggressively discounted its crude days later, in a move to seize customers from Russia’s traditional markets.
Shale producers in the US are struggling and national finances are under pressure. Russia, for example, is now expecting oil prices at US$20 a barrel this year and will ramp up borrowing to make up for a budget shortfall.
Saudi Arabia will also have to make deep budget cuts as oil accounts for the vast majority of its revenue.
The kingdom’s next move in the price war could come as soon as Sunday, when it sets official prices for its crude exports. The operation could be postponed, however -- as it was last month -- to avoid prejudicing the Monday meeting.
Washington’s Options
Trump will meet on Friday oil executives, who are battling among themselves as to what the administration should do.
The White House has considered tariffs on foreign oil imports to protect US producers, though the idea is opposed by some top Trump advisers led by Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter.
The idea of a US production cut, probably executed by capping exports, is also on the table at the White House, though many oil industry representatives have warned that the approach would cause the US to cede the very "energy dominance” Trump has repeatedly celebrated.
Trump said on Thursday he expected a deal -- but made no mention of any role for the US.
"It would be great for Russia, it would be great for Saudi Arabia -- I hope they make that deal but that’s what they told me,” he said. "Can something happen where it doesn’t happen? I guess? In which case there’s another alternative, but I’d rather not see the other alternative.”
In his tweet, Trump said he had spoken to Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who had in turn spoken with Putin. But a Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the conversation hadn’t happened and that no production cut had been agreed to with the Saudis.
Russia hasn’t yet confirmed its attendance at the OPEC+ meeting. But Russia has long said it’s open to talks, and the industry may find itself forced into production cuts anyway because of the slump in demand, potentially bolstering the case for a coordinated response.
MOSCOW: Russia bersedia bekerjasama dengan Arab Saudi dan Amerika Syarikat (AS) untuk mengurangkan pengeluaran minyak, kata Presiden Vladimir Putin, semalam.
Beliau berkata, Russia sanggup membuat perjanjian dalam rangka kerja kumpulan OPEC+ dan bersedia bekerjasama dengan AS dalam isu itu, menurut satu kenyataan dikeluarkan oleh Kremlin.
“Saya percaya penggabungan usaha adalah perlu bagi menyeimbangkan pasaran dan mengurangkan pengeluaran,” menurut kenyataan itu.
Harga minyak jatuh dalam beberapa minggu kebelakangan ini susulan kemerosotan permintaan dan ketidaktentuan ekonomi global akibat pandemik COVID-19.
Bulan lalu, OPEC dan sekutunya gagal mencapai persetujuan berhubung pengurangan pengeluaran minyak selepas Moscow yang mengetuai OPEC+, enggan mengetatkan pembekalan bagi menangani kesan wabak berkenaan.
Putin dalam satu perbualan dengan Menteri Tenaga, Alexander Novak, berkata Russia bersedia berbincang mengenai ‘pengurangan kira-kira 10 juta tong sehari, sedikit kurang, mungkin sedikit lebih’.
Katanya, Russia berhubung rapat dengan Arab Saudi dan beliau juga telah bercakap dengan Presiden AS, Donald Trump, baru-baru ini. - AFP
The alliance (OPEC+) is tentatively aiming to hold the virtual gathering on April 9 instead of Monday as it previously intended, a delegate familiar with the matter said.
Meeting suppose on April 6 (Monday), delayed to April 9 (Thursday). So, got 3 more days for us to Sailang on O & G stocks before it’s share price spike up to sky high ! Huat ah ! Heng ah ! Ong ah !
Oil set to ‘crater’ Monday as OPEC meeting delayed, tensions flare between Saudi Arabia and Russia
PUBLISHED SAT, APR 4 202012:00 PM EDT
~ The virtual meeting between OPEC and its allies scheduled for Monday has been postponed, sources familiar with the matter told CNBC, as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia mount.
~ The meeting will now “likely” be held on Thursday, sources said.
~ The Monday meeting was set after President Donald Trump said to CNBC on Thursday that he expected Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to announce a deal on production cuts.
The virtual meeting between OPEC and its allies scheduled for Monday has been postponed, sources familiar with the matter told CNBC, amid mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The meeting will now “likely” be held on Thursday, sources said.
The Monday meeting was set after President Donald Trump said to CNBC on Thursdaythat he expected Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to announce a deal to cut production by up to 15 million barrels, and that he had spoken to both countries’ leaders.
The delay is likely to hit oil prices next week following a record-setting comeback week for crude. U.S. oil surged 25% on Thursday for its best day on record, and gained another 12% on Friday. It finished the week with a 32% surge, breaking a 5-week losing streak and posting its best weekly performance ever, back to the contract’s inception in 1983.
“It’s probably going to crater,” Again Capital’s John Kilduff said. “There was a lot of optimism priced into oil Thursday and Friday. With this new Saudi, Russia spat, it doesn’t look like it’s going to come together.”
Despite last week’s surge, West Texas Intermediate crude is still down nearly 40% in the last month on the heels of demand destruction from the coronavirus outbreak, and the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Friday’s jump was fueled by a Reuters report that OPEC+ was contemplating a production cut equivalent to about 10% of world supply, and that Putin said a cut of 10 million barrels a day appeared possible.
Both Saudi Arabia and Russia have sought U.S. cooperation in balancing the world oil supply. American drillers are still pumping near record levels as the world is coming to the edge of its ability to store oil.
U.S. oil executives met with the president Friday at the White House, and there was speculation he would ask them to cooperate in cuts. No agreement came of the meeting, but Trump did seem to reflect an industry view that market forces should determine prices.
“These are great companies and they’ll figure it out,” he said at a White House briefing following his meeting with the energy CEOs. “It’s a free market, they’ll figure it out.”
At its March meeting, OPEC proposed cutting production by 1.5 million barrels per day in an effort to combat the demand slowdown, but OPEC-ally Russia rejected the additional cuts. The meeting ended with no agreement, and in retaliation Saudi Arabia slashed its oil prices in an effort to gain market share, and subsequently increased its production to a record high of more than 12 million barrels per day.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia have escalated since. In comments Friday, Putin blamed the collapse in oil prices on Saudi Arabia pulling out of the more than 3-year-old OPEC plus deal, along with its increase in production and agreements for discounts, all of which exacerbated the blow from the coronavirus.
Saudi Arabia lashed back. In a statement Saturday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reportedly said Putin’s comments were “devoid of truth.”
Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also issued a statement Saturday saying comments from Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak “were categorically false and contrary to fact.” The statement said the Saudi minister “expressed his surprise at the attempts to bring Saudi Arabia into hostilities against the shale oil industry.” The minister noted that Saudi Arabia was a major investor in the U.S. oil sector.
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