OLEFINS Asian ethylene would likely remain bearish this week after hitting a four-year low last Friday. Selling pressure would likely continue this week amid lower downstream plant operations and negative margins. Despite this, the steam cracker operations in Asia would likely remain high this week due to a healthy ethylene/naphtha spread.
Domestic China propylene price was under pressure with a polypropylene producer lowering operating rate amid falling margins. However, imported material was supported amid tight supply in Northeast Asia due to a delay in Hanwha Total's cracker restart.
The Asian butadiene market closed on a firmer note Friday amid tighter supply, with delivered prices to Northeast Asian markets up $35/mt on week to $1,095/mt Friday, particularly due to short supply in South Korea. This was due to South Korea's LG Chemical shutting its 170,000mt/year butadiene unit Wednesday, as well as its 160,000mt/year styrene butadiene rubber and 180,000mt/year polybutadiene rubber unit in Daesan, leaving only its SSBR and NBR units open. The market is expected to be firm to stable in the days ahead, depending on the cracker situation with South Korean plants.
POLYMERS Asian linear low density polyethylene was assessed down $20/mt last week at $920/mt CFR Far East Asia Tuesday. Actively-traded September LLDPE futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell Yuan 285/mt over the same period to Yuan 7,630/mt ex-warehouse Tuesday. The outlook was bearish for the third quarter as downstream applications such as cable and infrastructure demand have been weak, although packaging demand has been relatively stable, participants said.
Asian polypropylene prices fell last week amid lackluster demand and ample supply. Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach amid recent slides in Chinese PP futures, which dampened sentiment. Some traders pointed out that homopolymer PP production was being taken over by the coal and PDH-based producers, while naphtha-based producers were switching production to copolymer based for better netbacks.
INTERMEDIATES Asian purified terephthalic acid prices tumbled $40/mt week on week to $710/mt CFR China Friday amid weak PTA fundamentals in China, despite a spate of unplanned shutdowns for PTA for this week. There were a total of four unscheduled shutdowns of PTA plants in China last week, resulting in around 40,000 mt PTA production loss, according to sources. Still, the unexpected production loss failed to support Asian PTA prices amid ample supply and tepid demand in China.
Petrochemicals: Ethylene falls further on slack supply/demand 2019/06/10 07:00
Aromatics
FOB Korea benzene prices and CFR Northeast Asia paraxylene (PX) prices softened in the first half of the week along with a fall in crude prices but after that, the market was firm. Since profitability of aromatics decreased, some makers reduced production of benzene and PX. As a result, perceptions of surplus supply receded and this supported the market.
Olefins
CFR Northeast Asia ethylene prices fell further. Since demand for derivatives was low, demand for ethylene was also subdued. Some petrochemical makers reduced production of derivatives or conducted maintenance of derivative facilities and kept selling ethylene. Under these circumstances, supply/demand was perceived to be slack. A cargo for delivery to China in July was reportedly traded at $810/mt during the week. On the other hand, in Korea, a naphtha cracker was reportedly experiencing troubles. This might affect shipment of spot and term cargoes from the facility but prices had not rebounded. Players only tried to check the situation. Movements had been few since the middle of the week due to holidays in Singapore, Korea, China and Taiwan.
The Asia propylene market fell slightly. In Northeast Asia, with the China domestic market on a downtrend at the beginning of the week, buying interest from end-users for imported cargoes was thin and the market softened. But later in the week, the market rebounded as buying interest from Korea was seen due to reports that operations at naphtha crackers in Korea were unstable. In Southeast Asia, few bids and offers were heard and activity was muted.
The Asia butadiene market declined. In Northeast Asia, deals were done at $1,050/mt for June delivery and at a discount of $15/mt to CFR Northeast Asia quotations for July delivery. Amid uncertain market directions ahead, some players wanted to negotiate based on market quotations. While supply was ample, derivative demand was not strong. As a result, market sentiment was weak.
Probably nothing will come out of G20 meeting. China has already said accepting Trump's demands means that the whole system of government have to be dismantled.
The Asian petrochemicals markets face a mixed outlook this week. While some products are expected to remain bearish amid weak demand, styrene monomer and butadiene may see support from tight supplies.
AROMATICS Demand for Asian benzene is expected to continue West-bound towards the US market, with August DDP USG discussions heard at 232-237 cents/gal, or $693.68-708.63/mt, sufficient to cover spot freight between South Korea and the US Gulf Coast heard at approximately $55/mt. Despite an open arbitrage, actual demand for August material may be limited, with supply tightness for prompt material supporting prices in the forward months, a source said. The domestic East China prices have gained steadily last week, following firm crude price and falling import volumes.
The CFR Taiwan/China benchmark paraxylene marker was down $42/mt to $817.67/mt last Friday, week on week. PX prices had regained some momentum towards the end of May, prompting Asian PX producers to defer any cuts in production rates. There were a few PTA plant turnarounds reported towards the end of the week, including a reduction in operating rates for the Yisheng Dalian facility, however, demand would not be very highly impacted, said market players. Some market players said some July demand may bleed into early August, since it may not be fulfilled on time, but August was not as tight as the previous month and traders felt that there was still some room to buy cargoes.
Demand in the downstream markets remained weak amid a lack of clear price direction as the market moves into the traditionally weak demand in the third quarter.
OLEFINS Asian ethylene would likely remain bearish this week, after falling to a 10-year low last Friday. The market would likely be pressured by weak demand as well as a falling global ethylene market. Last Friday, the CIF Northwest Europe ethylene price dived $139/mt week on week to $1,059/mt, S&P Global Platts data showed.
The Asian butadiene market closed the week up $45-50/mt Friday amid active spot trading. Platts assessed the CFR China and NEA markers at $1,140/mt and FOB Korea at $1,090/mt. South Korea's Hanwha Total continued to experience technical issues at its Daesan cracker, as it was unable to restart by the end of last week. Should South Korean cracker issues continue, prices may strengthen. Raw material butadiene prices rose, downstream styrene butadiene rubber prices inched up $5/mt to $1,400/mt CFR SEA and $1,350/mt CFR China due to weak demand and ample supply, causing SBR margins to fall further.
INTERMEDIATES Methanol prices in India and China will likely be bearish as a number of cargoes from Iran are expected to arrive in July. Iranian methanol plants were heard to be running at high operating rates. CFR India was assessed at $260/mt last Wednesday, down $2/mt week on week, while CFR China fell $5/mt to $265/mt Friday.
Asian monoethylene glycol prices will likely remain stable this week amid weak supply-demand fundamentals and support from upstream feedstock. MEG prices were rangebound between $531-534/mt CFR China last week. MEG inventories remained ample with around 1.35 million mt at the main ports of east China, typically enough to meet demand for a month, sources said. Still, there was little room for MEG prices to fall sharply as most Asian MEG producers were incurring losses, sources said. The profit margins were calculated to be minus $12/mt and minus $97/mt for naphtha-based and ethylene-based MEG respectively.
The Asian purified terephthalic acid market lacked direction amid a volatile upstream PX market. Feedstock PX soared $21/mt from June 7 to be assessed at $880.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Monday, and subsequently tumbled $63/mt to $817.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Friday. Demand was healthy with downstream polyester sector operating at 88% of the overall capacity in China, despite a seasonal lull in June.
The acrylonitrile market is expected to trend lower this week as buyers were waiting for a price correction. Some acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene producers in Asia have cut operating rates and said the Asian ACN price will need to slip to the low-$1,800s/mt before buyers can make further purchases. Asian ACN was assessed down $40/mt at $1,880/mt CFR Far East Asia last Tuesday. POLYMERS
Asian polyethylene would likely remain soft this week during a seasonal lull.
Market participants are also closely monitoring the restart of Malaysia's Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical steam cracker. According to sources close to the company, it will restart the unit in July. The cracker supplies ethylene to its downstream PE units.
Asian polypropylene would likely come down this week, after falling $10-$60/mt week on week last week. PP supplies in China were seen to be heavy, which triggered exports from China to Southeast Asia and India.
Petrochemicals: Jun 10-14: Ethylene falls further on weak demand 2019/06/17 07:00
Aromatics FOB Korea benzene prices temporarily decreased along with movements in crude prices but strengthened in the second half of the week. Paraxylene (PX) prices decreased sharply in the middle of the week. A fall in crude prices and PTA futures pressured the PX market. Further, supply was perceived to increase owing to restart of PX facilities in India and Vietnam. This was also cited as a bearish factor.
Olefins CFR Northeast Asia ethylene prices fell further. On the demand side, profitability of derivatives was improving but demand for derivatives was weak. For this reason, buying interest was not likely to strengthen. On the supply side, some petrochemical makers reduced production of derivatives and sell ethylene. In the middle of the week, July delivery cargoes were traded at $800-810/mt. Some end-users aimed to buy at a bottom price but supply/demand had not tightened and prices seemed not to have bottomed out.
