Malaysia’s GDP is expected to rebound in 2021, growing by +7%yoy, based on the recovery seen so far and the prospect of a successful containment of Covid-19 in the country and key trading partners. Inflation is anticipated to be at +2.2%yoy.
We also expect commodity based sectors to see an improvement. We forecast Brent crude oil price to average at USD 51.0/barrel and crude palm oil at RM2700/MT.
With the economy expected to recover and inflationary pressure to return, we expects Bank Negara to undertake a rate hike by 25bps in 4QCY21 with the Ringgit likely to appreciate further to USD/MYR 4.04 by year end of 2020.
Recent positive development from the vaccine and the expected economic recovery will lift corporate earnings and sentiment.
Hence, we have our FBM KLCI target for 2021 at 1,700 points, at an implied PER of 17.5x which equates to 0.5 standard deviation above of its 10-year historical average.
We believe that stocks with ties to economic performance will likely benefit the most. We believe that investors should consider switching attention to cyclicals. |
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