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KLSE: PETRONM       PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD
Last Price Avg Target Price   Upside/Downside Price Call
3.68 4.23     +0.55 (14.95%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
26/03/2020 2.87 3.02 +0.15 (5.23%) HOLD RHB-OSK Price Target News
28/02/2020 4.80 5.43 +0.63 (13.13%) BUY RHB-OSK Price Target News


Price Target Research Article/News (past 6 months)
26/03/2020  RHB-OSK Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing - Tougher Outlook; D/G to NEUTRAL
28/02/2020  RHB-OSK Petron Malaysia - Within Expectations; Keep BUY



  9 people like this.
 
lilychan mahathir and muhyidin become enemy die lo
04/03/2020 2:29 PM
Sslee Hahaha Philip,
I thought in Malaysia only TTB of ICAP fame comes close to Berkshire. I did not realize that PPHB BOD is equally of caliber and status as BOD of Berkshire. My mistakes again so please accept my sincere apology.

And if your wife happens to attend the PPHB AGM please convey the minority shareholders profound gratitude and thanks to PPHB BOD for growing shareholder equity from 100 million in net worth to 220 million in net worth from 2009 - 2019. As of the BOD kindness in giving 0.25 cents dividend for financial year end 2019 we will put it into good use by buying more PPHB shares.

Thank you
04/03/2020 5:09 PM
Sslee And by the way,
INSAS Net Worth base on NOSH - 693,348,000 Note: Treasure shares as on 30/6/2019: 30,327,291
30/6/2010: RM 823,482,000. NTA: RM 1.1877
30/6/2019: RM 1,737,078,000. NTA; RM 2.5053
Total dividend during this period 10.3 cents
Note: 2019 financial report:
11 ASSOCIATE COMPANIES
Represented by:-
Share of net assets; RM 323,080,000
Goodwill on acquisition RM 114,341,000
Total RM 437,421,000
Market value of quoted shares in Malaysia; RM 998,535,000 (30/6/2019) RM 1,376,569,000 (30/6/2018)

Thank you
04/03/2020 5:38 PM
Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) What is your point

Xinquan market value of quoted shares 27 million, net worth based on nosh 921,821,000.00
Parkson market value of quoted shares 197 million, net worth based on nosh 1,856,893,000.00
Asianpac market value of quoted shares 124 million, net worth based on nosh 1,532,243,000.00
Insas market value of quoted shares 437 million, net worth based on nosh 1,776,858,000.00

So many billion dollar companies with high net worth, shouldn't you buy them instead? More ACCOUNTING margin of safety in parkson and xinquan.

The important thing to apply here is logic and rational thinking.

Why are such high net worth companies having such depressed share price for so long? Is the market blind? Is everyone blind?

The answer is very simple and rational. Why don't you look at it like this, it's clear when I put it in this way:

QL networth 2 billion produces yearly revenue of 4.23 billion.
Yinson networth 1.7 billion produces orderbook of 40 billion in projects ( and counting).
Public Bank networth 43 billion produces yearly revenue of 22 billion.
Xinquan networth 921 million produces revenue of -110 million(after contra losses)
Parkson networth of 1.8 billion produces revenue of - 4 billion (if you contra losses)
Asiapac networth 1.5 billion produces yearly revenue of 190 million.
Amazon networth 225 billion produces yearly revenue of 280 billion.
Petronm networth 1.7 billion produces yearly revenue of 11.4 billion.
Insas networth 1.7 billion produces yearly revenue of 170 million.

If you use rational thinking,
1. A business is not a business of it doesn't make money
2. A business cannot generate more cash earnings than its revenue. ( Unless you start going to accounting land). Therefore revenue generation in terms assets is very important.
3. Efficient companies produces outperformance relative to its assets company's.
4. Retained earnings should be used to grow the business, else given out as dividends or share buybacks.

So, would you hire a cheap supervisor who can work OT every Saturday and Sunday, run entire plantation, do the job of 3 men? Or are you the type to overpay for a manager who works only 10% as hard as the supervisor, but has all the master degree, writes beautiful PowerPoint slides, but has no idea how to run the plantation?

I know what I would choose, rationally.

I hope you understand what I mean instead of repeating same old tired story.

Thank you.
04/03/2020 8:37 PM
Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) As for PPHB, it is a company with networth of 247 million generating 203 million in revenue.

That is your starting point of asking if this is a business you would buy.
Then you look at earnings, 23 million.
Then you look at asking price for the entire business, 140 million.
Then you look at the long term prospects of the company.

That is how you should look at a stock, as a business.

Not pieces of paper to buy and sell.

Rationally speaking, if you were looking to buy a car,

If someone wanted to sell you a Ferrari worth 1.7 million for 170 thousand cash, would you say OK I'll buy it now? Or would you look everywhere inside and out to find out why the car is selling so cheap?

And if the car has been in sale for the last 5 years with no buyer, I'll be doubly careful.

The trick is to understand the mileage on the car, and how far it can go before it breaks down.
04/03/2020 8:50 PM
Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) Insas price to value has been abnormal for the last 5 years. Imagine a company with 1.7b assets the same as petronm, except petronm did 11.4 billion revenue and 178 million in earnings. The other 1.7b asset company only does 200 million in revenue and 95 million in earnings. Which one is intrinsically safer and which would you pay more for?

Obviously both are companies I wouldn't touch because of the limited long term prospects.

But another story for another day.
04/03/2020 8:56 PM
Sslee Dear Philip,
Just to compare PPHB net worth (100 million to 220 million from 2009 – 2019) with Insas net worth 30/6/2010 - 30/6/2019: RM 823,482,000 (NTA: RM 1.1877) to RM 1,737,078,000 (NTA; RM 2.5053) or about average addition of 100 million per year.

Hopefully one day INSAS share of profit from associated companies (RM 22,412,000 as of 31/12/2019 half year result) + Fair value gain of financial assets (RM 3,087,000 as of 31/12/2019 half year result) will be higher that it revenue (Revenue RM 85,235,000 and Net profit RM 49,328,000 as of 31/12/2019 half year result) So is revenue more important or net profit more important?

Note: Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss: RM 234,104,000 (as of 31/12/2019)
If only Dato’ Wong is as smart investor as Philip and bought Stoneco, by now the fair value gain would be more than the revenue.

Beside INSAS wholly own subsidiary Credit & Leasing Sdn Bhd - Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 31 December 2019: RM 259,993,000. The interest rate charged by ICL is in accordance with the Money-lending Act, which is not more than 12% p.a. for secured loans and not more than 18% p.a. for unsecured loans.
Deposits with licensed banks and financial institutions RM 545,654,000
Cash and bank balances: RM 119,245,000
ASSOCIATE COMPANIES
Represented by:-
Share of net assets; RM 323,080,000
Goodwill on acquisition RM 114,341,000
Total RM 437,421,000
Market value of quoted shares in Malaysia; RM 998,535,000 (30/6/2019) RM 1,376,569,000 (30/6/2018)

TOTAL LIABILITIES: RM 506,107,000 with Total current assets RM 1,508,327,000
Is price for the entire Insas RM 0.75 x 663,006,342 under value, fair value or over value? I am happy to collect Insas every month.

QL net worth 2 billion produces yearly revenue of 4.23 billion and net-profit of about 250 million, a profit margin of 6%. With this type of revenue, how much working capital, borrowing, hard-work and clockwise planning required? Is price for the entire business 13,272 million fairly value?
Murphy’s Law: Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.
QL CEO Dr Chia work OT every Saturday and Sunday, run entire business, do the job of 6 men (planter, mall operator, fisherman, chicken & eggs farmer, retailer) as oppose to INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong holidaying in UK with family from 23th Jan 2019 to 10th Feb 2020.

Would you like to work your ass off like Dr Chia or work only 10% as hard as Dr Chia like Dato’ Wong?
By the way if you give out loan RM 259,993,000 and collect your interest monthly from lenders, may I ask from your collected revenue how many % is the net profit?

I hope you understand what I mean instead of repeating same old tired story as though you are the only one know how to look inside out of a car before buying it.

Thank you
Your statement, “A business cannot generate more cash earnings than its revenue” is wrong because share of profit from associate companies and fair value gain of financial assets did not generate revenue but give you pure profit and dividend received is pure cash. Hope you learn something new today
05/03/2020 7:32 AM
Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) This is why ql worth 13 billion and INSAS worth 400 million. Both have 2 billion in assets.
But one buys family Mart, boilermech, expands to Japan, Australia, Vietnam and Indonesia doubling revenue and profit.

The other sells roset at a loss. Tribecar lossess. Dome Cafe growth versus old Town coffee (frustrating). Melium group lossess. Vigcash losses sold. Biotech lossess.

If ceo continues to go on holiday they will not find another INARI.

Murphy's law is correct: those companies had already gone wrong, which is why for last 5 years share price has been languishing.

Yes I still like my superman family working hard for the company, no days off.

You can go on holiday.

>>>>>>>
QL CEO Dr Chia work OT every Saturday and Sunday, run entire business, do the job of 6 men (planter, mall operator, fisherman, chicken & eggs farmer, retailer) as oppose to INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong holidaying in UK with family from 23th Jan 2019 to 10th Feb 2020.
05/03/2020 7:59 AM
Sslee Hahaha Philip,
Imagine work only 10% as hard as Dr Chia can already growth Insas net –worth RM 823,482,000 (NTA: RM 1.1877) to RM 1,737,078,000 (NTA; RM 2.5053) from 2010-2019. What will happen if work 30% as hard as Dr. Chia?

New CEO Dato’ Wong streamline INSAS business units
1. The Group runs car rental businesses in Malaysia and Singapore. The car rental business in Singapore has become very challenging in recent years following the merger of Grab and Uber. The disposal is a rationalisation exercise of the car rental division by selling the Singapore car rental businesses back to the original founder and principal director, and the Company will re-acquire 100% ownership of the car rental businesses in Malaysia
2. Insas is an investor owing 49.6%sharein Numoni. Numoni is in the process of disposing a major subsidiary and upon completion, Numoni intends to wind down gradually and return surplus funds to its shareholders. INSAS continues to see Fintech as an important sector to invest into for the future. Most likely, Insas or a related company will acquire the remaining of Numoni’s IT related assets to position for the next Fintech wave.
3. Melium has taken many steps to turnaround its fashion and F&B businessunits for FY2020 including expansion of 3 fashion retail outlets (include MCM store in Pavilion & KLCC), 1 food & beverage outlet and closing down 2 loss making units
4. For the last few years, Insas Technology sets a nominal annual target of about RM20 million in volume for this form of trading. So far Insas Technology has not incurred any losses on this business due to careful trading. Based on our assessment, RM20 million is the annual revenue which the trading business can be conducted profitably and safely
5. DGSB is carrying out a rationalization exercise which includes the disposal of a substantial subsidiary in Thailand and has started investment in food technology based businesses in Malaysia.
6. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/huawei-appoints-omesti-authorised-system-integration-partner
Omesti Group of Malaysia has been appointed by Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. as Authorised System Integration Partner for its Business Support Systems (BSS), which is designed for application with customer relationship management (CRM) and billing activities, primarily in the telecommunications sector

Executive Director Dato’ Dr. Tan (a Masters and PhD in Engineering Science in 1981 and 1983 respectively from Harvard University, USA) Dato’ Dr. Tan has more than 30 years’ experience in the global IT and related high technology industries. He joined Insas Berhad in 1997 where he currently heads the Technology Division is task driven in growing INSAS Technology Division future growth in E&E, ICT, Fin-Tech, Biotech and Food-Tech.

Thank you
05/03/2020 8:59 AM
Philip ( what you can learn from RJ MITTE ) I think good luck to you la. You have fallen in love with your stock, which is the worse thing for investors. You no longer see the business for what it is off loading, rationalization, downsizing. Whatever others say you will still hug your INSAS to sleep. Good luck to you.

Your stock does not know you love it.
05/03/2020 1:01 PM
qqq33333333 2% fatality rate, 80% recovery rate . The other 18% neither dead nor recovered...................18% zombies?
05/03/2020 1:36 PM
Sslee Hahahaha qqq3,
I love my beloved Malaysia but my beloved Malaysia does not know I love her. So what should I do?
05/03/2020 1:56 PM
qqq33333333 sslee

this is politics before principles era............the right thing to do is self preservation..............every thing else is hypocrites.............
05/03/2020 2:18 PM
qqq33333333 Indonesia..............by 2050, the fourth largest economy in the world is Indonesia...................................
05/03/2020 2:20 PM
mf Dow set to drop more than 200 points at the open following Wednesday’s surge
05/03/2020 2:23 PM
qqq33333333 sslee

if u want to feel / see what patriotism, love your country, sacfrifice for the greater good, united, positive, happy, grateful, optimistic, help each other looks like...............go to China. There is no other place on earth showing more of such attitudes...........
05/03/2020 2:28 PM
Outliar Oh man, -19 cents for Ron95 and -21 cents for Ron 97, next QR GG?
06/03/2020 6:04 PM
ivanlau new government will press down the oil price in order to gain back support. But kasihan the petronm & hengyuan , both will be the victim in this game. petronm c u below 4 .....
06/03/2020 9:05 PM
Choivo Capital When Phillip is being civil. I find myself agreeing with him.

One of the hardest things I've ever learnt is buy earnings, not nta. I'm not a liquidator.

All my nta co's are the one's I find most irritated by right now. When petronm drops, I smile abit while being a little angry that my position is so big, that I don't feel comfortable buying more.

When plenitude falls. I just feel irritated. Because I don't feel like buying more.
06/03/2020 11:21 PM
Icon8888 What happen ? Crack spread decline ?
07/03/2020 10:51 AM
mf https://www.bharian.com.my/dunia/amerika/2020/03/662775/kapal-terkandas-di-perairan-21-positif-covid-19
07/03/2020 10:54 AM
stockraider If u buy into earnings like Petron....anytime it can disappear loh....with current big fall in crude price....Petron will be hit with a huge inventory impairment loh...!!

I think the key is invest base on margin of safety is the answer...not necessary just earnings loh....!!

posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 6, 2020 11:21 PM | Report Abuse

When Phillip is being civil. I find myself agreeing with him.

One of the hardest things I've ever learnt is buy earnings, not nta. I'm not a liquidator.

All my nta co's are the one's I find most irritated by right now. When petronm drops, I smile abit while being a little angry that my position is so big, that I don't feel comfortable buying more.

When plenitude falls. I just feel irritated. Because I don't feel like buying more.


Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 7, 2020 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

What happen ? Crack spread decline ?
07/03/2020 10:58 AM
Icon8888 Actually petron did very well in latest Q If not because of derivative losses of RM25 mil
07/03/2020 11:11 AM
stockraider it is coming q1 2020, petron will losses will be big bcos of sudden huge collapse in crude price mah...!!

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 7, 2020 11:11 AM | Report Abuse

Actually petron did very well in latest Q If not because of derivative losses of RM25 mil

Posted by stockraider > Mar 7, 2020 10:58 AM | Report Abuse X

If u buy into earnings like Petron....anytime it can disappear loh....with current big fall in crude price....Petron will be hit with a huge inventory impairment loh...!!

I think the key is invest base on margin of safety is the answer...not necessary just earnings loh....!!

posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 6, 2020 11:21 PM | Report Abuse

When Phillip is being civil. I find myself agreeing with him.

One of the hardest things I've ever learnt is buy earnings, not nta. I'm not a liquidator.

All my nta co's are the one's I find most irritated by right now. When petronm drops, I smile abit while being a little angry that my position is so big, that I don't feel comfortable buying more.

When plenitude falls. I just feel irritated. Because I don't feel like buying more.

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 7, 2020 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

What happen ? Crack spread decline ?
07/03/2020 11:14 AM
Icon8888 350 buy buy buy
07/03/2020 11:39 AM
mf Oil plunges 10% for worst day in more than 5 years after OPEC+ fails to agree on a massive...
07/03/2020 12:16 PM
EatCoconutCanWin political+crude tumble= disaster..TP1.00
09/03/2020 8:34 AM
ankahill This time when give dividen? :<[
09/03/2020 4:08 PM
gsi723 if oil to remain steadily low... refinery will be Ok. (after the initial sharp drop)
13/03/2020 7:28 AM
sheldon agreed with gsi723.

1st Qtr results however will be a mixture of puss, shit & vomit.
13/03/2020 11:50 AM
13/03/2020 12:46 PM
mf Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, isteri Perdana Menteri Kanada, Justin Trudeau, disahkan dijangkiti penyakit #COVID-19, memetik kenyataan Pejabat Perdana Menteri.

Bagaimanapun, setakat ini Trudeau tidak menunjukkan sebarang gejala yang berkaitan dengan penyakit itu.
13/03/2020 12:49 PM
mf Stock futures drop — hit ‘limit down’ — even as Fed slashes rates; Dow futures off 1,000 points
16/03/2020 1:37 PM
Junichiro That's is why rate cut is not everything. Fed has lost all its bullets by doing so being pressured by Dotart. What now? Dow set to fly ? I think the worst is yet to come.
16/03/2020 2:40 PM
skyea https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/16/explosion-at-petrol-refining-complex-in-johor-leaves-four-dead-one-missing
16/03/2020 2:59 PM
boy2ts insurance claiming?
18/03/2020 10:35 AM
Alex™ small fire only. i tot europe plant fire. if yes, can buy hrc
18/03/2020 3:43 PM
Johnng8882020 Oil price drop to 23usd. Petron can make money or loss more since Malaysia is using fix price. Anyone can answer my question?? Tq
19/03/2020 12:18 AM
sheldon Due to the sharp drop in crude, Petron may incur negative crack spreads because it bought high but have to sell the processed stuff low. E.g. RON 95 down from 2.08 to 1.89 to 1.82.

Likewise for jet fuel. In addition, travel ban means lower demand for petrol/diesel (although many M'sians have chosen to ignore it).
19/03/2020 5:44 AM
mikeazk I agree on demand drop which will impact profit. But the pump price margin is fixed by gomen. If low price like now, oil co still need to pay duty but if oil price high then gomen subsidy. On negative spread, i think its cyclical, now they buy cheap crude, once mops increase back, they will get back much better spread to compensate losses during the price drop.
19/03/2020 3:13 PM
Cakes Moon RM2.50 too cheap to be true. Sailang.
19/03/2020 11:01 PM
KAQ4468 2.50 Cheap mehhhh?
19/03/2020 11:19 PM
onlyhuat888 quarantine time now nobody outside petrol station earning drop lo...
22/03/2020 5:35 PM
James Ng https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2020-03-23-story-h1485605733.jsp
[转贴] [PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD:原油和制成品之间的价差缩小] - James的股票投资James Share Investing
23/03/2020 9:11 AM
johnbrooks Not going to be a good year for any refinery in Asia especially. Now they are losing money with every barrel they produce (refer to article below). Just be prepared for a bad quarter in 1H20.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asian-refiners-profits-transpor...
31/03/2020 12:27 AM
Cakes Moon Who followed me & buy in at RM2.50. Tomorrow be prepared to earn 100%. Be greedy when others are fearful.
02/04/2020 10:55 PM
signalmw 沙特条件是 ”世界产油商需要一起减产". 剑指页岩油商和俄罗斯。
03/04/2020 12:22 AM
RedEagle LONDON (Bloomberg) -- The OPEC+ coalition is pushing for other major oil producers to join it in a deep reduction of global crude output and stem the historic rout in prices, a move that sent futures sharply higher.

A global cut of 10 million barrels a day is a realistic goal, according to a delegate, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has already scheduled a virtual meeting on Monday and wants other nations to join talks as soon as possible.

The 10 million figure was first touted by President Donald Trump on Thursday, who called for a coordinated production cut.

He gave no indication whether the US would take part. For Saudi Arabia, it’s essential that producers including the Americans join in.

Trump is meeting oil executives later on Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting his country’s oil executives too.

Oil surged on the news. But there are enormous obstacles to any deal.

Russia was quick to deny on Thursday that any agreement had been reached -- although it had said for weeks it’s open to talks.

Even if an accord can be struck, a cut of 10 million barrels would barely dent the glut of oil that has been created by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

Traders estimate the lost demand could be as high as 35 million barrels a day.

And so far, there is no sign of any movement toward a truce in the ground war. Saudi Arabia is ramping up exports, as it promised to do.

But diplomatically the picture is more nuanced.

For several days, Saudi Arabia was wrong-footed by Russia, as Moscow sounded open to talks and blamed the price collapse on the kingdom.

Now, by saying it’s ready to cut, the kingdom has put the onus on Moscow, forcing the Kremlin to reverse their opposition to cuts, or be blamed -- by Trump among others -- for the damage.

Oil Jumps

Brent crude, which jumped more than 40% on Thursday after Trump’s announcement before paring gains, rose 11% on Friday. It’s still down 50% this year as the virus fight grounds planes and shutters huge swaths of the global economy.

In some corners of the market, physical prices have gone negative and some producers are expected to start suspending output as there’s not enough space to store the excess crude.

Tankers have filled up fast as ships are being used as storage rather than transport.

Oil-producing nations around the world are feeling the pain of the price war, which started a month ago after Russia refused to take part in deeper cuts, saying it would only extend the previous deal.

Saudi Arabia aggressively discounted its crude days later, in a move to seize customers from Russia’s traditional markets.

Shale producers in the US are struggling and national finances are under pressure. Russia, for example, is now expecting oil prices at US$20 a barrel this year and will ramp up borrowing to make up for a budget shortfall.

Saudi Arabia will also have to make deep budget cuts as oil accounts for the vast majority of its revenue.

The kingdom’s next move in the price war could come as soon as Sunday, when it sets official prices for its crude exports. The operation could be postponed, however -- as it was last month -- to avoid prejudicing the Monday meeting.

Washington’s Options

Trump will meet on Friday oil executives, who are battling among themselves as to what the administration should do.

The White House has considered tariffs on foreign oil imports to protect US producers, though the idea is opposed by some top Trump advisers led by Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter.

The idea of a US production cut, probably executed by capping exports, is also on the table at the White House, though many oil industry representatives have warned that the approach would cause the US to cede the very "energy dominance” Trump has repeatedly celebrated.

Trump said on Thursday he expected a deal -- but made no mention of any role for the US.

"It would be great for Russia, it would be great for Saudi Arabia -- I hope they make that deal but that’s what they told me,” he said. "Can something happen where it doesn’t happen? I guess? In which case there’s another alternative, but I’d rather not see the other alternative.”

In his tweet, Trump said he had spoken to Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who had in turn spoken with Putin. But a Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the conversation hadn’t happened and that no production cut had been agreed to with the Saudis.

Russia hasn’t yet confirmed its attendance at the OPEC+ meeting. But Russia has long said it’s open to talks, and the industry may find itself forced into production cuts anyway because of the slump in demand, potentially bolstering the case for a coordinated response.
03/04/2020 9:25 PM
Junichiro The White House has considered tariffs on foreign oil imports to protect US producers, though the idea is opposed by some top Trump advisers led by Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter.

Opec can just price their oil in JPY, bringing the Petro-Dollar to an end.
04/04/2020 9:52 AM
ivanlau Due to crack spread, foresee coming Qr result will be very very bad , beware...........
06/04/2020 8:46 PM

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