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KLSE: BAT       BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO MALAYSIA BHD
Last Price Avg Target Price   Upside/Downside Price Call
14.58 13.33     -1.25 (8.57%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
09/06/2021 14.40 11.75 -2.65 (18.40%) SELL HLG Price Target News
01/06/2021 15.06 14.80 -0.26 (1.73%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
01/06/2021 15.06 11.75 -3.31 (21.98%) SELL HLG Price Target News
23/02/2021 13.62 11.75 -1.87 (13.73%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
15/02/2021 13.70 16.30 +2.60 (18.98%) BUY MACQUARIE GROUP Price Target News
11/02/2021 13.44 11.45 -1.99 (14.81%) SELL KENANGA Price Target News
11/02/2021 13.44 11.75 -1.69 (12.57%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
11/02/2021 13.44 16.20 +2.76 (20.54%) BUY AffinHwang Price Target News
06/01/2021 14.12 11.05 -3.07 (21.74%) SELL KENANGA Price Target News


Price Target Research Article/News (past 6 months)
09/06/2021  HLG British American Tobacco - Premature Dawn?
01/06/2021  KENANGA British American Tobacco (M) - A Positive Start
01/06/2021  HLG British American Tobacco - Growth Has Likely Not Yet Arrived
23/02/2021  HLG British American Tobacco - VFM Continues to Rise
15/02/2021  MACQUARIE GROUP BAT Malaysia’s FY20 Net Profit Ahead of Estimates
11/02/2021  KENANGA British American Tobacco (M) - FY20 Beats Expectations
11/02/2021  HLG British American Tobacco (M) - VFM Cannibalising the Industry
11/02/2021  AffinHwang British American Tobacco (BUY, Maintain) - 4Q20: Within Expectations
06/01/2021  KENANGA Consumer - Happy Cautious New Year



  9 people like this.
 
auditorandconsultant Finally, I have decided to join BAT this big family after studying since Jan 2021. Yesterday, I bought some at the entry price of RM14.32.

I trust the top management from BAT.

EPS - 2018 (164.20 cents), 2019 (121.00 cents), 2020 (84.70 cents)

FCF per Share - 2018 (161.77 cents), 2019 (108.57 cents), 2020 (62.09 cents)

I am not too worried about the decreasing EPS and FCF because the above result has not taken E-Cigarette sales in future into consideration.

With the Company's plan to cut cost (plan to move some services to Pakistan for Shared Services) and business expansion, I have no worry about this counter.

Happy to join this big family with everyone here.
09/06/2021 12:41 PM
williamh Welcome to the big family,united is strength ,sail smoothly
09/06/2021 1:56 PM
williamh These was how it works lately…firstly the local IB sold down their portfolio at recent high and buy back at manageable low,so stage 1 was sell high buy back low,stage 2 is to push up again and after collecting the dividend on x date,sell down again that will be stage 2,therefore they c made twice..no big deals
09/06/2021 2:04 PM
auditorandconsultant I foresee BAT to become a multibagger soon. I believe in 2 years time, BAT could go up RM30

I am very positive and will hold tightly.

开番,指日可待。
09/06/2021 2:12 PM
Ntpboon 闲来无事..................
来打油.....................

----------------------------------

英美烟草出业绩,
公司照样给股息。
股价却跌不给力,
为何重来再起立?

--------------------------------------
09/06/2021 3:27 PM
lskmgnt Auditorandconsultant. Welcome on board
09/06/2021 6:03 PM
williamh 业绩好你追我跑,双向出擎拿股息,高卖底買才夠力,別再停留拿股息,數據游戲把你气,从此坐上雲端上天去。
09/06/2021 8:52 PM
240902 direct translation from si fu Williamh......If you have a good performance, you chase me, and you can get dividends in both directions. Selling at a high bottom is enough to buy. Don't stop to get dividends. Data games will piss you off, and you will go to the sky from now on.
10/06/2021 9:36 AM
Pinky Hmm @auditor, 5.94% yield at current price, quarterly dividends. Interesting...

But no growth to be had here la...
10/06/2021 11:45 AM
auditorandconsultant @Pinky,

I am parking my money in BAT in view of the future plan of BAT to expand into E-Cigarette upon granting of licence to operate E-Cigarette business after the resumption of Parliament.

There is a solid potential fundamental in near future because it is the trend for E-Cigarette now.

Look at RLX Technology listed in Nasdaq.
10/06/2021 2:38 PM
fengpinglangjin The research house said that the management also shared that there were progressive discussions with Malaysian authorities to set regulations over nicotine vape products. Some of the items highlighted by industry players include the need to establish a list of banned ingredients and dosage of ingredients in vape liquids, standard of devices alongside requirement for players to obtain approvals around the sale of nicotine vape products.

The framework is still subject to finalisation, nevertheless it reckoned there was a chance that the government may introduce regulations on nicotine vape products as early as the second half of the year.
10/06/2021 2:43 PM
auditorandconsultant @fengpinglangjin

Thank you for your sharing.

I am positive towards the future development and growth of BAT. Top management will do something to drive result for the next few quarters.
10/06/2021 3:03 PM
UncleFollower Updates on nicotine-based vape framework

Discussions with regulators for the legalisation of nicotine-based vapour
products are in the final stages, we understand. Details are scant at the
moment, but BAT hopes to launch its own vapour product by end-2021.
10/06/2021 3:06 PM
Lanmum @auditorandconsultant, nice sharing. Thanks
10/06/2021 5:59 PM
Lanmum Bat or vape is not pekebun taste. Finally you able to ditch him. Congrats..
10/06/2021 6:02 PM
pang72 HLG gave m warning target 11.75..
10/06/2021 6:04 PM
pang72 Retailers always dekil one..
11.75 then lppl..
10/06/2021 6:04 PM
auditorandconsultant @pang72,

Part of my principles, bankers who made sell or buy call would normally make call in favour of their own interests because I believe in share market there is no free lunch. In other words, HL IB would like to collect cheap tickets. My two cents.

I ignore the Sell Call of TP RM11.75 set by HL Investment Bank.

This is part of my principles and I will continue to hold tightly BAT at this juncture.

However, I do respect your stand. You can use HL Investment Bank's advice as the basis of your decision in investment.

Good luck.
11/06/2021 1:03 AM
Pinky @auditor I love you

I'm getting into BAT with you today
11/06/2021 11:17 AM
Lanmum @auditorandconsultant, the HLB target and price now is big big gap. A bit scare. Good, Pinky you add on
11/06/2021 11:20 AM
Pinky @Lanmum, for example, IBs punya TP for TNB is always way above traded price

And when you look at the fundamentals, and current economic climate...

When things are normal, all people go to work, residentials consumption go down, commercials and industrials consumption go back up

Now FMCO, many people WFH, the situation terbalik

Some IBs got vested interest (they want u to buy to push up price)
Also, some IB analysts are armchair analysts really

I'd rather buy BAT with generous dividend payout, and little to no capital expenditure requirement. At least I'm assured that the dividend is sustainable

No smoking? People will always smoke wan la!

Stay at home, bad economy, lagi mau rokok lebih! XD
11/06/2021 11:23 AM
Lanmum Haha. Yea. Somke more at home. Like TGUAN target is very pleasant & comfortable. This one very stress. Appreciate you guys opinions. Thanks for sharing Pinky and auditorandconsultant
11/06/2021 11:32 AM
Lanmum But looking at the chart is good buy now.??
11/06/2021 11:35 AM
Pinky Big fall after announce FMCO. Now seems decent to enter. Furthermore next week ex dividend 21 sen!
11/06/2021 11:45 AM
Pinky But BAT is a totally different creature to auditor's previous call TGUAN

TGUAN is a growth story

BAT? Hmm...of all the people I know, most still smoke traditional tobacco. E-ciggies acceptance among my friends, not many. Less than 5. XD
11/06/2021 1:23 PM
Edison Chen 政府腐败贪污 一日私烟没有解决 就回不到想当年的价位 丢
11/06/2021 1:57 PM
tzeying11108 Wait only lo
11/06/2021 2:13 PM
auditorandconsultant @Lanmum
@Pinky

I will just wait patiently. I bought some BAT shares on Tuesday at RM14.32. You had just acquired right.

Although the price of RM14 above but below RM15 is not the best entry price, I am willing to park some of my $$$ here to earn Dividends and to wait for opportunities.

Top Management of BAT will not do nothing and I believe RM14 should be fair enough for a good start. I am planning to hold BAT and I believe BAT will become a multibagger soon, i.e. RM30.

******************Extracted from eNanYang*****************************************************************

(吉隆坡10日讯)一名金融与经济分析员认为,烟酒和赌博是国家经济的关键贡献领域,因此政府应确保这些行业不会因疫情而严重受挫。

分析员说,这些行业为国家创造许多就业机会,总共有数十万名国人直接和间接就业,也对经济产生积极的乘数效应,还有外来直接投资 (FDI)。

分析员邦嘉古马是针对我国于本月1日实施全面封锁行动管控令(FMCO)的问题,发表文告表达观点。

他说,FMCO实施以来,必需品或非必需品之说引起的混淆与不确定性,及模糊的SOP对商业不是好事。再说,上述3领域因为政治化及不实际的辞藻,常在这类模糊的政策下首当其冲。

他认为,主要是向这些“罪恶行业”寂施的国产税,是政府重要的收入来源。

“例如在2020年,政府征收近100亿令吉的税务,占2020年征收的419亿令吉间接税务的约23.5%。”

“我不是在谈论要给予这些行业援助或特殊融资,而是确保这些行业能继续以纳税的形式,为政府提供直接和间接的收入。

“这些行业需要复苏并继续为我们的国库做出重大贡献,是明确而实在的政策,以减少运营中断。财政稳定对这些行业非常重要及毋庸置疑,若现阶段提高酒、烟和赌博的国产税,等于杀死会下金蛋的鹅。”

立法打击非法烟草

他建议政府通过大胆的2021年预算案执行控制措施及加强执法,以解决非法烟草问题,并制定可以有效打击非法烟草的法律。

他说,走私烟酒继续影响合法的厂商的业绩,而非法互联网赌博则祸害有执照的经营者。

****************************************************************************************************************

After the FMCO and this pandemic, I believe that Government will do something to safeguard the interest of business related to Cigarette and Liquor.

Look! Almost one quarter of Tax was derived from the total tax collected in year 2020.

Do you think government will allow BAT (cash cow) to suffer?

I am very very positive and I believe some positive movements will be implemented by the Government soon.

BAT - Stable Blue Chips + Sustainable and High Dividends + Potential Growth and Development which will then drive exponential spike in share price very soon (in my humble opinion 1-3 years)
11/06/2021 2:26 PM
wkc5657 liquor always kena hantam by opportunistic politicians, easy target because of religious haram....

but smoking, despite haram, more addictive and much much harder to quit....so will give lager room for survival.....
11/06/2021 2:48 PM
auditorandconsultant @wkc5657

Agreed!

We just look forward to seeing exponential growth and development of BAT

PLUS witnessing the skyrocketing of BAT share price very very soon!

@Lanmum @Pinky

Welcome on board
11/06/2021 2:59 PM
JJchan June will be a fantastic month for BAT-----None of the Road Stalls can Sell legal Or illegal Cigs
during One Month Lock Down.
Almost 35--40% of local Brand Or illegal Brand are Sold thru Road Side Stall

Keeping finger crossed that BAT's 2Q results will Fly out 1 July ( Very Good Results always Out
very Fast )
12/06/2021 9:25 AM
williamh Will be challenging 18.20 in the 2Q announcement by mid July.
12/06/2021 8:56 PM
JJchan https://www.barrons.com/articles/philip-morris-stock-buyback-repurchase-dividend-51623420505

I can give up Dividend if BAT follows Philip Morris to Buy-Back Shares. Management controls
50%, if buyback 20% from Market there is only 85.8mil shares in the market. But Top 30 shares
holders are holding about 20% so technically only 28.6mil free Float-----Can beat Nestle 138 price
in 6months
13/06/2021 5:51 PM
JJchan BAT controls 55% of Malaysia Market and just a Cash-Cow. Management are Not interest to
raise Cash( RI ) to expand into others products beside Cigs and Vape----Having a 500 share
price just show prestige Image after all Cigs cannot Advertise in Sport, Entertainment or what-not about its Image.
13/06/2021 6:00 PM
williamh Positioning for Q2 coming July,dividend very good,buy on dipping
14/06/2021 11:08 AM
Lanmum Tough operating landscape but BAT offers attractive dividend yield
Tan Siew Mung
/
theedgemarkets.com

June 15, 2021 21:14 pm +08
Tough operating landscape but BAT offers attractive dividend yield
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (June 15): Earnings prospects of British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Bhd (BAT) are not expected to be that rosy given the tough battle with illicit cigarettes, in addition to the competition from its new rival — vape.

However, CGS-CIMB noted that while there is little capital appreciation potential left after its share price has climbed 19% year from this year's low, BAT offers a rather decent dividend yield.

According to the research house, BAT's dividend yield would be in the range of 5.9% to 6.7% for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2021 (FY21) until FY23.

The dividend yield is based on an annual net profit forecast of RM289 million in FY21, an almost 22% year-on-year growth. However, it expects the cigarette maker's net profit to be on a decline in the following two years to RM270 million in FY22 and RM253 million in FY23, noting that the downside risks are shrinking sales volumes and pressure on margins as more smokers opt for cheaper products.

This translates into a dividend per share of 99 sen in FY21, 93 sen in FY22 and 87 sen in FY23.

Commenting on the operating landscape, according to CGS-CIMB, BAT told the analyst briefing that the group began to see its sales climb in March, two months after the government banned cigarette trans-shipment, which was blamed for providing a conduit for smuggling cigarettes.

BAT guided that illegal syndicates are now shifting their smuggling channels from ports to smaller jetties, and it is still too early to celebrate a win in the battle against the illicit trade.

"Still, the group expressed confidence that it can generate more quarterly year-on-year sales volume growth in FY21, as it believes that some smokers have reverted to their former favourite legal brands," CGS-CIMB wrote in a research note today.

That said, CGS-CIMB highlighted that BAT is cognisant of the high pricing for legal cigarettes.

"It echoed our view, saying that this 'honeymoon period' of sales growth may come to a halt someday, especially since many Malaysians' incomes are strained due to the economic impact of the series of Movement Control Order imposed since March 18, 2020," it wrote.

The research house commented that although the lockdown may have lured some lapsed smokers and caused people to light up more often, much of the sales growth has come from margin-eroding value-for-money (VFM) cigarettes.

BAT revealed at the briefing that VFM lines' share of sales was about 15% in 1QFY21 and has been growing by about three to four percentage points per annum.

Meanwhile, cheaper and unregulated electronic cigarettes and vaporiser products have also grown in popularity, as according to BAT, vape's share of Malaysia's enlarged tobacco market has risen from about 9% in 2019 to about 12% currently.

According to CGS-CIMB, BAT has appealed to the government to draft a regulation on vape but there has not been much progress as the government has been tied up with fighting against Covid-19 and Parliament has been suspended since January 2021.

BAT's share price was unchanged at RM14.56 today, valuing the group at RM4.16 billion.

Kathy Fong
15/06/2021 9:59 PM
newbie2828 how many peoole can afford a pack of dunhill at RM18? is e-cig legislation a priority for current government? if government can afford to shut beer and casino, meams no hurry for e-cig tax. as for curruption fighting, they are hammering own toe, its a miracle if mouth is biting its own finger.
15/06/2021 10:30 PM
newbie2828 cimb is right, the only benefit is 5-6 % div thats it, little room for capital gain. down side for next 2 yr ahead.
15/06/2021 10:32 PM
fengpinglangjin 最新进展:

已表明有意在我国开拓电子烟业务的英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费股),其美国电子烟售价处于可负担的11美元(约45令吉),而烟弹则要价2.50美元(约10令吉)。

我们相信该公司的电子烟弹定价,能比起本地现有对手更具竞争力。

凭借知名度和全国销路,该公司潜在电子烟产品有望赢得可观市占率,但目前仍要先等卫生部表态;英美烟草已为电子烟产品推出做好准备。
16/06/2021 8:34 AM
fengpinglangjin ‎British American Tobacco (BAT, 4162, motherboard consumer stock), which has expressed an interest in expanding its e-cigarette business in China, sells its U.S. e-cigarettes for an affordable $11 (about RM45) and bombs for $2.50 (about RM10). ‎
‎ We believe that the company's e-cigarette pricing can be more competitive than existing local rivals. ‎
‎ ‎
‎ With its popularity and national sales, the company's potential e-cigarette products are expected to win a significant market share, but the Ministry of Health is still waiting for a ‎
‎ statement;‎。
16/06/2021 8:35 AM
Pinky Dunhill RM17.40 expensive

But if u read other analysts' comments, BAT is gaining market share too at the mid-low segments.

And don't say expensive, smokers are not known to trade down i.e. lost job or reduced income still will smoke and stick to their fav brands

I cut down on food I cut down drinking yet I still smoke my RM17.40 Marlboro reds
16/06/2021 10:09 AM
Lanmum Wah Pinky, you smoke Marlboro?. You have to switch to dunhill, old man brands now
16/06/2021 10:20 AM
Pinky @Lanmum the new Value-For-Money brand under BAT umbrella, KYO is not bad, but I don't really like charcoal filtered cigarettes. I read from the analyst reports that it's doing not bad. RM12 brand.
16/06/2021 11:47 AM
Lanmum By the way .. I'm wondering you got reading report from Affin Hwang Capital in i3 here lately? The latest I check is on Sunway 31stMay. Seems there is no more report.
16/06/2021 11:51 AM
IronShirt https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/579270

Parliament Opens, BAT hit Limit-Up
16/06/2021 8:14 PM
batman666 Possible
16/06/2021 8:57 PM
wkc5657 don't get over your heads, parliament open focus on pandemic management, then economic priorities, then maybe new legislations (if got time)....vape/ecig bill, likely only after next GE....
17/06/2021 12:11 PM
Pinky Keep for yield, capital gains treat as windfall...
17/06/2021 12:17 PM
newbie2828 pariament open straight away gang fight to pull down the pm, the rest leave it to your imagination.
17/06/2021 1:21 PM
JJchan who is jacking up price----last min
19/06/2021 5:52 PM

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