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KLSE: UMW       UMW HOLDINGS BHD
Last Price Avg Target Price   Upside/Downside Price Call
5.85 6.12     +0.27 (4.62%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
12/02/2019 5.86 5.80 -0.06 (1.02%) HOLD KENANGA Price Target News
04/02/2019 5.83 5.54 -0.29 (4.97%) HOLD AmInvest Price Target News
16/01/2019 5.72 6.60 +0.88 (15.38%) BUY MIDF Price Target News
03/12/2018 5.11 6.80 +1.69 (33.07%) BUY MIDF Price Target News
03/12/2018 5.11 5.80 +0.69 (13.50%) BUY KENANGA Price Target News
03/12/2018 5.11 6.88 +1.77 (34.64%) BUY JF APEX Price Target News
03/12/2018 5.11 5.60 +0.49 (9.59%) BUY HLG Price Target News
03/12/2018 5.11 5.54 +0.43 (8.41%) HOLD AmInvest Price Target News
03/12/2018 5.11 6.45 +1.34 (26.22%) BUY Affin Hwang Capital Price Target News
01/11/2018 4.78 5.50 +0.72 (15.06%) BUY Rakuten Price Target News
01/11/2018 4.78 6.50 +1.72 (35.98%) BUY MIDF Price Target News
01/11/2018 4.78 5.50 +0.72 (15.06%) BUY KENANGA Price Target News
01/11/2018 4.78 6.72 +1.94 (40.59%) BUY JF APEX Price Target News
01/11/2018 4.78 5.35 +0.57 (11.92%) BUY HLG Price Target News
01/11/2018 4.78 5.36 +0.58 (12.13%) HOLD AmInvest Price Target News
31/10/2018 4.70 7.11 +2.41 (51.28%) BUY MIDF Price Target News
31/10/2018 4.70 5.35 +0.65 (13.83%) BUY HLG Price Target News
22/10/2018 4.53 6.30 +1.77 (39.07%) BUY Affin Hwang Capital Price Target News
05/10/2018 4.70 5.60 +0.90 (19.15%) HOLD AmInvest Price Target News
30/08/2018 6.08 7.11 +1.03 (16.94%) BUY MIDF Price Target News
30/08/2018 6.08 6.72 +0.64 (10.53%) HOLD JF APEX Price Target News
30/08/2018 6.08 6.28 +0.20 (3.29%) HOLD HLG Price Target News
30/08/2018 6.08 6.29 +0.21 (3.45%) HOLD AmInvest Price Target News
30/08/2018 6.08 5.90 -0.18 (2.96%) HOLD Affin Hwang Capital Price Target News


Price Target Research Article/News (past 6 months)
12/02/2019  KENANGA UMW Holdings Bhd - Expecting Weak 4Q18 on Muted Demand
04/02/2019  AmInvest UMW Holdings - Eyes on volume
16/01/2019  MIDF UMW - Banking on Record Perodua TIV
03/12/2018  MIDF UMW Holdings - Shifting Into Fifth Gear
03/12/2018  KENANGA UMW Holdings - 9M18 Above Expectations
03/12/2018  JF APEX UMW Holdings Berhad - Better Year Ahead
03/12/2018  HLG UMW Holdings - To leverage on Automotive new launches
03/12/2018  AmInvest UMW Holdings - Stronger across the board
03/12/2018  Affin Hwang Capital UMW Holdings - High Five for 9M18 Results!
01/11/2018  Rakuten UMW Holdings Bhd - All is fine....
01/11/2018  MIDF UMW Holdings - Moving on
01/11/2018  KENANGA UMW Holdings Bhd - Expecting Stronger 3Q18/9M18 but In Line
01/11/2018  JF APEX UMW Holdings Berhad - Acquisition Falls Through
01/11/2018  HLG UMW Holdings - Lapse of MBMR and Perodua Offer
01/11/2018  AmInvest UMW Holdings - End to a dragged-out affair
31/10/2018  MIDF UMW - May Hit a Snag With MBM Deal
31/10/2018  HLG UMW Holdings - Lapse of MBMR and Perodua offer
22/10/2018  Affin Hwang Capital UMW Holdings - It Is Time; Upgrade to BUY
05/10/2018  AmInvest UMW Holdings - Modest auto prospects to drive FY19 growth
30/08/2018  MIDF UMW Holdings - Core Earnings Doubled
30/08/2018  JF APEX UMW Holdings Berhad - Steady Margins Boost Earnings
30/08/2018  HLG UMW Holdings - Stable QoQ
30/08/2018  AmInvest UMW Holdings - Auto segment buoyed by Myvi and stronger margins
30/08/2018  Affin Hwang Capital UMW Holdings - An Unsustainably Strong Quarter



  4 people like this.
 
TakeProfits This one real waste of time..useless and hopeless. All counters bursa gone to Holland.
16/10/2018 00:03
TakeProfits Yar all talk sapu below 4! Then they will sapu you at 2.50..hopeless
16/10/2018 00:05
hewusana Can go below 4?
16/10/2018 00:11
apolloang ask umno lo.....hahaha
16/10/2018 00:22
hewusana Apolloang, why ask umno.. not PH.. now should br under them..?
16/10/2018 14:36
hewusana I think slim chance to be below rm4..this round..
May wait for next drop..
16/10/2018 14:37
hewusana Abt 2 yr ago at RM 4.5.. that time must ask umno
16/10/2018 14:39
BULL1000BEAR1000 Ask the crocodiles
16/10/2018 16:01
TakeProfits Eeh, govt spokesman advised no cgt on share capital gain. So DON'T HOPE BELOW 4 NOW. MIMPI ARH!! Hewusana, you can.wait and buy at 5..kikiki..haha..
16/10/2018 17:24
BULL1000BEAR1000 Tomorrow will be as strong as Toyota Tacoma, Toyota 4runner and Toyota Sequoia.
17/10/2018 19:56
cheeyong Tomorrow Toyota Rush is coming... very nice:)
17/10/2018 22:30
BULL1000BEAR1000 https://www.carwow.co.uk/news/2019-toyota-rav4-price-specs-and-release-date-3906


Although there are no official figures as yet, you can expect to pay around £28,000 for a basic petrol and around £30,000 for a hybrid when the RAV4 goes on sale in early 2019.
18/10/2018 15:51
BULL1000BEAR1000 Almost 100k for plastic dashboard. Nice rush
29/10/2018 12:04
hewusana Price no up.. but turn to be down..
29/10/2018 13:18
CS Goh good
05/11/2018 22:32
commonsense Guys, just wanted to know what are the catalysts to invest or stay invested in UMW?

Previously it was supposed to be the MBMR deal but that has since been scraped. Doing the deal would have made the company very appealing since it will be the only proxy to Perodua growth. Now MBMR looks a lot cheaper compared to UMW.

Toyota sales during the tax holiday was excellent but can it maintain the momentum given now that the cars are on average more expensive post SST compared to during GST in particular the higher margin vehicles like Vellfire and Alphard (both are CBU models). Even the newly launch Rush is actually being manufactured by Perodua. The new plant in Bukit Raja is apparently mainly for the sedan models (Vios and Cambry). I initially thought that they would focus more on the SUV or MPV models for the new factory. I think they still need around RM1bil to complete the factory as of 2Q18.

The aerospace division still has yet to breakeven. Need to wait for 3Q18 to see if they have improved but based on the recent analyst reports it seems like they are facing difficulties in the operation and most likely will miss their target for breakeven by end of this year. Hopefully, they can show improvement in 3Q.

The unlisted O&G division posted a loss of RM122mil in 2Q18. Did they managed to sell the remaining businesses? Most analyst has actually taken out this division performance in coming up with their target price. If they failed to disposed off the assets, then the analysts might add back the losses into the target price calculation, wouldn't they?

My final concern is on the cash flow. They still have around RM2bil in reserves (cash and money market securities) but around RM1 bil is for capital committed for the Bukit Raja plant which leaves them with RM1 bil. Is this enough? in 1H18 they cash outflow was -RM360mil. If it was not because of the RM1.1bil sukuk, the cash outflow would have been -RM1.4bil. Are they planning to raise any further capital soon?
06/11/2018 19:36
Guardize buy b4 qr release? already in warrant
08/11/2018 14:30
BULL1000BEAR1000 Let's go buy plastic toys
09/11/2018 11:03
cheated Why QR must delay if good?
15/11/2018 05:09
Hafid UMW IS OUT OF THE MSCI INDEX
15/11/2018 09:22
commonsense Whats your view on 3Q result?

My expectations is that auto will still do well. Not an issue for me.

Heavy equipment should also do well.

Worries would be on the M&E and unlisted O&G divisions. Expect higher losses on the aero segment (based on analyst report, they actually missed their target for this year) and still high losses on the o&g segment.

Since 2q the only development of the unlisted asset announce in the winding up of vina offshore. But i think that one is just a small company. So expect still higher losses from unlisted o&g segment.

Still dissapointed that they failed to get MBMR. They should have just increased the offer at rm3. Even that its still less than 10x PE and less than 0.8x BV. Given the current valuation of 15x expected core PAT and 1.7x BV that UMW is trading at the moment, it is still consider value accreative. In addition, the market has no other choice but to buy UMW shares to have exposure to Perodua.

Anyway if they can disposed of o&g assets and turn around the aero division that would be great news for investors. Hope they can achieve this soon.
16/11/2018 06:40
BULL1000BEAR1000 Our car price is good to buy. We saw a lot of new car on the road.
21/11/2018 12:15
BULL1000BEAR1000 Many dunno cars and its price
22/11/2018 18:09
commonsense MBMR result just came out yesterday. Associate profit for 3Q was RM39.2mil (for 22.6% interest in Perodua). This means that Perodua recorded a PAT of around RM173mil in 3Q18. UMW 38% in Perodua should record a PAT of RM66mil. Toyota profit contribution should also be in the same range which would provide a bumper profit contribution from the automotive division. Total profit for the division should range somewhere around RM150mil

However, investors need to be prepare for a still big losses coming from the aerospace and also the unlisted O&G divisions. I am anticipating a combined losses of RM100mil for these two division combined. It may take a while for the aerospace division to breakeven (hopefully by next FY).

Equipment profit (excluding gain on disposal to Komatsu) should be around the range or RM35-40mil.

Positive catalysts would be:

1) The growth of Perodua profit in FY19 from the still high demand of New Myvi and the introduction of new entry level SUV.

2) The breakeven of the aerospace division.

3) The disposal of all major unlisted O&G companies

4) Growth from heavy equipment division from potential new products introduce by Komatsu.

Issues facing UMW for the near term will be its cash balance (they still need around RM1bil to complete the Bukit Raja Toyota plant and also further investment for the aerospace division).

Investors that are buying into this company for their exposure to Perodua should consider switching to MBMR as it offer a cheaper alternative to UMW.
23/11/2018 10:49
BULL1000BEAR1000 Perodua better than Proton. Engine ok but interior quality..yaiks
23/11/2018 10:55
BULL1000BEAR1000 Let's buy expensive plastic
26/11/2018 12:24
commonsense 3Q18 result was above expectation mainly due to the better performance of the M&E and unlisted O&G segment. I had been too pessimistic on both the divisions and had anticipated a loss of -RM100mil. The actual result (PBT) for the combined division is -RM2.2mil.

Auto and equipment divisions PBT were both in line with my expectation. Auto division managed to bring in RM151mil PBT thanks to better margin (stronger RM vs USD) and higher sales from the tax holiday period. Equipment PBT was at RM43.5 mil driven by higher export sales and higher demand from construction industry as client would most probably want to take advantage of the tax free holiday.

Toyota sales in Oct dropped to 4,757 cars vs 6,201 recorded in Oct 17 (-23% decrease).
Perodua sales in Oct increased to 19,528 cars vs 16,491 recorded in Oct 17 (18% increase).
If the trends continues, i would assume the PBT for the division could still be around RM150mil for 4Q18.

Equipment should still be able to record a PBT of around RM40mil.

Assuming a breakeven level for the combine M&E and unlisted O&G segment.

Total core PBT for 4Q should be around RM200mil. However please take note that the RM1.1bil sukuk has an interest rate of 6.35% per annum paid semi annually. This would mean on top of the finance cost that you see from 1Q to 3Q18 you need to assume an additional finance cost of around RM70mil per year. Given the issuance date was on 20th Apr 2018, UMW is expected to pay its first interest payment in Oct amounting to RM35m. So core PBT in 4Q18 should be around RM170mil

Valuation wise, I am targeting the company to be able to get RM550mil PATAMI for FY 2019. At the current price this would translate to a valuation of 10.7x Fwd PE which is not that expensive.

For gearing calculation I have adjusted the sukuk of RM1.1 bil to be placed in non current liabilities instead of equity. This would bring the debt level of the company as of Sept 2018 to RM4.2bil and reduce the total equity to RM4.5bil. Adjusted gearing is 93.9% however net gearing (company has RM2.7bil in cash reserves and liquid investment) is only 33%.

I believe you should only invest in the company if you truly believe in Toyota abilities to maintain or gain more market shares and also if you believe in the Rolls Royce project. Currently the rolls royce project is still loss making due to lower than expected production level. But based on management indication, at full capacity the venture could provide good returns to UMW (however, they did not specify the profit target)

For Toyota, i am not certain that the new Bukit Raja plant would be a positive catalyst to the company as the plant is only expected to produce Camry and Vios models instead of the MPV (Vellfire and Alphard) or SUV (Rush currently being manufactured by Perodua). Just because the capacity increase does not mean demand will increase as well.

For those interested in having exposure to Perodua, MBMR would offer a better alternative. Valuation is cheap at only 5.3x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already at RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5xBV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17.

Please go through analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions.

Good luck.
02/12/2018 09:44
Kawkaw Can anybody tell when the report will be out
02/12/2018 11:13
apolloang already out,looks good tomoro should up
02/12/2018 11:22
Kawkaw Boughtytoday apolo
03/12/2018 10:23
Kawkaw no regretted soldytoday
Tq
04/12/2018 21:43
Kawkaw tq pang will monitors closely umw
Any changes hemtam..
04/12/2018 22:22
BULL1000BEAR1000 Tq you tq me
06/12/2018 10:24
BULL1000BEAR1000 Foreign car manufacturers will slowly withdraw their market in Malaysia because of not favorable policies which would affect the sales.
10/12/2018 16:50
pussycats Uncle kyy bought this Toyota shares,,, umw started enjin ....
11/12/2018 12:33
pang72 Really! Hope it fly....
13/12/2018 15:29
pang72 Look alike kyy style...belankang Mari!!
13/12/2018 18:33
pang72 Today belakang no mari
14/12/2018 16:57
pang72 Add
14/12/2018 18:35
Kawkaw epf bought.. Good indicator for buying..
At least can dream for 6.20...
No get... No woman... No cry..
19/12/2018 20:24
Kawkaw Another 25-30 tomolo..
20/12/2018 01:23
BULL1000BEAR1000 The new Toyota Vios has been launched on the China car market. Price starts at 69.800 yuan and ends at 112.800 yuan.

Google search result.

Wake up . Still kena tipu?
21/12/2018 11:06
Kawkaw Mr bull..
Make bull for umw looo..
Not only bull for talking ma...

It will end up... With other bull..
Bullxxxxxx..

No woman.. No cry.. Hape week end
22/12/2018 00:59
DrPitchard Post removed. Why?
22/12/2018 01:17
BULL1000BEAR1000 Shame on you
26/12/2018 08:44
tbc1982 yes! collect a bit at 5.30
28/12/2018 16:59
Kawkaw Toyota engine...
About to start... Any one want to ride... Most welcome..
I will off loading when profit on hand
31/12/2018 20:22
James Ng https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/190146.jsp
[转贴] [Facebook live:浅谈UMW holdings bhd (UMW)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing
15/01/2019 10:30
Kawkaw How to subscribe james
16/01/2019 11:13
SamuelLuke Those players in O&G sectors can sell lo, time to watch construction.... the worst time is over. Place your bet and wait for your reward. O&G sector will now meet its worst challenge. Sell now while your have your profit!!!
15/02/2019 10:08

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