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  goldman88 Fundamentally means relying on trade receivables to pay off trade payable in case of receivable default then it may cause value to shrink. If the receivables can be converted to cash the payout will be better in the future. Consider average for Auto industry. In current market condition bad due to higher chance of it defaulting. When market recovers considered good. Decision to hold instead due to dividend returns are still below EPS which is consider a good payout by the company. 02/12/2019 10:22 AM  cherry88 The receivables mainly due from their sales agent or customers pending loan approval. Generally, the default is low. Because you will not get the car even u paid the downpayment, must wait for loan approved. 02/12/2019 4:50 PM mason please bring in more CKD models to boost the sales. Recently reveal CBU CX-30 will not help. it need to be CKD asap. it will be flooded with CX-30 OTR if CKD, just like the CX-5. Else it will like the CBU mazda3, hardly to see one OTR due to too expensive. 06/12/2019 2:34 PM RainT my theory is proven right for me, I will not invest in auto biz company as auto biz is cyclical and high competition , there are many other car biz in Asia in term of competitive advantage wise, BAUTO is don't have 10/12/2019 10:45 PM Good123 masih buy call, ada yang berani kot? :) KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS BAuto delivered weak 2QFY20 earnings A 2.75sen/share interim dividend declared, generous 95% payout (1HFY20) Temporary impact from CX8 and facelift CX5 pricing approval delay Earnings delayed, not cancelled; ready booking bank to meet delayed deliveries next quarter Maintain BUY at unchanged TP of RM2.85 A weak 2QFY20. BAuto reported a weak set of results for its 2QFY20. The group registered a core net profit of RM22m for its 2QFY20 bringing 1HFY20 core net profit to RM73m (normalized for ESOS expense of RM2.3m). This is behind expectations accounting for 28% and 29% of our and consensus estimates respectively. However, we expect the weakness to be temporary. An interim dividend of 2.75sen/share was declared bringing 1H20 interim dividend to 6sen/share, representing a generous 95% payout. Temporary sales slowdown. The weak 2QFY20 earnings (-71%yoy) were due to the delay in deliveries of the all new CX8 (launched in Oct19) and facelift CX5 (launched Sep19) which was a result of the delay in regulators’ pricing approval of these models. This resulted in Mazda TIV falling 27%qoq and 47%yoy. The weak domestic performance was partly offset by improved earnings at BAuto Philippines (BAP) ( 79%yoy) driven by an improved model mix following launch of the new Mazda 3 this quarter (BAP sales were previously mainly driven by the Mazda 2). Associate earnings also affected. Associate earnings (comprising 30%-owned manufacturing units MMSB and Inokom) saw spillover impact from the pricing delay issues – volumes are only recognized once the finished units are invoiced to end-customers. MMSB earnings specifically fell by 31%qoq and 68%yoy in 2QFY20. A recovery in Mazda TIV and group earnings, expected from next quarter onwards, should be accompanied by a turnaround in associate performance as well. Earnings delayed, not cancelled. We expect the delivery delays to be contained to the current quarter as the pricing issues have been resolved and deliveries should be reflected from 3QFY20 onwards. Bookings for the CX8 stand at ~400 units (vs. a target monthly volume of 250-300 units) while bookings for the CX5 currently stands at around 750 units. BAuto has built-up sufficient inventories to meet the delayed deliveries next quarter. Beyond the CX8 and facelift CX5, the CX30 (CBU) is scheduled to be launched in 3QFY20. Source: MIDF Research - 11 Dec 2019 11/12/2019 6:41 PM MACC_jangan_tidur Really? Profit drop 72% YOY share got drop so much? slts VERY LOW ALREADY. ANY -VES PRICED IN ALREADY 03/12/2019 10:17 AM 11/12/2019 9:20 PM MACC_jangan_tidur Ada rasuah? Buy B Auto EPF employees get Mazda car free? Victor Yong EPF sangat sayang pada syer ini, kenapa? :) 11/12/2019 9:21 PM Good123 :) be patient, money coming :p Bermaz Auto Bhd (Dec 11, RM2.05) Maintain buy with a lower target price of RM2.65: Bermaz Auto Bhd’s second quarter of financial year 2020 (2QFY20) core net profit fell sharply to RM21.5 million (-71% year-on-year, -59% quarter-on-quarter). This brought earnings for the first half of FY20 (1HF20) to only RM73 million, making up 33% and 31% of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively. The reduced earnings were attributed to lower sales volume, poorer sales mix and lower contribution from the company’s associates. As 2QFY20 only captured 1.5 months sales of the new facelift CX-5 model and did not record CX-8 sales — which only received pricing approval in mid- November — we expect sales contribution from these models and earnings to improve in 2HFY20. Upside to earnings may come from better sales of new models, especially CX-8, as well as higher-than-expected contribution from its associates, mainly Mazda Malaysia Sdn Bhd. Cut earnings forecasts for FY20/21/22 by 16%/9%/9% mainly on lower sales volume and margin assumption. While we are positive on contributions from CX-5 and CX-8 models going forward, we have lowered our volume and margins assumption due to delay in CX-8 sales; expected economic slowdown which might affect consumer affordability; and also the competitive sport utility vehicle segment as more models are expected to be launched next year. Post-earnings adjustment, Bermaz Auto’s valuation is still attractive at 11 times FY20 price-to-earnings (-1 standard deviation of five-year mean) and offers good dividend yield of 7% (assuming 90% payout). — AllianceDBS Research, Dec 11 12/12/2019 10:48 AM Good123 5000 lots traded rationally today so far, no more insane or fearful selling like yesterday :) 12/12/2019 11:08 AM Good123 opportunity for patient investors to accumulate to make money at such price level :) 12/12/2019 11:09 AM Good123 Earnings delayed, not cancelled. We expect the delivery delays to be contained to the current quarter as the pricing issues have been resolved and deliveries should be reflected from 3QFY20 onwards. Bookings for the CX8 stand at ~400 units (vs. a target monthly volume of 250-300 units) while bookings for the CX5 currently stands at around 750 units. BAuto has built-up sufficient inventories to meet the delayed deliveries next quarter. Beyond the CX8 and facelift CX5, the CX30 (CBU) is scheduled to be launched in 3QFY20. Source: MIDF Research - 11 Dec 2019 12/12/2019 11:18 AM Good123 Dividend. BAuto declared a second interim dividend of 2.75 sen per share (2QFY19: 3.75 sen/share), to be payable on 17th February 2020. This brings its 1HFY20 dividend per share to 6 sen, translating to a 98% payout ratio. Source: PublicInvest Research - 11 Dec 2019 12/12/2019 11:19 AM Good123 no wonder epf increased its stake to more than 10% , real dividend stock :) Dividend. BAuto declared a second interim dividend of 2.75 sen per share (2QFY19: 3.75 sen/share), to be payable on 17th February 2020. This brings its 1HFY20 dividend per share to 6 sen, translating to a 98% payout ratio. Source: PublicInvest Research - 11 Dec 2019 12/12/2019 11:20 AM Good123 Outlook. BAuto will leverage onto the newly launched CX-5 facelift and new CX-8 in 2HFY20. Other highly anticipated models are CX-30 (targeted to launch in 3QFY20) and MX-30 (hybrid or EV), recently reviewed in Tokyo Motor Show. Forecast. We adjusted lower earnings for FY20-22 by 26.3%, 27.1% and 25.5% respectively, after imputing lower sales volume and overall margins. Maintain BUY, TP: RM2.38. We maintain BUY recommendation on BAuto with lower TP of RM2.38 (from RM2.85), based on CY21 P/E of 14x (rolled forward from CY20), supported by: (i) healthy balance sheet with net cash position of RM178.0m (15.3sen/share); (ii) attractive line up models to sustain sales volume; and (iii) high dividend yield of 5.6-7.0%. Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 11 Dec 2019 12/12/2019 11:21 AM Good123 We recently hosted a site visit to Mazda Motor Corporation’s (MC) Hiroshima plant. Founded in 1920, MC is a multinational premier automaker, ranked 15th in global auto sales in 2018. With an attractive product line up and on resolving domestic issues related to pricing, we are upgrading Bermaz Auto (Bauto) to BUY (from Hold) with an unchanged TP of RM2.30 on valuation grounds. At 11x PER/ 6% yield for FY20E, Bauto’s valuations look compelling. Impressive Mixed Production Line and a Highly Efficient Plant Post visit, we are impressed that the Hiroshima plant adopts a mixed production line – the ability to produce multiple car models on the same assembly line. We gather that the current 569k units/annum production capacity has reached maximum capacity. We saw automation mostly in the stamping process area; the final assembly, however, is less automated and is mainly supported by est.10k employees. The Hiroshima plant manufactures most of the Mazda SUV models, while the sedans like Mazda 2, Mazda 3 and Mazda 6 are mainly manufactured at Hofu plant. A New Mazda – Maturing Kodo Design Language, Coming to Malaysia We also saw MC’s all-new Mazda CX-30 compact crossover SUV, which adopts Mazda’s latest Kodo design language. We learnt that demand for CX-30 in Japan is strong – est. 6k orders since the booking period started in end-Oct. Positioned as a new core product, the CX-30 will likely hit Malaysian shores by 1H20, with indicative pricing of RM143k-RM173k; Bauto targets to sell est. 1k unit/annum. Growth Stemming From ASEAN; Malaysia Market Still Very Relevant MC believes the ASEAN market has growth potential, in particular Vietnam, considering i) the growing young population, ii) growing economy and iii) rapid motorisation trend. That said, MC also highlighted the importance of the Malaysia auto market to the Group as it contributed a 5- year avg.13% of total ASEAN sales volume between 2014-2018. Upgrading Bauto to BUY, Following Share-price Decline Bauto’s 1M-share price has fallen by c.9%, as 2QFY20 quarterly results, slated for release on 10th Dec, is expected to be sequentially weaker due to the delay in car pricing approvals for its CX-8 model. We are comforted to know that the issue has been resolved, and will not affect Bauto’s 2HFY20 outlook. At 11x PER/ 6% yield for FY20E, we believe the negatives are priced in and valuations look attractive. Upgrading to BUY (from Hold) with an unchanged TP of RM2.30 based on 12x CY20E PER. Key downside risks: supply constraints on Mazda model and forex risks. Source: Affin Hwang Research - 5 Dec 2019 12/12/2019 11:22 AM Good123 :) coming quarterly results , to be released in 2020 should be nice :) Mazda (BAuto) sales in Oct improved 122.4% MoM to 1.0k units, following launch of CX-5 facelift. However, sales declined 39.4% YoY and 21.7% YTD (to 9.9k units) due to high base effect of strong demand during GST free period. We expect stronger sales volume in Nov following recent launch of CX-5 facelift and new CX-8. Upcoming launches include new CX-30 and CX-3 facelift by year end as well as another new model in 2020 (potentially MX- 30). Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 4 Dec 2019 Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 4 Dec 2019 12/12/2019 11:27 AM KP_RECT Hi all, appreciate if you all can share the link from respective investment research done by someone instead of pasting here. It flood the forum all over here. Tq! 12/12/2019 2:48 PM whypaymore Hibiscus TP RM 1.75 why keep drop also? Any surprise if B Auto same? Posted by KP_RECT > Dec 12, 2019 2:48 PM | Report Abuse Hi all, appreciate if you all can share the link from respective investment research done by someone instead of pasting here. It flood the forum all over here. Tq! 12/12/2019 9:36 PM Good123 :) （吉隆坡11日讯）柏马汽车（BAUTO,5248,主板消费产品服务组）次季表现不如预期，分析员下砍3年财测，但预见其接下来新推车款将有助于提振销量。 受业绩逊色影响，柏马汽车今日面临沉重卖压，最终以2令吉零5仙闭市，全天跌10仙或4.65%，成交量达715万3600股。 丰隆研究指出，受累于大马营运销量下跌和营运利润疲软，柏马汽车2020财政年上半年核心净利大跌40.3%至7380万令吉，仅达该行和市场全年财测的33.3%和31.5%，远逊于预期。 尽管如此，该公司仍持续派发股息，上半年累积派发6仙股息，符合该行预期的全年12仙之内。 丰隆研究看好柏马汽车将利用新推的马自达CX-5改装版和下半年将推出的CX-8刺激销量，其他备受期待的车款如最近在东京汽车展上展出的CX-30和MX-30（混合或电动汽车），CX-30已预定在2020财政年第三季推出。 不过，由于销量和整体赚幅纷纷下降，该行下砍了2020至2022财政年财测分别26.3%、27.1%和25.5%。 有鉴于公司强稳的资产负债表、净现金1亿7800万令吉、具吸引力的新推车款支撑销量和5.6至7%的高周息率，丰隆研究虽以2021年14倍本益比估值为基准，将目标价从2令吉85仙大砍至2令吉38仙，但维持“买进”评级。 12/12/2019 11:23 PM Good123 me 2, tomorrow, it will fly. buy rate at closing time was 55%. saw the price fell to 2.02 then buyers grabbed the share non stop till 2.05 back but last transacted price was 2.04. I think the chase will continue tomorrow, good luck. :) 12/12/2019 11:30 PM pakabu PETALING JAYA: Better earnings are expected for BERMAZ AUTO BHD (BAuto) in the second half of its current financial year ending April 30,2020, on the back of anticipated demand for new and existing Mazda models. Read more at: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/12/12/better-earnings-expected-for-bauto-on-higher-demand 16/12/2019 10:14 PM factslim1 Following the earnings revision and after rolling over our valuation base to FY21F (YE April), we trim our TP slightly to RM2.70/share (from RM2.85/share previously) though our BUY call on BAuto remains intact. From a valuation standpoint, BAuto is cheap at just 10x FY21F earnings while dividend yield of 8% is attractive. 17/12/2019 1:38 PM  Choivo Capital Lol i bought abit just before the quarter results come out. Still pretty interesting, maybe i should be waiting till its stupidly cheap before topping up, 22/12/2019 12:00 AM Darius Tanz https://estarosaevans.wordpress.com/2019/12/04/income-fund-bauto-5248/ TA suggests around 2 can add. If it falls further, wait around 1.8... for long term traders and entry-price-sensitive investors. For short term trading... Maybe should find better options. 23/12/2019 6:39 PM Exnstp Top up at 2.01. If they can maintain the dividend payout, that will awesome. Current DY is at 6.8% 16/01/2020 11:36 AM mikeymouse Fundamentals are ok, dividend is high. Challenges ahead are competitions are getting stronger and car sales are dropping. However Mazda's brand itself is picking up. At RM2.01 should be a reasonable price for entry. Just bought a small amount. 17/01/2020 10:40 AM Darius Tanz http://netflyp.com/index.php/2020/01/22/bermaz-auto-bauto-stock-opinion-january-2020/ I'm investing long term fr the div. Topping up around 2. Seems like it may go lower. Will add on rebound or around 1.8 23/01/2020 2:09 AM Victor Yong CGS-CIMB Research said the surprise move indicates that policymakers may be more pragmatic in future MPC decisions, particularly if financial flows and the ringgit remain orderly, leaving open the possibility that the next cut may happen quicker than 2H20, which is its base case assumption. It pointed out OPR cuts are positive for cyclical sectors such as property (top pick: Sime Darby Property), auto (top pick: BERMAZ AUTO), and consumer (top pick: Power Root) due to the increase in consumers 24/01/2020 8:21 AM Victor Yong Date Close 23/01/2020 1.96 22/01/2020 1.98 21/01/2020 2.02 20/01/2020 2.02 17/01/2020 2.01 16/01/2020 2.02 15/01/2020 2.01 14/01/2020 2.04 13/01/2020 2.05 10/01/2020 2.06 09/01/2020 2.09 08/01/2020 2.05 07/01/2020 2.10 06/01/2020 2.03 03/01/2020 2.07 02/01/2020 2.06 31/12/2019 2.10 30/12/2019 2.11 27/12/2019 2.10 24/01/2020 8:21 AM Victor Yong Winners: Property and REITs, automotive players The reduced OPR rate will reduce borrowing costs for house buyers as well as as for property developers, and could spur home building and buying activities, said TA Research. Based on its sensitivity analysis, a 25bps cut in lending rate could decrease monthly repayment of a 30-year loan by 2.9%, assuming the banks adjust their base rates (BRs) accordingly. “Although we note a 2.9% decrease in monthly repayment alone is insufficient to convince consumers to commit to big ticket purchase, we expect consumer sentiment to improve, as lower instalment on loans will free up some cash flows for future spending and improve repayment capabilities, ” the research house said. An easing interest rate environment, it said, would also result in lower borrowing costs for REITs to acquire future assets. It added that interest rate cuts could also enhance the attractiveness of REITs as the yield of other fixed-income instruments decline. Reiterating its “overweight” stance on the property sector, the research house believes the property market is showing signs of bottoming out and that developers should catch up in terms of share price movement. “With various efforts to spur housing market activities, we believe there are trading opportunities to buy undervalued developers, ” it said. CGS-CIMB, meanwhile, believes the impact on the property sector will be negligible. It estimated that every 25bp reduction in borrowing rate would reduce the monthly instalment for mortgage loans by 1%-3%, depending on the loan tenure. “Homebuyers’ purchasing power will likely increase in tandem but we expect the upside to be limited, especially for properties in the affordable range of RM300,000-RM500,000, ” it said. Based on its sensitivity analysis, every 25bp cut in borrowing rate would reduce the monthly housing loan instalment by only about RM32-RM68 or raise a buyer’s eligible loan amount by RM3,000 to RM15,000. “While the sentiment to purchase properties will likely improve due to lower loan instalments, this could be offset by Malaysia’s muted GDP growth and slowing household income trend, ” it said. As for the automotive sector, it also sees minimal direct impact to total industry volume (TIV), based on historical data. Nevertheless, it expects the latest 25bp rate cut could facilitate its estimate of a 1.8% year-on-year TIV growth for the auto sector in 2020, given the more favourable environment for Malaysian consumers. MIDF Research said the rate cut should be positive for underlying auto demand, but expects sector earnings to be offset by a weaker ringgit as an implication. 24/01/2020 8:56 AM Victor Yong 22-Jan-2020 Insider KUMPULAN WANG PERSARAAN (DIPERBADANKAN) (a substantial shareholder) acquired 2,300,000 shares on 21-Jan-2020. 21-Jan-2020 Insider KUMPULAN WANG PERSARAAN (DIPERBADANKAN) (a substantial shareholder) acquired 785,000 shares on 20-Jan-2020. 20-Jan-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 200,000 shares on 15-Jan-2020. 24/01/2020 9:15 AM Victor Yong We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the AUTOMOTIVE sector. According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), TIV for December 2019 registered sales of 54,824 units (+4% MoM, +14% YoY). Both MoM and YoY sales growths were stronger, driven by the continuation of aggressive year-end promotional campaign especially by players with 31 December FYE. 2019 reported TIV of 604,287 units (+1%) came in slightly above our estimate (600,000 units) and we envisaged 2020 target at 612,000 (+1.3%), driven by exciting new launches, especially by the non-nationals, better incentives program under NAP 2020 (tentatively to be unveiled on 1QCY20), anticipation of gradual increase in CKD car prices beyond 2020 as well as minimal positive impact from recent BNM adjustment in the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25bps to 2.75%. Sales volume for January 2020 is expected to be lower than sales-boosted December 2019 due to the shorter working month reduced by Chinese New Year holidays, and fewer promotional activities. Our sector top-pick is BAUTO (OP; TP: RM2.65) which offers a steady dividend yield of 7.4%. 24/01/2020 9:17 AM Victor Yong Mazda continues to launch new models to sustain sales. good move for the malaysian and philippine market. Inokom is also another cash cow for assembling cars, etc for other brands too 24/01/2020 9:18 AM Victor Yong Bermaz Auto - Mazda CX-30 Racing Fast to the Market Date: 16/01/2020 Stock : BAUTO Source : KENANGA Price Target : 2.65 Last Price : 1.93 The all-new Mazda CX-30 has been officially launched at RM143k-173k, positioned between the CX-3 and CX-5 in terms of price and size, with sales targeted at c.100-200 units/month. Combined with CX-5 and CX-8, they are expected to make up to 70% of total BAUTO’s sales. The current version is CBU from Japan, while the CKD version is only viable for production when demand reaches 3k units/year. We reiterate our OP call with a TP of RM2.65 on the basis of above-industry profit margin and steady high dividend yield of c.7%. The all-new Mazda CX-30 was officially launched at RM143k-173k, which places it between the CX-3 (RM128k) and CX-5 (RM133kRM182k) in terms of price and size, and targeted to hit sales of around 100-200 unit/month. Note that, 100 units is expected to be delivered in January 2020, while 125 units is on shipment, expected to arrive in 1st week of February. Combined with CX-5 and CX-8, they make up to 70% of our total sales expectation for the year. The current version is a CBU from Japan based on the Mazda 3 platform, while BAUTO noted that the CKD version is only viable for production if demand reaches 3k units/year. The CX-30 is expected to serve as an alternative choice for consumer opting between CX-5 and CX-3.The launching event was presented by Dato’ Sri Ben Yeoh (Executive Chairman), Dato Francis Lee (CEO), Dato Amer Hamzah (Prima Merdu Executive Chairman), Hiroshi Inoue-San (President, Mazda South East Asia Ltd), Naohito Saga-san (Mazda Japan Program Manager), and Susumu Niinai-San (Mazda Japan ASEAN Business Office general manager). Mazda CX-30 specification. Pricing-wise, the 2.0G retails at RM143k on-the-road without insurance, the 2.0G High at RM164k, while the 1.8D High goes for RM173k, with 5-year/100,000 km manufacturerbacked warranty and a 5-year free maintenance package. Powering this car is a 2.0 litre Skyactiv-G power-train that delivers 162 HP at 6,000 rpm and 213 Nm of torque at 4,000 rpm, driving the front wheels via a 6-speed automatic gearbox. The range-topping 1.8 litre diesel produces 116 PS at 4,000 rpm and 270 Nm of torque from 1,600 to 2,700 rpm. Like the Mazda 3, the front gets MacPherson struts, and the rear a torsion beam setup, while the inside is almost identical to the Mazda 3 hatch. Other additions include: latest 8.8-inch full-colour infotainment display (support for Apple CarPlay and Android Auto), boot volume rated at 430 litres (1,432 litres with the rear seats folded), for safety, the 2.0 High variant gets seven airbags including driver’s knee airbags, hill start assist, emergency stop signal, ISOFIX child seat mounts, the usual three-lettered acronyms and several i-ActivSense advanced safety systems. Exciting new launches starting 2QFY20. BAUTO had earlier launched the all-new Mazda 3 Sedan and Hatchback (CBU, July 2019), face-lifted and turbo variants of CX-5 (CKD, 22nd October), all-new CX- 8 (CKD, 13th November), and all-new CX-30 (CBU, 15th January 2020). BAUTO will introduce the face-lifted CX-3 (by 1QCY20), face-lifted Mazda 2 (1HCY20) and all-new Mazda MX-30 (based on demand, introduced at the Tokyo Motor Show, with estimated launch in CY2020/CY2021), and tentatively in two formats; (i) full EV, and (ii) range extender powered by a small rotary engine (necessary for other markets where daily commutes are longer or Malaysia which lacks EV infrastructure). Maintain OUTPERFORM with unchanged TP of RM2.65 based on 13x CY20E EPS (at -0.5SD of its historical 3-year Fwd. PER mean). We like BAUTO for its: (i) expected earnings recovery from the stream of all-new models, (ii) superior margins above industry peers (average profit margin of c.9% vs. peers of c.2%), and (iii) steady dividend yield of c.7%. Risks to our call include: (i) lower-than-expected car sales volume, and (ii) unfavourable forex. Source: Kenanga Research - 16 Jan 2020 24/01/2020 11:38 AM Victor Yong Date Price Target Source News 16/01/2020 2.65 KENANGA Price Target News 17/12/2019 2.38 HLG Price Target News 16/12/2019 2.70 MIDF Price Target News 11/12/2019 2.51 PUBLIC BANK Price Target 11/12/2019 2.85 MIDF Price Target News 11/12/2019 2.65 KENANGA Price Target News 11/12/2019 2.38 HLG Price Target News 11/12/2019 2.35 AmInvest Price Target News 11/12/2019 2.06 AffinHwang 24/01/2020 11:40 AM  |
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