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Overview
Financial Highlight
Headlines
Business Background Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd is a Malaysian oil company engaged in producing a wide range of petroleum products which include gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aviation fuel.
  probability https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/06/05/petron-spending-us100mil-to-upgrade-pd-refinery/ 07/07/2019 4:16 PM  VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In no lah steady one this one, as long as Tun remain PM, nothing to worry about 07/07/2019 4:46 PM  David_share How refining margin is affected by crack spread? Could sifu share u opinion ? Thanks 08/07/2019 6:53 PM sheldon David_share - refining margin is currently affected by oversupply of giant refineries in Korea and Petronas muscling in. Crack spread is affected by sharp drops in inventory values caused by sharp drops in Brent crude and other similar benchmarks. 10/07/2019 3:36 AM Wai Yoong Why would there be a sharp drop today? I thought it was supposed to go up but the price is getting lower and lower and I’m starting to feel scared about it 22/07/2019 5:22 PM  enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] scared? what's your purchase price? has PETRONM deviated from your initial hopes for it? is there any other stock which you have in mind which may have a better potential return than PETRONM? I'm not an expert in stocks. But I'm very sure that succumbing to emotions will affect accuracy of decision-making of investors. 28/07/2019 2:27 AM sheldon Any guesses on 30 June quarter results? A. Big profit (>50m) B. Small profit (0 to +50m) C. Small loss (0 to -50m) D. Big loss (> -50m) My prediction (& let me warn you that it's usually wrong) is B 15/08/2019 9:01 AM sheldon john0909 @sheldon, likely A... EPS should be around between 20-23cents... So it's A for you - I hope so. 16/08/2019 12:06 PM enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] I don't get it... with EPS of >80, PE of <7, dividends of 20sen/year, PETRONM beats many other stocks hands down. Why is it still downtrending? Declining oil prices? Foreign funds disposing? Sharks pressing the prices low? 16/08/2019 12:23 PM Kpin Yeoh I am buying at almost 52 weeks low and plan to keep for 6 months to see if what is the yield for this investment. My worst plan is keep 2 years after the down turn and aim for 30% return after recession when demand come back and remember to top up a bit every 5-10% drop in share price. 19/08/2019 5:17 PM untong Concern on refining margin and low dividend payout ratio, could be preparing cash for big capex/maintenance, short term not looking good, long term uncertainty with RAPID commencing soon. They could get cheaper feedstock for their retail side but affecting their refining margin 19/08/2019 9:18 PM Kpin Yeoh Rapid will slash margin itself and kill refinery industry and make sure rapid itself make no profit. What a brilliant business model. 20/08/2019 12:00 PM enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] seems like this QR will turn out well, judging by the market's positive reaction today 20/08/2019 2:51 PM Kayme Petrochemicals 16 Aug 2019 | 07:09 UTC Singapore Analysis: China's faltering car sales crimp petrochemical, gasoline demand Singapore — Chinese gasoline and petrochemical demand growth is under pressure from decelerating automobile sales that are expected to worsen this year, exacerbated by a slowing economy, and the currency and trade dispute with the US. The slowdown threatens the margins of key petrochemical producers in China and other parts of Asia, and paves the way for a growing glut of gasoline supplies flooding regional markets, weighing down on prices and refining margins. Chinese motor vehicle sales in the first half of 2019 plunged 14.35% year on year to 12.18 million units, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, reigniting worries of a second consecutive year of falling sales. China's wholesale car sales dropped 7.8% on year to 1.73 million units in June, despite retailers offering discounts of up to 30% to destock inventories of cars with old emissions standards. Sales are expected to fall 11% on year in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. "As such, we estimate passenger vehicle wholesales will continue dropping by 13% year on year in 3Q19. The decline will likely ameliorate to -2.7% year on year in 4Q19 on the back of year-end discount offered by retailers," Platts Analytics said in its latest China oil market forecast. "There is no sign of recovery in the Chinese car industry anytime soon amid the US-China trade war, which has extended into the currency war now," Eun Young Lee, equity research vice president, at DBS said. The International Energy Agency said that while worldwide car sales could drop by 5% this year as the economy slows, the decline will be particularly pronounced in China, which represents a third of global car sales. The bleak outlook for Chinese car manufacturers is having a direct impact on gasoline and petrochemical demand. BEARISH ABS AND SBR MARKETS "Together with a strong increase in production capacity and a general slowdown in economic activity, the sharp drop in automobile sales explains part of the difficulties currently experienced by the petrochemical sector," the IEA said in its latest monthly report. It added that carmakers use a lot of plastic and petrochemical products, and petrochemical feedstock demand has been particularly weak in recent months, with global naphtha demand under pressure since March and LPG/ethane demand barely recovering to last year's levels. There is a bearish impact on Asian acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) markets, both of which are used for car manufacturing, and prices have already fallen. ABS prices hit a three-year low of $1,370/mt CFR China August 7, while prices for SBR for the 1502 grade -- commonly used in passenger vehicle tires -- also dipped to an eight-month low of $1,290/mt CFR SEA August 8, according to Platts assessments. Should car sales dip further, ABS demand over one year could shrink by around 768,000 mt, market sources said. Some SBR producers, such as China's Zhejiang Transfar Chemicals Group, China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. and Thailand's Bangkok Synthetic Co., have already announced plant maintenance shutdowns in response to the negative margins. With July's SBR margins averaging minus $105.53/mt, basis CFR China, several SBR sources have also warned of more cuts in following months should negative margins continue. GASOLINE EXPORTS SHRINK Lower car sales are also stifling gasoline demand growth and worsening the already persistent domestic oversupply in China, prompting higher exports in coming months. "China's gasoline demand growth has been on a slow decline. Year-on-year growth for 2019 is expected to be around 75,000 b/d, down 29% from the previous year," Anthony Tso, senior analyst at Platts Analytics, said. "Dampened domestic demand may become more apparent in 2H19, which will encourage more gasoline exports, up to 400,000 b/d (approx. 1.4 million mt) on average for the rest of the year," he added. China's gasoline exports in May and June were at a relatively low level of 848,000 mt and 998,000 mt, respectively, but analysts said exports in July and August could top 1 million mt/month, with at least one Singapore-based analyst projecting exports of 1.5 million mt. Oil companies only consumed 42.7%, or 6.78 million mt, of their year-to-date gasoline export quotas in H1, leaving at least 9.11 million mt quota available for rest of the year, Platts data showed. Fundamentals in the Chinese domestic gasoline market have been weak as large-scale private refineries, like the 400,000-b/d Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery have flooded the market, even as China works on a long-term shift away from internal combustion engine or ICE vehicles to electric vehicles. 20/08/2019 3:07 PM Kpin Yeoh Not bad EPS at 20 cents per quarter. Petronm stock selling at steep discount 5.57 with current PE of 6. 22/08/2019 5:42 PM Kpin Yeoh I keep load up below 5.60 and will continue to hold until this sector recover. Buy and close the book. Net Asset 6.397 PE: 6. Debt : 0 Revenue vs market cap : 10 bil vs 1.507 bil (6.7 times) 22/08/2019 5:47 PM sheldon john0909 @sheldon, my prediction is correct, what's the prize for me? john0909 - you're spot-on!! Was is a guesstimate? What crystal ball do you use? Well done! I'm glad for the results as its beyond my expectation, considering that Brent fell steeply during the quarter which would adversely affect the crack spreads. The prize is that you get the exclusive right to take me out to dinner at your expense. 22/08/2019 11:33 PM  Jonathan Choi Within expectations. I expected zero profit or around there from refinery, but with profit of about 50m from retailing. Looks about right, though the derivative gain was more than expected. All in all, pretty good q. 23/08/2019 3:15 AM john0909 @sheldon, Lol. Not just merely a guesstimate, supported with some data, hence come out with the prediction of 20-23cents eps... i will try few more quarters and see if such direction is correct/reliable or not... 23/08/2019 9:24 AM Jonathan Choi Quite happy to be able to buy more. I was waiting for this quarter result to fully test my thesis, and with these results i gotten the confidence level i need. Quite glad that my cost was only 1.5% extra. 23/08/2019 10:43 AM sheldon john0909 @sheldon, .... Not just merely a guesstimate, supported with some data, hence come out with the prediction of 20-23cents eps... i will try few more quarters and see if such direction is correct/reliable or not... Interesting - let's play the game 23/08/2019 1:41 PM AudemarsPiguet Just read the entire forum. Looks like choivo capital is bleeding money. 27/08/2019 10:19 PM Jonathan Choi In my 2018 Update, i stated the following. "If anything, the bearish market of 2018, and hopefully 2019 and 2020 are very good things for those such as us, who are likely to be long term buyer of stocks. It’s very simple, lower prices allow you to buy more stock. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be long term net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These people resemble a car driver who rejoices after the price of petrol increases, simply because his tank contains a week's supply." I'm quite happy with the performance of PETRONM given the macroeconomic factors. If "bleeding" means lower stock prices. I'll drink to it bleeding below RM5, or RM4, or RM3, or even RM0.1, given no change in fundamentals. The moment it breaks RM3, ill pop open the champagne i've been keeping for awhile to celebrate. The amount of shares i own for Petronm now, is only a small portion of what i intend to own throughout my lifetime. 28/08/2019 10:30 AM Outliar Just to remind you as well Choivo that you said the same thing for RCE Capital 28/08/2019 10:50 AM Jonathan Choi Well, i hold the same view for RCE. Non withstanding the change in political aspect, i would be more than happy for the price to keep falling. Having said that, RCE Capital is still doing fine tbh. Or even great. Now that the political aspect thing seems to have died down, i might buy some back. I just have better things to own. 30/08/2019 11:43 AM Jonathan Choi Id just rather buy more petronm instead of rcecap at this price. Or more of the other HK stocks. 30/08/2019 11:44 AM Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" i have been busy collecting stocks, albeit cautiously though it didn't prevent it from going lower and lower from my purchase price. lol what have you been buying, Jon? 30/08/2019 3:38 PM enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] I've always had faith in FA, but now I'm kinda inclined to TA. Anyone who had bought Petronm before Aug 2019 would've lost money due to the strong downtrend and weakening earnings. 07/09/2019 10:09 PM Jonathan Choi Fabien, I wonder why did i not rebuy magnitech at Rm4.5. Till today i feel blur. I bought more Aeoncr. Topped up airasia, lctitan, and pchem. Studying more on foreign stocks now. 13/09/2019 9:44 AM  |
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