KLSE: UMW (4588)       UMW HOLDINGS BHD MAIN : Consumer
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
5.65   0.00 (0.00%)  5.65 - 5.74  350,700
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Market Cap: 6,599 Million
NOSH: 1,168 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):5,627,742
4 Weeks Range:4.52 - 5.83
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
52 Weeks Range:4.20 - 6.98
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
Average Price Target: 6.12
Price Target Upside/Downside: +0.47

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 30-Sep-2018 [#3]  |  30-Nov-2018
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 31-Dec-2018  |  27-Feb-2019
T4Q P/E | EY: -62.21  |  -1.61%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 0.88%  |  - %
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 2.8142  |  2.01
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: -0.20%  |  -3.23%


Date Subject
12-Dec-2018 上升股:合顺阻力RM6.00
12-Dec-2018 Automobile - Riding a low tide
08-Dec-2018 合顺 今年财测调高30%
05-Dec-2018 上升股:合顺阻力RM5.88
04-Dec-2018 合顺 今年财测调高14%
04-Dec-2018 Technical Analysis - UMW
03-Dec-2018 年杪传统旺季‧全年汽车销售料胜预期
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings - High Five for 9M18 Results!
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings - To Leverage on Automotive New Launches
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings - Shifting Into Fifth Gear
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings - Stronger across the board
03-Dec-2018 AmWatch - Sector Focus Of The Day
03-Dec-2018 PublicInvest Research Headlines - 3 Dec 2018
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings - 9M18 Above Expectations
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings - To leverage on Automotive new launches
03-Dec-2018 UMW Holdings Berhad - Better Year Ahead
30-Nov-2018 Turnaround pace continues for UMW Holdings in Q3
24-Nov-2018 热门股:合顺上挑RM5.22
21-Nov-2018 Technical Analysis - UMW
14-Nov-2018 合顺 新车款推高盈利

Business Background

UMW Holdings Bhd comprises a wide range of businesses in industries such as oil and gas, automotive, equipment, and manufacturing and engineering. In automotive, UMW forms joint ventures with Toyota and Perodua, assembling, marketing, and distributing passenger and commercial vehicles. Further, UMW distributes heavy equipment in its equipment businesses, supplies components for OEM and replacement automotive markets in its manufacturing and engineering division, and provides offshore drilling and oilfield services in its oil and gas segment. The automotive segment generates two thirds of the company's revenue. The company operates in the Asia-Pacific region.
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  4 people like this.
Ng Ray collect again......
10/10/2018 10:57
BULL1000BEAR1000 Average ppl being forced to buy something not reliable, low spec, lack of safety features (but still selling here), plastic interior just like kids toy, everything low low and small small with ridiculous price. All of this because of taxation and to protect national car market.
10/10/2018 23:22
trulyinvest bought 4.31 sold 4.41 thx
12/10/2018 09:26
3iii >>>> Posted by trulyinvest > Oct 12, 2018 09:26 AM | Report Abuse

bought 4.31 sold 4.41 thx<<<<

Great investor.
12/10/2018 09:28
BULL1000BEAR1000 The Corolla L has a starting price of $18,550.

For 2018, the Camry comes in five different flavors, with the MSRP of a new Camry starting at $23,495.

The Toyota Avalon XLE starts out in the low $30,000 price range. Moving up to the Toyota Avalon Premium shifts the price tag into the low $32,000 range.

Toyota Crown Royal Saloon New Model
Price: 2WD = US$ 48,700
4WD = US$ 51,700.

Google Search Results

Price difference so much compare to here. Eyes pops out..

Do they know the baby Toyota Vios? Geely? Proton? Perodua?
13/10/2018 17:02
BULL1000BEAR1000 https://www.carshowroom.com.au/showrooms/proton/

Let's see and compare with the selling price here and the selling price in Australia
13/10/2018 17:03
BULL1000BEAR1000 Toyota Innova Crysta on road price starts from 14.65 Lakh. Toyota Innova Crysta diesel is priced at 15.77 Lakh while petrol variant comes with a price tag of 14.65 Lakh. Check out Toyota Innova Crysta on-road price in New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Chennai and Bangalore at Autoportal.com.

Google Search Results
13/10/2018 18:04
Victor Yong Continue to fall, Toyota n perodua will be affected by geely proton partnership? :)
15/10/2018 12:10
maymay Any idea why keep dropping ?
15/10/2018 14:10
trulyinvest dead counter
15/10/2018 17:00
Alibaba Drop drop drop... time to buy in below 4.00
15/10/2018 17:02
maymay Ya, below 4.. can sapu tml
15/10/2018 17:10
ABSBOSS ini counter memang bawak sial la..every time masuk mesti rugi...last time try c9 pulak...celaka betul
15/10/2018 21:20
Larrytrader Drop so much
15/10/2018 22:14
maymay Ya, I wish to slap the counter .. hopeles
15/10/2018 23:16
TakeProfits This one real waste of time..useless and hopeless. All counters bursa gone to Holland.
16/10/2018 00:03
TakeProfits Yar all talk sapu below 4! Then they will sapu you at 2.50..hopeless
16/10/2018 00:05
hewusana Can go below 4?
16/10/2018 00:11
apolloang ask umno lo.....hahaha
16/10/2018 00:22
hewusana Apolloang, why ask umno.. not PH.. now should br under them..?
16/10/2018 14:36
hewusana I think slim chance to be below rm4..this round..
May wait for next drop..
16/10/2018 14:37
hewusana Abt 2 yr ago at RM 4.5.. that time must ask umno
16/10/2018 14:39
BULL1000BEAR1000 Ask the crocodiles
16/10/2018 16:01
TakeProfits Eeh, govt spokesman advised no cgt on share capital gain. So DON'T HOPE BELOW 4 NOW. MIMPI ARH!! Hewusana, you can.wait and buy at 5..kikiki..haha..
16/10/2018 17:24
BULL1000BEAR1000 Tomorrow will be as strong as Toyota Tacoma, Toyota 4runner and Toyota Sequoia.
17/10/2018 19:56
cheeyong Tomorrow Toyota Rush is coming... very nice:)
17/10/2018 22:30
BULL1000BEAR1000 https://www.carwow.co.uk/news/2019-toyota-rav4-price-specs-and-release-date-3906

Although there are no official figures as yet, you can expect to pay around £28,000 for a basic petrol and around £30,000 for a hybrid when the RAV4 goes on sale in early 2019.
18/10/2018 15:51
BULL1000BEAR1000 Almost 100k for plastic dashboard. Nice rush
29/10/2018 12:04
hewusana Price no up.. but turn to be down..
29/10/2018 13:18
CS Goh good
05/11/2018 22:32
commonsense Guys, just wanted to know what are the catalysts to invest or stay invested in UMW?

Previously it was supposed to be the MBMR deal but that has since been scraped. Doing the deal would have made the company very appealing since it will be the only proxy to Perodua growth. Now MBMR looks a lot cheaper compared to UMW.

Toyota sales during the tax holiday was excellent but can it maintain the momentum given now that the cars are on average more expensive post SST compared to during GST in particular the higher margin vehicles like Vellfire and Alphard (both are CBU models). Even the newly launch Rush is actually being manufactured by Perodua. The new plant in Bukit Raja is apparently mainly for the sedan models (Vios and Cambry). I initially thought that they would focus more on the SUV or MPV models for the new factory. I think they still need around RM1bil to complete the factory as of 2Q18.

The aerospace division still has yet to breakeven. Need to wait for 3Q18 to see if they have improved but based on the recent analyst reports it seems like they are facing difficulties in the operation and most likely will miss their target for breakeven by end of this year. Hopefully, they can show improvement in 3Q.

The unlisted O&G division posted a loss of RM122mil in 2Q18. Did they managed to sell the remaining businesses? Most analyst has actually taken out this division performance in coming up with their target price. If they failed to disposed off the assets, then the analysts might add back the losses into the target price calculation, wouldn't they?

My final concern is on the cash flow. They still have around RM2bil in reserves (cash and money market securities) but around RM1 bil is for capital committed for the Bukit Raja plant which leaves them with RM1 bil. Is this enough? in 1H18 they cash outflow was -RM360mil. If it was not because of the RM1.1bil sukuk, the cash outflow would have been -RM1.4bil. Are they planning to raise any further capital soon?
06/11/2018 19:36
Guardize buy b4 qr release? already in warrant
08/11/2018 14:30
BULL1000BEAR1000 Let's go buy plastic toys
09/11/2018 11:03
cheated Why QR must delay if good?
15/11/2018 05:09
15/11/2018 09:22
commonsense Whats your view on 3Q result?

My expectations is that auto will still do well. Not an issue for me.

Heavy equipment should also do well.

Worries would be on the M&E and unlisted O&G divisions. Expect higher losses on the aero segment (based on analyst report, they actually missed their target for this year) and still high losses on the o&g segment.

Since 2q the only development of the unlisted asset announce in the winding up of vina offshore. But i think that one is just a small company. So expect still higher losses from unlisted o&g segment.

Still dissapointed that they failed to get MBMR. They should have just increased the offer at rm3. Even that its still less than 10x PE and less than 0.8x BV. Given the current valuation of 15x expected core PAT and 1.7x BV that UMW is trading at the moment, it is still consider value accreative. In addition, the market has no other choice but to buy UMW shares to have exposure to Perodua.

Anyway if they can disposed of o&g assets and turn around the aero division that would be great news for investors. Hope they can achieve this soon.
16/11/2018 06:40
BULL1000BEAR1000 Our car price is good to buy. We saw a lot of new car on the road.
21/11/2018 12:15
BULL1000BEAR1000 Many dunno cars and its price
22/11/2018 18:09
commonsense MBMR result just came out yesterday. Associate profit for 3Q was RM39.2mil (for 22.6% interest in Perodua). This means that Perodua recorded a PAT of around RM173mil in 3Q18. UMW 38% in Perodua should record a PAT of RM66mil. Toyota profit contribution should also be in the same range which would provide a bumper profit contribution from the automotive division. Total profit for the division should range somewhere around RM150mil

However, investors need to be prepare for a still big losses coming from the aerospace and also the unlisted O&G divisions. I am anticipating a combined losses of RM100mil for these two division combined. It may take a while for the aerospace division to breakeven (hopefully by next FY).

Equipment profit (excluding gain on disposal to Komatsu) should be around the range or RM35-40mil.

Positive catalysts would be:

1) The growth of Perodua profit in FY19 from the still high demand of New Myvi and the introduction of new entry level SUV.

2) The breakeven of the aerospace division.

3) The disposal of all major unlisted O&G companies

4) Growth from heavy equipment division from potential new products introduce by Komatsu.

Issues facing UMW for the near term will be its cash balance (they still need around RM1bil to complete the Bukit Raja Toyota plant and also further investment for the aerospace division).

Investors that are buying into this company for their exposure to Perodua should consider switching to MBMR as it offer a cheaper alternative to UMW.
23/11/2018 10:49
BULL1000BEAR1000 Perodua better than Proton. Engine ok but interior quality..yaiks
23/11/2018 10:55
BULL1000BEAR1000 Let's buy expensive plastic
26/11/2018 12:24
commonsense 3Q18 result was above expectation mainly due to the better performance of the M&E and unlisted O&G segment. I had been too pessimistic on both the divisions and had anticipated a loss of -RM100mil. The actual result (PBT) for the combined division is -RM2.2mil.

Auto and equipment divisions PBT were both in line with my expectation. Auto division managed to bring in RM151mil PBT thanks to better margin (stronger RM vs USD) and higher sales from the tax holiday period. Equipment PBT was at RM43.5 mil driven by higher export sales and higher demand from construction industry as client would most probably want to take advantage of the tax free holiday.

Toyota sales in Oct dropped to 4,757 cars vs 6,201 recorded in Oct 17 (-23% decrease).
Perodua sales in Oct increased to 19,528 cars vs 16,491 recorded in Oct 17 (18% increase).
If the trends continues, i would assume the PBT for the division could still be around RM150mil for 4Q18.

Equipment should still be able to record a PBT of around RM40mil.

Assuming a breakeven level for the combine M&E and unlisted O&G segment.

Total core PBT for 4Q should be around RM200mil. However please take note that the RM1.1bil sukuk has an interest rate of 6.35% per annum paid semi annually. This would mean on top of the finance cost that you see from 1Q to 3Q18 you need to assume an additional finance cost of around RM70mil per year. Given the issuance date was on 20th Apr 2018, UMW is expected to pay its first interest payment in Oct amounting to RM35m. So core PBT in 4Q18 should be around RM170mil

Valuation wise, I am targeting the company to be able to get RM550mil PATAMI for FY 2019. At the current price this would translate to a valuation of 10.7x Fwd PE which is not that expensive.

For gearing calculation I have adjusted the sukuk of RM1.1 bil to be placed in non current liabilities instead of equity. This would bring the debt level of the company as of Sept 2018 to RM4.2bil and reduce the total equity to RM4.5bil. Adjusted gearing is 93.9% however net gearing (company has RM2.7bil in cash reserves and liquid investment) is only 33%.

I believe you should only invest in the company if you truly believe in Toyota abilities to maintain or gain more market shares and also if you believe in the Rolls Royce project. Currently the rolls royce project is still loss making due to lower than expected production level. But based on management indication, at full capacity the venture could provide good returns to UMW (however, they did not specify the profit target)

For Toyota, i am not certain that the new Bukit Raja plant would be a positive catalyst to the company as the plant is only expected to produce Camry and Vios models instead of the MPV (Vellfire and Alphard) or SUV (Rush currently being manufactured by Perodua). Just because the capacity increase does not mean demand will increase as well.

For those interested in having exposure to Perodua, MBMR would offer a better alternative. Valuation is cheap at only 5.3x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already at RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5xBV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17.

Please go through analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions.

Good luck.
02/12/2018 09:44
Kawkaw Can anybody tell when the report will be out
02/12/2018 11:13
apolloang already out,looks good tomoro should up
02/12/2018 11:22
Kawkaw Boughtytoday apolo
03/12/2018 10:23
Kawkaw no regretted soldytoday
04/12/2018 21:43
Kawkaw tq pang will monitors closely umw
Any changes hemtam..
04/12/2018 22:22
BULL1000BEAR1000 Tq you tq me
06/12/2018 10:24
BULL1000BEAR1000 Foreign car manufacturers will slowly withdraw their market in Malaysia because of not favorable policies which would affect the sales.
10/12/2018 16:50
pussycats Uncle kyy bought this Toyota shares,,, umw started enjin ....
11/12/2018 12:33


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