Highlights
KLSE: POS (4634)       POS MALAYSIA BHD MAIN : Transportation&Logistics
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
1.10   -0.04 (3.51%)  1.10 - 1.20  18,239,000
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Overview

Market Cap: 861 Million
NOSH: 783 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):17,525,662
4 Weeks Range:0.845 - 1.22
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
68.00%
52 Weeks Range:0.52 - 2.00
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
39.19%
Average Price Target: 1.27
Price Target Upside/Downside: +0.17

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 31-Dec-2019  |  25-Feb-2020
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 31-Mar-2020  |  21-May-2020
T4Q P/E | EY: -2.41  |  -41.43%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 3.64%  |  - %
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 1.85  |  0.59
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: -15.66%  |  -24.63%

Headlines

Date Subject
22-May-2020 M+ Online Technical Focus - 22 May 2020
22-May-2020 Daily Market Update - 22 May 2020 (UNISEM, POS)
20-May-2020 PublicInvest Research Headlines - 20 May 2020
19-May-2020 MCO: Pos Malaysia says parcel volume rises but other businesses affected
14-May-2020 Transportation & Logistics - Covid-19 pandemic poses unprecedented challenges
07-May-2020 【行家论股/视频】大马邮政 电商助攻快递业务
22-Apr-2020 [转贴] [Facebook live video:浅谈Pos Malaysia bhd (Pos)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing
13-Apr-2020 大马邮政‧3大利空拦路
03-Apr-2020 Ports & Logistics - Covid-19 Wreaking Havoc on Earnings
01-Apr-2020 【行家论股/视频】大马邮政 两年财测料续蒙亏
01-Apr-2020 Pos Malaysia - Suspends international services
07-Mar-2020 【行家论股/视频】大马邮政 股价已反映利淡
05-Mar-2020 Pos Malaysia - Execution key to return to profitability
05-Mar-2020 Pos Malaysia - Good Plans Will Still Take Time
26-Feb-2020 Pos Malaysia - Postage Hike To Lift Earnings In FY20
26-Feb-2020 Pos Malaysia - Still in Red
26-Feb-2020 Pos Malaysia - Sinks deeper into losses
18-Feb-2020 【行家论股/视频】大马邮政 售PAES盈利贡献微
14-Feb-2020 Pos Malaysia - Divestment of Shares in Pos Aviation
14-Feb-2020 Mplus Market Pulse - 14 Feb 2020

Business Background

POS Malaysia Bhd is a Malaysia-based company engaged in providing postal and business solutions. It performs its operations under four segments comprising Postal Services, Courier, International and Logistics and Aviation. The Postal Services includes the provision of basic mail services for corporate and individual customers. Courier includes courier, parcel and logistics solutions by sea, air, and land to both national and international destinations. International includes the direct entry and transshipment. Logistics and Aviation include cargo and ground handling, in-flight catering, freight and forwarding and air cargo transport.
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  8 people like this.
 
MichelleNg After lunch rm1.20 road block to clear
29/05/2020 12:31 PM
xterrorsinx maybe the rest are institutions..
29/05/2020 12:33 PM
mamatede i add on at 1.13.. din expect it to jump so fast.. wah
29/05/2020 12:35 PM
MoneyHeist Love it!! Vol high
29/05/2020 12:38 PM
lancefire Hehe 1.2 cleared. Next 1.4.
29/05/2020 12:55 PM
Moneylover888 Has Pos 1st QR out?
29/05/2020 3:19 PM
MoneyHeist We all know that Pos businesses have minimal impact during MCO. Yes other segments are down but that pretty much covered by courier segment. I think Pos is doing very well. Hence people starts buying before QR results as it is dirt cheap. This QR could be still in red but better than YoY but next QR gonna be green all the way to the FY2020! Lock your price!!
29/05/2020 3:39 PM
mamatede I'm quite worried about Pos results though, since traditional mails have slowed based on Gdex. And is it true there's no Raya Bonus for their staff? And i think their management pay check too big.
29/05/2020 4:05 PM
xterrorsinx Traditional mails slow down should be cushioned by the increase of 100% in rate. Hopefully can breakeven for traditional mail, and make profit for courier segment.
29/05/2020 4:13 PM
MoneyHeist @mamatede to think about it which company can give you bonus for festivals? The FY has not ended yet though. Also, the news on Raya bonus is a scam. Do google it. For mail sector yes i expect it to be down too but i think during the MCO a lot of new traders came in. I am a maybank trade user everytime i buy/sell i will get letters from Maybank. Not sure with other trading platforms. But just imagine how many people has traded past few months. RM1.30 per letter. A lot man.
29/05/2020 4:15 PM
da4444 dead cat bounce again?
29/05/2020 4:30 PM
xterrorsinx Something wrong at close
29/05/2020 5:00 PM
MichelleNg Must be QR not good. Big fund selling last minit. Huge volume
29/05/2020 5:04 PM
xterrorsinx If they know then it’s insider trading
29/05/2020 5:27 PM
chanph Trump annoucement tonight, many will sell off just in case something comes up
29/05/2020 5:31 PM
abc333 bad QR + Trump VS china + Tun M kacau lagi
29/05/2020 5:37 PM
MoneyHeist Also usually people dont like to hold shares during weekend kut. I think
29/05/2020 6:42 PM
da4444 Mana qr? Lambat delivery ke?
29/05/2020 8:58 PM
xterrorsinx an important note for today's last min drop is that there was a quick sale and quick buy from one party to another. I believe these 2 parties are related. MAybe changing hands instead of selling ahead of results. 3 million sahres changed hand in a matter of 10 seconds.
29/05/2020 9:14 PM
paperone What happen
29/05/2020 10:19 PM
limitupupup QR boom for sure
29/05/2020 10:20 PM
paperone What do you mean by qr boom
29/05/2020 10:29 PM
JayC88 but there were a lot of counters which had this last min gap down, and huge vol of last min trading. something suspicious?
29/05/2020 10:38 PM
ITCHYLEG PUSH DOWN COUNTERS

1)AIRASIA 72.5 to 69c. 134m done.
2)TENAGA 11.84 to 11.26 64m done
3)PUBLIC BANK 15.02 to 14.66 25m done
4)SUNWAY 1.41 to 1.34 23m done
5)POS 1.15 to 1.10 5.1m done

PUSH UP COUNTERS

1)CIMB 3.65 to 3.77 102m done
2)DIALOG 3.77 to 3.99 23M done

EPF PERFORMED THE TIGER SHOW.........
29/05/2020 11:10 PM
ITCHYLEG So don't worry our POS last minute gap down , is not related to the quarter result to be announced soon, just TIGER SHOW PERFORMED BY<<<<<<<<<<<<<EPF>>>>>>>>>>>>>
29/05/2020 11:19 PM
JayC88 ok seems right. sometimes i don't know to love or hate this epf bugger.
29/05/2020 11:21 PM
ngubilly https://klse.i3investor.com/financial/quarter/upcoming.jsp annv date is tomorrow, so does this mean tomorrow will come out qr? Sat people working kah?
29/05/2020 11:47 PM
chanph Monday should rebound, no US sanction, GREAT!
30/05/2020 5:22 AM
oldchinaman "ITCHYLEG PUSH DOWN COUNTERS

1)AIRASIA 72.5 to 69c. 134m done.
2)TENAGA 11.84 to 11.26 64m done
3)PUBLIC BANK 15.02 to 14.66 25m done
4)SUNWAY 1.41 to 1.34 23m done
5)POS 1.15 to 1.10 5.1m done

PUSH UP COUNTERS

1)CIMB 3.65 to 3.77 102m done
2)DIALOG 3.77 to 3.99 23M done"

All range @ 4 to 4.5%
30/05/2020 11:59 AM
abc333 maybe the fund manager thought yesterday is last day of June.
30/05/2020 1:52 PM
chanph I heard it happens twice yearly end may and end november.
30/05/2020 2:28 PM
chanph Actually there are many stocks facing the same selldown apart from those listed above. Some even turning from green to red.
30/05/2020 3:11 PM
Popit79 Next week green
30/05/2020 3:59 PM
rockyhui Weekend's coffee session with The Investment Gem,
https://www.facebook.com/theinvestmentgem
30/05/2020 4:00 PM
xterrorsinx https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/05/30/brisk-business-for-gdex
30/05/2020 5:50 PM
xterrorsinx On 28 January 2020, shares in Pos Malaysia Bhd rose as much as 10% in early trade this morning after the national courier said it will raise postage rates for registered mail, commercial mail and small parcels below 2kg, effective Feb 1.

At 9.05am, Pos Malaysia rose 11 sen to RM1.55, valuing it at RM1.21 billion. The stock had earlier risen to a high of RM1.60.

From 1.55, dropped till 1.10 with a loss of RM 171m?
1.55-1.1 Market Cap loss = 352m VS inclusive of loss of RM 171m. Where does the difference of RM 181 go?

At RM 1.55, when the news was announced in January, the increase in price was priced in at RM 1.55, giving POS a market cap of RM 1.21b, but increase in courier demand wasnt priced in yet.
With loss of RM 171, shouldnt the market cap be 1.039 b or RM 1.32?

Moreover, at RM 1.32 assumes nothing changed since MCO. But what about the increase in Courier volume by 200%? Savings in Interest of RM 10.8m/year? Savings in Fuel of RM 14m/year?

Gdex up 45% since MCO, would it be too demanding for POS to go up to pre-mco level of RM 1.32 (Inclusive of loss of RM 171m for Dec QR)? We're not greedy, we havent factored in Courier 200% increase, Fuel 14m/year cost decrease, Interest 10.8m/year cost decrease.

For courier segment last year 9 months ended Dec 2019 Profit was RM 14,657 million. This was including a malware attack and impairment write down..

If we take 6 months ended September 2019, profit was RM 47.8m for 2 quarters translating into RM 23.9/QR from Courier segment. IF MCO sales up 200% = RM 47.8m profit / quarter, or 23.9 x 4 = RM 95.6 additional profit/year..

So assuming market has priced in rate increase from postal at RM 1.039b, you now need to add in RM 95.6m Profit + 10.8m + 14m profit = RM 120m/year profit

Now let’s try to do the pricing of POS. On 28th May POS had annual profit of 124m and share price of RM 3.62, giving it market cap of 2.8 billion or PE of 22…

If you’re adding 120m profit with P/E of 10 at RM 1.2b market cap to pre-mco fair price of RM 1.039b (after loss of RM 171m), the numbers will look like 1.2b + 1.039 b = RM 2.239b market cap, translating into RM 2.79 Fair Value.

Interesting Note: POS Courier segment is 2.27 times bigger than Gdex (88m vs 200m per QR).

This QR we are seeing Postal 66% effect rate hikes priced in from 1st Feb to 31st March. It has not factored in the 200% volume +, Fuel Savings, Interest Savings of RM 120m/year.
Next QR would be interesting.
30/05/2020 6:37 PM
MichelleNg Yeah...POS undervalued but less people buying. GDEX overvalued and everyone chase to buy higher price. Goreng goreng goreng....
30/05/2020 6:44 PM
MoneyHeist Well said @xterrorsinx
30/05/2020 8:54 PM
Dave92 Pos Malaysia Bhd said while there is an increase in parcel volume during the country’s movement control order (MCO) period, the company’s other businesses including mail and international parcels, besides operations under Pos Aviation and Pos Logistics have been affected badly.

Overall business still lost making.

So dont dream too big.
30/05/2020 9:04 PM
xterrorsinx aviation constitutes about 13% of their total revenue. They have impaired 93 million for logistics and aviation last quarter. POS also sold 50% of their equity in POS Aviation Engineering to Singapore airlines. I'm hoping the impact is cushioned. I believe that the impact on aviation industry and logistics will really be felt in June QR (MCO started in March 18) but it might be offset by the other gains i mentioned above.

"Pos Logistics Berhad will refocus its business which will see it move into higher-margin and scalable services and shifting its operational model to become asset-lighter. The growing automotive sector contributes greatly to Pos Logistics’ business and we foresee positive growth in 2020.

Pos Aviation is expected to remain resilient in the face of continued global uncertainty brought about by Covid-19. A strategic partnership with SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) will enable Pos Aviation’s engineering services to tap into the global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market, enhance its technical expertise and expand its product offerings."
30/05/2020 9:28 PM
30/05/2020 9:40 PM
xterrorsinx By the way, did anyone notice POS has Deferred Tax Asset of 196m due to their losses in 2018 and 2019? When they start earning money they'll save RM 196m from tax in the future.
30/05/2020 10:02 PM
Dave92 Investment Highlights

We project net losses of RM90mil and RM24mil in FY20-– 21F and a net profit of RM31mil in FY22F (vs. a net loss of RM22mil in FY20F and net profits of RM31mil and RM44mil in FY21-–2F previously), largely to reflect lower revenues due to the company’s suspension on some of its’ operations and slower demand amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. We reduce our FV to RM0.58 (from RM1.21 previously), based on a P/B of 0.3x, a 50% discount to its historical P/B of 0.64x, to reflect the unprecedented challenges Pos Malaysia is facing. We downgrade our recommendation to SELL from HOLD.
Pos Malaysia (Pos) will temporarily suspend its international mail and parcel services to most of its destinations (except China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and the UK) with effect from 30 March 2020. This is due to the cancellation of flights as well as closure of airports. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, the international mail/parcel services are estimated to make up around 15% of the company's revenues.
Meanwhile, the express mail services (EMS) will continue with limited destinations (Exhibit 1), while its core segments, i.e. postal and courier services are operating at reduced capacity during the movement control order (MCO) period, despite being listed as one of the essential services as demand is subdued.
We are now projecting greater contraction of 35% in mail volume in FY20F (vs. in the low 20s we assumed previously), as we believe the decline in commercial mail volume (which makes up around 90% of the total mail volume) will accelerate further with businesses stepping up on cost-cutting initiatives as revenues fall off the cliff. We also expect some volume losses on the back of business consolidation amid the economic downturn.
We believe the main challenge for the company is its cost inefficiency as a result of a unionized workforce and its inability to significantly rationalize its extensive network of post offices. Not helping either, is the revenue loss with scaled down operations amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the courier segment continues to face intense competition, resulting in margin squeeze.
30/05/2020 10:57 PM
ITCHYLEG "Dave92 Investment Highlights:"

Are you still sleeping? This news was from 'AmInvest Research Reports' publised on 1 April 2020. Why are you posting this here now? Are you trying to mislead all the readers??? Before you post things here, please apply your knowledge. There are alot of experts here. Don't make a fool out of yourself by posting old news.

We're all here to support and help each other out. We're all in the same boat - to make money. Share the latest news and information.
30/05/2020 11:32 PM
cinapeh Attitute illness
30/05/2020 11:38 PM
xterrorsinx If Gdex with Revenue of 88m and profit of circ. 6 million is worth RM 2.1b. How much is POS with revenue of 200m and profit of RM 24m worth? RM 6b? haha. How much can other segments be impaired? more than 1 billion? I think The Courier force is too big to be ignored. Moreover, Logistics and Aviation have resumed to normal now with CMCO. 117% increase in postal rates, drop in fuel price, and interest rates are in POS favour.

There may be short term challenges reflected in this QR, but i hope Shareholders here look at long term into next QR to reap the results of our patience.

No worries Dave, we welcome your input here. It's a good fact check and I hope POS with Tan Sri's daughter on board and their efforts into digitalisation don't disappoint us.
30/05/2020 11:57 PM
xterrorsinx • The journey into mid-mile automation processing began at the Integrated Processing Centres, located in Shah Alam and KLIA, with an aggregated processing capacity of 530,000 items per day.

• During FP2019, the Group continued the automation journey through the upgrading of 20 distribution centres with semiautomatic sorting machines nationwide. Consequently, this has reduced man-hour involved during processing, with savings of approximately 1-2 hours per day. This has also increased the volume of parcel processing per hour of up to 60%.

POS has also installed automation centres and increased their capacity to meet the demand for courier services. They have increased their capacity by 60%. Potentially, this results in 60% decrease in variable costs (eg. 2 person can do 3 people's job now), resulting in lower costs for increase in volume. So the courier segment profit margin should increase.
31/05/2020 12:44 AM
Jerry Yip buy
31/05/2020 12:46 AM
xterrorsinx 2019 March QR Results

Postal Revenue 189,699
Courier Revenue: 197,642
International: 39, 538
Logistics : 73,042
Aviation: 65,050
Others: 29,708
Total: 594,679 m

Assume International, Logistics, Aviation, others all drop 20%
Assume Courier Revenue up 0%
Assume Postal Volume drop 15%, avg price + 100% (1 feb - 31 march)

2020 Revenue Forecast
Postal Revenue 267,665 (+24.27%)
Courier Revenue: 197,642 (+ 0 %)
International: 31,630 (-20%)
Logistics : 58,434 (-20%)
Aviation: 52,040 (-20%)
Others: 23,766 (-20%)
Total: 631,177 m (+6% or RM 40,176,000)

DRB had sales car increase of 20% for this quarter, so logistics should still do well.

Last March PBT = -133,658, inclusive of Impairment on goodwill: 46m+ Re-delivery one off charge of 44m.
Net Operating loss = RM 43.658 m .

If our revenue increases by RM 40.16 m, we are expecting around RM 3.498 m Loss.

If This QR is RM 3.498m loss, next QR is a BOMB.
200% volume increase in courier, RM 14m/year fuel savings, RM 10.8m/year interest savings. to offset the - RM 3.498 loss this QR.

Potentially looking
Net change in profit for June QR 2020
Postal Services: + RM 103,251 Revenue (100%+ in rate, 15% down in volume)
Courier Services: + 47.8m (200% Courier volume (NP June'19 x 200%))
International: - RM 16,441 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Logistics: - RM 37,717 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Aviation: - RM 31,525 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Others: - RM 14,782 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)

Total = +50,586m
+ Fuel Savings 3.5m (assume RM 1.7/l N95 but likely much lower)
+ Interest Savings RM 2.7m (30% drop in Interest)
= + RM 56.78m - 15m (Loss BT June 2019)
= RM 41.78 Profit before Tax

POS has the biggest logistic fleet in Malaysia of 15,000 riders. They have the highest exposure to Oil drop than any company.

POS is therefore likely to turn into black the next QR due to favourable increase in parcel volume as well as Postal Services. IF the other sectors go back to normal, we will expect less than 50% drop in Revenue which translates into more profit for POS.
31/05/2020 12:58 AM
xterrorsinx Read carefully June 2019 Comment on March 2019's impairment: The group recorded a lower loss before tax of RM15.5 million in the current quarter ended 30
June 2019 compared to RM133.7 million in the preceding quarter ended 31 March 2019 mainly
due to higher cost of sales and operating expenses from one off charges of impairment in the
goodwill of Logistics segment of RM39.6 million and provision for onerous contract for the redelivery charges of leased aircraft of RM44.0 million incurred in the preceding quarter.

March 2019 losses mainly come from impairment and one-off charge. Operating profit wasnt that bad. So we are likely going back to the black very soon.
31/05/2020 1:01 AM
xterrorsinx Do you know that POS also has exposure to gold? ArRahnu - "Starting as a gold asset-based micro-financing provider, Pos ArRahnu has successfully transformed into a one-stop gold centre that provides Islamic micro-financing services, buying and selling of physical gold, retailing of gold jewellery and safe-keeping of gold. Pos ArRahnu currently operates a total of 80 outlets located within selected post offices."

Revenue stream comes from ArRahnu related services (such islamic pawn broking, gold safe keeping, buy-back used gold) as
well as selling investment precious metals (gold bar & gold dinar).

Total Gold bought back
2018 239 kg
2019 158 kg

Total Gold Sold
2018 66.79 kg
2019 31.88 kg

Net Gold FY 18 & 19 = 298.33 kg
1kg = 55,000 USD.
Gold has gone up 1300 usd/ounce (march 2019) - 1600usd /ounce march'20 ) = 23% increase

Just based on valuation of the net gold they're holding in 2018/19, their valuation have increased by RM 16.6m against preceding QR. I'm not sure if they'll reflect this in their QR or not.
31/05/2020 1:42 AM


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