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Overview
Financial Highlight
HeadlinesBusiness Background Tenaga Nasional Bhd, or TNB, is the largest electric utility company in Malaysia. The company is involved in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity. TNB segments its operations into a generation division, a transmission division, and a distribution division. The generation division encompasses the company’s portfolio of thermal and hydroelectric power plants located throughout Malaysia. Through its subsidiaries, TNB also engages in other energy-related operations, such as the manufacturing of transformers and the providing of consulting services. The company primarily generates revenue through the sale of electricity in West Malaysia. Its customers are mainly commercial operations, domestic consumers, and large industrial entities.
  TreeTopView Yeah Lanmum, it seems over the top in the current situation. I'm assuming they are basing at least part of their valuation on things going back to pre Covid EPS (FY19 EPS = 80 cents), with a bit of meat added on for inflation and progressively increasing consumption. I can't see that valuation happening anytime in 2022 :) One can always dream, though ~~~~ 07/01/2022 3:49 PM wongck https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2022/01/09/energy-minister-assures-2022-electricity-tariff-will-not-burden-malaysians/ 09/01/2022 9:20 PM Sam_iman Hope the lowest of the low.. buying time. But to wait until year end for good dividend hah 10/01/2022 3:04 PM nixonteh85 still below my previous selling point, kwap/kwsp tolong dump lagi (before they dump, they may pump first) 10/01/2022 11:44 PM nikicheong Will go below RM9, maybe even RM8. Regulatory overhang + ESG penalties mean there is very little buying interest. Fundamentally though, TNB has a lot of value, much of which will be easily realised once the generation unit is spun off. In the short term, there is price weakness. In the long term, there is deep value here. 11/01/2022 2:02 PM limkokthye https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2022/01/910266/memo-pengeluaran-kwsp-kepada-pm-menerusi-najib 11/01/2022 3:13 PM  kevinobc https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/01/11/high-global-coal-prices-putting-pressure-on-malaysia039s-power-sector 11/01/2022 11:21 PM TreeTopView Technically this one is a tough call at the moment. Needs to break 9.15 convincingly to attempt to move to 9.35 and 9.50. Downside risk if it doesn't break 9.15 is 9.08 and 9.02. 12/01/2022 9:45 AM New_Investor92 Sorry to ask and i'm pretty new here ; apart of I3, nanyang and google where else do you guys browse the source/news about counter? 13/01/2022 9:57 AM TreeTopView New_Investor92, The Bursa website is a handy source of certain information and of course has all the company announcements for the stocks you hold. Being a shareholder you should always keep up to date with the recent company announcements, no matter how trivial some of them may seem. klsescreener also has some handy pages and tools, charting, etc. Best of luck with your investing.....tread carefully :) 13/01/2022 12:17 PM lionel messi Your the man TreeTop. Better show him whether to buy or sell cum in case he's still a vir. Very technical :) 13/01/2022 12:30 PM TreeTopView lol @lionel messi.....I'd wondered if you got my joke on the other thread :) Good to see you are on the ball(s). Have a good one, buddy. 13/01/2022 12:33 PM Wirajati So when will tnb drop to below 9? Quite a while already. Itchy fingers... 13/01/2022 6:59 PM M55555 EPF still disposing. Will stop collecting for time being. Worry it will go below 9 very soon 13/01/2022 10:43 PM KingKong_Doll The current up and down is due to the ambiguity on RP3 loh. Only 3 scenarios can happen 1. 1. RP3 lower than RP2 - This 1 I think very unlikely la. Gomen wan TNB die meh 2. RP3 = RP2 - This 1 very likely. Coz status quo ma. Only TNB will earn less loh coz everything also price increase a'dy. 3. RP3 > RP2 - This 1 is also unlikely la....do this is a commit suicide for current gomen. Unless they increase for industry only but not domestic consumer but this also will have indirectly cause goods price to increase. Additional factor is the coal supply for Indonesia loh. If not supply, need to pay more. Then profit down. Price cannot increase. Jiak lat loh. Also, EPF continues selling to replenish its cash ma. Dividend sudah mau declare. Then the i-citra la, i-ni la, i -wo la.....all need money. Finally cukai makmur will hit TNB this yr loh. Profit definitely over a million d. With the above bad news, what is the good news then??? Actually, nothing and only thing is all about only affect this yr or worst case, till next year. Buy share, if dun buy during bear market, buy in bull meh??? Say say oni......i also sit sideline and see see..... 14/01/2022 1:41 PM KimSua Only the Qtrly reports will show us the direction . How cost is maintain and the 230 mill divestiture of the Daharki power plant and better Q4 revenue will increase the cash flow for the qtr. Should be able to increase the eps to 20ish pending no further surprises on how cost is maintain. Wishful thinking of Revenue nearing 14 billion and PBT of above 1.2 B. But year end accounting can be very tricky , lots of impairments loss vs the divestiture. 14/01/2022 3:11 PM TreeTopView https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/indonesias-recent-coal-export-ban-could-lead-higher-coal-prices-tnb-says-cgs-cimb 14/01/2022 4:07 PM TreeTopView Re the above article, there has been a lot of discussion about who pays for the added fuel costs to Tenaga, so much so that my head spins when I try to think it through, This is an interesting comment from the article..........."“We gather the RP3 paper was ready and waiting for approval from the Cabinet, which will be relooked at again after the flood situation has eased; the higher fuel costs for the period of July-December 2021 will likely be borne by the government and Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik fund,” it added." 14/01/2022 4:11 PM TreeTopView There seems to be two cost debates whenever Tenaga is mentioned in this thread: 1. Who pays the rebate that customers receive? 2. Does Tenaga currently pay the full cost of higher fuel prices? So, point1: I have always been under the understanding that the rebates related to the Covid meltdown were borne by the Government. Tenaga have always maintained that the rebates would be earnings neutral to them and the government have stated numerous times that they have budgeted for the rebates to be returned to Tenaga under one of those government grant schemes that came out during the start of Covid. If I am wrong with that information, then it means all the articles and government quotes have also been wrong. I'd find that hard to believe! Onto point 2: This is where my head starts to spin on my shoulders. I have read nothing until recently about the government paying the extra fuel costs to Tenaga, although there have been "mentions" that the government has to assist due to the RP3 Guidelines. Up until the above article I have never seen any clarity on the matter from either Tenaga or the government. At the moment my thinking is that Tenaga have paid the extra fuel costs by the Quarter end.....however....those extra costs can be claimed back, meaning it MIGHT be in the Tenaga Receivables in the Quarterly/Annual Report. As of now, this is my understanding on both points. I hope I'm right. *head continues to spin* 14/01/2022 4:42 PM spammerx You are correct. But I don't understand why price got dump by the big fund 15/01/2022 8:56 AM TreeTopView spammerx, it's only my opinion, so I'm not saying I'm right, but I think the current price is mainly due to over supply of stock. Let's look at some numbers. Since the beginning of September last year EPF have sold around 85 million shares with an estimated value of around Rm800 million. Take a moment or two to think about that.....ONE seller only, selling approximately Rm800 million in just over 4 months. I personally don't think they have been selling because they believe Tenaga is a bad investment but more to do with the cash they required for all the outgoings from public cash withdrawals due to the Covid situation. Add to that a very weak and falling overall market during that time frame, you then have a situation where a multitude of other holders and those with margin calls adding to the selling volume as the price falls away. Since the third week of September last year the stock has fallen around 10%, I just wonder how many other stocks could actually be that resilient and "only" lose 10% with the huge volume and value selling. There were times in that period when EPF were selling 3+ million shares a day.....everyday! I have sometimes wondered if they had sold other majors instead of Tenaga, such as their bank stocks, if those banks would have been so resilient and only dropped 10%. I suspect they would have fallen more as there would eventually be less buying demand.....but that's just a guess on my behalf. Also, put yourself in the position of a private Fund Manager, you wouldn't move the price higher to buy your stock when you know EPF have to sell, the more logical thing to do is let the price fall and pick up the EPF stock at cheaper prices. The usual supply and demand scenario. I have noticed that EPF have resumed selling again recently, perhaps on the nod from the government that some new EPF withdrawals might be approved. Blame UMNO for this as they are pressuring to allow more to be taken out to supposedly "save the rakyat". Mere political grandstanding by them, in my opinion. Like I said at the beginning, these are just my own personal thoughts but there is a bit of logic to it that MIGHT explain the current price woes. Looking forward, I'm very keen to see the next quarterly in late February, as that could either confirm or dispel some of the myths we have been hearing lately about Tenaga's fuel cost issues. 15/01/2022 10:02 AM soon2795 https://www.wapcar.my/news/will-tnb-be-the-next-petronas-first-ev-charging-hub-in-malaysia-expected-by-2023-39633 16/01/2022 7:00 AM Jamietee Hi Treetopview, based on your comments by 07/01/2022 3:22 PM, may I know how you calculate out the fair value of RM10.40 & RM9.75 for FY21 EPS (RM65.02). Thanks. 16/01/2022 5:49 PM TreeTopView Jamietee, I thought the post was fairly clear with the workings (guesstimates). Do you know what EPS means,....not being cheeky, but I see you are a new poster so might be new to market terms. 17/01/2022 7:59 AM lionel messi HaHa TreeTop, you have become the de facto cram school teacher here. A lot of newbies and noobs are going to benefit from free tuition. Good on ya mate :) 17/01/2022 8:20 AM TreeTopView Who said anything bout FREE, LM? :) I'm working on my fee structure right now.....lol 17/01/2022 8:22 AM Wirajati Cukai makmur Icitra Epf selling Rp3 still no green light Coal price up Flood damages Still holds 9? Yo my hand is very itchy now 17/01/2022 4:04 PM  | |
