Highlights
KLSE: TGUAN (7034)       THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD MAIN : Industrial Products
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
2.70   0.00 (0.00%)  2.70 - 2.72  217,500
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Overview

Market Cap: 1,030 Million
NOSH: 382 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):1,591,277
4 Weeks Range:2.44 - 2.82
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
68.42%
52 Weeks Range:1.95 - 5.72
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
19.89%
Average Price Target: 3.36
Price Target Upside/Downside: +0.66
Stamp duty exempted for year 2021

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 31-Mar-2021 [#1]  |  27-May-2021
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 30-Jun-2021  |  19-Aug-2021
T4Q P/E | EY: 13.03  |  7.68%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 1.46%  |  19.05%
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 1.7474  |  1.55
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: 8.47%  |  11.86%

Headlines

Date Subject
02-Jun-2021 1QCY21 Results Review - Within Expectation
25-May-2021 LiveChat with Thong Guan Industries Bhd - Innovation for Sustainable Efficiency - Kenanga Channel
18-May-2021 Trading Stocks - Thong Guan Industries
17-May-2021 Stocks on Radar - Thong Guan Industries (7034)
21-Apr-2021 Thong Guan Industries Bhd - Unwrapping its potential
04-Apr-2021 THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD – BORING YET BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
30-Mar-2021 Thong Guan Industries Bhd - Spike in Costs = Spike in ASPs
24-Mar-2021 Daily technical highlights – (TGUAN, SCGM)
23-Mar-2021 Stocks on Radar - Thong Guan Industries
13-Mar-2021 通源工业挑战RM2.16/敏源
03-Feb-2021 Mplus Market Pulse - 3 Feb 2021
15-Jan-2021 【行家论股/视频】通源工业 今年订单前景亮丽
15-Jan-2021 Thong Guan Industries Bhd - Beaten Down Too Much
14-Jan-2021 Daily technical highlights – (OCK, TGUAN)
11-Jan-2021 Trading Stocks - Thong Guan Industries
09-Dec-2020 Daily technical highlights – (SKP, TGUAN)
03-Dec-2020 Stocks on Radar - Thong Guan Industries (7034)
19-Nov-2020 Mplus Market Pulse - 19 Nov 2020
19-Nov-2020 Thong Guan Industries - 9MFY20 Above Expectations
18-Oct-2020 In Depth Thong Guan Stock Analysis - Fat Pitch Investing

Business Background

Thong Guan Industries Bhd is a Malaysia based investment holding company. Along with its subsidiaries, the firm is engaged in trading of plastic packaging products. It operates in two segments including Plastic products and Food, beverages and other consumable products. The company generates the majority of the revenue from the plastic products segment which comprises of stretch films, garbage bags, industrial bags and PVC (Polyvinyl chloride) food wrap.
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  14 people like this.
 
auditorandconsultant Dear all, please be patient. I am compiling my information to share to all of you my basis of assumption made in the past especially one trading day before and after 25 May 2021.
04/06/2021 6:43 PM
Pinky Hahaha auditor is back
04/06/2021 8:01 PM
auditorandconsultant Initially, my gang and I planned to go for concentrated investment into MBSB due to the reason below. Very unfortunate matter was that the Syndicates did not press the price of Mother Shares to RM0.55 to ensure 100% losses incurred by Call Warrant Holder this round as compared to last round on 29 Jan 2021. Probably, the Syndicates purposely did not want to press down further because they knew my gang and I were waiting to collect the cheapest MBSB mother share on one (1) trading day before and after 25 May 2021. So next time, my gang and I will be silent and waiting for other better counters since Syndicates already identified my existence.

There is always a reason on why I keep waiting for MBSB to plummet to RM0.55 and below. I was using (1) Call Warrant Exercise Price; (2) Intrinsic Value and Price for Margin of Safety; and (3) Historical performances of MBSB from year 2014 to year 2020 from FCF per share, Net Cash per share and Net Income.

Historical event where my basis of assumption was CORRECT:-
MBSB C31; Expiry date on 29 Jan 2021; Issuer is CIMB; Exercise Price RM0.60; Exercise Ratio 1:1
Formula to calculate the arbitrage gain or price gap for the conversion of call warrant to mother shares:-
= (Price at Expiry Date - Exercise Price) / Exercise Ratio LESS Average Cost of Call Warrant
= (o.595 – 0.600)/1 LESS 0.040
= Maximum loss of 0.040 per call warrant

My Experience:-

My experience when I was working as a consultant to Syndicates and Fund Managers from BVI and Cayman Island told me that there is always a tendency that Syndicates (I could not mention the name or else I will be sued) will purposely throw the mother shares so that the mother share price will plummet. Then, warant holder who aims to convert the call warrant to mother share before the expiry will not be able to make profit from the price gap or what it is normally known as an "arbitrage". The issuer will be the big beneficiary if the price of mother share plummets. I had attempted some counters using this way so I always use the same way whenever I wanted to purchase mother share of MBSB. My recent experience was when I bought MBSB at end of January 2021, i.e. 1 day before and 1 day after 29 January 2021 so as to maximise my return on investment later when I could actually buy MBSB at the lowest point possible using the expiry date of Call Warrant as a benchmark. I experienced this good entry point in Jan 2021 and as such, during 1 week before and after 25 May 2021, I tried to ask everyone to wait for the price of MBSB to drop to RM0.55 assuming that the Syndicates would again press the mother share price to RM0.55.

Experience for MBSB C-32:-

MBSB C32; Expiry date on 25 May 2021; Issuer is AMBANK; Exercise Price RM0.55; Exercise Ratio 2:1

For this round, the Syndicate did not press down aggressively the price of the mother share to RM0.55 which was the exercise price. As such, warrant holder only lost a bit.

Possible hint: Look at the issuer.
I could not tell who the syndicates are and you people is smart to relate the parties such as WA Holder, Syndicates and Issuer of WA.
What is the fact about Ambank? Ambank incurred lot of costs and compensation due to 1MDB case.
Hint for next game by relating your investment decision to MBSB C-34:-

Please refer to my excel spread sheet.I will provide upon request.

Another reason on why I think the current price of MBSB is still expensive to me:-

Intrinsic Value as of early of April 2021 = RM0.72

Price for Margin of Safety (PMOS) = RM0.54 (still my desired price was RM0.55, please refer to my conversation between myself and icepumpkin and yippy68 from my excel spread sheet which I will provide upon request)

Net Cash per share (in cent) from year 2014 (-51.19), 2015 (-65.16), 2016 (46.45), 2017 (-51.85), 2018 (-172.87), 2019 (-229.93) and 2020 (-202)

Free Cash flow per share (in cent) from year 2014 (12.85), 2015 (13.51), 2016 (13.71), 2017 (14.80), 2018 (6.30), 2019 (11.84), 2020 (-20.96)

Net Income from year 2014 (1,015 mio), 2015 (258 mio), 2016 (201 mio), 2017 (417 mio), 2018 (642 mio), 2019 (717 mio) and 2020 (270 mio).

For those who would like to request for my excel spread sheet, please let me know. I send to you via KLSE i3 messenger upon request.

Thank you. My intention is to enable everyone to maximise the return by waiting for the lowest possible price which is the PMOS, a concept founded by Benjamin Graham.

Well, perhaps, my basis of assumption did not work successfully for this MBSB C-32, My intention is to maximise return and at the same time follow Value Investment and Fundamental Analysis.

Disclaimer: This is only a sharing of my idea and basis of assumption. Not an advice to you to decide BUY or SELL. Remember, Buy or Sell at your own discretion and own risk!
04/06/2021 8:22 PM
auditorandconsultant Please let me know if you would like to have my excel spreadsheet which i could share via i3 messenger.
04/06/2021 8:24 PM
auditorandconsultant Due to the above reason, I have been misunderstood in MBSB KLSE i3 forum

You people guessed who is there to create and trigger problem.

The Gardener or Pekebun went there to comment and talk badly about me.

Then, I asked everyone to come here and read all Pekebun comment
04/06/2021 8:35 PM
auditorandconsultant No worry all. We all need to wait for next counter patiently because there are a lot of choices after the total lockdown.

Be patient.
04/06/2021 8:36 PM
Lanmum @auditorandconsultant - Thanks for sharing, appreciate your time and efforts very much. Keep posting here. Just ignore our pekebun sifu.
04/06/2021 10:41 PM
auditorandconsultant @Lanmum

Thank you very much for your understanding and support

So at this juncture, we need to observe and wait because of uncertainty due to Covid 19, total lockdown and government policy

I hope that everyone is happy and satisfied with Tguan performance. Remember my advice is collect on dip and do not chase higher price
04/06/2021 10:58 PM
auditorandconsultant What I mean is other good counter

We need to wait already

Lot of good shares are overvalued or too higher price, good share such as Tongher is overvalued d

So I will wait and wait 耐心战
04/06/2021 11:00 PM
CHONG Kong Hui Good to hear from #auditorAndConsultant again and we look forward to share other good counters .
05/06/2021 9:16 AM
Pinky IMHO there are times to hunt for bargain

And there are times to hold on to what you have and wait it out

And there are times to sell your profitable, overvalued holdings

I think now we're in Stage 2 above, at least for my holdings la. Cheap bargains dah takda la I think.
05/06/2021 2:50 PM
Lanmum Pinky, cheap bargains got - property counters. Sapu la ....
05/06/2021 5:26 PM
chengcheekaan My take on the Q1 2021 report

https://cheekaan.wixsite.com/ckinvestmentblogmy/post/7034-tguan-q1-2021-report
05/06/2021 8:05 PM
auditorandconsultant @chengcheekaan,

TQVM for your insightful thoughts from you blog.
05/06/2021 8:53 PM
Pinky @Lanmum I've been a loyal shareholder of UOADEV for some time already, you no see me talking c0ck on it only hehehe
05/06/2021 10:53 PM
CHONG Kong Hui @Chengcheekaan great sharing. Thanks.
06/06/2021 10:17 AM
Lanmum Pinky clever, already cover up down right left. Uoa sells luxury properties? I thought to buy some mkland, simeprop, l&g to keep
06/06/2021 10:25 AM
Pinky UOA not really very luxury... they're more like middle to lower upper class.

One thing about them that is hard to beat - reputation and product quality

And they're damn cash rich!
06/06/2021 10:38 AM
auditorandconsultant Hi all, I gonna be away for many days already because need to meet tight reporting deadlines.

FYI, I am a full time auditors and freelance consultant. Busy day and night. Hahaha

Even today I am working still from home...

Take good care..... I will be back after rushing and finishing all my works.

PATIENCE is the KEY.
07/06/2021 12:23 PM
auditorandconsultant “The world is full of foolish gamblers and they will not do as well as the patient investors.” Charlie Munger

"I think the record shows the advantage of a peculiar mind-set - not seeking action for its own sake, but instead combining extreme patience with extreme decisiveness." Charlie Munger

"The big money is not in the buying and selling … but in the waiting.” Charlie Munger
07/06/2021 12:25 PM
brian3381 Tis is tguan. Dun talk other counters!!!!
07/06/2021 1:49 PM
calvintaneng Thong Guan good when Oil price cheap

Now Brent Oil over USD71

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price

TGuan will face high feed cost for its plastic product made from Oil

So be careful guys
07/06/2021 1:54 PM
linda77 When carvin ask to buy , u sell

when he ask to sell , u buy

he is a syndicate
08/06/2021 8:34 AM
Pinky @linda77 +100

Whether syndicate or not, I only remember his buy/sell calls usually lead to Holland hahahahaha
08/06/2021 8:36 AM
LossAversion When calvin writes, just laugh this desperado off!!
08/06/2021 8:39 AM
Fear Trend CALVIN is full of shit la
08/06/2021 8:40 AM
LossAversion at least Fear Trend concur with me, after all the shit he said on plantation stocks!!!
08/06/2021 8:41 AM
Bgt 9963 Hoot9e...!
08/06/2021 8:44 AM
Lanmum Pinky, I guess you gain a lot from UOA div. Good spot on bro.
08/06/2021 10:07 AM
Lanmum Bro Calvin calls usually takes a beating only can go up. Let say, at least after 2 - 3 Q only will go up. Not bad tough. Haha
08/06/2021 10:10 AM
Pinky @Lanmum meaning his prophecies will come true...after a while? hahahahaha

Yea UOA is a good dividend stock
08/06/2021 11:28 AM
Lanmum @Pinky. Yea. Some takes years hor bro Calvin. I respect everyone here. We all have different thinking and preferences. Thats why human are all unique living beings.
08/06/2021 11:35 AM
collie technically, tguan looks ready to surge to meet previous high and potentially new high around 2.9
08/06/2021 11:48 AM
Pinky Fuiyo 2.80 mau mari dah
08/06/2021 11:51 AM
Pinky @Lanmum actually I buy his opinion on palm oil stocks

But just dunno why while fundamentally sound, the prices just won't go up, but down

Hahahahaha we cantonese call this - "mulut burung gagak"
08/06/2021 11:52 AM
Lanmum Wah @collie, i trust u. gogogo.
08/06/2021 11:55 AM
Lanmum @ Pinky, Theoretically, all plantations and lumber ctr should go up. But dunno why. Maybe takes sometime. in fact, a lot of people dissapointed and stuck there too.
08/06/2021 11:59 AM
Pinky Labour shortage issue is very real bro

But at the same time if u read the management commentary of some of them, this pandemic is the perfect opportunity/excuse for them to start innovating, i.e. start reducing dependence on labour

In the long run it will turn out well, just give time

Okay la don't talk other stock/sector liao, nanti ada orang marah hahahahaha
08/06/2021 12:04 PM
collie hahaha hopefully la @Lanmum, since it looks good now, close above 2.75 resistance will be a good sign.
*btw, my new high means current trend, not the all time high*
08/06/2021 12:13 PM
collie So many collecting sia hahaha
08/06/2021 4:16 PM
BobbyAxelrod During lockdown, the demand for plastic packaging surges for quite some time as evidenced by these counters previous lockdown's financial results. Most counters $SCGM $TGUAN $SCIENTX $DAIBOCI $TOMYPAK $SLP are now reasonably priced. Thank me later.
09/06/2021 10:37 AM
auditorandconsultant @Lanmum @Collie @Pinky @LossAversion @Chong Kong Hui @ks Shien

How are you my friends in Tguan? Hope that everyone is doing well.

I have aimed another counter instead of MBSB.

Finally, I have decided to join BAT this big family after studying since Jan 2021. Yesterday, I bought some at the entry price of RM14.32.

I trust the top management from BAT.

EPS - 2018 (164.20 cents), 2019 (121.00 cents), 2020 (84.70 cents)

FCF per Share - 2018 (161.77 cents), 2019 (108.57 cents), 2020 (62.09 cents)

I am not too worried about the decreasing EPS and FCF because the above result has not taken E-Cigarette sales in future into consideration.

With the Company's plan to cut cost (plan to move some services to Pakistan for Shared Services) and business expansion, I have no worry about this counter.

For Thong Guan, I am definitely positive towards its development especially the top management and their strategy in combating all kinds of obstacles and challenges during this Pandemic.

I wish all in Tguan will HUAT CHAI. Remember, do not Chase High.

Disclaimer: This is only a sharing of my idea. Not an advice to you to decide BUY or SELL. Remember, Buy or Sell at your own discretion and own risk!
09/06/2021 2:19 PM
Lanmum Hi auditorandconsultant > we are doing great. Hope you are in the well. Your busy is over? OK I look at batman later. Thanks
09/06/2021 2:22 PM
Lanmum Hi auditorandconsultant, can ask how you calculate FCF?. I see so many way to calculate. Any simple way? Thanks
09/06/2021 2:36 PM
Pinky BAT? Hmm...used to be one of the bluest of blue chips.

Auditor looking for dividend yield? BAT is not a stock that I foresee any meaningful growth.
09/06/2021 2:52 PM
LossAversion BAT!!!??? Well, I had been thinking about this safe haven too, but I beg to differ in opinion with you on this stock.....not on fundamentals, but more on my advocates on personal health.
Thank you auditorandconsultant for your views, and I wish you well and stay safe.
09/06/2021 3:15 PM
Pinky @LossAversion invest is to make money

You wanna talk ethics about investing meh? XD

Btw I smoke Marlboro, Philip Morris Malaysia not listed so cannot buy hahaha
09/06/2021 3:18 PM
LossAversion @Pinky...I try to make my money without compromising on my belief system. Just like most of us try not eat shark finsoup, right? Ha, ha. This way, I can sleep, eat and libe well....smile
10/06/2021 12:26 PM
wallstreetrookie Still some small upside within the next few quarters
10/06/2021 2:31 PM
Lanmum Rookie sifu, what say some small upside. I thought its a big potential. Can explain at ....
10/06/2021 5:58 PM


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