Highlights
KLSE: QL (7084)       QL RESOURCES BHD MAIN : Consumer
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
6.15   -0.17 (2.69%)  6.11 - 6.30  2,463,800
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Overview

Market Cap: 9,978 Million
NOSH: 1,622 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):6,232,010
4 Weeks Range:6.11 - 7.36
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
3.20%
52 Weeks Range:4.28 - 7.63
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
55.82%
Average Price Target: 5.95
Price Target Upside/Downside: -0.20

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 30-Sep-2018 [#2]  |  26-Nov-2018
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 31-Dec-2018  |  26-Feb-2019
T4Q P/E | EY: 47.83  |  2.09%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 0.73%  |  35.00%
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 3.73  |  1.65
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: 6.28%  |  3.45%

Headlines

Date Subject
13-Dec-2018 Malaysia Strategy – 3Q18 Results Wrap
13-Dec-2018 QL Resources Bhd - Peeking Into 2H19
12-Dec-2018 下跌股:全利资源RM6.32支撑
07-Dec-2018 下跌股:全利资源RM6.48支撑
04-Dec-2018 13 things to know about QL Resources before you invest (updated 2018) - Ian Tai
02-Dec-2018 [转贴] [Facebook live:浅谈QL Resources bhd (QL)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing
30-Nov-2018 上升股:全利资源阻力RM7.50
29-Nov-2018 全利资源 业务抗跌长期看好
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources - Premium Valuations
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources - Steady 1H19, Offset by Palm Oil Segment
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources - Banking on marine growth
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources Berhad - Ramping up production of its surimi-based product
27-Nov-2018 Mplus Market Pulse - 27 Nov 2018
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources - Premium valuations
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources Berhad - Supported By Lower Tax Expenses & Recovery In Fish Catch
27-Nov-2018 QL Resources - 1H19 Within Expectations
08-Nov-2018 Daily technical highlights – (DRBHCOM, QL)
07-Nov-2018 Technical Analysis - QL Resources
29-Oct-2018 M+ Online Technical Focus - 29 Oct 2018
29-Oct-2018 Daily Market Update - 29 Oct 2018 (QL, GPACKET)

Business Background

QL Resources Bhd farms and manufactures eggs and fish substitutes in various regions throughout Asia. The livestock segment distributes animal feed and raw materials (including eggs), and young poultry to Asia-Pacific regions. The marine segment has a wider reach than the livestock segment as it produces and distributes fishmeal and other fish-based products to Asia, Europe, and North America. Additionally, the company operates plantations and mills to produce crude palm oil. It has worked on transforming the waste from the mills into renewable energy and minimizing its milling process' environmental impact.
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  3 people like this.
 
striker888 The sorry fool probably said the same when QL was RM3 before the multiple splits of shares. Oh it's too highhhh. Sohai indeed.
06/12/2018 15:47
Ricky Yeo It's okay to say 'i don't know' if you don't know the answer instead of going in circles. It is irrelevant to mention the movement of the historical share price because that doesn't answer the original question as to why "it will be worth more than 7/11". Since you come up with that hypothesis, yet unable to quantify it, I'll just ignore it.

It is surprisingly easy to find out if someone know what he is talking about by asking him to quantify his words. Like a hot knife through butter.
06/12/2018 16:13
JW Leong Where is the sohai indeed?
07/12/2018 10:58
striker888 All your self styled smartasses trying to quantify some theoretical numbers while the real high stock price staring at you?. If I sold my stock today, I'd have real money in my bank, and you'd have your pseudo numbers.

You know how Newton was burned in the stock market because he thought he had "quantified" the prices. Yeah of course you're smarter than Isaac Newton, not!! Haha.
07/12/2018 14:33
ciaksai Affin, RHB, Kenanga ask eat shit also nice to eat. Salute to EPF for selling.
07/12/2018 14:37
ciaksai Let you all push EPF sell more. Pay 6% dividend from QL big gain.
07/12/2018 14:43
Ricky Yeo No one is trying to be a smartass here, but definitely try not to carry the historical price around your mouth whenever you want to make an argument. It is like someone can't answer a question and go around telling people how much is in his bank account, it doesn't serve any purpose.

I don't know what is more pseudo, is it more pseudo trying to get an explanation behind why FM is worth 2 bil? Or is it more charlatan that one says FM is worth 2 bil because the queue at a FM store nearby is longer than 7-11 store and yet unable to offer a shred of evidence to justify that logic? We can go on this forever and you still unable to offer a figure. That tells a lot how much you know about QL. Do me a favour, if you going to tell everyone how much you have make at QL before you want to make a discussion, you can save that.
07/12/2018 14:55
striker888 OK I don't know what I'm talking about. I'll just keep quiet with my 4x returns on QL investment, you win win liao. So how much have you made? Must be a lot more because you have all the numbers, hahaha.
07/12/2018 15:04
JW Leong Come on sell the tickets to me! I like to eat fishballs and eggs everyday
07/12/2018 15:39
Ricky Yeo Your message really sounds like "hey don't ask me to explain, but just trust me because I have made a lot of money in the market, so trust whatever I have to say."

IF you say you don't know then we can stop here now. I'm not interested in discussing how much I have made nor am I interested in how much you made. If you want to boost your ego, you can talk to others so others can worship you. Because it seems like that is the only thing you have to offer.
07/12/2018 16:15
striker888 Because Ricky boy, the only thing matters in investment is the results to show for it. Come on show us how good you really are than talks
07/12/2018 16:42
Ricky Yeo Is it? Then you shouldn't talk about why FM is worth $2+ because you haven't got anything to back it up.
07/12/2018 17:23
klangkopitiam https://mymetastockjournal.blogspot.com/2018/12/ql-resources-bhd-klse-ql-7084-update.html
11/12/2018 15:02
monkeyinvestor ql 在做头!GG
12/12/2018 00:09
4444 https://www.thestartv.com/v/are-cartels-colluding-to-fix-higher-prices-for-eggs-asks-saifuddin
12/12/2018 03:29
shpg22 No doubt the company will still grow, but at this ridiculous valuation (P/E 51.8x, P/B 5.7x) better keep your money in the FD. Current price is like paying upfront for 10 years of continuous growth at min 20% CAGR. Only fools are willing to part their money for the deal.
13/12/2018 00:13
shpg22 Remember in stock investing, Do not overpaid for something good, otherwise prepare to get whacked.
13/12/2018 16:42
10154899906070843 Ricky how about these for hard facts, let's use comps.

There are 80 fm stores in Klang valley area, daily turnover around 6k with mostly fresh food and seafood kombi direct from ql, higher margins than seven eleven which doesn't carry their own products ( low margin). No differentiation between 7-11 and mynews etc. QL spent 100m in 2016 to in operating budget open up these stores, and they have a much deeper capital to reinvest. FYI the profit returns from fm is enough to generate new store openings, unlike 7-11.

There are 2240 7-11 stores in Malaysia, with low margin items and high debt ( from which you can do comparison), the returns from 7-11 are only enough to pay dividends and small growth. They are taking on more debt to grow the 7-11 stores, which are becoming more saturated and can't be grown organically.

Now, which do you think has the bigger future and growth opportunity, the vertically built company with production, manufacturing and now retail? Or the other company which frankly is built to only drive out and bully the mom and pop kedai runcit and doesn't even make a good profit. Do you think 7-11 can double the number of stores in the next 5 years? Is that even possible?

And if you do the math, right now fm is worth more than 2 billion to ql simply because 80 stores generate 150m in sales per year, ql has the opex cashlow to add even more stores if needed, and if you think 5 years or 10 years ahead (pe10), you are looking at 200-300 stores in Malaysia which would add 300-400m in sales, at 5% profit margin internally is around 20m. However when you look at ql bottom line which is linked to surumi, poultry, eggs and palm oil products then you will understand what is meant by vertical integration.

Now look even deeper into things. What happens when fm hits 800-1000 stores? QL would be able to start producing and selling even more specialized products under their brand umbrellas mushroom, suria, ika, ql Omega and Sakura at higher prices because right now people look at fm and think quality, same way people look at Nestle and think quality.

If you really want to do comps, don't just look at pe or profit, compare growth speed and market valuations.

Nestle Malaysia is a 30 billion company with 5 billion sales at 12% margins, pe 50

QL resources is a 10 billion company with 3.6 billion sales at 7% margins, pe 50

But now look deeper and look at how the much cashflow is being used to grow the business, affecting current profit now for future growth. Look at the factories, refineries and plants being built right now that can handle future orders.

Now ask yourself what a monopoly means, how growth works, and what people are investing in. There are hundreds of companies which have pe of 2 and 3 etc but never make you money because it doesn't grow, but only a few companies in Malaysia similar to Google or Facebook or Amazon which can consistently grow over a 20 year period.

In the end a business is only worth holding if it grows, and pe doesn't mean a thing if no one buys the shares.

FYI I also continuously bought my shares at 3.90 more than 7 years ago, then it split, and then it went up to 7, so whatever drop you are looking at now doesn't change how a great business works.
14/12/2018 11:15
10154899906070843 Sorry a bit more of a rant Ricky, cos you don't seem to want to digest what other people are saying.
Last year annual report,

Nestle Malaysia spent a part of their 5 billion revenue 138 million in new equipment, plant and machinery.

Now look at QL resources, they spent 338 million of their 3.6 billion revenue on new factories, plants and machinery. That's how much cash they are churning out, that's how much growth they are expecting.

Now for those who didn't buy Amazon back in the day ( I learned this lesson far too late) because pe was like 300+ or something, digest this.

In fact, I won't give you the answer, find out and reply back here.

Did Amazon lose money every year for all those years? Or did they just make a minimal break even every year because they were pumping every single cent back into growing the business?

And now Amazon is a trillion dollar company.

PE is just a ratio. I can turn it into any figure I want. If you want to understand a business, read the financial notes. Then read the cash flow statements. Then read the assets and debts. Then look at the business and see who else above them. That's how you do comps.
14/12/2018 11:32
10154899906070843 Shpg22 fyi, if you want to fudge numbers I can just as easily change the earnings part by omitting their opex growth to get a feel of how the business is doing.

If we take out their future expansion of 338 million, and use that plus the 65 million declared profit we'd get roughly P/E 3+ if they stopped investing in growing their business.

What do you say to that?

Also your book value is also not accurate, because a lot of their land assets for palm oil and factory grounds and lands have not been restated for a long time. So if you just want to invest based on wsj or morningstar estimate of book value you better spend a bit more time on reading financial reports. Otherwise you'd just be another Warren buffet wannabe.
14/12/2018 11:43
shpg22 We ll see who is wannabe.
14/12/2018 16:51
Ricky Yeo @10154899906070843 I think trying to lump QL with Amazon and Nestle is really stretching the definition of comparing.

Let's do a thought experiment,say QL can increase FM stores to 800 in the next 10 years, which is aggressive given that is around $800 mil in capex but we assume it's doable. Based on your 5% margin (because of vertical integration), that gives you a profit of $40 mil (800mil sales x 5%). Given that you think FM is easily worth $2 bil, in other words, you're saying you're happy to pay 50x in today's money for FM's earnings in year 2029 (2 bil / 40 mil). To put this in the quantum of things, you're happy to open a term deposit account with $2000 deposits that will pay you a $40 dollar interest in 2029.

Maybe you going to say PE has no meaning, given that Nestle, Amazon have high PE too. But why do those 2 companies have high PE, is it because of growth? No doubt growth partly explain why a stock deserve high PE, but that is not the key reason a stock has high PE because growth doesn't explain why Nestle and Amazon have the same PE when clearly Amazon is growing way faster than Nestle. High PE stocks can only be justified if the business can generate a high return on capital.

Let's ignore QL and focus solely on FM. Given the logic you're happy to pay PE 50 for 2029's earnings, FM as a standalone needs to have a really high ROC. In fact, 'really high' is an understatement. We already have the numbers.

ROC formula is EBIT / Average of (Net fixed Assets + Net Working Capital)

Instead of the complexity of 80 stores or 800 stores, we look at a single store economic. A single store capex is around 300K. Add in refurbishment of 100k say every 5 years to maintain earning power, therefore around 320K in investment. Based on 5% margin, a single store can earn around 100k a year. Translate into a return of around 30% which is really good. But I still find it hard paying $2 bil even with this kind of return.

Now I have digested what you're saying. Feel free to correct me.
15/12/2018 08:05
10154899906070843 The words let's ignore ql and focus solely on fm shows you are totally in your own world, ignoring facts and just plucking figures out of the air to fit your thesis. When you say paying pe50 for ql ( which obviously includes all the net fixed assets, where again I repeat ql did 338 million in new fixed capex overall from the annual financial report last year) but try to fit only fm into the pictures, where exactly do you get the "numbers" other than ql saying their fm operations broke even this year ( after spending 100m in 2016 to start the fm business). Anyway, how does a single fm store costs you 300k to build with 100k refurbishment every 5 years? I'm really curious where you got these figures.

Here are REAL figures because you really should get instead of plucking figures out from the air.

The master franchisee in Malaysia of family Mart is maxincome resources sdn bhd, which is a full subsidiary of QL. As far as I know QL doesn't report the breakdown performance of family Mart. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

So if you really want to look at exact performance, you should go and invest and buy the ctos/ccris reports of maxincome sdn bhd so you can have an exact idea of how they are doing.

Key questions you should be asking, after they pumped 100m into starting the franchisee, how much more did they have to pump to keep the company afloat. They also said they are breaking even in 2019, 3 years after starting fm, what does that mean? And their p/l breakdown? Their assets? Their company stability? All of these are available when you buy the reports, same as a bank when they do analysis on whether to give a loan to you.

They don't pluck figures out of the air. Anyway, I first bought 100k shares when it was really cheap almost 10 years ago and held on to it until now, with stock split and price increase until today.

And in all that time the only reason why I never sold those shares and even added with my dividends was for one simple reason, monopoly.

As long as that doesn't change, my buying habits into ql will simply not change 20 years from now. Hopefully.

Warren buffet says that you should invest as if you only have 3 stocks that you can buy in your entire life. When you realize what he means you will quickly find out that there are only a few guaranteed stocks you can buy, stocks with monopoly/duopoly structures that are economy resistant.

I'm now happy to say that I have more than 400k shares in QL collected over the years which are almost ten-baggers in capital gains now.

It may be small compared to the profits you have gained from your trading/fundamental pe/ etc, but I have the conviction to go big and go long on this stock almost 10 years now. I only have 4 stocks in my portfolio.

How well have you done with all your research, Ricky boy?
16/12/2018 14:00
10154899906070843 FYI Ricky, how is comparing Nestle Malaysia and QL resources stretching the definition of comparison. Who else do you compare QL to in bursa?

Both are into commodities, one basically imports raw materials from overseas/local and processes it for local Malaysia consumption.

The other processes locally manufactured goods( seafood, eggs, chickens, palm oil) into finished goods for local consumption.

Both have retail operations ( one uses shelf space from hypermarkets and distributors like Harrisons /wholesalers etc) while the other uses FM/ hypermarkets/ and sells to wholesalers.

One is 30b market cap with slowing growth, pe50 and 10+% margins for commodities with brand recognition. 5 billion sales.

The other is 10b market cap with high growth for commodities market, pe50 with 7% margins with brand recognition (family Mart). And growing 3.6 billion sales.

I mean, who else is in this market?

Do you even know what QL resources does?? It's really not a stretch to say once layhong lays over, and fm has 300-500 stores around Malaysia, once palm oil plantations recover, seafood demand increase and supply constricts, that margins go up to 9%, sales go up to 5 billion revenue. When that happens, would it be fair for QL resources to hit at least 20 billion market cap?

Obviously I don't know when that will happen. But it will happen sooner or later. I guarantee it in a commodities market ( unlike construction, or tech) because of human needs, volume, vertical integration.

If 3-5 years from now the market cap doubles, if you buy now you would make almost 20% annually. It's the kind of business even idiots can run once the system is in place.

Monopoly.
16/12/2018 14:18
Ricky Yeo 1. A FM store that cost 250-300K capex and 100k estimate refurbishment is all in theedge or the star news, you're welcome to Google.

2. Ignoring QL is not ignoring facts, we are talking about if FM is worth 2 bil, because that's where the market is expecting the future growth to come from.

3. Average daily turnover of $6k comes from Affin, not the skies. Unless you have a better figure, give it to me.

4. Don't ask me to buy reports, since you're saying QL or FM isn't overvalued, so show me the numbers to support your view why it isn't. I have already put out mine.

5. How many shares, how much conviction you have is irrelevant and are no evidences to show QL is not overvalued or FM is worth $2 bil. Stick to the topic.

6. Whether market cap doubles in 5 years or not again is irrelevant to the discussion whether FM is worth 2 bil.

7. So far your justification why QL or FM is worth what they are now is only supported by comparing to Nestle using market cap, sales etc but nothing substantial to justify valuation like how does the future earnings contribution of FM is likely to be? And are they enough to fill the high expectation from the market? What is the cashflow QL or FM is likely to generate etc
16/12/2018 15:10
10154899906070843 The star news is your source of facts? Ok you have the upper hand. Anything other people say you will just have guesstimates, worthless talking to kids like you who don't ever read financial reports from sdn bhd or even annual reports, and simply rely on Google for everything.

Why should I show you numbers from reports that I paid money to buy?

Good luck in your investing future, lazy to even explain to you investing principles.
16/12/2018 15:20
Ricky Yeo If you're prepare to discuss, then better prepare to have your numbers ready. And to be frank, do I need to buy reports to find out how much FM can potentially earn per store? 7-11 is a really good benchmark and FM stores in Japan can roughly tell you how much per store can earn.

7-11 average sales per year is around $1 mil per store, Affin is optimistic to assign 6k gross per day, which is around $2.19 mil per FM store. At 5% margin you claim, that's $110k profit per store, so they expect 300 stores in 5 years, that's around 33 mil profit, we can start here. That's PE60 of earnings in 2022-23 based on 2 bil valuation of FM. Feel free to tear apart my thesis.

Let's put aside seniority or age, whether I am a kid or elderly or CEO doesn't say anything, just as whether you are the 30 largest shareholders of QL or a retiree has nothing to do with the topic. Well that says a lot that I can back my reasoning with figure purely from Google (even if my reasoning is absurdly wrong, at least I show my hypothesis is backed with certain sets of assumption). But I am still waiting for yours.
16/12/2018 16:07
ciaksai PH govn tipulah. Barang tak turun why monopoli business ayam, telur tak cancel?
16/12/2018 18:14
ciaksai FM monopoly can have? Why cannot have BM, CM if PH have rakyat interest?
16/12/2018 18:17
ciaksai Ask Affin eat shit with their TP. No wonder now M'sians complain on egg, chicken price. Affin behind?
16/12/2018 18:21
Ricky Yeo That's okay, im in the mood to explain investing principle. How much a business is worth comes from the free cash flow it can generate over its entire lifetime. FCF being the operational cash flow generated by the business after the maintenance capex required to maintain its current earning power.

PE is simply a rule of thumb as to the expectation of the stock market on a particular stock. A stock with high PE (adjusted for any abnormal earnings) typically signify the market is expecting a future high growth, or put it simply, the ability to grow and generate high FCF in the future, even if current operation is making minimal profit or loss. Hence, the ability to generate high FCF has to be supported by some form of competitive advantage or moat. And one thing to keep in mind is growth is great only when business can earn an abnormal return, that is, return that far exceed the opportunity cost or cost of capital of the business. Put it another way, the difference between the ROC and its CoC determine the attractiveness of the business. But more importantly, the ability to maintain high level of ROC for at least a decade is what all high PE stocks needs to have in order to justify paying a high valuation. So 3 things a high PE stocks must at least satisfy:

1. Abnormal ROC - Substantially higher than CoC, preferably, higher than peers
2. Long CAP (competitive advantage period) - Ability to maintain abnormal ROC for many years
3. Long runway - a large market so reinvestment rate can be close to 100% (zero payout)

So does QL or FM satisfy these 3 points? QL's ROC of 11-15% over the past 5 years are satisfactory, but far from 'abnormal'. For FM, no one knows. ROC for Japan FM is around 13%, again, satisfactory but not abnormal. But this is fine, if the CAP is long.

How long is the CAP is hard to answer. If there is a competitive advantage, for both QL and FM, it can only be found in scale economies. QL certainly have the scale in what they're doing, and their main business should do fine for a long time. Does FM has a long cap? Possibly once they establish scale, but again, I don't see how they can earn abnormal ROC, in particular the competitiveness of retail industry.

What about long runway? QL has limited runway, given operation is solely in Malaysia, although expanding into neighboring countries. Their competitive advantage and scale are more restricted to Malaysia, and growth is going to track around population and gdp growth, which is in single digit. FM in contrast, has long runway starting from a base number of only 30-80 stores. But how much convenience store (CVS) can Malaysia accommodate? Every country is different, but if we use Taiwan which has very similar population number, their CVS ratio is 2211 people per CVS. That translate to about 14,020 stores for M'sia population. But keep in mind TW's annual household income is 8x of Malaysia (USD13K vs USD1.7K) hence convenience store capacity at present will be alot less than 14,020. But even if we assume there is indeed a long runway, considering FM's aggressive plan to add 300 stores in 5 years, the economic of earnings per store still couldn't not justify a valuation of 2 bil, and further unable to justify QL's current valuation since earnings of 300 stores can't even contribute to 10% of QL's net income.

Hence it is my hypothesis that QL or FM growth prospects based on those 3 points cannot justify their current valuation of 10 bil. Even if FM turns out way better than my estimation, current valuation will only allow one to achieve a market average return, not abnormal return.
16/12/2018 18:33
Pewuf i think the number dude fell in love with his QL, so happened that his pick prospered so he tried to reinforce his "belief" with more biases...its alright if your lucky pick is a winning stock
17/12/2018 17:36
10154899906070843 Hi pewuf,

My other 3 investments since 2009 buy and hold till now was in yinson, public bank and top glove. All lucky picks taken from Google, affin, and whatever the other one Ricky said. :)

Funny thing is, when I bought shares of each stock back then, the same financial asset managers said these counters were risky, they were too high, pe not good, growth prospects max out.

Luckily I listened to myself instead. To be honest, I'm not really good at reading all those details and ratios and technical analysis mumbo jumbo.

All I know is in bursa you can buy shares but you can't short them. Therefore our market becomes very unique because you can't punish bad stocks, only can don't buy them. And because of that the market will value good companies far higher than normal.

So my job becomes easy. I don't know about all those methods, but I do know business. And in business companies with monopolistic characteristics will be far more resilient and reliable in the long term than normal malaysia counters.

In Malaysia most companies are basically small cap. That's why there are many cartels that know small fish like you who just learned about Warren buffet 1-2 years and think they can invest like him based on PE and time of thumb etc. And most of the time, they will work to push those small caps to present value traps which looks nice to newbie 1-2 year investors like Ricky yeo with their smarts into "investing" in those companies which they then goreng and let the bottom fall out. I pity people like Ricky because I see them all the time. They never make money in the long run.

All I am saying is if you want to invest in bursa, always look to the business first and foremost. Understand the business. Then look at the numbers. After you look at the numbers and the business, then you ask yourself am I buying a wonderful business at a fair price?

I'm proud to say I've never sold a single share of these companies since 2009, and I've been DRIP personally and with my excess cash ever since.

Before Ricky goes into another troll rant, just ask yourself this. What shares in bursa market have you bought and held for at least 5 years, and made a profit? And if you had to hold a share for the next 10 years what would you buy and hold? Because it's been proven, long term investors like me win over short term daytraders like Ricky yeo over any metric.

Whatever Ricky says about ql not being with 10 billion and overvalued etc, I know that sooner or later ql is going to be worth northwards of 20 billion value. I don't know when, but I do know that ql is paying me a growing dividend every year to find out and splitting my shares. And since my risk is basically near zero, I don't mind waiting.

Now Ricky, do share with us your latest grand profits from your forex currency trade? Don't bother denying, I know amateur fund managers like you always think zero sum games are winnable.
18/12/2018 01:41
10154899906070843 Anyway, I'm sure none if you kids went to agm last year, which had pretty good food. If you did you will be far more interested in the details of their business more than anything. Here are some details that you probably won't learn unless you went to the agm directly and heard what they have to say:

1. QL spent 25 million in the cold storage factory in tuaran, KK last year to basically freeze and process tiger prawns for sale to China and Australia. And if you know anything about construction ,25 million just to build a huge freezer is very impressive. I won't tell you the metric ton per month they sold last year, you can find that out from Google yourself. And yes some of it is also being sold to premium FM at much higher profit margins than normal.
2. They are now 3% of Vietnam poultry and egg market. And growing exponentially.
3. They are now 10% of Indonesia poultry and egg market. Definitely growing exponentially.
4. They also are now one of the cheapest and fast growing feed mill manufacturer in both countries. Vertical integration. And when Ricky says QL business is only in Malaysia I shake my head and laugh.
5. Their surimi business is biggest in asean. FYI this is pure monopoly, as they are providing interest free loans to fishermen to buy or lease boats and equipment with the only requirement being that all catches to be sold QL first. Guess how many fishermen in asean owns their own boats versus loans from QL?
6. It's looking more and more likely that QL will own the entire egg industry in Malaysia. And as there is no control over monopoly in Malaysia, guess who wins?
7. Guess how many new acres of land in Indonesia is QL investing in for their palm oil activities?
8. Guess who family Mart has to buy all their fresh foods and materials from daily? Who else has that funky seafood dip food contraption? When family Mart wins, ql wins bigger.
9. I forgot. It's pretty important, but this uncle getting sleepy now, jet lag and attending my daughter's graduation in San Fransisco.

Have fun digesting.
18/12/2018 02:17
Ricky Yeo Thanks uncle for the writing while you're on holiday. But what are you trying to prove? That long-term investor is smarter than daytrader? You have to come off from your own ego. And it is necessary to know the limit of your knowledge and luck. In order to satisfy your ego, I don't daytrade, I own Scientex for 6 years but I am in no illusion to think Scientex will become certain market cap in 10 years or will always perform well like in the past. Just because Scientex gave me 800+% return I'm in no illusion that I know everything about it. That is the problem with long-term investor that I like to avoid, the illusion of safety after a stock has gone up for a long time, that kind of delusion is what kills people that own Gtronic, MYEG etc because they believe nothing can go wrong.

And as a matter of fact, I like to stress again, regardless of age, the label you gave yourself i.e long-term investors, growth, trader, speculator. Those are irrelevant. When you are in the forum, I only label you as an intelligent human, and expect that you can argue and discuss based on facts, logic and reasoning without telling people how much you own this or how much you make. That is more like ranting to me. And I am surprise I get called a daytrader but at least I can throw out my hypothesis. I am still waiting for yours to justify QL and FM valuation.

1. 25 mil cold storage factory - Great. I appreciate if you can tell ROC for building that
2. 3% in Vietnam - That's certainly great, they are growing good revenue.
3. 10% in Indonesia - Same. But I believe QL is not the only vertical integrator in both countries. How much market share can they grab and steal remains an unknown.
4. I never said QL is only in Malaysia. I said scale advantage is prominent in Malaysia given their market share. Maybe study a bit about scale economies.
5. Monopoly is great. So how is that translating into cash flow for QL?
6. Own entire Malaysia, great. Which means there is no exponential growth in Malaysia, and given eggs price is capped, volume tied to GDP and population growth. QL certain win. But cash flow growth won't be coming from Malaysia.
7. Does that matter? Let me go pick a plantation company that invest more acres of land than QL so you will feel impressed?
8. Yes FM buys from QL because they are the franchise, so? Even without FM, QL's customers orders their fresh foods from them as well. So what's the point you trying to say?
9. Tell me when you remember. Must be you are going to tell me how to justify FM 2 bil valuation. Can't wait.
18/12/2018 04:53
ajibkor PH only good at cheating.
18/12/2018 05:13
Ricky Yeo Uncle (as out of respect way of calling), I don't tell people how much I made (unless it is relevant to the context), how many shares I've, how much return because that is a huge sign of insecurity. When someone can't discuss the core topic, they talk about someone's personality, or his own great return, how much he made etc. Uncle, it is great you are a long-term investor, never sold a share since 2009, and in all honesty, that is a positive trait, but using that as a leverage to lower others that have different opinion only shows how insecure you are.

And whether I am a Warren Buffett wannabe, newbie, Harvard PHD graduate or what not, whether I attend AGM, married/single, does it matter? If you are so eager to categories me, it's because you're stereotype and insecure, personalise the market and create an identity build on a huge ego and pride.

While certain information are great i.e Indo & Viet growth and market share, but most of the information are meaningless i.e 25 mil cold storage, investment in plantation, who FM is buying from etc. I can tell you Scientex is largest FPP in Asia, how much they invest in opening factory in US, how much they spend acquiring Daibochi etc so what? Those are meaningless information. The only thing matter is what is the future ROC? You can't tell me. What is the future cash flow? You can't tell me. What is the store economic of FM? You can't tell me. I am not asking for precise figure of course. But at least something that can be tied to why valuation of $10 bil is fair and reasonable. Imagine someone ask me why Scientex should worth $4 bil market cap, and I say "Scientex is the biggest FPP manufacturer in Asia. Monopoly" You know how silly that sounds? Nokia has MONOPOLY too in 2007 with 49.4% market share, then what happened? AOL was a monopoly; IBM was a monopoly, then what happened?
18/12/2018 07:34
10154899906070843 Ricky,

Why don't you do some self study instead.
You said you bought scientex at 2.47 in September of 2012 and held it until today. Good for you. Did you buy more?
You said in April 2014 that it was fairly valued( with that growth and retirement pattern?) Did you have the conviction to buy more?
In 2015 you said it was overvalued, but you wished it went down so you can buy more. I would assume you didn't, because if you were you would be helping the scientex forum teach investors instead of trolling this one.
So I'm pretty sure you didn't buy any in 2016,2017 nor in 2018

Why don't you do your DCF, and look back at your track record of your roc, fcf, etc and tell me what you thought back in 2014 on the possibility of scientex hitting 4billion market cap. You definitely didn't think it was good enough for you to invest in it.

Let me tell you a bit about ratios. Roc, or my understanding of it is return of investment capital is based on your operating profit divided by your total assets minutes current liabilities. All of which can be restated or fudged. Land values can go up, operating profit has to take into account opex ( which you should be asking if it is abnormal), and in a comnodities traditional mode of business, it takes time for manufacturing to pick up.

Future cash flows based on DCF is also just as hard, because which discounts will you apply? I can use any number of figures to basically come up with anything I want? If based on dividends, definitely ql is a crap company. If I use weighted average cost of capital? Slightly better. Cost of debt? Growth rate? Discount rate? All of these are just ratios, garbage in garbage out. It's like reading horoscopes, you can get multiple results based on which bias you are working on.

Let me show you a better way. Yes you can mix those figures in to give you an idea of how a company can perform, but you need to temper it with business foundations. Here's what I did, when I went to the AGM 4 or 5 years ago, I asked the brother chia song kun, during the big bird flu scare, how many chickens did they need to cull, and how much of a percentage it was compared to the market average. His answer in the AGM regarding the culling and their care to biological health really impressed me( founder has a PhD) and I've been buying ever since.

You should read Peter Lynch sometime. His scuttlebutt method works so well with me for why I chose public bank ( all the major Chinese companies bank with them ), yinson( very well managed fpso business and dying bumi o&g competitors, and if course top glove (even nhs buy from them)

Have fun playing sandcastles and never needing to make big decisions in life.

But seriously. Take a risk. Attend AGM. Fork out the same money to buy trade reports, journals and read the financial statements.

I wish you all the best in the future Ricky. Talk less sand listen more.
18/12/2018 08:54
Avangelice 843 are you planning to top up into QL? it has dropped significantly
18/12/2018 09:18
godhand family mart is a contemporary element to drive growth. it expand fast when its trending. it close fast when its outdated. its just a temporary strategy to drive growth.
The core business is superb.i wouldnt place so much importance on family mart. im more interested to know how they can moat widening their core business what extra value they can stack on their core business.
18/12/2018 09:39
godhand actually ricky is asking a very simple question. no need to put annual report etc into your defence.

QL is a superb company at very very expensive price. overvalue or not it depends on perception. value is a perception.
18/12/2018 09:50
10154899906070843 Hi avangelice, it has only dropped by about 10% from last peak I think. I usually don't do impulse buy. My method of investing is usually every quarter, once the quarterly report comes out, if the business model doesn't change drastically (it hasn't), I continue buying. Sometimes I pay more, sometimes I pay less. But I've been buying every quarter for the last 8 years as far as I can remember.

Godhand: it's not a simple question, that's the point. Your say it's a superb company, that I agree with. You say it's expensive, I say it's fair. And by that metric you can argue until the cows come home because everybody has a view on the intrinsic value.

And it's only after Ricky has started deriding and trolling the other investors in this page that I started commenting and trolling him back. You can look at his past comments on his profile page. He is a troll through and through. He doesn't want to listen to your answers, he just wants to argue.
18/12/2018 09:59
godhand im not being biased but i can see ricky is a very experienced person. lets just learn from each other. no loss
18/12/2018 10:04
Ricky Yeo Uncle, you come out to claim my hypothesis is incorrect, yet you can't offer any credible evidence to justify 10 bil valuation besides monopoly and investments they're making.

I never said anything about DCF. And of course doing DCF is tricky, and by all mean come up with a figure you want to justify 10 bil, because you haven't come up with any so far since the start of this discussion. And of course there will be multiple results. Investing is dealing with uncertainty and degree of confidence, there is nothing wrong to say a stock is worth between 1-2 bil and state the probability of that happening.

Yes I have read Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street. Scuttlebutt is great. But if you can't somehow weight the evidence you get from the scuttlebutt properly, that is as good as reading horoscope, agree? How does scuttlebutt justify 10 bil? Why not 1 bil or 100 bil? You still need to quantify it. If you can't 'quantify' your scuttlebutt evidence, there isn't much difference as garbage in garbage out too.

You have to agree it is not what you do, but the quality of thinking that matters. If attending AGM directly lead to great return, then that is more powerful than horoscope. Scuttlebutt has its place, for Phil Fisher and Peter Lynch, but it is far from a pre-requisite to make good investment, definitely not for Walter Schloss.

By the way, land value don't fudge ROC. ROC is measured at historical cost, how much the land is worth in the market now doesn't affect ROC.
18/12/2018 10:05
rajachulan 基本面,政策面,前景,预测全部放一边吧! 十一月三十号出现了爆量收红了散户们还不先走一趟?

董事们为了什么原因抛售我们不知道, 就是不知道才要留意趋势,势头不对就先跑一趟在旁边观望。

春江水暖量先知,股价会骗人,成交量是不会说谎的!

十日线和十周线都翻下了。。。

卖出股票的信号
1)个股出现天量之后,下面10个交易日都没有更大的量来越过。
2)单日爆出近期大量,当天股价收在最低点或是留下1根长上影线。
3)周量爆出波段以来天量,股价却连着2天明显走弱。
4)股价一周以来呈现剧烈震荡,但最后是以最低价作收。

大家留意保重
18/12/2018 10:40
10154899906070843 Ricky, I thought you were talking about future return of capital? If they bought 1000 acres of land in tawau 20 years ago and have not restated the values to current valuations, wouldn't you have an abnormal capital gains when it is restated to the value of the other averages value of average owned by ioi and hap Seng, and sold 10 years later. That's how I do deep value asset analysis, and that is how I added shares of QL.

As for justification, I could give you exact figures, but I prefer for you to come to the same line of thought, instead of asking uncle Google to just give you things as if you deserve them.
My hypothesis of current value 10 billion+.
1. Plantation asset valued below market(I used valuation reports from trade journals I bought of Sabah and Indonesia po industry and compared to comps from other plantations.) Yes it's very undervalued. By a few hundred million. It will correct sooner or later.
2. FM ctos reports of maxincome sdn bhd( assets and capital costs spent show new stores construction below 180k per unit, and daily turnover hitting 9k average in Klang valley), p/l shows breakeven, showing future growth not requiring outside capital. On track for 300 stores target in 5 years and daily sales with inflation at 10.5k imho
3. Myr exchange rate on track for 4.2 in the near /mid future, making me sad. But good for export gains. You can check quarterly report on the forex gain alone.
4. Looking at projects, projections and market growth, we are looking at 300-500 million of revenue growth average increase every year conservatively. Meaning they will be projecting conservative revenue of at least 6 billion yearly in 5 years.
5. However the capital investments to grow the business is massive, around 338 million. They are currently now after completing all of this years construction at 68% capacity. Meaning sooner or later, the growth will slow and they no longer need to build that many new plants, only refurbish or repair existing upstream and downstream activities. So if I fudge and bring down their operating capex flows, to 50% that is still around 150 million per year. Or more demand could come meaning even better prospects. And yes I know everything about depreciation and amortisation, but to be honest those are just estimates given by accountants with no basis on how well the equipments assets are maintained and serviced. And I can tell you management for ql is bar none in this regard. However imagine if ql instead of employing capital to more growth declared it as operating income. That would be at least 400 million in net profit instead. But why pay all that tax? I have no qualms with them spending ferociously on growth.

6.They are spewing almost 300 million of cash flows every year, in 2014 their plant activities was around 180m and revenue was around 2.6b. in 2017 their plant activities was around 338m and revenue was around 3.6b. their debt gearing ratio is outstanding for such a fast growing operation( which is another value why we justify 10b valuation) because it is a snowball rolling with its own strength now. Show me another business with similar metrics growing with debt that low in bursa. And please don't quote me aeon credit, because the main retail is complete trash. If the retail went bankrupt aeon credit would disappear tomorrow.

These are hints. You should look for the details yourself Ricky.
18/12/2018 11:36
Choivo Capital 10154899906070843,

Uncle. You are intelligent. But a fool and completely blind to many things at the same time. However, you do get the big picture right, mostly.

You need to consider learning more. Let me just put it this way.

A great business at a high enough price, can turn into a bad investment. A bad business at a low enough price, can turn into a good investment.

If this does not make sense to you, well, at least you bought those companies at very low prices. Just don't go on margin and you should be able to live out the rest of your days in comfort, despite any subsequent foolishness.

Read ricky again. He is not perfect, but he is humble and not stupid.
18/12/2018 17:35
Up_down QL has been experienced high growth period few years ago. PAT seems stagnant for the past 3 financial years. By looking at the PAT trend, QL may not able to enjoy exceptional profit growth in near future.

Cash call is going to be real soon as its gearing level keeps moving upward. QL did make a right issues when the gearing reached between 44% to 48%.

Right Issues:
FY 2014 - 300m
FY 2011 - 116.6m

PER: 48x
Dividend yield : 0.73%
Gearing: 40%
Dividend paid: 401m ( FY 2011 to FY 2018 )

PAT
FY 2019 - 105m ( 6 months)
FY 2018 - 216m
FY 2017 - 207m
FY 2016 - 202m
FY 2015 - 196m
FY 2014 - 167m
FY 2013 - 138m
FY 2012 - 139m
FY 2011 - 133m

Turnover
FY 2019 - 1,736m ( 6 months )
FY 2018 - 3,264m
FY 2017 - 3,012m
FY 2016 - 2,852m
FY 2015 - 2,708m
FY 2014 - 2,457m
FY 2013 - 2,147m
FY 2012 - 1,947m
FY 2011 - 1,777m
18/12/2018 19:48
10154899906070843 Oh good good, another amateur fund manager. And worse, a kyy follower to the bone. I do consider learning, but definitely not from you. And a fool and completely blind to boot!

Incredible. Please don't talk to me about margin, when you pulled your friends and family into those bad businesses like liihen, Latitude tree and rce capital in 2017( buying high and selling low). Oh yes I've read your so called memo, when you took your fund into Maybank margin to take advantage and buy even more Latitude tree, liihen and rce capital. Wonderful! Any margin call yet?

A bad business is a bad business no matter how cheap it is. You will learn that too late, because the market is never stupid. Invest in a company that gives free shares options to it's staff at cheap rates? That's a bad business that gives great profits, but hides dilution and poor management. The only thing they do is be ah long, but never making money on asset management, not having a monopoly or market leadership, all you have is an investment in a "value" trap that you probably don't even realize. If you had invested in QL instead of rce capital since 2017, you would have doubled your money for your investors ( even with this huge drop this month), and made good money for your family.

Liihen and Latitude? Please, don't make me laugh. You bought Latitude at it's height, when signs were very clear that their business impact had changed drastically ( workers salary had increased tremendously), but you still looked at cash and their "intrinsic value", until their revenue prospects changed and the market turned on you.

With your investing skills, I sincerely hope you don't use margin it drag your family members into your fund. It's horrible when you are the fool and completely blind to many things at the same time.

FYI, I only used margin once in 2011 after my shares had doubled in value, and only buy in every quarter after the quarterly financial results come out.

And actually, I do appreciate Ricky, he is definitely not stupid and humble. I was only angry with him for his attitude to the other investors on the ql page, and I do regret that.

You on the other hand, are neither humble, not smart, and definitely not perfect.

And calling me a fool and blind in one sentence? Talk to me again in 5 years after tripling your investment in Latitude, liihen, and rce. Do you have that conviction? I've been adding to my position in ql for the last 9 years. I may not know much, but I definitely know my stock.

Let's see which stock performs better in 5 years, the superb business with pe50?, Or the bad business with pe5.
18/12/2018 19:50
striker888 Went to 7/11 for top up, I was the only customer. Past by FM, the line of people waiting to pay. Really shove your numbers up your are.
19/12/2018 00:31


 

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