Highlights
KLSE: PCHEM (5183)       PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD MAIN : Industrial Products
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
6.64   0.00 (0.00%)  0.00 - 0.00  0
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  8 people like this.
 
Philip (Can I advise you?) Netx not in ncfp1 fiberisation application licensee list sorry. So you are wasting my time with your incessant promotion.

On theb other hand higher feedstock prices leads to higher product seeking prices meaning increased revenue and earnings. Go see past results and tell me I am wrong.

More importantly PIC softstart starting this year q1. If all goes well and no production issues, full ramp up by end of the year.

Increase 3.3 mpta, and new products from da Vinci acquisition will show multi year increase in profits and revenue in the years to come.

Too bad Calvin always stays too long and leaves just when stocks are reaping the rewards from their investments.

He left carimin long before it went limit up. He says so himself.

He was embarrassed by investors in jayatiasa for claiming results which he did not even take advantage of:

/12/2019 9:04 AM

Tom I remember few weeks ago calvintanend said sell into strength, now he says 1.00 Chun Chun....lol what a nasty liar

If he knows 1.00 Chun Chun, then why he ask ppl "sell into strength"(his so called sell into strength)

See the logic? Lol

===
Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 11, 2019 1:42 PM | Report Abuse

Excellent rise

Jaya tiasa or Giant Treasure

Clap
Clap
Clap

Time to sell into strength and switch to Nfcp bull run stocks like Netx, Opcom, Redtone and sacofa(cmsb)
27/12/2019 10:25 AM

calvintaneng Oh yes I made a wrong sell call on jtiasa

Good for you guys still holding

So embarrassing always change story especially when his lies get caught.

If he stays put longer instead of promoting this and that every day he might actually make more money.

As to his real returns? You know I know la.
06/01/2020 7:26 PM
calvintaneng Nothing wrong as Calvin bought Netx at 1 sen

Now Netx at 2 sen already up 100% and still moving up
06/01/2020 7:35 PM
jjohnchew Calv.. why tell lie abt yr cruise ship tour n use it to promote netx..saying malaysia 2G ...Singapore 7G lah...
U posted cruise ship is near koh samui...tv8 news said a cruise ship is collided near koh samui..a US tourist is interviewed..no casualties...
When ask calv...is it collided..he said no collision...then he said is the one in phuket...just tell lie to blow to promote ...
06/01/2020 8:15 PM
calvintaneng Jjohnchew is another frivolous liar and time waster. Got caught in stupid Zelan the insolvent stock
06/01/2020 9:58 PM
jjohnchew Ho ho calv.... as said u r welcome to post opposite views in Zelan...it is so easy to defend if it is true facts comments... not like u so scare of opposite facts views..
07/01/2020 12:29 AM
TONY_WONG QR damn lousy why buy wrong ctr? 6.5 only consider.
10/01/2020 3:14 AM
TONY_WONG EPS 7 senX4=28 sen. Why pay PE 26?
10/01/2020 3:16 AM
sell Petronas need $ so must sell PChem.
10/01/2020 11:43 AM
Cindy87 To sifu here, property bought at desaru due to rapid development still can keep?
11/01/2020 6:53 PM
Joon Chan Perspective..
https://imgur.com/gallery/KJdseMZ
14/01/2020 3:34 AM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Waiting for below 7.00 for discount day sales again.
14/01/2020 7:52 AM
Joon Chan I'd OD my home to buy more
14/01/2020 7:53 AM
Joon Chan hor hor.. who is buying everyone out at 7.06 ahhh
why yall keep selling so cheap!
15/01/2020 3:07 PM
Joon Chan wish got like a chat function on market depth.
can say, oi! dumbo, got more than 40k lots in Q, now alone u can see 5k to 1k lots! why u trigger happy sell so cheap for what
15/01/2020 3:10 PM
RainT wah downtrend oh
15/01/2020 3:43 PM
Joon Chan more perspective...

https://imgur.com/gallery/CNNGDZ2
15/01/2020 5:41 PM
pohmun pls give constructive view and dont argue here. dont waste everyone time. we are more interested in share price. not your great grand story.
16/01/2020 2:48 PM
Aristocats Wah susah. I beli banyak, this national asset stock goes down. Sad
17/01/2020 11:37 AM
RainT will go down more
20/01/2020 10:20 AM
RainT i am waiting the RAPID to show in the financial results

when when
20/01/2020 10:21 AM
RainT will PCHEM incur high depreciation in start of RAPID?

Will there be high one off expenses due to RAPID?

In the 1st few quarters of RAPID come to full operations
20/01/2020 10:24 AM
monetary triper cheese burger. buy back!
21/01/2020 12:33 PM
Titan China banning single-use plastic......guess this will somehow affect a part of PCHEM revenue.
22/01/2020 11:11 AM
RainT from down then up a little

now want to go back down again

haiz
22/01/2020 5:09 PM
enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Isn't it a good thing to be able to acquire extra PCHEM at low prices for the long term?

But I do think in near term, things aren't looking that good until & unless next QR posts a better performance, indicating Pengerang's positive effect taking place.

I suppose traders could take this opportunity as well to hit and run, assuming PCHEM returns to RM7.00+ soon.
22/01/2020 5:27 PM
Choivo Capital Until today, i still don't know why i bought a small position in PCHEM.

Its not horrible, but there is so many better ones.
23/01/2020 1:20 AM
Choivo Capital Joon Chan,

What is your understanding of the company?
23/01/2020 1:21 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) It is a far better investment than buying into lctitan at these prices.
24/01/2020 4:21 PM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Discount day sales again.
24/01/2020 5:23 PM
Joon Chan Of course there are better.
Risk is opportunity cost to me.
But where would you park 5m or more?
25/01/2020 12:51 AM
Joon Chan oh, happy new year to all.
very rocky start with viruses all around, let's hope it all goes away soon and fortune for all following next
25/01/2020 12:55 AM
RainT This need collect when dip and hold it for few years

Dip then collect again
28/01/2020 10:46 AM
Choivo Capital I digress.

Its somewhat attractive, but i'm not sure if its far better.

===
Philip (Can I advise you?) It is a far better investment than buying into lctitan at these prices.
24/01/2020 4:21 PM
28/01/2020 11:23 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Volatility is our friend. When stock prices go down without warning, especially on rock solid wealth generating companies that are triple A rated by banks ( Moody's rate Petronas as a safer investment than Malaysian government), and there is no clear reason for business downturn other than short term scares from China virus, this is a sure sign of a discount opportunity.

Like how munger likes to put it, look to the business first before determining the price. And when you look at the business try to understand the long term prospects of the company.

Once earnings normalize, we are looking at a company with:

20 billion in assets,
12 billion in cash.
And 2 billion in debts.

Historically it has been doing 4 billion in earnings, with the current drop-down recently. If you believe this will continue to stabilise and earn 4 billion a year , with 20+% profit margins,

You are paying 43 billion ( minus 10 billion in cash) for a company that generates 4 billion in earnings yearly, which I think is a great deal.

As it looks likely that you will receive 25 cents this year and using that as a benchmark, getting a 3.77% dividend with a likelihood of a company growing the next few years will be a wonderful investment.

I have increased my exposure at these wonderful prices which is a multi year low. Happy to invest further.
28/01/2020 12:45 PM
Sslee Hahahaha
Me too.
28/01/2020 12:48 PM
calvintaneng NO SSLEE

LONDON BISCUIT ALSO GAVE DIVIDENDS IN EARLY DAYS

BUT PRICE CANNOT SUSTAIN IS NO GOOD BUSINESS

TRADE WAR WILL SAP DEMAND FOR PETRO CHEMICALS

BETTER SELL PETCHEM & BUY NFCP FIBERISATION STOCKS NOW
28/01/2020 12:50 PM
calvintaneng Falling value and output raise questions about S'pore chemicals hub

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/special-feature-jurong-island/falling-value-and-output-raise-questions-about
28/01/2020 12:54 PM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Calvintaneng London Biscuit do not have FCF. Pchem will be must better than FD.
28/01/2020 12:59 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) This is exactly the point. If you were investing in the amounts of money like choivo does, any capital loss he makes is easily recoverable by putting in extra overtime in his job.

For me investing large capital is an added pressure in that the investment itself has to be barred on the a safety of capital point of view, and since I am no longer tied to using profits to live on a daily basis, I am able to take a longer view on things and what to buy.

In these cases, buying and keeping for a longer period of time becomes more rewarding.

I am reminded of my long term investment in topglove, I had put in on a backend due to my annoyance at the company from its recent acquisition without full due diligence, and had expected it to take a few more years to recover its earnings.

Suddenly due to a virus, everyone is buying any available stock in topglove, just like how Mr market would act. I expect even more insanity when topglove shows worthwhile results and the price excludes further.

And even QL is impressive after all the comments on pe50 etc etc, the earnings keep growing, the confidence keep coming up, and say 6.7 last year today it is up to 8.17 with dividends growing while all the naysayers keep standing at the bylines.

All I can say is, PCHEM is far safer than many companies like lctitan. You don't have to worry about any cash calls or share dilution or private placements. You don't have to worry about any dividend reduction as their payout is still 50% of earnings. And it has 12 billion of cash in the bank to ride out any crises.

For those who don't buy, then I hope you spend the next 5 years following this company closely and looking at the long term results.

For those that buy, I hope you have the patience I had when I first bought my ten baggere in ql and topglove, which I am still holding until today.

For those that are considering selling, I hope you can answer the million dollar question, sell and buy what? Which is the better investment?

As Jonathan 5000 investment thesis into rcecap historical over 5 years, or timecom, or aeon credit, e investments you don't make matter as much as the investments you made in life.

Luckily I have had a long time to buy and look at the market too see when you have a discount day, and when you have a structural failure of the business.
>>>>>>>

Joon Chan Of course there are better.
Risk is opportunity cost to me.
But where would you park 5m or more?
25/01/2020 12:51 AM
28/01/2020 1:00 PM
Icon8888 Surprised it drop so much due to virus

Why ?
28/01/2020 1:02 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) I would say during good times, people become over optimistic on a business future, during bad times people become negative on a company future.

I'm more surprised and scared that my topglove jumped so much higher than I believed it would.

People overreact to many things, but this year its more than normal share.

War in middle East. Coronavirus. Stock market overheating.

I start to believe more and more than investing is more about emotions than analysis.
It becomes really hard to keep a level head of everyone around is running around screaming the sky is falling.

But I just keep asking myself, what is PCHEM long term prospects? Am I buying it below the intrinsic value and the earnings generated for the business?

So I still come to the opinion that Pchem is wonderful company selling at a wonderful price now.
28/01/2020 6:18 PM
Choivo Capital I don't disagree that much on the business to be honest.

However, when LCTITAN is half the valuation of PCHEM, you do need to think a bit more.

Having said that, my PCHEM position size is actually a little bigger than my LCTITAN one, despite both being relatively small.



PS.
Lets swap financial positions then. =]

I like how someone with RM50m in the stocks, with little leverage is talking as if he's living on knife's edge. One month FD interest on that is enough to put you very comfortably in the T20 household income category. You'd probably need a bit more for travelling.

Every sen of capital loss i incur, takes me further from my "number", which will enable me to never need to work for money again.

Not swapping our ages though.

=====
Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Jan 28, 2020 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

This is exactly the point. If you were investing in the amounts of money like choivo does, any capital loss he makes is easily recoverable by putting in extra overtime in his job.

For me investing large capital is an added pressure in that the investment itself has to be barred on the a safety of capital point of view, and since I am no longer tied to using profits to live on a daily basis, I am able to take a longer view on things and what to buy.
28/01/2020 6:35 PM
Joon Chan All my indicators bleeped sell, at every data interval.

I hesitated - but in this panic, it makes sense to sell and buy back the equivalent shares in t+2 days time for a contra-gain in cash or shares.

The probability of a recovery within 2 days is low.

I'm fundamentally long - so isn't the goal to increase/maintain the position in terms of shares?
28/01/2020 8:13 PM
Icon8888 Thought you are a long term investor ?
28/01/2020 8:22 PM
Joon Chan Exactly. So why shouldn't profit from a short term shock?
Long/Short, same thing - a bet in direction but in different timeframs.
Long over years, short over 2 days.
28/01/2020 8:53 PM
28/01/2020 9:53 PM
Joon Chan @Icon8888
If you are holding unencumbered 1000 shares.

You can sell 1000 lots 6.75 in in the morning when it just started selling down, and buy 1000 lots again in the evening at 6.64.

The difference of 11 cents per share will be your gain in cash, RM11k in cash, or buy 1.6 more lots.
28/01/2020 10:24 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Joon Chan, my advise is to not look at short term stick volatility as there is no way you can predict how the share price will work out in the short term. Trying to time the market will always be an exercise in futility. When I was young in the 80s I tried to time the market, it didn't work. I then tried to time the market in the 90s, it also ask didn't work. You may be too young to remember renong, aokam and alta vista, but my prognosis is always hindsight is perfect. But in reality, if you have been losing big money in a stock, it becomes harder to buy back when you sell it, or even to just buy more as it goes down. Trying to trade dips is just something all the sifus like to teach in their classes, but rarely do they have a solid long term portfolio which they are willing to show you.
28/01/2020 11:17 PM
Icon8888 the petrochemical industry in my opinion is a bit similar to steel industry nowadays

It is hugely influenced by supply from overseas (especially new plants capacity), that diminishes it earning visibility

Very difficult to predict prospects both short and Long term
29/01/2020 6:38 AM
Icon8888 In other words lack of moat
29/01/2020 6:57 AM


 

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