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  windcloud Commentary on Prospects The Company is "CONFIDENT" that the financial result of the Group for the remainder of financial year 2017 to be favourable despite challenging economic environment. So forthcoming results should be good as well ........ besides, feed cost will be lower as MYR strengthen and broiler and egg prices will be increased when festival season comes. So, the only way is up. 01/12/2017 3:17 PM windcloud Sebastian, you are right ....... very bad market sentiment ........... need to put into cold storage ........ 04/12/2017 11:19 AM keong90 perhaps this counter is going to do better with better myr rate although its a slow counter 07/12/2017 10:28 PM Leonardo12 Wealthwizard, pwf has continuously delivered good results for the past 2 quarters. Why the price does not reflect it? 10/12/2017 7:25 PM Jona0724 slow counter weakness like PWF. big shark just use 200k can stop the price moving up altough under value and collect as much as cheap tickets. 13/12/2017 4:22 PM Jona0724 last 4 QR result: 16Q4:EPS1.16, 17Q1:3.08, 17Q2:3.68, 17Q3:3.71. for this 17Q4 assume get 3.5. 2017 EPS = 13.97. current price 1.02 P/E only 7.3. really cheapest poultry counter 14/12/2017 3:52 PM Jona0724 MY break USD 4, egg price stable, main share holder and company keep buy back share, dividend to be given, market bullish. so many good news happen in Jan. share price move to high price soon. 05/01/2018 10:07 PM Fear Trend PWF Stock term - mid term (6 months to 1 year) *Pwf summary business* Pwf is an integrated poultry business which include boiler breeding farming, layer farming and feed manufacturing *Fundamental and business wise* 1) current pe is trading at 9 compare to their peers cab and ql trading at 10/37 respectively 2) nta of 1.49, which is trading at 47.5% discount from it's current share price 3) profit margin of 6/7%. By number itself, it may be low. But compare to their peers dbe, ql, cab, they are also trading around that number except dbe is at lower edge. 4) current ratio of less than 1. Not too favourable I would say. But they are still generating huge operating cash flow (in fact more than their earnings 29 million cash from operation compare to 16 million of profit. Mainly is good inventory and debtors management) 4. Comment on debt. Debts of 153 million is high but the mounting debt is due to the expansion plan of rm 100 million to convert the open house system into in-house system. Personally, ql have been so successful is due to converting their open house to in house. Open house system is vulnerable to weather and virus. In house system advantage is to mitigate any potential virus like Newcastle, etc and to avoid any weather to interrupt their business. With in house system, they are able to control the ventilation system (as for birth growth they will need minimum wind within it). This productivity will eventually reduce their feed conversion ratio. Recently they have added new boiler farms in perak as well. 5. Profit - if we were to look at their profit since 2013, there is a tremendous growth of cagr around 21.2% for past 4 years. If include the 5th years it will be cagr of 124.34% 6. Revenue - latest quarter of 93 million which is highest revenue throughout their history..:see_no_evil: 7. Dividend yield of 3%. Average. Dividend payout ratio of around 70 to 80% last three years. Based on their payout and 2016 given special dividend, if their profit were to increase this year, we may see more payout to shareholders. Reason that it may be good for the 1st half of 2018. 1) ringgit has been appreciating compare to USD. Their raw materials are all imported cost which will be beneficial to them. 2) price of eggs are increasing for all grades. Check out jabatan perkhidmatan veterinar for the latest price. 3) commodity price especially for soy bean, feed and corn. Which all three has been going down as well. Can Google for the chart and price. Technical chart wise - support of rm1/0.98. if break this week may see it going lower. They have a strong resistance at 1.09. if break it we may see it hitting the next resistance of 1.15. good thing is there is no inverse hammer candlestick within the chart which we can roughly say not many contra players in it to buy low and sell high on the same day itself. - short term ma 14 had already cross 25 but still struggling to cross ma 50. Risk 1. Monitor the myr and usd. As long as USD and myr is trading at 3.8 to 4.10, my opinion is it wont be significant impact. 2. Significant impact will be rise of their commodity prices as well as the drop in the eggs price. Monitor it if there is any significant drop. Opinion - please do own research before buying. If you are buying, hold it for mid term and let it bear fruit if the assumptions are correct. This is not a speculative counter. 21/01/2018 7:37 PM Jarklp Historically Q3 is the best quarter. I don't expect too much in Q4. Hopefully stronger RM further reduces their cost of raw material use in the manufacturing of feed as mentioned in Q3 25/01/2018 12:52 AM Booyeah greed when people fear.. fear when people greed. this is one good company to hold. 11/02/2018 12:31 AM Jarklp I am hoping that they can do 3.3 cents in the 4Q, about 300% higher than the same period last year 26/02/2018 3:54 PM Jarklp jia lat leow.. "comparatively higher cost of raw material" for a stronger RM.. wtf.. .kena conned. 28/02/2018 11:20 PM Jarklp the only plus point is that compared to Q3, the revenue only dropped 1.6% when broiler's price dropped 10% in Q4. 28/02/2018 11:53 PM  IamGoogle I kept reading the report & wonder why NP to shareholders = 167k, but EPS is 0.81. Then only realised that Profit attributable to Shareholders should be 1.360mil, instead of 167k as stated in the below link: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/7134.jsp Report: https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/7134_PWF/qr/2017-12-31/7134_PWF_QR_2017-12-31_PWF%20Quarterly%20Report%2031%20December%202017_1312010924.pdf 01/03/2018 10:39 AM IamGoogle By comparison: Revenue: 4Q2017 = 91.816mil 4Q2016 = 77.594mil Net Profit to Company: 4Q2017 = 1.36mil 4Q2016 = 1.828mil 01/03/2018 10:41 AM Booyeah last quarter was due to impairment.. but year to year is still profitable. theanagement did comment that they will achieve better result in 2018. 03/03/2018 6:44 PM Jarklp @booyeah, can you share where in the 4Q results shows the impairment ? Thanks. 03/03/2018 10:46 PM Booyeah they park it under operating expenses. that's why u notice every 4th quarter the expenses are higher. this one is not audited.. wait for the audited one to come out then we can see clearer picture. alot of company 4th quarter result is bad because they will need to do alot of impairement for fourth quarter. I used to be an auditor and normally this are the cases. 04/03/2018 10:08 AM Jarklp Thanks. I thought the Q4 is bad because of lower margin as a result of lower selling price and higher raw material costs. Provision for receivable /write off was reported zero in the page 9 of Q4 report. Can anyhow report ? Look forward to seeing the audited report. 04/03/2018 2:58 PM Booyeah let's wait for audited report then we can have a better picture.. I am holding tight for this.. they may have impacted due to lagging effect of stronger ringgit. if you were to read their management result we can further understand that theamagement is positive in their 2018 prospect with stronger ringgit. 05/03/2018 10:44 PM Booyeah Few good counters that are consider good fundamental and growth/dividend watchlist. Can collect if there is a correction 1. Ecs - dividend yield still stands at 5% at current price. With iot and strenthening of ringgit(to monitor) will benefit them. Recently venture into thunderbolt gaming notebook to capture egames market. Possible 15-20% upside if conservative pe of 10 is captured. 2. Bonia (hot)- consumer stock may make a come back after the abolishment of gst as well as if ringgit were to strengthen or hover around 3.8-4.0. at current price of 40 cents , there are limited downside. Trading at 30% below it's nta as well. 3. Ntpm (hot) - at current price their dividend seats at 3%. What's interesting is the recent increase in their sales to all time high of 181 million per quarter. They are having high margin due to huge capex expansion into vietnam production. the management mentioned in the 2017 annual report that the current utilisation capacity is at 80%. With 80% they manage to hit historical high revenue. Additional two tissue machine paper has been added into production in Vietnam which is expected to commence operation in april 2018. Current ratio of above 1 as well.. no short term debt obligations. Seems positive moving forward. Potential upside of 20/30% of pe 10 is used with margin of 4/5%. Downside risk is increase in pulp price. 4. Yocb (neutral) - safe bet but limited growth. Providing a 4% dividend at current price. Pe of 7 and recent increase in sales due to consignment sales. Net cash company with nta of 1.26. nothing to loss. Safe bet company. 5. Zhulian (neutral) - net cash and safe bet company with dividend of 4.1% at current price. Strongly net cash company with cash of 140 million compare to total debt of 39 million. Net cash per share is 21 cents. No harm keeping one of this in our portfolio to withstand any downturn. With the abolishment of gst, it may benefit this stock as well to increase the consumer demand. Upside possibly less (10%) due to volatile sales and earnings. Strenthening of ringgit may hurt their margin due to 70% of sales from export. What is great about this company is good management. Increasing dividend payout when making money, holding high cash pile, positive operating cash flow despite expansion, good inventory level as well as maintaining above 20% profit margin. 6. Bat (neutral) - still paying 6/7% dividend at current price. Downside risk is more smokers buying illegal cigarate. The management did mention that they are unhappy with what the market is valuing their share price given their past performance. With the abolishment of gst, this may help to boost their sales and margin as well. Can catch it if it drops (19/20). Upside > downside risk. Only buy if upside is greater than downside. Don't buy all time high at current market. 7. Pwf (neutral) - trading way below nta of 1.76. net cash company. With strenthening of ringgit it will benefit them. Recent sales manage to maintain at 91 million per quarter. Scenario analysis performed if myr and USD maintain at 3.8/3.9, price of egg maintain and ra material such as corn, feed and wheat were to maintain, potential upside of 20/30% at current price of 86 cents. Downside is increase in their main raw material price. There are still quite a number of good fundamental company to monitor when price deep. Go ahead and monitor and take this opportunity. Don't chase high but buy consolidation stock or stock that took a correction that hit historical low. To limit the downside risk. 19/05/2018 2:02 AM Booyeah it's earning is normal.. only 4th quarters alot of impairement and staff expenses kicks in.. so many companies had a drop in sales and revenue.. they manage to keep it.. 01/06/2018 8:41 AM Jarklp agreed that 4Q is typically a weak quarter, but 4Q17 was rather disappointing in view of weaker USD, the expected savings from raw material did not happen. 01/06/2018 10:15 AM Jarklp was watching the price movement of the warrant on Friday, liquidity was low, someone just snapped it up in a few occasions with high spread. .. why so impatient? 18/08/2018 6:18 PM  Stock Kingdom At the same time, Lay Hong went down non-stop BUT this one goes up, emm..... interesting to study 23/08/2018 11:07 PM Jarklp Lousy quarter... what is "adjustment for non-cash item" in the CF statement ? Increase RM4m as compared to same period last year 31/08/2018 12:13 AM  |
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