Highlights
KLSE: ARMADA (5210)       BUMI ARMADA BHD MAIN : Energy
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
0.245   -0.005 (2.00%)  0.245 - 0.25  3,998,500
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Ann. Date Date Type Old New Registrar Tel. Fax Email View
16-Oct-2019 16-Oct-2019 REGISTRAR LEVEL 6, SYMPHONY HOUSE PUSAT DAGANGAN DANA 1 JALAN PJU 1A/46 47301 PETALING JAYA SELANGOR MALAYSIA 11TH FLOOR, MENARA SYMPHONY NO. 5, JALAN SEMANGAT (JALAN PROFESSOR KHOO KAY KIM) SEKSYEN 13 46200 PETALING JAYA SELANGOR MALAYSIA BOARDROOM SHARE REGISTRARS SDN BHD 03 -78904700 03 -78904670 View Detail
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  33 people like this.
 
strattegist uuk uuk
12/10/2020 11:47 AM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. lembik lembik pasal oil price lembik again. Bulan depan QR keluar. satu kali kasi keras keras punya. boleh kah.
12/10/2020 1:22 PM
strattegist aiyoooooooo
12/10/2020 1:36 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. tenguk harga minyak brent. April to Jun 19.33 to 43.94. Q2 net profit 120mil. Jul to Sept 39.31 to 46.53. Q3 profit should be better than Q2 right. By normal thinking lah. why after Q2 result can up to above 30sen. After Q3 result out should be above 30 right. Why still have seller at 25sen? No common sense kah?
12/10/2020 2:02 PM
strattegist kena kasik urut niiii... aiyoyo
12/10/2020 2:53 PM
SmallFishyy QR haven't out yet. Patience..
12/10/2020 3:37 PM
i3lurker or it might drop below 20 sen
12/10/2020 4:44 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. closed red. ini supertanker pakai steam kah. apa sal tak steam one.
12/10/2020 5:28 PM
strattegist aiyooooo... bocor lorrrr
12/10/2020 5:57 PM
Mabel Perhaps this Supertanker needs BioFuel from our Palm Oil Plantations....

Meow
12/10/2020 9:51 PM
lauys96 alamak tomoro drop again
12/10/2020 10:05 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. today can green?
13/10/2020 8:34 AM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. closed white. unchanged.
13/10/2020 9:03 PM
CHLEONG888 only will perform after availability of vaccines
14/10/2020 7:37 AM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. today can green?
14/10/2020 8:45 AM
strattegist uuk uuk
14/10/2020 9:28 AM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. steady. maintain. white/green. white/green. white/green
14/10/2020 10:20 AM
strattegist sembelit niii... uuk uuk
14/10/2020 10:50 AM
strattegist haiyaaaaaaa
14/10/2020 1:25 PM
moneycome123456 HL give target price 0.60, why price no up?
14/10/2020 7:22 PM
strattegist aiyoooooo... no need 0.60 laaa... 0.30 also seems very far oredy...

aiyoyo
14/10/2020 8:55 PM
Yu_and_Mee stupid TP of 0.60, i think 0.06 is more reasonable
14/10/2020 9:07 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. Oil price not break out above 44. OnG tidur lagi.
14/10/2020 9:32 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. closed white. unchanged.
14/10/2020 9:32 PM
JoshuaMS7 oil price up for 2 days about 4% to 43 usd due to US inventory dropping fast!! Today might got show!!
15/10/2020 8:41 AM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. today can green? Brent price above 43 again. Can break out or not? 3rd attempt to break 44.
15/10/2020 8:42 AM
JoshuaMS7 yaya let see tonight EIA inventory report again!! Fundamentally must drop continue only can bring oil price breakeven!!
15/10/2020 9:02 AM
Jojobaa Armada's days of impairments are over, the 300 mil on the OMS is the last one.

With Armada D1 being extended, the next expiry of charter from firmed period is only coming in 2024. Debts are being paid down from its EBITDA of RM1 billion. Debts only increased because USD had appreciated to USD4.40 as at 1st quarter and USD4.28 as at 2nd quarter. RM1.5 billion has been paid, translating to debt paring down of RM250 million a quarter. Enquest, its customer for Kraken has breakeven field of USD10-15 bucks, so they are still above water, and unless oil price plunge below USD10 for prolonged period of time, chances of them terminating is close to zero.

OMS is loss making, but still EBITDA positive. I read somewhere that Armada Constructor and Installer has assumed no jobs till 2022, so any further impairments before then is slim.

Armada will probably make around RM300-400 million a year here onwards. Management is doing the right thing, paring down debt aggressively and maintaining operational consistency.

I am leaning towards AmInvestment and Hong Leong's target price of RM0.50-RM0.60. Over next few quarters, once it makes 2 consecutive quarters of RM80-100 million profit, Koon Yew Yin's followers will buy as it is trading at 5x and meets his golden rule. Debt is not a problem as they are generating substantial EBITDA. Interest rate reduction of 2% also saves Armada RM50 million in interest cost a year.
15/10/2020 2:14 PM
Jojobaa CEO said FPSO is immune to oil price. Why? Because before they commit to a project they screen through the profile of clients and primarily the breakeven cost of oil prices. At USD40, most of its clients are still generating positive EBITDA and profit, with breakeven at USD15 and 27 respectively for Enquest, so no oil price will not pose a serious risk to its FPSO business under current conditions. An oil field is drilled after forecasting for 10 or more years and therefore its clients will continue to drill as long as it is generating positive cash flow. Termination of oil field will leave operators cripple as they cannot produce oil clients has to be severely financially distressed to take this step.
15/10/2020 2:23 PM
Jojobaa Some people are spooked with Maybank's valuation. First we have to understand that Maybank has written off approximately RM10 billion of its extension orderbook. This is a very drastic assumption. The recent extension of Armada TGT1 and Armada D1 has shown that not only will clients extend, they are even extending for longer durations (in the case of Armada D1) as oil field may still be producing robustly. Imagine if you just write off RM10 billion off a company's books. I don't see him doing the same on Yinson's orderbook.

Furthermore, Maybank has put a value of zero on the values of its OMS division. This is also not a fair assumption as its OMS division is still EBITDA positive. If an asset is EBITDA positive, it is still generating cash for its owner. The losses relates to the losses relative to the investment made on the assets but Armada has also been selling its OMS assets at gains (meaning sales price exceed book value).

Maybank has essentially valued Armada as if it is not cash flow positive, in financial distress and is at risk to declare bankrupty. I can assure you if you look at the cash flow statement, Armada has kitchen sunk most if not all its legacy investments and is a healthy company generating enough cash flow to pay off its debts and generate earnings for its shareholders.
15/10/2020 2:29 PM
Jojobaa Last but not least, there is also skepticism with regards for Armada to repay in excess of RM600 million over next 12 months (under current liabilities). Some analysts have reiterated that Armada needs to sell its OMS assets to pay this sum. In my view, selling the OMS assets is only a supplementary action to pay off its debts. Armada is generating RM1 billion per year after interest costs and that will be more than enough to pay RM600 million over the next 12 months.
15/10/2020 2:34 PM
zonefinder Am expecting this mother to jump to 50cts with 2 consecutive +ve qtrs.
15/10/2020 4:36 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. white. unchanged. Wait Nov QR.
15/10/2020 5:15 PM
itch Good analysis Jojobaa.

If we are patient, we will be richly rewarded.
15/10/2020 8:25 PM
TAK1 They have been trying to sell oms for the past 2 years without success with annual maintanance cost scrapyard waiting
16/10/2020 4:11 AM
Jojobaa Dear Mr TAK1, for the past 2 years, if you read the annual report, they have disposed off close to 20 OMS vessels, and now they have only circa 35 vessels remaining.

Again, if you read the financial statements, you would have also seen that the OMS division is EBITDA positive, meaning segment results still exceed depreciation charges, so I guess if you look at it objectively, you can bash the OMS for its poor performance. From my point of view, Armada is progressing well IN SPITE OF the annual maintenance cost scrapyard waiting whatever that you just said.
16/10/2020 9:15 AM
Upupshare Jojobaa, the story is different now for 2020 2nd half til 2021. Since MCO there were zero new contract from Petronas and oil majors in Malaysia...lets see how bad the result...
16/10/2020 10:11 AM
Jojobaa Upupshare, Armada's FPSO clients are Eni, Husky, Oil and Gas National Oil Company, Enquest, and Hong Loang Joint Operating Co. They have 0 FPSOs with Petronas, sir.
16/10/2020 10:19 AM
Jojobaa By the way Armada C7 got extended, for another 8 years firm period, so don't quite understand what you mean there were zero new contracts from Petronas and oil majors in Malaysia. None of Armada's FPSO operates in Malaysia.
16/10/2020 10:25 AM
strattegist kejung...sejuk beku
16/10/2020 10:58 AM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. cerita so much also tak jalan. Only QR with another 100mil profit then it will be different story. Stay tune. wait for the outcome in nov.
16/10/2020 11:04 AM
strattegist uuk uuk
16/10/2020 4:06 PM
RJ87 this is a zero sum game...Maybank IB buys heavy on Yinson. If FM comes looking for counters to buy from this sector; ofcos he is gonna say Yinson awesome and Armada lousy.

No need read what IB analyst say la...u take in the facts, we find out what they trying to hide.
Given risk and reward; I personally find armada offer better risk reward than yinson.

Yinson wanna give 300% return. Impossible.
Aramda wanna give 300% return. Sap sap sui. PE 10 on, EPS8 per annum (maintain EPS 2sen per quarter for the rest of 2021. Don't screw up for 1 year. DONE.

Go ask Maybank analyst what does it cost for Yinson to give 300% return?
Maybank analyst will say Armada earnings enough to cover finance cost or not? I can also throwback Yinson's debt isn't low. Maybank will say Yinson's collateralized assets are paying itself. I will say Armada's current high idling assets can also maintain 2sen eps. If can increase idle asset utilization, eps go up to 3-4sen?
16/10/2020 4:26 PM
strattegist uuk uuk
16/10/2020 5:29 PM
AnaiAnai uhuk uhuk. another week nearer to Nov QR date. can green today?
19/10/2020 8:52 AM
TunPika Showtime
19/10/2020 1:15 PM
Lukesharewalker Readied to break out
19/10/2020 3:33 PM
strattegist uuk uuk ler...
19/10/2020 5:24 PM
Mabel Maintain NEUTRAL. Based on the aforementioned points raised, we do not foresee Petronas elevating its upstream capex in the next 6-months. The prospects for upstream services players are still negative. However, most upstream services names have already went through a sizable decline in its share price. The share price of upstream services players like Dayang, Velesto, MMHE are expected to stay muted in the near-term and have fallen within our hold call thresholds.

Our top picks are Bumi Armada (TP: RM0.60, BUY) for its strong FPSO earnings and relative insulation from the volatility in oil prices and Serba (TP: RM2.50; BUY) for its strong recurring income from its O&M segment and large current orderbook backlog of RM18.5bn. We also like PCHEM (TP:RM6.50; BUY) as Petrochemical ASPs have increased due to delays and deferrals of impending petrochemical plant additions and improved demand of plas tics from the healthcare sector.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 14 Oct 2020
19/10/2020 9:36 PM
strattegist aiyoooooooo... uuk uuk
20/10/2020 12:12 PM


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