paktua73win bet at 1.64 and manage eat more at 1.65 now 3rd and 4th squad done reload use 100% their ammo.. means while 1st and 2nd squad still wait for final reload..
tut tut never faer to fight here..
11/12/2019 10:24 AM
Victor YongAirAsia Group Berhad - Non-Airline Business Rapidly Expanding Date: 28/11/2019
KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS 9MFY19 earnings were below expectations Healthy load factors did not come at the expense of average fares Teleport on target to meet RM400m annual revenue target Expansion cards of other non-airline ancillary business; i.e. BigPay’s e-money license in Singapore Prudent hedging policy helped to contain the rise in fuel expense Earnings estimates adjusted downwards Maintain BUY with revised TP of RM2.04 per share
Below expectations. The group recorded a 3QFY19 normalised net profit of RM6.0m (-96.3%yoy). This brings the cumulative 9MFY19 normalised net profit to RM27.3m (-96.7%yoy), missing ours and consensus’ expectations by a variance of more than 10%. The negative variance was due to the substantial increase in finance costs-lease liabilities and depreciation of right of use of asset following the MFRS16 adoption which is more than what we had expected. In addition, higher maintenance expense following higher provision for engine overall with higher number of leased aircraft. We expect the effect to be felt until end of FY19 when a new base is established.
RPK growth outgrew expansion in ASK…. The group’s 9MFY19 revenue was up by +14.0%yoy to RM8.8b. The robust growth was due to another record breaking number of passengers carried in 3QFY19 of 13.0m which was supported by the festive seasonality factor around ASEAN. As a result, the number of passengers carried in 9MFY19 grew by 18.8%yoy to 38.4m. With strong growth in passengers carried, the 15.8%yoy growth in RPK to 47,465m outpaced the ASK growth rate of 14.6%yoy in 9MFY19.
….which helped maintained a healthy load factor. As such, the load factor in 9MFY19 remained robust at 85.7%. This was despite the 17.6%yoy increase of international routes for its AOCs (Indonesia and the Philippines) and net addition of 23 aircraft. More importantly the strong load factor did not come at a cost at a lower average fares. In fact, there was a +0.2%yoy increase in average fares for 9MFY19 while Malaysia’s market share rose +3ppts to 60.0%.
Beefing up its non-airline businesses. The increase in passengers which contributed to higher 9MFY19 ticket sales of +18.9% to RM6.6b, also resulted in airline related ancillary income revenue to grow by +15.3%yoy. As for non-airline ancillary segments, total revenue more than quadrupled to RM475.2m. Most of the contribution for non-airline ancillary revenue came from Teleport at 70.2% and we expect it will reach its target of RM400m given the revenue recorded of RM333.5m in 1HFY19. Performance of Teleport in 2HFY19 will be enhanced by: (i) the launch of ‘teleport.social’, a platform enabling sellers on social media to integrate with Teleport’s logistics infrastructure; (ii) joint investment with Gobi Partners in EasyParcel; and (iii) direct interline agreement with Lufthansa Cargo.
Source: MIDF Research - 28 Nov 2019
11/12/2019 10:26 AM
Victor YongAirAsia Group Berhad - Look Beyond Price Competition Date: 28/11/2019
Stock : AIRASIA Source : TA Price Target : 2.01 Last Price : 1.65
Review Stripping out: 1) all exceptional items (-RM331.4mn), which came mostly from RM214.5mn fair value loss on derivative, 2) deferred tax credit (RM433.6mn), 3) one-off capital injection to offset AirAsia India’s prior losses (RM147mn), which charged to income statement, and 4) adding back unrecognised losses from India operations (app. RM45.90mn), AirAsia Group’s (AirAsia) recorded 9M19 core losses of RM86.1mn, which trailed analysts’expectations. The variance was largely due to underestimation of fare pressure, especially in Malaysia, arising from intense price competition. 9M19 earnings slipped into losses of RM86.1mn due to an adoption of MFRS16, which caused depreciation and finance costs to increase substantially by 230.2% and 53.0% respectively, at a pace much faster than revenue growth of 12.4%. Maintenance and overhaul was another cost component, which surged by whooping 93.4% and contributed to losses. By sector performance, Philippines AirAsia (PAA), Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) and AirAsia India (AAI) were star performers for this quarter with higher load factor along with favourable RASK-CASK spread. Malaysia AirAsia (MAA) had its RASK declined by 4.6% while CASK increased by 12.2%. Although Thai AirAsia (TAA) managed to reduce CASK by 7.5% YoY for this quarter, its load factor had declined to 80.5% (vs 80.8% in 3Q18 & 81.7% in 2Q19). Malaysia AirAsia (MAA), Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) and Philippines AirAsia (PAA) (AAG) – Yield stress. For 9M19, AAG recorded higher load factor of 85.6% (+0.9%-pts YoY) mainly due to market share gain by IAA and PAA. MAA’s load factor was relatively stable at 85.4% (-0.2%-pts YoY) but this was at the expense of lower fare. The price competition started by Malaysia Airlines has hurt airlines’ profit and management believe the fare pressure to normalise in 4Q19. Thai AirAsia (TAA) – loss expanded in 3Q19. The global trade tensions and strong Thai baht were to blame for the decline in load factor to 83.9% (-1.2%-pts) for 9M19. Yield was also under pressure as the decline in RASK (-6.1%) was at a faster pace than CASK (-2.4%). In local currency, TAA reported a loss before tax of THB716.7mn for 9M19 compared to a profit of THB539.4mn a year ago.
India (AAI) – Load >90%. AAI was the only affiliate recorded >90% load factor for 9M19, fuelled by demand growth of 39.6% and capacity growth of 28.2%. However, 9M19 loss before tax were little changed at INR4.7tn owing to substantial rise in staff cost, maintenance and overhaul costs and finance expenses.
Digital platform – EBITDA positive by 3Q20. Teleport reported higher revenue (48.4%) and EBITDA (14.9%) of 121.1mn and 62.1mn respectively for 3Q19. Meanwhile, AirAsia.com and BigPay suffered greater LBITDA of RM31.7mn (317%) for this quarter while building the economies of scale. According to management, these units are expected to be EBITDA-positive by 3Q20. Note that BigPay has obtained a licence in Singapore and would roll out its services soon. Impact We now assume MAA’s RASK to decline by 14.4% YoY (from decline of 9.2% previously) for 2019 to factor in the greater-than-expected fare pressure in 3Q19. However, we revise the growth in MAA’s RASK to 7% (from 4% previous) for fare normalisation in FY20. No change to our RASK growth assumption of less than 1% for FY21. All in, we cut our FY19/20/21 earnings projections by 77.4/22.8/38.2%. Outlook Management is positive on 2020 outlook as they look forward to fare normalisation in 4Q19. Meanwhile, the yield is expected to rise with the use of A321neo aircraft, which come with 236 seats or 50 seats more than A320neo. The group has received its first A321neo recently and will take delivery of 3 more for 2019. For 2020, 6 out of total 12 aircraft to be delivered to AirAsia would be A321neo. AirAsia will deploy the aircraft to service destinations with limited slots. Currently, AAGB has 5 aircraft which will be disposed to BBAM group pursuant to an earlier agreement signed by both parties. TAA would also dispose all 21 units of its owned-aircraft next month to unlock asset value. No major changes in fuel hedging as the group has maintained its position in hedging 65% of fuel requirement at US$62.77b (Brent) for 2019, 73% at US$60.22/b for 2020 and 19% at US$59.45/b for 2021. Valuation Looking beyond price competition, which is unsustainable in the long run, we advocate investors to Buy into AirAsia for its market share gain as well as its established networks, which are crucial for future profitability. Target price is reduced to RM2.01/share based on 10x CY20 EPS. Maintain Buy. Source: TA Research - 28 Nov 2019
11/12/2019 10:27 AM
Victor YongFuel hedging status. To-date, the Group has hedged 86% of Brent crude at USD60.72/bbl for 4Q19. Meanwhile, it also hedged an average of 73% of its fuel at USD60.22/bbl for FY20. Source: PublicInvest Research - 28 Nov 2019
11/12/2019 10:29 AM
Victor YongAirasia Group Berhad - Below Expectation Date: 28/11/2019
Stock : AIRASIA Source : PUBLIC BANK Price Target : 1.87 Last Price : 1.64
AirAsia Group (AAGB) reported headline net loss of RM51.4m in 3QFY19. After excluding forex loss of RM112m, fair value loss on derivatives of RM237.7m and deferred tax asset of RM292.3m, its core net profit for 3QFY19 was RM6m. YTD 9MFY19, core net profit stood at RM17.5m, which accounts for only 11% and 4% of our and consensus’ full year expectations respectively. The discrepancy was mainly due to higher-than-expected depreciation, finance cost as well as losses from its share of associates. We adjust our numbers accordingly, which reduces our earnings for FY19-21F by an average of 73%. We also change our valuation methodology to 1.5x book value per share (previously 11x PER) given the uncertainties in its earnings trajectory. Our target price is lowered slightly to RM1.87 (previously RM1.89), though we retain our call on AirAsia at Neutral.
Revenue for airline grew 17% to RM2.9bn in 3Q19, from RM2.5bn in 3Q18. The growth is on the back of higher passengers carried (+20%) and revenue per average seat km (RASK) (+1%). Both its Philippines (PAA) and Indonesian (IAA) operations reported higher unit passenger revenue by 3% and 1% respectively. Nevertheless, Malaysia’s (MAA) operations reported lower unit passenger revenue (-1%) in 3Q19, with average fare for domestic routes dropping 15% YoY, while its international routes were flat YoY. We understand that the average fare in 4Q19 is now showing around 12% improvement YoY. For 9MFY19, airline revenue grew 15% YoY owing to higher number of passengers carried (+11%) and flat RASK (-0.1%). Higher CASK due to increase in operations and impact of adopting MFRS16. Cost per ASK excluding fuel (CASK ex-fuel) in 3Q19 jumped 19% YoY at 9.63 sen, compared to 8.11 sen in 3Q18. This is following the increase in staff costs (+15%), provisions for maintenance and overhaul (+118%), user charges (+27%), and other operating expenses (+31%). Earnings were however cushioned by lower average fuel cost that dropped 10% YoY to USD85 per barrel in 3Q19 (vs 3Q18: USD95/bbl). This brings its aircraft fuel expenses higher by 3% YoY to RM1.06bn, despite fuel consumption increasing by 14% YoY to 3m barrels in 3Q19. Overall, CASK jumped 7% from 14.30 sen in 3Q18 to 15.29 sen in 3Q19. For 9MFY19, CASK increased 9.6% YoY, from 13.87 sen to 15.21 sen. Fleet plan. The Group is targeting for a net fleet growth of 18 aircraft this year across its air operator’s certificate (AOCs), with the first A321neo received in November 2019, this plane having 50 more seats than the A320neo. We understand that this aircraft will be operated from its KL hub on popular routes and airports with infrastructure constraints. Initially, the destinations will include Kuching, Kota Kinabalu, Singapore, Bangkok and Shenzhen routes. To-date, the Group still owns 26 aircraft (i.e. Malaysia: 5, Thailand: 21), while the rest are currently under operating leases. For FY20, it targets to have a net addition of 12 aircraft to its fleet size, of which 7 aircraft will be delivered to its Indian (AAI) unit. Fuel hedging status. To-date, the Group has hedged 86% of Brent crude at USD60.72/bbl for 4Q19. Meanwhile, it also hedged an average of 73% of its fuel at USD60.22/bbl for FY20. Source: PublicInvest Research - 28 Nov 2019
Victor Yongbecoming a fintech , fintech valuation to be applied to airasia soon? :)
AirAsia CEO: BigPay can give Alipay, GrabPay a run for their ... https://www.cnbc.com › 2018/11/06 › airasia-ceo-bigpay-can-give-alipay-gr... Nov 6, 2018 - AirAsia's mobile payment app, BigPay, is a part of the airline's strategy to ... business under its parent company AirAsia, launched its app earlier this year. ... “We got a fantastic fintech business where we're going to give Alipay, ...
11/12/2019 11:37 AM
Kendo Ken HzBigpay locally just a banking debit card, it is far way off from tngo alipay grab RGB ghl.... .....dream on tf...unless u do something real Big
Good123no wonder , airlines stocks senyam :) KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 11): Global benchmark Brent crude price is expected to increase to US$68 per barrel by end-2020 compared with US$64 per barrel today as global growth momentum picks up. OCBC Bank economist Howie Lee said the US-China trade deal would likely still be the main driver of prices next year, which suggests that prices would remain highly volatile. “The oil price upward trajectory will not be smooth next year. The US presidential elections may generate even more volatility from President Donald Trump's campaigning. “The indecision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus non-OPEC members on supply for 2020 means an element of supply risk is added to the market going into the new year,” he said in the bank’s ‘Commodity Outlook 2020’ report today. He said the wave of political unrest across the globe in 2019 may have contagion effects where non-secular protests could spread in the Middle East and Latin America. Meanwhile, commenting on palm oil, Lee said the prices were expected to stay elevated in the near term but a correction was likely due from the second quarter onwards and eventually the price would average at RM2,600 per tonne next year. He said a combination of factors, namely the African swine flu outbreak in China, B30 biodiesel implementation in Indonesia beginning January 2020 and poor production had sent palm prices close to nearly RM3,000 per tonne. “The market typically requires six months to correct the supply-demand imbalance and this suggests prices are expected to remain elevated through 1Q 2020, before correcting from 2Q 2020 onwards. "A trade deal plus a subsiding of the swine flu in China will likely be bearish for palm,” he said. Meanwhile, for soybean outlook, the price is expected to increase to US$9.50 a bushel compared with US$8.99 a bushel today as inventories of beans in China are running low on a combination of poor demand due to the swine flu and reduced supply. “Globally, the supply picture looks tight; we think the market is one trade deal away from a substantial price rally across most bean origins,” he said. The report also projected that gold is expected to continue trading between US$1,450 per ounce to US$1,500 per ounce in 1Q 2020. Lee said gold’s appeal has waned on the back of rebounding Treasury yields and a stabilising global economy and a return of 10-year Treasury yields above 1.9 percent could potentially sink gold prices below US$1,450 per ounce. “Selling pressure is expected to intensify from 2Q 2020 onwards, with price potentially falling back to US$1,400 per ounce,” he said. Lee added China and India’s physical demand for gold may pick up in 2020 on the back of strengthening currencies, but were expected to provide limited cushioning to any potential sell-off.
12/12/2019 1:58 PM
AgjlAA will subject to few factors....volatile oil prices, higher operating costs, changes in accounting reporting standard, and a highly competitive aviation industry ......in short term diversifications will not be fast enough to offset all these negatives....longer term, yes. In the next 2 years, i would expect bumpy rides...thanks for the past dividends, AA...
paktua73done paktua troops final reloaded at 1.65 now all squad manage to avrrge down below 1.67.. from now we will hold until rise back above 1.90 n go to final destination 2.80..
