Highlights
KLSE: HLIND (3301)       HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD MAIN : Consumer
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
8.40   0.00 (0.00%)  8.38 - 8.42  76,900
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Ann. Date Ex Date Payment Date Type Subject Amount View
22-May-2020 10-Jun-2020 25-Jun-2020 DIVIDEND Second Interim Dividend RM 0.2500 Dividend Detail
26-Nov-2019 10-Dec-2019 27-Dec-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.17 Dividend Detail
28-May-2019 14-Jun-2019 28-Jun-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.35 Dividend Detail
12-Nov-2018 27-Nov-2018 13-Dec-2018 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.15 Dividend Detail
10-May-2018 08-May-2018 25-May-2018 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.32 Dividend Detail
09-Nov-2017 23-Nov-2017 12-Dec-2017 DIVIDEND First Interim Dividend RM 0.15 Dividend Detail
25-Apr-2017 12-May-2017 30-May-2017 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.3 Dividend Detail
08-Nov-2016 22-Nov-2016 08-Dec-2016 DIVIDEND First Interim Dividend RM 0.15 Dividend Detail
19-Apr-2016 05-May-2016 24-May-2016 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.2900 Dividend Detail
17-Nov-2015 01-Dec-2015 17-Dec-2015 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.1300 Dividend Detail
21-Apr-2015 07-May-2015 26-May-2015 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.1700 Dividend Detail
11-Nov-2014 25-Nov-2014 10-Dec-2014 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.12 Dividend Detail
30-Sep-2014 14-Oct-2014 16-Oct-2014 CAPITAL_REPAYMENT Others 1080 : 1000 Dividend Detail
28-Apr-2014 14-May-2014 30-May-2014 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.15 Dividend Detail
22-Nov-2013 05-Dec-2013 20-Dec-2013 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.1 Dividend Detail
30-Apr-2013 15-May-2013 07-Jun-2013 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.16 Dividend Detail
29-Nov-2012 12-Dec-2012 28-Dec-2012 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.1 Dividend Detail
26-Apr-2012 14-May-2012 08-Jun-2012 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.12 Dividend Detail
21-Nov-2011 06-Dec-2011 22-Dec-2011 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.11 Dividend Detail
01-Jun-2011 14-Jun-2011 16-Jun-2011 CAPITAL_DISTRIBUTION Others 75 : 300 Dividend Detail
29-Apr-2011 13-May-2011 10-Jun-2011 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.105 Dividend Detail
23-Feb-2011 08-Mar-2011 10-Mar-2011 RIGHTS_ISSUE Rights Issue 1 : 2 Dividend Detail
16-Nov-2010 01-Dec-2010 22-Dec-2010 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.1 Dividend Detail
25-May-2010 09-Jun-2010 28-Jun-2010 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.1 Dividend Detail
17-Nov-2009 02-Dec-2009 21-Dec-2009 DIVIDEND First Interim Dividend RM 0.07 Dividend Detail
18-May-2009 01-Jun-2009 18-Jun-2009 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.05 Dividend Detail
18-Nov-2008 02-Dec-2008 18-Dec-2008 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.05 Dividend Detail
22-May-2008 04-Jun-2008 20-Jun-2008 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.1 Dividend Detail
28-Nov-2007 12-Dec-2007 28-Dec-2007 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.05 Dividend Detail
23-May-2007 07-Jun-2007 25-Jun-2007 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.05 Dividend Detail
07-Nov-2006 24-Nov-2006 12-Dec-2006 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.05 Dividend Detail
25-May-2006 13-Jun-2006 28-Jun-2006 INTEREST Loan Stock Interest 4% Dividend Detail
23-May-2006 09-Jun-2006 23-Jun-2006 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.075 Dividend Detail
21-Nov-2005 08-Dec-2005 27-Dec-2005 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0375 Dividend Detail
16-May-2005 02-Jun-2005 22-Jun-2005 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.05 Dividend Detail
25-Nov-2004 13-Dec-2004 30-Dec-2004 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.0375 Dividend Detail
17-May-2004 04-Jun-2004 25-Jun-2004 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.0375 Dividend Detail
20-Nov-2003 12-Dec-2003 29-Dec-2003 INTEREST Loan Stock Interest 4% Dividend Detail
18-Nov-2003 10-Dec-2003 26-Dec-2003 DIVIDEND First Interim Dividend RM 0.025 Dividend Detail
25-Feb-2003 17-Mar-2003 31-Mar-2003 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.025 Dividend Detail
13-May-2002 30-May-2002 20-Jun-2002 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend 18% Dividend Detail
30-Apr-2002 17-May-2002 21-May-2002 RIGHTS_ISSUE Rights Issue 1 : 1 Dividend Detail
19-Feb-2002 08-Mar-2002 25-Mar-2002 DIVIDEND First Interim Dividend 17% Dividend Detail
08-May-2001 24-May-2001 18-Jun-2001 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend 25% Dividend Detail
07-Feb-2001 23-Feb-2001 13-Mar-2001 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend 25% Dividend Detail
21-Aug-2000 25-Oct-2000 15-Nov-2000 DIVIDEND Final Dividend 35% Dividend Detail
24-Jan-2000 24-Feb-2000 21-Mar-2000 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend 10% Dividend Detail
08-Sep-1999 22-Oct-1999 15-Nov-1999 DIVIDEND Final Dividend 11% Dividend Detail
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  5 people like this.
 
limkokthye c liao, sell all the stock now
16/03/2020 6:57 PM
limkokthye holland industries
16/03/2020 6:58 PM
RainT down n down more
16/03/2020 8:24 PM
observatory Today the closing price is RM6.78. I wonder what kind of scenario it has priced in. Factory and dealer shops' closure due to Covid-19 outbreak? Deep recession?

It's impossible to predict the bottom. But given HLIND's strong balance sheet, it should survive even a deep recession.

As of the lastest quarter, net cash is RM1,254m - RM32m = RM1,223m, or RM3.9 per share. FCF is RM1.6 per share. Even if it just breaks even this year, but recovers next year, I believe there is still a good margin of safety.

For long term investors, the dilemma may be prices for other stocks have also fallen a lot. It's hard to judge the relative attractiveness among them. But HLIND at current price seems quite attractive.
16/03/2020 9:02 PM
SilverHawk Margin call force selling maybe the reason of desperate dumping
16/03/2020 9:08 PM
Harry lol
16/03/2020 9:11 PM
observatory Speculators probably won't buy this stock on margin given its share price is slow-moving? May be fund managers need to dump the stock to meet redemption demand or raising cash to buy more attractive bargains?
16/03/2020 10:01 PM
shareinvestor88 bye tp 2
16/03/2020 11:30 PM
SilverHawk Margin call were based on Margin Of Finance ratio in the portfolio. Yes , there was margin call around few of my friend this few days. So , they need either top up cash or deplete some position on their portfolio ( They can choose to sell any counter in the portfolio to reduce finance amount ). MOF varies among bank. Some bank once reach MOF 55% u need top up or force sell. Some bank will tolerate till MOF 60%, 65% or even 70%.

But based on today's volume, more chance is : the fund desparate dumping. Most likely is foreign fund. A number of counters fall more than 10% include my babies aeoncr. Carlsberg Aji Heineken ... also fall more than ten percent. Banking sector also huge fall recently . There is nothing to do with FA. Some relate this to worsening of macro due to oil crash and covid 19 and even recession.

Dumping to meet redemption demand maybe is another factor.

In economics term, when supply of liquidity ( huge dumping ) is more than demand, price will fall, and vice versa.

If we are in zero margin, non FA related price fall is nothing to impact us immediately. We either just keep or top up. When time move , it's share price will come back.

If we are able to hold for years as long as the value still there or company is still growing, those months long issue shouldn't be a problem to us.
16/03/2020 11:31 PM
observatory Agree. For long term investment, the focus should be on the fundamentals; that the company's long term prospect remains healthy and is not affected by current events.
16/03/2020 11:51 PM
RainT @silverhawk

thanks for share insight
18/03/2020 11:11 AM
limkokthye ho lland industries
19/03/2020 3:48 PM
Darius Tanz Dividend is great, fundamentals great. I'm investing in hlind fr very long term.

https://netflyp.com/2020-dividend-growth-stocks-on-bursa-malaysia/
31/03/2020 8:59 AM
kywoo I understand from dealers that there is a pent up demand for motorcycle in the country. As food delivery is getting very popular day by day the demand for motorcycle is increasing. As income level of the working class is expected to come down, people prefer motorcycle to cars to save cost. Car sale will be down and motorcycle sale will benefit. One can expect Yamaha bike sale to jump up in the coming months. That is good news for the company as 90% of company profit come from Motorcycle sales.
01/04/2020 9:51 AM
kywoo For certain strange reasons motorcycle buyers in Malaysia prefer Yamaha bikes to other brands. That is why Yamaha captures about 51% of local market. On the other hand Vietnamese buyers prefer Honda bikes than any brand. Yamaha is trying hard to capture a higher share but find it an uphill task.
01/04/2020 9:58 AM
kywoo Another good thing about company is that it can increase Yamaha bikes production by 30% to 40% without increasing capital expenditure on plant expansion and hence increasing cash inflow. One can expect the already bloated cash holding to increase even further in coming years. Company has to increase dividend payment substantially to contain growth of cash holding.
01/04/2020 10:08 AM
x3mg33 Makes a lot of sense @kywoo hopefully with it’s strong cash flow the company is able to weather the storm
01/04/2020 3:33 PM
kingJ With the over 1b in bank, now its time to invest in good potential companies
09/04/2020 7:19 PM
Gemstar Yah cash flow and good dividend better than asb
17/04/2020 10:12 AM
Gemstar Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Hong Leong Industries Berhad.

KLSE:HLIND Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year MY Government Bond Rate 3.4%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for KLSE:HLIND
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year MY Govt Bond Rate 3.4%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 7.0%
Industrials Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.87
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.868) * (1 + (1 - 24.0%) (1.96%))] 0.920
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.920
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 3.42% + (0.920 * 6.96%) 9.83%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for KLSE:HLIND using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Hong Leong Industries Berhad is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

KLSE:HLIND DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 9.83%)
2020 515.72 Est @ 2.93% 469.58
2021 531.59 Est @ 3.08% 440.73
2022 548.5 Est @ 3.18% 414.07
2023 566.34 Est @ 3.25% 389.28
2024 585.04 Est @ 3.3% 366.16
2025 604.57 Est @ 3.34% 344.54
2026 624.9 Est @ 3.36% 324.26
2027 646.02 Est @ 3.38% 305.23
2028 667.93 Est @ 3.39% 287.35
2029 690.65 Est @ 3.4% 270.54
Present value of next 5 years cash flows MYR3,611
KLSE:HLIND DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= MYR690.645 x (1 + 3.42%) ÷ (9.83% - 3.42% ) MYR11,151.18
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
MYR11,151 ÷ (1 + 9.83%)10 MYR4,368.15
KLSE:HLIND Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= MYR3,611 + MYR4,368 MYR7,979.15
Equity Value per Share
(MYR) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= MYR7,979 / 314 MYR25.41
KLSE:HLIND Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (MYR) From above.
17/04/2020 10:58 AM
kywoo Wow. Your analysis is so complicating that most people may not understand. Although I have been a serious investor for over 45 years and had been a successful one, I never resort to such meticulous and complicating calculation. I wonder if fund managers and stock analyst use such detailed method before they make recommendations for lay investors to buy. Anyway, good job and thanks for effort.
19/04/2020 4:49 PM
Gemstar ;) just sharing
25/04/2020 6:17 PM
FoolsGold "We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity."

guess sja lah...
25/04/2020 6:29 PM
FoolsGold but feels better when buy is supported by highgly qualified guessers..
25/04/2020 6:32 PM
observatory @Gemstar, thanks for your sharing.
I also use discounted cash flow model for the purpose of double checking. I’ll vary the assumed initial FCF, growth rate, perpetual growth, discount rate to get an idea of different fair values under different assumptions. I also reverse calculate from the current price to understand what are the assumptions implied in the current share price.

After doing one company, the exercise can be extended to other companies (although very time consuming). While I don’t believe in a precise fair value (that doesn’t exist), I think such exercise helps to understand relative attractiveness across different companies.

But back to your valuation, I have a few questions/ comments:

1. Your stage 1 is based on 10-year period, not 5 years as mentioned

2. Your discount rate of 9.8% seems fair. I’m wary of using beta to calculate discount rate, as beta changes over time when share price swings. But I think a 10% discount for a conservative company with a huge net cash position is fair.

3. I’m skeptical about the year 2020 FCF projected by the analyst you mentioned (BTW which analyst?). I guess the projection RM515.72 million is related to the trailing 12 months FCF which is RM512 million. But during the MCO of at least 8 weeks, sales & factory operation across all businesses will be severely impacted. There is also potentially weak demand post-MCO. Vietnam associate may face similar challenges. The company may bounce back in 2021, but I think 2020 will see a much lower FCF than the past 12 months.

4. Your FCF growth rate assumption starts at 2.93% in the first year, and it grows faster and faster until 3.4%, and the perpetual growth rate is the highest at 3.42%. Such an assumption is unusual because all businesses face increasing competition over time. A prudent approach might be to start with a higher growth rate, but settle with a lower perpetual growth rate at the terminal stage.

Try varying those assumptions and the fair value can differ substantially.
26/04/2020 12:46 AM
RainT meow
28/04/2020 6:55 PM
pinnaclegrade Par Value 0.50 ...
07/05/2020 9:35 PM
Multibagger @Gemstar, thanks for the good effort. Getting different views and feedback will allow us to learn together. But I have some reservation on the assumptions and generally agree with Observatory's comments on initial FCF and FCF growth assumption (looking at past years average FCF, 500 mil is definitely on the very high side). For me, 300 to 400 mil would be a more reasonable range.

What contribute to the growth assumption? If it is motorcycle sales, which is a durable consumer goods, what drive it? Population growth or inflation? Dont think can derive growth from building materials unit.

There is one area you may want to rethink again in your IV calculation...Has the Non Controlling Interest (or Minority Interest as I, the old timer used to know it in the past) been factored in? If we look at the Income statement and Balance sheet, this NCI is rather substantial.

Anyway, IV is a just an indicator as there are too many variables and assumptions in the model.
BUt one thing is sure, it has lots of cash and is a strong cash generator with minimum CAPEX.
09/05/2020 6:41 AM
RainT hope that HLIND can utilise its cash reserve for expand business

just depend on the motorbike only is not enough

HLIND dont have competitve advantage over ist motorbike business
09/05/2020 5:48 PM
bestman Post removed. Why?
09/05/2020 6:05 PM
ykloh its dumb for the big cash pile to be left idling.
10/05/2020 12:42 AM
RainT meow...
19/05/2020 11:51 AM
pinnaclegrade any idea when will the Q1 report be released?
22/05/2020 2:01 PM
ongkkh Released and profit is dropping...
22/05/2020 6:30 PM
pinnaclegrade understandably, as majority of businesses are affected by the mco /cmco due to coronavirus.. hope there won't be a 2nd wave of infections after raya and business can stabilize and prosper once again
22/05/2020 9:44 PM
mf gap down
22/05/2020 9:45 PM
observatory Dividend is cut from 35sen to 25sen to "preserve" cash!
22/05/2020 10:09 PM
Eric963708 net cash company stil reduce dividend
23/05/2020 3:56 AM
RainT dont care for its prospect

see the cash pile, just hold it till next quarter
23/05/2020 12:32 PM
Thinkcarefully Next quarter would be worse - April to June.
Hopefully would improve in 2nd half
25/05/2020 10:39 AM
gohku Look attractive to collect at this price.
A very well manage company of Hong Leong Group, its dividend exceed banks deposits rate,
25/05/2020 10:57 AM
gemfinder I dun think is attactive to colec now
25/05/2020 10:58 AM
gohku You pay a fair price for a good quality stable stock.

Alot of people are hunting for yield.

Pe 7x and dividend yield above 6% pa is highly attractive.
25/05/2020 11:05 AM
Bao2lai Correct me if im wrong, dy still got 6% base on current market price? Dps is 42 , to get 6% meaning Rm8160 per share still need to discount at least 14.2%.
25/05/2020 6:39 PM
EngineeringProfit My favourite for long term
25/05/2020 6:49 PM
Bao2lai Consumer mind set with a branded product drive by a lack transparency management. The latter need to improve for a better forward pe.
25/05/2020 7:08 PM
Jaya RainT
This got very good upside
25/05/2020 8:36 PM
Jaya Sell sell people
Lower the price
I want to buy cheap for long term
26/05/2020 6:31 AM
pinnaclegrade investment grade stock for the long term, grade A dividend play
26/05/2020 8:50 PM
pinnaclegrade good stock, but very low volume. Want to buy, but not enough sellers.
When it comes to liquidating, might not have any buyers ...
02/06/2020 1:53 PM


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