huathuat888Yinson on Maybank Research’s preferred oil and gas list https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/03/yinson-on-maybank-research-preferred-oil-and-gas-list/
03/01/2018 11:31
Alan930000Yinson volume + price upupup ! see you at rm5 !!
04/01/2018 15:54
pvcncoKau sai. I waited 2 yrs and sold at rm4 making rm1.1. After 3 days bust out 4.32. Oh well...
05/01/2018 14:45
Alan930000why sell so fast ? maybe reach rm5 very soon !!
commonsenseBeing an FPSO specialist company, it is normal that Yinson has a high concentration risk given that both its revenue and profit comes from only a handful of sources (which is limited by the number of FPSO it has). As of Feb 19, the company has a total of 4 FPSO/ FSO that is currently generating revenue and profit to the group: FPSO Adoon, FPSO Lam Son, FPSO John Agyekum Kufuor (JAK) and FSO Bien Bong 01. However please take note that FPSO Adoon contract is set to expire in Apr 2019 and Lam Son’s by June 2019. The contract for another FPSO, Knock Allan, had just expired last month.
Given the 3 expected contract expiration in 2019, investors need to be prepared to see a sudden fall in profit for the FY20 (ending Jan 2020) to only around RM200mil which at the current share price values the company at a high PE of 22x. That being said, the company should see a boost in earning for FY21 given the expected completion of FPSO Helang schedule by the end of 2019 to be deploy to JX Nippon Sarawak field (Yinson “bought” this contract from TH Heavy Engineering). Another potential is an FPSO to supply to First Exploration & Petroleum Development Company Ltd (FEP) for its fields in Nigeria but the contract details has yet to be reveal so it might not be too soon. Maybe for FY22 and beyond.
The issue with FPSO business is not just getting the contracts. Given the duration of the contracts which normally runs at above 10 years period, investors need also to study the financial viability of the oil fields where the FPSOs are being deployed as well as the counterparty risk. We have heard of a lot of FPSO contracts being terminated early which is a big risk to the FPSO owners as most of the FPSO are design for a specific oil field. The asset cannot be easily deployed elsewhere without having spent substantial amount of capex.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Yinson (due to its relatively high valuation and concentration risks), I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
Good luck.
04/02/2019 09:08
ShinnzaiiWhat is the latest status of Petróleo Brasileiro SA’s project bid by yinson?
14/02/2019 16:00
(S = Qr) Philip2.3 billion in o&m awarded by Nippon jx for fpso layang. Announced yesterday! Nice! What tabung haji can't do, YINSON can with it's multinational group of Nordic sailers and engineers!
How many Malaysian companies can you find where their competence people are white ghosts?
One sell cars in a very tight and competitive market which is growth limited. Do you think perodua cars can succeed outside of Malaysia? Can the sales explode to Indonesia and Philippines and China? Obviously no. So I'm 5-10 years time where do you see mbmr? Try to understand the meaning of the word terminal growth.
YINSON on the other hand is an international fpso company that only recently started a foothold into Malaysian market. With this win and more confidence more fpso jobs will be awarded to them. And they are bidding in Brazil, Africa, Canada, Vietnam and many international countries. It is a company that is not limited by location and more importantly in a growing market that is very hard for new competition to go into due to reputation, competency, licensing and capex requirements.
Most importantly 10-20 years from now the only oil you will find it's in the open sea, as cheap oil in easy to dig areas get lesser and lesser.
Mbmr? Got Mazda bmazauto, got tanchong, got Toyota, got proton, got that 3rd car company mahathir wants to kick off...
How many cars can Malaysian afford to buy? We are already spoiled for choice. 10 years from now what is the future of mbmr?
15/02/2019 09:35
qqq3Not necessary to buy MBM.....but failure rates in FPSO surely higher than MBM........
In the case of yinson...u have extension risks, high gearing ( manageable as long as no surprises), ....The price has built in no extension risk.....but 2 of the FPSO are due for expiry.
and for many FPSO, default risks, country risks, high concentration risks....Brazil, Venezuela, Nigeria , Ghana.....all these countries have high risks attached .......Yinson in which country?
This Yinson has avoided the problems of Armada and sapura.....they say they are so smart.....maybe lucky?
Mahathir son left Sapura and invested in Yinson.....This Mahathir son as smart as his father, so far..................
15/02/2019 10:25
qqq3high PE and high failures rates not a good combination.......
15/02/2019 10:26
qqq3who is this commonsense?.........he sounds like a full time analyst...............
15/02/2019 10:53
(S = Qr) PhilipYINSON is very smart. They don't hedge on oil prices like Armada and sapura. They only sell on calculated charter rates, meaning when contract is signed the contract pays for the fpso conversation costs and charter rates for 8 years+ optional extension. Guaranteed, calculated straightforward profit.
More importantly in their contract firmly states any cancellation the charterer must pay cancellation fee which is exactly the loan+interest taken for conversion and management of fpso.
So they won't lose money even if charter cancelled.
How did Armada and sapura lose? They got greedy. Their charter and lease are signed differently. They signed based on barrels profit sharing sales agreement. 30% sapura 70% petronas.
So when the price per barrel dropped, sure lose money la. They estimated previous contract at 75-90 USD per barrel to earn money.
When the price per barrel dropped tp 40-60 per barrel, you think sapura and Armada can make money?
Need to read between the lines. Fpso utilization rates, total manpower, planning, backup cash to get more projects.
Why do you think thhe couldn't handle fpso conversion? No money. Why do you think Armada and sapura losing jobs to yinson? No money. If you were a bank, who would you lend money to? International company like YINSON? Or redlining company like Armada and sapura?
15/02/2019 11:02
qqq3Armada got into trouble because their customers not financially strong...sue them also no use......
Yinson says they are very careful what customers they choose.....they say their credit department, their legal department very strong, water tight agreements, strong customers, all their contracts ring fenced and have good oil fields to work on, Yinson says they don't incur expenditure until got customers one, Yinson says they don't built , then look for customers...............that is what people always says......
15/02/2019 11:41
qqq3Mahathir left UMNO join PH Son left Sapura join Yinson....
both also smart.
15/02/2019 11:52
qqq3Yinson Holdings Bhd’s wholly-owned subsidiary Yinson Energy Sdn Bhd has been awarded a contract worth US$578 million or RM2.357 billion from JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration (Malaysia) Ltd to provide operations and maintenance (O&M) services for the latter’s floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facilities.
today....................this is very good news...new revenue stream, new area......
now, help to maintain and operate other people FPSO......
15/02/2019 12:29
(S = Qr) PhilipNot really new, it's mainly for the fpso helang that is already on the way. The contract is basically 8 years as well to operations and maintenance for that fpso. They converted four rainbow, now currently in China ahead of schedule.
It's very impressive. Looking at things they will start this year 4Q to the Malaysian site, ahead of schedule as they expected 2020Y2Q.
15/02/2019 12:33
qqq3by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 15, 2019 12:33 PM | Report Abuse
Not really new ========
ok...
15/02/2019 12:43
Yu_and_MeeWhy got so big contract share price also not go up? Unbelievable.
