Highlights
KLSE: PETRONM (3042)       PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD MAIN : Energy
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
5.06   +0.22 (4.55%)  4.88 - 5.15  174,500
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General Retail Institutional
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  9 people like this.
 
john0909 @sheldon, realistically speaking, to be honest, expecting an exceed of 100m (means 37cents of EPS) is abit of over optimistic for me... at least from my data generally it is not that impressive yet to make a net profit of >100mil... again i do really wish that i'm wrong and you were right though...
06/01/2020 1:47 PM
Equityengineer Seems moving up in tandem with oil counters. Let’s stop at 6 before QR
06/01/2020 2:02 PM
gemfinder rm6 is achievable
06/01/2020 2:04 PM
Equityengineer Need to go back to over 30 cents eps next 2-3 q then chances price will double . Any take on dividend this year ?
06/01/2020 3:00 PM
sheldon So Choivo Capital & john0909 - what're your respective answers?
06/01/2020 3:12 PM
Choivo Capital No idea, beyond it should make 200m or so owners earnings (normalized downwards) this year.
06/01/2020 3:31 PM
sheldon Actually it's bad luck to predict lofty targets.

Also lofty targets make it easier to perform below expectations causing a disappointment.
06/01/2020 4:30 PM
PH_1_term Petrol RM 1.5 why must cheat before GE14?
16/01/2020 10:49 PM
sheldon Limbo rock - How poor can we go
31/01/2020 4:47 PM
Choivo Capital Well, here's to hoping it drops to 4.

As the size is too big for me, that only around that price would i be willing to buy more.
31/01/2020 5:32 PM
Panorama1 Stay Calm, Stay Invested. This unexpected 2019-nCoV pandemic is creating a sea of red for all equities markets.
31/01/2020 8:52 PM
sheldon Choivo Capital Well, here's to hoping it drops to 4....

Likewise - looks like our natural risk management instinct of diversification kicks in
01/02/2020 4:50 AM
Outliar Added at 4.61 :)
03/02/2020 4:00 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Choivo I find you a waste of time with your sarcasm.

How about this? I am willing to bet that your petronm will not hit 200 million in earnings for this year. As I am sure that you don't know anything about your analysis on petronm, I am willing to give you a heads up.

If I am wrong I will write whatever you want me to write. I will give you my revised honest intrinsic valuation for ql.

If you are wrong and petronm does not hit 200m in earnings this year, you will write whatever I ask you to write.

Deal?
03/02/2020 6:58 PM
gemfinder Badly hit
03/02/2020 7:42 PM
Choivo Capital Phillip,

Do you mean 2019 ?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-01-27-story-h1482933261-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Really_Understanding_Owners_Earnings.jsp

On owners earnings basis as described above, i'm relatively confident.

However, whatever you want me to write, well, you're going to need to be specific. Hard to do a cost benefit analysis otherwise.
05/02/2020 4:39 PM
sheldon Earnings for 3 quarters to Sep is 148m++. Given the favorable slight uptrend of crude from Oct - Dec 2019 & on the basis that there was no hedging, I believe Petron could register about 50m, bringing the total for the year to about 200m
06/02/2020 2:34 PM
Choivo Capital No, last q will be a loss.

The inventory needs to be valued at Net Realisable Value in the audited accounts. Given the drop in value for oil over the last month.

Assuming they hedge their usual, accounting for hedges you will be looking at a 70M inventory loss or so.

If for some reason the hedge is not valued using NRV and inventory is, it would be in excess of RM100m inventory loss.
10/02/2020 2:17 PM
Sslee Dear Choivo,
Refer:
https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html
If you look into Ron97 government weekly fixed price for month Oct, Nov, Dec 2019 (RM 2.79 to 2.60 to 2.67 to 2.68 to 2.59 to 2.56 to 2.57 to 2.70 to 2.66 to 2.64 to 2.58 to 2.63) I think Petron Q4 2019 refinery should be positive.

But Q1 2020 so far Ron97 continues dropping from (RM 2.65 to 2.62 to 2.53 to 2.49 to 2.41 to 2.34) Refinery should report loss due to stocks inventory losses.

Thank you
P/S: Petron report a loss of RM 25.545 million Q4 2018 when Ron97 monthly fixed price Oct: Nov: Dec 2018 (RM 2.79: RM 2.81: RM 2.50)
10/02/2020 4:57 PM
stockraider It is time to move on from refinery stocks loh...!!

Petron had not embark into Euro 4 & 5 upgrades...that will cost at least Rm 1.5b loh....!!

Very costly mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > Feb 10, 2020 4:57 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Choivo,
Refer:
https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malays...
If you look into Ron97 government weekly fixed price for month Oct, Nov, Dec 2019 (RM 2.79 to 2.60 to 2.67 to 2.68 to 2.59 to 2.56 to 2.57 to 2.70 to 2.66 to 2.64 to 2.58 to 2.63) I think Petron Q4 2019 refinery should be positive.

But Q1 2020 so far Ron97 continues dropping from (RM 2.65 to 2.62 to 2.53 to 2.49 to 2.41 to 2.34) Refinery should report loss due to stocks inventory losses.

Thank you
P/S: Petron report a loss of RM 25.545 million Q4 2018 when Ron97 monthly fixed price Oct: Nov: Dec 2018 (RM 2.79: RM 2.81: RM 2.50)
10/02/2020 5:02 PM
Sslee Hahahaha stockraider,
The Nov to Dec 2019 crack spread is abot usd 6 .
10/02/2020 5:31 PM
Choivo Capital sslee,

At the end of the year audit, one of the test that auditors do for inventories, is to see if it is held at book at Lower of NRV or cost.

Typically, its best practice to use the latest price.

So in this case, if they are to use the prices as at today to value the dec inventory, there will be an inventory loss.
10/02/2020 6:24 PM
Choivo Capital EURO4m and Euro 5 will be done by this year. Most of the capex spent. Including typical capex works, next year capex probably 200m round there bah.

===
stockraider It is time to move on from refinery stocks loh...!!

Petron had not embark into Euro 4 & 5 upgrades...that will cost at least Rm 1.5b loh....!!

Very costly mah...!!
10/02/2020 6:27 PM
Sslee Dear Choivo,
Stock take is at 31th Dec 2019. And the price at 31th Dec 2019 is the inventory unit price to calculate the inventory value at financial end 31th Dec 2019.
10/02/2020 7:26 PM
Choivo Capital Haha, i have feeling this is not the case. Especially since the price of fuel dropped by 20%. It would no longer be true & fair.

Maybe things have changed since i stopped being an auditor 2 years ago. Or the audit partner for this job is ok with that.

===
Dear Choivo,
Stock take is at 31th Dec 2019. And the price at 31th Dec 2019 is the inventory unit price to calculate the inventory value at financial end 31th Dec 2019.
10/02/2020 10:20 PM
stockraider Rm 200m for Euro 4 & 5 conversion too little mah....!!

Expect capex of rm 1.5b min to comply with regulation loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 10, 2020 6:27 PM | Report Abuse

EURO4m and Euro 5 will be done by this year. Most of the capex spent. Including typical capex works, next year capex probably 200m round there bah.

===
stockraider It is time to move on from refinery stocks loh...!!

Petron had not embark into Euro 4 & 5 upgrades...that will cost at least Rm 1.5b loh....!!

Very costly mah...!!
10/02/2020 10:23 PM
Sslee Haha
This is what auditor told me how they get quarter open stock value and closing stock value. At stock cut day and those purchase contract for and on shipment also consider as stock.
10/02/2020 10:29 PM
Choivo Capital Read properly raider.

They spend quite abit over the last 2-3 years d.
10/02/2020 10:37 PM
Sslee Dear Stockraider,
https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Minutes-of-the-60th-Annual-General-Meeting-of-Petron-Malaysia-Refining-Marketing-Bhd-June-13-2019.pdf
The total amount would be about USD120 million for the whole diesel hydro-treater project and approximately USD60 million for the marine/jetty facility. The amount allocated for the refinery upgradeis approximately RM500 million for 2019. Of this,a substantial part will go to the diesel hydro-treater project.Another major project that is also being managed in parallel at the refinery is the new jetty and marine pipeline project that involves upgrade ofthe marinepipeline andadditional storage tanks. With the business expansionand the need for additional importation of finished products, a new facility is requiredto ensure efficiency and reduce demurrage costs caused by shipping related delays at the current jetty.

Petron is just a pure refining using low sulfur crude where the Mogas already complied with Euro 4M. Petron only need to invest in diesel hydro-treater to meet Euro 5 diesel.

HRC with Long Residue Catalytic Cracker Unit to crack long chain to mogas and this mogas is high in sulfur. Hence HRC needs:
1. 2018 major turnaround
2. Project Atlas 2
3. Project E4M
4. Board of Directors approved an increase in funding of USD76 million for the Euro 4M upgrade Euro 5M Mogas project (“Project”), bringing the total investment to USD211 million +/- 10%.
5. USD66.40 million for the H2GEN Project
6. CAR Project is estimated at USD48 million

Thank you
P/S: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
You can check above link for crack spread. HRC breakeven crack spread is USD3 per barrel (include interest cost)
10/02/2020 11:28 PM
Outliar If you’re so sure they will make a loss in the last quarter why don’t just sell and buy back agin?
10/02/2020 11:45 PM
stockraider Actually after carefully studying Petron left, right & center...Raider find that Choivo is right, Petron is indeed very efficient in their operations loh....!!

Petron can be a potential bluechip stock for your portfolio loh...!!
10/02/2020 11:53 PM
Sslee Dear Outliar,
Refer:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-02-10-story-h1483734883-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Petron_Malaysia_Refining_Marketing_Berhad_PETRONM_3042_.jsp
What Choivo say is Petron retail profit margin is fixed by Government price mechanism except Blaze 100 EURO 4M better margin
FUEL PRICE PER LITRE 01 - 07 FEB 2020
PETRON BLAZE 100 EURO 4M: RM 2.88
PETRON BLAZE 97 EURO 4M: RM2.41
PETRON BLAZE 95 EURO 4M: RM2.08
PETRON TURBO DIESEL EURO 5: RM2.28
PETRON DIESEL MAX: 2.18

The refinery will depend on crack spread, crude oil price trend and USD to MYR exchange rate trend as this trend will result in stock/Inventory loss or gain.

For Q4 2019 I should think the result is positive. For Q1 2020 so far Stock/Inventory losses because of crude price drop and weakening of MYR against USD likely cannot cover by the crack spread margin hence refinery result is negative. The question will be how much losses suffer by refinery and can that losses cover by the retail sales guarantee profit?

Choivo is in love with the owner Ramon Ang who as the Chinese like to say "出淤泥而不染". Said in english, is represents the lotus flower which grown from the mud and yet blossoms white. As oppose to me hate the China owner of HRC. He is a crook.

Note: Petron Q4 2018 loss quarter because Oct, Nov and DEC 2018 crack spread is Oct +6 than negative for Nov and Dec.

Thank you
P/S: Choivo just want to frighten you with Q4 2019 loss quarter so that he can collect cheap cheap from you. So don’t sell cheap to him.
11/02/2020 8:52 AM
Choivo Capital I'm stupid that way :).

If you're not disciplined in the small things, its hard to be disciplined in the important things. Every time you do something for trading purposes, you are training that part of your brain.

Which depending on your purpose, is a good or bad thing.

Also i think its priced in?

But yeah, the straight answer is, im stupid and illogical that way.

=====
Outliar If you’re so sure they will make a loss in the last quarter why don’t just sell and buy back agin?
10/02/2020 11:45 PM
11/02/2020 9:33 AM
Choivo Capital Well Sslee,

This is something i hope im wrong about! As i've already bought up the last of my position yesterday (just a little bit more).
11/02/2020 10:03 AM
sheldon I feel the earth move under my feet!
14/02/2020 3:14 PM
Outliar Choivo's recent timing has been impeccable
14/02/2020 3:24 PM
stockraider Can i advice U ??

I agree with sslee after much due diligence ,that HRC is not forthright in its dealing, operations and disclosures, thats why capex way exceeded budget and profitably fell short of target loh..!!

Current price Rm 3.88 looks cheap, but better join brother Jon Choivo buy Petron mah...!!

Yes u pay more premium for Petron, but u r paying for a better manage company, stronger balance sheet, better dividend & profit and u r buying into a more balance company with Petrol station & refinery mah...!!

I think Petron may can even give a very good run for the money against PETDAG and SHELL, as Petron being no 3 boys has gained mkt share with the latest record of 21% mkt share mah !

U r safer with Petron Petrol station and Refinery compare to pure Hengyuan Refinery loh...!!

For those hoping Hengyuan can get back to Rm 19.00, i think u should put your dream in Petron better mah...!!

Posted by pang72 > Feb 14, 2020 5:24 PM | Report Abuse

Why Eveeyone grab on rm19 but nobody grab in rm3 88?
15/02/2020 3:54 PM
Alex™ Guess who's backkk
15/02/2020 4:37 PM
Alex™ petronm major customer siapa?
15/02/2020 5:07 PM
Alex™ aiyo why petronm balance sheet so weak already? last time 2017 not like this. trade payable manyak oh...can pay or not?
15/02/2020 5:07 PM
Alex™ oil still dropping, petronm commodity guy gooding in lock good price or not?
15/02/2020 5:08 PM
Alex™ oil drop = inventory lost
15/02/2020 5:08 PM
Alex™ oil drop = lower revenue
15/02/2020 5:09 PM
Alex™ kantoi revolving credit, 390k burn just like that?
15/02/2020 5:11 PM
Alex™ 109m lawsuit appeal
15/02/2020 5:12 PM
Alex™ ok la if i buy now, sell rm6 ok? i aim 20% only
15/02/2020 5:12 PM
LA777 Buy Hengyuan.
17/02/2020 8:24 AM
Jokers2020 Rotational play..after HY push up will come Petronm..
17/02/2020 8:38 AM
Panorama1 What’s happening to Petron today ? Anybody has any news ? I have not been monitoring this counter as already maximized position in a Single counter & fully invested at average cost of below 5 :-)
17/02/2020 9:39 AM
Shinnzaii Track gain from brent rise...most of the QR out by this week and next week onward...hehe
17/02/2020 9:44 AM


 

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