Highlights
KLSE: TOPGLOV (7113)       TOP GLOVE CORP BHD MAIN : Health Care
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
5.29   -0.01 (0.19%)  5.26 - 5.45  13,208,800
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  13 people like this.
 
jjasonlim Technical rebound only, big chance to run?
21/02/2020 11:45 AM
Up_down What if the market sentiments are moving in the opposite way? Getting more infection cases announced by the area out of China ie Korea, Japan... It could be hard to contain the share price if given rebound is imminent. Any plan B to minimize loses by IBs?
21/02/2020 12:39 PM
Up_down Extracted:

The banks only make money from structured warrants upon their expiry, because banks will never know whether they can keep the initial money, or need to fork out additional cash to compensate the holders.

Upon expiry:
If settlement price (i.e last 5 days trading price) < strike price, the bank keeps all the money that they received at the time they issued. The warrant holder lost their bet.
If settlement price > strike price, then the bank calculate how much to compensate.

Calculation of settlement amount = [(Settlement price - Strike price)/Conversion ratio] x no. of Warrants

Conclusion: If I were a bank, I would issue warrants if I think that:
1) prices are increasing now (so that it can attract losers to buy my warrants)
2) prices are expected to drop before expiry (so that the losers will cry and I keep the money).
3) malaysians have not yet realised that they are being cheated by such genius products.
4) I can manipulate the price of the mother share during the last 5 days, if I need to.

From this perspective, it's not clear whether banks will goreng the counter so that they can let go of their warrants. But it is clear that they will "hope" for the price to go below the strike price upon expiry. *And their hope often come true.

they will hedge the warrants with the mother share, if they're risk averse, they can hedge 100% of the warrants they issued (eg sell 1mil warrants, buy 1mil shares(if converstion ratio 1:1)), but if they think the warrants goin to drop kao2, they might just hedge 20%, depending on traders

likewise, they can also hedge via back-to-back warrants with another counterparty(ie another bank) to cover the unhedged warrants
21/02/2020 12:46 PM
rayloo Tg for the exract. The last 5 days price is averagely or the price on the 5th day ?
21/02/2020 1:39 PM
rayloo It also means that if the IBs lose big time by end of the month, they will buy and push up to cover the loss
21/02/2020 1:45 PM
Dave Jet Your analysis much better than those always talk potong kuku...
21/02/2020 2:23 PM
rayloo Extract:

How is the warrant’s settlement price determined?

Single stock warrants: for warrants over shares, the settlement price of a warrant is calculated by using the average closing price of the shares for the five (5) Market Days prior to the expiry date.
21/02/2020 2:26 PM
rayloo I been accumulating Top Glove stocks, but this time I miss the warrant part.
21/02/2020 2:31 PM
Up_down Closing Price: The VWAP of TOPGLOV Shares (subject to any adjustment as may be necessary to reflect any capitalisation, rights issue, distribution or others) for the 5 Market Days prior to and including the Market Day immediately before the Expiry Date.
21/02/2020 2:57 PM
rayloo Means what ?
21/02/2020 3:01 PM
rayloo Closing Price : The average daily VWAP of TOPGLOV Shares (subject to any adjustment as
may be necessary to reflect any capitalisation, rights issue, distribution or others)
for five (5) Market Days prior to and including the Market Day immediately before
the Expiry Date

The key part is ""average daily"
21/02/2020 3:04 PM
rayloo For CW-55

Cash settlement only
The TOPGLOV CW gives the Holder the right to receive from CIMB Bank within 7
market days from the Expiry Date, the Cash Settlement Amount, which shall be
calculated as set out below
21/02/2020 3:08 PM
no buy no feel i will tank 5.3
21/02/2020 4:25 PM
rayloo You start pick up at 5.3 ? So fast ?
21/02/2020 4:31 PM
Up_down It seems like IBs are working so hard to churn out volume pressing the price down further. Wait for them to close the gap-up 5.1 next week.
21/02/2020 4:55 PM
rayloo I will start picking from RM4.8, batch by batch
21/02/2020 5:00 PM
rayloo Really is a doji ending.....
21/02/2020 5:01 PM
rayloo Expect EPF more accumulation announcement
21/02/2020 5:04 PM
Dave Jet Very unlikely to hit RM 4 .80 average last 5 days.
21/02/2020 5:43 PM
pang72 Disappointed!
21/02/2020 5:45 PM
rayloo After today, I have started to have doubt of everything.
21/02/2020 5:59 PM
messi88 Wow so darkness. Whatever u all said is proving correct
21/02/2020 6:03 PM
Dave Jet So be calm,dun panic sell. Just waiting share price up3 after coming quarter report release on March.
21/02/2020 6:12 PM
no buy no feel can IB press it further ? other glove ady stabilise , kossan has good QR
21/02/2020 6:12 PM
Dave Jet Dun be too naive, too innocent..
21/02/2020 6:15 PM
rayloo IB only press TG and Supermx so far, supermx has no more CW expiring in Feb. So it is safe.

As for others, I suppose is from panic sales.
21/02/2020 6:33 PM
Up_down Hold for upcoming QR announcement in mid Mar 20, mid Jun 20 & mid Sep 20....not for the next 5 few days. lol
21/02/2020 6:37 PM
rayloo IBs teach us golden cross share price up, death cross share price down. As a matter of fact, they are traning us to be raw meat to feed the sharks.
21/02/2020 6:38 PM
rayloo TG long term is very good, is correct to hold. The investment fund is to be spent, if to wair for 5 days the same amount of fund would return few more TG share, why not.
21/02/2020 6:59 PM
fightingdragons All the info about CW expiry dates and exercise price --- is that public info that one can research for (in future) or was it only released to public to scare more people into selling? Just thinking for future investment, how to anticipate these CW etc and where to research these info.
21/02/2020 7:15 PM
fightingdragons Also, any CW in March/April/May.........? :D
21/02/2020 7:15 PM
Trouble Huat topglove no show liao lo, aim other related for stimulus next week
21/02/2020 8:57 PM
pang72 Trouble to huat...

Yes! Another cut lose stock... By troble to Huat
21/02/2020 11:33 PM
jiunn ***USD RECORD HIGH!!! MYR TO 5,00 AGAIN WHEN PM LEFT END YRS??!!!


BUY BUY BUY HUAT HUAT AAARRRRR!!!!!


https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-records-new-2020-highs-above-9960-202002191501
22/02/2020 9:16 AM
selvanf1 South Korea cases spike: Cases have soared from 28 a week ago to at least 204. The latest cases are mainly centered around a religious group in the southern city of Daegu
22/02/2020 9:41 AM
selvanf1 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200221-sitrep-32-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=4802d089_2
22/02/2020 9:42 AM
selvanf1 34 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the US
22/02/2020 9:44 AM
Trouble Huat rouble to huat...

Yes! Another cut lose stock... By troble to Huat

i earn from idss oh. hw to cut lose if no up. haha
22/02/2020 10:26 AM
Joon Chan https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/22/epf-declares-545-dividend-rate-5-for-syariah

EPF dividend is out.

Assume IB are in cahoots. EPF won't buy, what they have massively sold.
They'll let them press down the price,

Then they'll buy their way back up.

You all know behind every call warrant, the hedge is either the underlying share, or a put warrant. Guess who buys the put warrant? =D
22/02/2020 1:24 PM
rayloo Not sure if this is worth to consider, the pattern ended last friday was not a doji but an inverted hammer, implying possible change of direction. If monday opens and closes higher than Friday price, the direction is confirm..

Technical is all about probability. Perhaps IBs purposely drew that to lure technical devotees....

Or IBs no bulets and gives up...ha ha
22/02/2020 4:49 PM
michaelgohmox Monday likely will go up given the spread of Wuhan virus
22/02/2020 5:38 PM
sammofee i have to agree with rayloo. If closing higher on monday the direstion is confirmed.
22/02/2020 8:01 PM
Joon Chan It's easy and not expensive to push the price down.

End of the day they sell a big batch super fast to bring the price down quickly, by clearing a small Q of bids.

Then say it reaches 5.0, then Left Hand of Bank will fill up buys, 4.99,5.0
and right hand will fill up sells at 5.01,5.02. And it'll be like for 40,000 lots. How u gonna change the price?

and they will bounce 1 lot between each other at rocket speed. Generating volume, locking in the VWAP for the day, and ensuring you Q forever.
22/02/2020 8:08 PM
pang72 ...... 5.00 coming..

Many trouble to huat!!
22/02/2020 8:16 PM
rayloo C58 just expired on 20/2/20 with exercise price RM5.5, average 5 days RM5.58....

Next week 3 CWs RM4.5, RM4.68 and RM4.88
22/02/2020 8:24 PM
rayloo Joon Chan thanks for the input
22/02/2020 8:26 PM
rayloo But IBs cannot keep pressing forever ? From now on almost every month has 1 CW to exercise ranging RM4.5 to RM5.18. Only Dec has above RM6.

Or they press because this Feb alone has 4 CWs to exercise ?
22/02/2020 8:41 PM
Joon Chan no la, they buy enough at the low price to cover their exposure laa...
22/02/2020 9:05 PM
Joon Chan and then jack up the other warrants, so the premium is stupid high. suddenly market maker also very dry..
22/02/2020 9:08 PM
rayloo So, they always win..and yet pay us 5.4% only ?
22/02/2020 9:18 PM


 

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