Investing: Know Everything

Why Have Long-term Investing became a Worse Choice? (为什么长期投资不被看好了?)

YOLO123
Publish date: Sun, 06 Dec 2020, 12:31 PM
YOLO123
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We can see that most people now play the market in this way, when they see an upcoming trend, they buy the stocks, set the cut-loss point and set a few target prices. When the share price hit either of the cut-loss point or one of the target price, they will sell the stock. If this method works 7 out of 10 times, then they will be able to be profitable throughout the process.

 

With the example I mentioned earlier, that is the exact reason why most people think long-term investing is a much worse choice compared to short-term trading. Let say long-term investor bought Stock A on RM1.00 and the price shoot up to RM2.00 in a week, traders will eventually sell their shares, and the share price may be back to RM1.00. In this scenario, traders are able to earn a lot, but investors earn literally nothing, but the joy when the share price goes up and the disappointment when the share price dropped back down. Hence, that is why the number of traders has been increasing for the past 50 years.

 

However, even short-term traders are able to earn 20%-100% of profit in short period of time, the one who laugh to the end will be those who tends to hold for long term. These so called “stubborn” long-term investors are able to enjoy fold after fold of compound earning if a correct stock was chosen few years back.

 

On the contrary, traders can argue that why the need to wait few years when you can earn 50% in a week? Indeed, a successful trader is able to earn a lot via multiple transaction, but there are two weaknesses to it. One is which they will not be able to buy a stock at low price as they will only buy a stock when the timing is there. Secondly, their risk has been significantly increased since the margin of safety has become smaller due to the rise in stock price.

 

If traders are keen to take these high risks for high rewards, by all means, go ahead. However, do remember that investing is not about “high risk high reward”, or “go big or go home”. Investing is all about rational, patience and risk management, a single element missing from it may cause you to lose money.

 

In short, short-term traders do in fact able to earn a lot of money in a short period of time, but long-term investors are able to earn much more over time. However, long-term investing does not necessary became the worse choice, it is more to the personal preference, on whether which method suit you the most.

 

我们可以看到现在的人都在以这样的方式在股市打转,当他们看到什么板块有趋势时,那么便会买那其中的股票,然后提前设定好止损点和几个目标价。当股价达到止损点或其中一个目标价时,便把股票卖出。如果这个方法是在十次里面成功七次的话,那么他们便可以从中获益。

 

单单是用我刚刚举的例子,就正好可以证明为什么现在的人觉得长期投资会比短期交易更来得吃亏。我们可以再举例,长期投资者在RM1.00时买了A股,然后因为趋势的关系,股价在一个星期里面被拉升到RM2.00。自然而然,交易者也会在赚到过后卖完他们的股票,而股价也默默地跌回RM1.00。从中,我们就可以看到交易者普遍都会稍微有赚幅,但却完全没给投资者带来好处,有也只是股价飙升带来的短暂快乐和股价跌的时候所带来的失望感。正因如此,交易者的人数在过去的50年里不断增加。

 

但是,尽管短期交易者能够在短时间内赚到20%-100%,但笑到最后的还会是长期投资者。这些被喻为“固执”的长期投资者如果在几年前买到了好股,便会很大机会享有数倍的回酬。

 

相对的,短期交易者也可以反驳说当我们能够在一个星期里面赚取50%的回酬,为什么要等一个股几年?这个的确是事实,交易者可以在很多轮的交易里面赚取一定的回酬,但会有两个弱点。其一就是交易者几乎不可能买在低点,因为他们会等到趋势来到了才进场。其二便是他们的风险会被大大提高,这是因为股价的上升会造成他们有较少的安全边际。

 

如果短期交易者所图的是高风险高回酬,那么便没问题。但是,我们需要注意的是投资不是“高风险高回酬”或者“要嘛不干,要嘛就要干大的”,而是理性,耐心和风险管理,而少了其中任何的元素也会造成亏损。

 

总结,短期交易者确实可以在短期里面赚到很多,但长期投资者可以在更长的时间里赚取更多的赚益。但其实,长期投资不一定是两个里面更不被看好的那一方,这也必须看个人的选择,哪种更适合你。

 

 

 

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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 4 of 4 comments

godhand

hahaha. ur telling me u can time the market like a god. what if u have millions at stake 1 mistake will cause u everything.

2020-12-06 13:42

YOLO123

well, i myself don't think someone can time the market at all. Just saying that most people nowadays prefer trading more rather than investing. Still, investing shall be the go-to if someone is aiming for longer term profit

2020-12-06 13:47

stockraider

Short term u can time the market.

long term u time cannot loh!!

2020-12-06 13:48

Keyman188

Keyman188 perceptions are...

Smart money - market timing

Retirement money - time in the market

2020-12-06 13:58

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