(May 24): Talks over forming Thailand’s next government are well into their second week and there’s still no sign that a pro-democracy coalition led by Move Forward will garner the support it needs to ensure that Pita Limjaroenrat becomes the nation’s 30th prime minister.

Despite downplaying some controversial campaign promises and cobbling together an alliance of eight parties that commands a majority in the House of Representatives, Pita’s coalition still doesn’t have the 376 parliamentary seats needed to bypass a 250-member, military-appointed Senate that also gets to vote on the next premier.

The uncertainty has Thailand’s markets and global investors on edge, with the main stock index continuing to languish as Asia’s worst performer so far this year and the baht slumping to a two-month low. The currency has lost more than 2% since a post-election bounce a day after the May 14 vote.

While the 42-year-old Pita has shown his political acumen in winning the vote and building a coalition, he’s up against a royalist establishment and military that may be unwilling to see him come to power. Rivals in other parties are also watching to see if he falters.

The Election Commission has to release official results confirming 95% of lower house seats within 60 days following election, and then the House has to convene within 15 days after that. But there’s no time limit for when the next leader has to be picked.

Tentative schedule for government formation:

• July 13: Election Commission certifies results
• July 20: Lawmakers report to parliament
• July 25: Election of house speaker
• Aug 3: Selection of prime minister
• Aug 10: Cabinet formation
• Aug 11: Prime minister and cabinet takes office
• NOTE: Law Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam has said the time line isn’t final and is subject to changes

Until there is a new prime minister, the caretaker government is led by Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the general who led the 2014 coup and has held power since. If no party can win majority support, he could remain in place for months to come.

It’s worth noting that in 2019, though the election was held on March 24, the premier was selected only on June 5 with a cabinet unveiled on July 11.

With that background, here are some scenarios that could unfold:

Pita wins

The most straightforward path for Move Forward is to either win over enough senators to make up his coalition’s shortfall — about 63 seats currently — or form an alliance with the third-place Bhumjaithai Party, which won 70 seats in the election. Neither will be easy.

No one knows whether a chunk of the military-appointed Senate can be persuaded to vote for the opposition parties that dominated the vote. At least one senator, Wanchai Sornsiri, said he’ll vote for whoever the coalition nominates, adding that many of his colleagues are undecided.

“I believe each senator is mature and isn’t stubborn, but each has their own thought,” Wanchai said.

Yet for Pita to win over enough senators, he may have to further soften his pledge to ease up on Article 112, a law that mandates as many as 15 years in jail for each charge of insulting top royals, including King Maha Vajiralongkorn. While changing the lese majeste law is popular with some voters, it’s a step too far for many parties and the establishment.

Dialing back his vows to change Article 112 could also unlock support from Bhumjaithai, giving Pita a parliamentary majority. But Move Forward’s vow to put cannabis back on the list of controlled narcotics — reversing a decriminalisation policy championed by Bhumjaithai — may make such an alliance impossible.

The conservative Democracy Party that won 24 seats in the lower house is scheduled to meet Wednesday morning to elect a new leader. It may also discuss whether or not to support Pita, according to the party.

Pro-democracy split

If talks drag out, Move Forward’s coalition partner and second-place finisher Pheu Thai could end its support for Pita’s bid and try to form a government led by one of its three candidates for the post — including the daughter of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

As the party’s principal backer, Thaksin made clear that Pheu Thai would not support any attempt to reform the lese majeste law. That makes Pheu Thai a more palatable choice for conservative groups and the Senate, even after governments led by Thaksin and his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, were ousted by the military in separate coups.

“In the eyes of conservatives, Pheu Thai has become the lesser of two evils,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a research fellow at Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

The Harvard-educated Pita could also see his candidacy ended if allegations that he violated election rules by holding shares in a defunct media company lead to him losing his parliamentary seat. Pita has said he only manages the family estate that has the shares.

Pheu Thai “stands to gain the most if Pita is disqualified or if the coalition fails to take shape” under Move Forward’s leadership, Napon said.

Among Pheu Thai’s prime minister candidates are Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, and real estate magnate Srettha Thavisin.

Minority government, military coup

Another scenario involves the Senate backing a minority government led either by Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul or one of the military-backed parties. But that would risk sparking protests similar to those that broke out in 2020 after Move Forward’s predecessor, the Future Forward party, was disbanded.

Since the Senate’s ability to vote for the prime minister expires next year, any minority government is at risk of falling in a no-confidence vote. To guard against that, it’s possible that the establishment may petition the courts to disband Move Forward or Pheu Thai as what happened in the past to their predecessors, using the push to amend Article 112 as pretext.

However, any move to ban the nation’s popular politicians — or stage yet another military coup — may lead to massive demonstrations. And this time the risks are even higher for the royalist establishment, as protesters have recently been much bolder in directly targeting the monarchy than in previous years.

While the possibility of another coup can never be ruled out in Thailand, experts rank this as the least likely option, for now.

“I think all parties want to avoid this,” said Tamara Loos, a professor of history and Thai studies at Cornell University. “The conservative political parties, military and monarch have to come to terms with this changed political landscape.”