DOW drop 420 points, at one point was down 520 points. BAC and Citi down 6% while VXX up 20%. Gold shooting above 1800 level, at 1824 now.

Goldman Sachs(GS) has been down from USD170(in Jan 2011) to the current USD113 level. It has confirmed the bear-grip. Is US collapsing? Credit Suisse (CS) down 9% yesterday, and has dropped 40% from ots USD40+ levels.

We might see some selling later but no buying yet as we might see more selling next week. I will clear some the remaining of my HapSeng-wa to remain in cash position again. Hence, I will need to cut-off most of my positions and preparing for the worst. Please DO NOT read these lines and panic-selling your positions. We have different views, ok?

I do believe the sell-down is not over yet. With so much of uncertainties ... it is better to be safe. What can one do in such market sentiments and volatility? Yes, short the markets or many are going into gold now. For me, I will want to buy some put-warrants. There are a few put-warrants attached to some KLSE's counters but it is not popular, not known and abandoned. So, I shall move to HSI-put. But, which one to punt?

MSM-ca : Bought at 0.21 and 0.205 done, so time to exit with small-losses.

Dialog proposed its first cash call from its shareholders to raise up to RM638 million under a rights issue with free warrants, on the basis of two rights shares and one warrant for every 10 shares held.

The corporate exercise would involve a renounceable rights issue of up to 398.73 million new shares of 10 sen each with 199.36 million free detachable warrants.

'Based on the indicative issue of RM1.60, the corporate exercise would raise up to RM638 million,' it said.

Tenaga : May countinue to see selling as 'profit warning' and 'dividends' reductions will give investors move out of Tenaga. Someone asked if Tenaga is a buy at RM5.80 level yesterday, could I really answer such question? Closed at 5.73, we expect it to pull down KLCI as we are expecting a huge slide today(yet again). Checking her at RM5.50 and RM5.10 levels.

CIMB Research downgrades Tenaga to Neutral
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 19 August 2011 08:23

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has downgraded TENAGA NASIONAL BHD  from Trading Buy to Neutral and reduced the target price from RM7.60 to RM6.77.

TEH : Please DO NOT read those brokers' target prices to BELIEVE it is a good buy. At RM5.60 level now, even at RM6.77 target price, that is still a huge upside for one-year forecast. Please understand that those reports are for illustration purposes. It could be down-graded or upgraded again-n-again, playing on different stories(they will write what YOU want to hear). Remembering those get caught at RM7 when it gapped up and huge buying volumes seen(due to tariff hike story which has been played for YEARS now). When they want to upgrade it, they will tell you the positive stories of tariff-hike again, USD weakening again(as if you and me dont know. Haha), price of coal-petrol stablised(haha), election is coming ... this GLC will be used to pull KLCI up ... or better still KLCI will see new high at 1680. Ooppss ... recently downgraded AGAIN.


The research house said on Friday, Aug 19 that Tenaga's comment that gas supply has not recovered was a negative surprise as it had said during its 3QFY8/11 results that supply would recover.

'After speaking with management, we cut FY11-12 core net profit by 13%-15% and FY11-12 DPS by 12%-13% as we were too optimistic even after slashing our numbers after the 3Q results.

'Our target falls from RM7.60 to RM6.77 due to lower earnings and the lowering of our target P/BV from 1.4x to 1.25x as we apply a higher risk premium,' it said.

CIMB Research said it downgraded Tenaga from Trading Buy to NEUTRAL. Although valuations are attractive and gas supply should eventually recover, this is offset by the lack of a robust cost pass-through mechanism.

TEH : In such market uncertainties, valuations could not attract investors to buy their stories. Unless you are a looong term investor, planning to buy more IF market really collapse while holding to her for dividends and waiting for those positive news to be played again. RISK appetite and TIME frame becoming very important in our stock-selction.

'While cost sharing with Petronas is possible, there is no definite timeline. We recommend a switch to Petronas Gas,' it said.

KimLun : Out some good news today but with such market sentiments, I do not see any reversal. It is obviously downtrending. As traders, we should buy only uptrending stocks. Tho I do go for short-term technical rebounds, I am cleared off most of them(too early, indeed --- kiasi).

Technical rebound : Yes, stocks are overly sold in extreme level, it may attracts some bottom-fishing. But, due to overall BAD technical landscape, it could not form a higher-high ... and continue its downtrend. Hence, the rebound is short-lived. Many stocks have rebounded, technically, from RSI below 20 to above 30 now. Yes, today's selldown will confirm that it is merely technical-rebound and down we go further away ... that explains why I have sold most of my positions when I bought during the meltdown in markets(KLCI down 70 points  and HSI down 1500 then).

9.25 am : KLCI down 25 points, recovering to -20points.

HS-wa : Cut her off at 0.460 done.

MSM-ca : Still queueing to clear at 0.20 not done.

Double-K : KimLun and Kulim are green in my list now. It went into red just now. Datuk-K? I dont know about that. I think I heard of Datuk-K or Datuk-T but I do not follow news, so I dont know what they are related to.

11.00 am : KLCI at negative 17 points. HSI down 500+ points. So, I am out of of KLSE and HKSE too. Holding on to SLV.

BRDB-wa : Up to 1.40 now, from the point I was watching at 0.90 a week or so ago. Incredible run in the bearish market.

Property-stocks : This is cyclical and we might see the coming end of propety boom in Malaysia. It might takes 2-3 years for many to start selling their property(hence, property stocks) at cheaper price. The recent crazy BUYING of properties in Malaysia, especially in Klang Valley(and Penang) creating a mini-bubble. No hard landing yet as it is MINI.

My two brothers recently bought their properties too. The youngest one went for RM350k condo at Jalan Ipoh and my younger one bought a landed property at Taman Desa for a price of ... err ... RM920k. He said his neighbour bought a month earlier and it was ONLY RM880k. Serious ... because another house nearby sold at RM1.1m. Yup ... the price to pay for properties in KL is ... crazy!!

While I went for 'cheaper' apt at RM160k(below so-called current market value of RM180k), I still feel that I should wait for the current prices to ease and better still ... many start auctioning their properties!! Lelong time is the best time to grab and I am planning for that in 3 years time.


2.35 pm : I am home early today, to rest. I do have a trading-class with my 8-turtles tonight. Wish me luck!! Haha.

Geely : Touched a 52-week los at 2.31 this morning. Dived from HKD5 to current, PE still at a high at 11. You mean those bought at HKD5 willing to pay high premium for her at that point of time? This is trading, not investing.

Investing vs Trading : I will speak about this simple topic tonight because knowing and understanding the differences(pro and cons) is very important.

Tenaga : At 5.57 now ...

KLCI down 20 points and HSI down 580 points. Not alarming enough to buy.

Top Losers : PPB, Genting,UMW,  TopGlove, PChem, CIMB, MISC, Calsberg, AirPort, BStead, AMMB, Tenaga ...

So, there are many more good counters losing more than Tenaga today. Tenaga is losing 15-cents at the moment.

Warrants : If u need to see more evidences of weaknesses, check out some warrants prices. It has been a long time that I never see such prices ... at this low. You need to have followed since 2008 crash to understand.

AnnJoo-wb which was traded below 20cents when I first bought in April 2009. It shot up to at peak of 0.90+(if I m not mistaken). Then the next high at 0.80 level ... today, it is at 0.45 and barely traded. AnnJoo, the mommy traded above RM3, then hanging at at 2.80 before recent dive. It is at 2.50 level today. Cheap? It came up from RM1 to shot to RM3, ok?

WCT-wb : Was at 20cents too, for those newbies. Yes, below 20cents ... will you buy?

SPSetia-wb : I have shared this story ... my friend SL bought her at 0.40, sold her at 0.60 ... happy treating me dinner. But, SPSetia shot all the way to RM2+. Look at her today(re-adjusted since) at 0.75 level. Cheap?

IJM-wc : When I share about her with my first batch of turtles, it was at 2.80 level. Today ... er ... at 1.95 level. Cheap? Wait till you see cheaper prices.

MMCCorp : Do you know that I bought MMCCorp at RM1.25 before, caught a knife as it dived further to be below RM1? Yes, the cheap MMC at 2.60 level now. Cheap?

I could give countless examples of 'cheap stocks' then. Today, it is not cheap-la but tradable. When we said CHEAP, I hope we mean valuation rather than the price. Just as the analyst will place 12-18xPE or 1.5-2.5 P/B and such, that is why some target price is at high-level. Ok?

Yes, I will like to bring the issue of trading vs investing to my turtles to understand the different mentality in play. In mu opinion, a person needs to be in the market for more than 10 years to understand the cycles and such. I have another 6-7 years to go ... in my learning. Seriously, I told everyone not to call me sifu(LMAO) as I am not. I am novice, still losing money but learning ...

HapSeng-wa : I may say I am lucky ... lucky to buy at 0.41 sold 0.45, lucky to buy back at 0.435 to sell at 0.49, lucky to buy back at 0.49 to sell at 0.51. As you could see, my LUCK is running out. I grabbed back at 0.47-0.48 done(as I went to airport) and failed to clear. So, today this morning, I have this CUT-off mentality. I was lucky to clear her for small losses as it is at 0.435 now, which might be a huge loss, then. We do need LUCK if we are punting into such ... as I believe many are playing with her too, being one of the most active new baby.

Silver : Going above 41 level now as gold continue to move higher. Money from stocks moving into gold? Gold a bubble?


TEH