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Supermax : It is back in my focus as it is breaking RM3 today. The last time I wrote about her was my old-childhood friend, KC, bought her at RM5 because it was 'cheap'. Her friend working with Supermax said that it is a good buy at RM5 then. Mind you, market was still bullish but glove-stocks continue their down trend. So, she bought at RM5.00, it dived and moving lower each day ...
I asked her to WAIT and to BUY more(instead of Khee San - I never look into KheeSan until that day!!) of Supermax. At RM4, I asked her to average down. I knew I took a very HIGH risk advising her because she is just another aunties in market who knew NOTHING about stock-markets and such. So... luckily Supermax rebounded and I asked her to sell RM4.80. She has average at RM4.50. And LUCKILY after Rm4.80, it reversed!! Arrghh ... I always remember this trade!! I was so nervous!
Today, Supermax at RM3 now. Recently I read that OSK's asking us to be defensive and Supermax is being mentioned. Arrghh ... Supermax is still a good company but the 'trend' is no longer there, see? This is market ... follow the trend ... low could go lower, cheap could go cheaper. Collect her when NO ONE wants her ... as one fine day, glove-stocks will recover and Suermax will be superman again ... wish I could fly.
Supermax Corporation ' Losing its grip in the 2Q. Supermax's 1H11 net profit was below expectations, making up 30% of our full-year forecast and 29% of consensus estimates. The poor results were due to
higher input costs and overcapacity. As expected, no dividends were declared. We now slash our FY11-13 EPS numbers by 13-26% as we were
overoptimistic about Supermax's ability to pass on costs and maintain margins. Supermax has put its Glove City project on hold, which we believe curbs its growth prospects. As a result, we raise our discount to Top Glove's 13.1x benchmark P/E from 20% to 25%. Our target price falls from RM4.75 to RM3.64, prompting a
downgrade of Supermax from Buy to HOLD. While
valuations are cheap and input costs have moderated, this is offset by a lack of catalysts and lower growth prospects. We
recommend Kossan for its balanced product mix.
Source : Taken from CIMB
Note : This is post no 1700.
TEH