My Trading Adventure

Are we still in bear-rally?

CP TEH
Publish date: Tue, 18 Oct 2011, 06:46 AM
CP TEH
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All the writings in this weblog are mainly for PLEASURE reading purposes. I am in NO position to recommend a call(BUY/SELL). Please check with those know-hows before you make a decision. Yes, I am just a learner, with only five years experiences in KLSE. So, please BEAR with me.

KLCI : UP 10% or more than 100 points now. Do you still stick to your view of below 1,400 level by year end or suddenly change your market outlooks(again and again) to above 1,600 now. THINK.

DOW down 250points ... ouch!! That will give many excuses to take profits after such a bullish run. Today, it will be all in red again ... so, I am wearing my very red shirt. Hehe.



Construction : Up 17%. Easy to read ... overbought. Today, we shall see first red-histogram la. Then, selling coming tmr and more in coming days!! The correction could be short and seen as healthy for the current sharp reversal to turn into uptrending. Yes, when I write something like this on the surface, some could understand 'deeper' than just mere words but some don't even get it!!

News : The construction of MRT will start by February 2012. The first two packages of the elevated civil works and another two packages for the stations are to be opened for tender in early September 2011. Early indications are that contractors namely IJM Corp, WCT Bhd, Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd, Mudajaya Corp Bhd have pre-qualified to bid for the elevated portion.

News : In the coming months (Sept 2011 & Beyond), more new announcements involving developments in IDR, including a thriving central business district, are to be revealed. IRDA expects 2012 to be the year where Iskandar really takes off ' UEM Land, Ekovest, Tebrau, Dijaya, MPC, MMC, WCT, Bina Puri, KUB, MaSteel, Kim Lun, Sunway;

Now, while these news are NOT new, can you imagine the rebounds in these stocks!! KUB was in play, so logically looking into Masteel, right? KimLun too ... since when WCT wont be part of constructions going on in Malaysia? While I still like MudaJaya fundamentally, the current spike giving me excuses to take profits and stay aside. UEMLand ... hmm ... above RM2 now, you see. How about Sunway which re-listed(joined with SunCity to be bigger boys) has rebounded in such a rapid manner. Share-buybacks was at 1.95 level, it went further down ... and today, hmm ... still cheap(??) as it is still below its IPO value ...

These are NOT new ... it is speculative and many jumping in and out trying to catch the rally!! You see, as traders these news are NOISES. Of coz these news added fuel to some stocks to shoot for the sky(YTLLand in mind). If only market is rational, we all will not gain-lose much!! That is also what I am trying to talk about in my coming 'technical rebound' talk. Market is not rational, make your own senses, please.

Indicators ... these are something majority fail to understand!! All the noises about SMA vs EMA, Stochatics K-D or 3-5-5, also some amazing facts about RSI being used!! It is amazing ... as many REALLY believe more indicators is BETTER? How stupid our society could be? They are well-educated in thier fields BUT when it comes to market, they REFUSED to be educated and think rationally. Get educated, please. Make your trading as simple as possible that YOU PERSONALLY could understand. Hence, I am STILL not your technical geeks. I am a logical person ... trying to grasp and understand how markets work, how a stock prices moves. Then, plan to trade ... to see if I could find a slight 'edge' to profit. It is difficult(to me la ... to many, it looks so simple!!).

TEH : I am not refering anyone as stupid. Please DO NOT be too sensitive with my pleasure-reading blog or words la. Look ... when I said 'stupid' soceity, I mean ... the education world I am in. Yes, I am frustrated working in teaching-learning line(they called it education line) where teaching(REAL) is being pushed aside --- politics and office-politics come first. Then, marketing with good PR people come first ... who cares you are dedicated or good in your teaching?? That is my stupid society I am living with for years la. I was of coz one of the stupid people around. And at the moment, the STUPIEST of all. Haha. Sorry if I offend anyone simply because you rasa-pedas, ya. Leave this page, my advice. Thanks.
9.30 am : KLCI losing 15 points ...

10.00 am : KLCI down 18 points now ... Naim back to cost price!!

10.15 am : KLCI down 22 points ... and HSI down 500 points. Very volatile markets these days. One moment, you were hoping that this rally is the beginning of the bull(and many of your stocks will go back to your cost price --- breakeven), today you slight HOPE(as you only know how to use hope-analysis(HA) and market always go against you, somehow) .... is dashed.

But, you will tell yourself that you need to have HOPE that it will recover as it is dropping 20+ points, local funds will support KLCI or even use election-theme as your HOPE analysis. Whatever it takes, it should give you the optimism you needed ... to stay sane in markets. With HOPE, there comes GREED ... and today the FEAR in play. Well, after a few days in FEAR ... market starts to show some sign of rebound again ... and you shall be waiting for the 'perfect' timing to BUY into your fav-stocks(most probably the stock given by a fortune teller la). Then, as it REALLY moves higher, you will still wait for that 'lucky' day(could be defined as ... emm ... your birth-date or your wife's or kids') ... you feel lucky, of sudden.

So, there you are ... greed and fear in play without any COMMON human sense. Just merely emotions and some lucky-star to look for.

I joked before when someone ask me when I am going to sell one of my stock as he followed me!! I said ... depending on tmr morning's star la. He thought it is a candle-stick formation. But I was refering to the STAR up the sky ... haha ... I am such a sick-joker.

Anyway, as I always say ... market is a stressful place to be in. Putting some jokes could cheer you up ma. Then, u will know I am not so serious in writing this blog. I am only serious in my trading systems and plans!!

11.15 am : KLCI down 25 points with HSI down 630 points.

So, it is not surprising that the overdue correction is here. I am still waiting for that one-day 100 points dive!! Then, you should learn 'technical rebound' and have some quick good profits!! Just wait ...

11.25 am : KLCI down 28 points now. Last night on my FB, many talking about missing the boats or planes. Today, many might be relieved that they did not grab any yesterday!! WOW ... how fast the emotion changed again ... from ... hai-ya, I missed the XXX stocks la to ... phew, luckily I didnt grab that XXX at the level I wanted yesterday!! Yes, just in ONE DAY things change ... are you sure you know the direction of markets?

11.45 am : KLCI down 30 points now. Our hope is diminishing soon ... time to hibernate again as the bear is awaken?

1.05 pm : KLCI down 27 to close for lunch. While KLCI in such a red-zone, Harvest is still harvesting, Leader is taking the lead and HWGB giving us a ho-wah feeling. These are making gains ... KaramBunai continue to karam and Tanco is tanking? Hmm ... BKoon down 10% today due to profit-taking? Can buy ar?

1.55 pm : HSI down 660 points after such a strong rebound.

5.05 pm : Busy with classes. KLCI down 25 points. HSI down almost 800 points. OUCH.

ENG : Caught a knife today at 1.59 and 1.55. ouch.

9.20 pm : GOLD is dropping to 1640 level now.

Hot n Cold


Yes, that is how people play with market ... one moment HOT, next COLD. Today is a very cold as you could feel it chilling inside our bone. How do we control the temperature of the market?

TEH
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