i3gambler

Buy SAPNRG-WA instead of its Mother Share

i3gambler
Publish date: Thu, 14 Mar 2019, 10:25 AM

Before we target on any company warrants or structured warrants, we must look at the mother share first.

1) Uncle Cold Eyes said good about mother share SAPNRG, please search and read what he has written.

2) PNB / ASB has become biggest major shareholder after the right issue, they must perform or else very difficult for them to declare good dividend at end of the year.

Now, the next thing is to check its warrants.

One of the parameters to be input into the fair value calculator is the mother share's volatility.

See the following screen shot.

There are two methods of calculating the historical volatility.

1) Proper method, which we learn from our school, the normal practice is to calculate from the previous 90 trading, it is 48.2%.

2) Crude method, please search online to understand, I calculated for 5 different periods, took away the highest and get the average, it was 45.45%.

 

I use 2 calculators, 

1) Calculator download from bursamalaysia.com, I get the fair value for SAPNRG-WA is RM0.144.

2) My spreadsheet, I get RM0.146.

 

 

 

Conclusion:

1) I bought SAPNRG-WA instead of the mother share.

2) Trade at your own risk, please be reminded that the risk is very high.

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Be the first to like this. Showing 8 of 8 comments

speakup

wah lau weh look at the PREMIUM of the warrant!

2019-03-14 10:29

i3gambler

speakup.

1) It will expire in 2026, big premium for long time, it is OK.
2) Cold Eyes said the mother share will go up many folds.

2019-03-14 10:37

johnny cash

Mother share for long term is better

2019-03-14 12:33

johnny cash

Be always in safe corner

2019-03-14 12:34

Veron_teo

lol. such misleading topic. f u

2019-03-14 12:52

i3gambler

Veron_teo

Abusive will not help at all,

What's wrong with the topic?

The calculation is to determine whether to buy mother share or WA.

The two guys Mr Black and Mr Scholes are both Nobel prize winners.

2019-03-14 13:29

speakup

http://www.financetwitter.com/2019/03/three-bailouts-involving-rm30-bi...
PH govt say no money, but suddenly got money to bailout Tabung Haji, bailout MAS.
WTF! LIARS!!!!

2019-03-14 14:32

i3gambler

The time I wrote this post, SAPNRG was 0.34, with that price the calculated fair value of WA was 0.146, compared with market price of 0.11, Fair Value / Market Price = 0.146 / 0.11 = 133%.

Now, SAPNRG = 0.365, the calculated fair value of WA = 0.165, compared with market price of 0.135, Fair Value / Market Price = 0.165 / 0.135 = 122%.

Not so much meat already.

If you have bought WA at 0.11, you may want to decide whether to continue keeping the WA or just sell off to take the profit.

From 0.11 to 0.135, you already made 22% profit.

2019-03-17 20:01

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