i3gambler

TENAGA and TENAGA-C85

i3gambler
Publish date: Sat, 19 Jun 2021, 06:20 PM
My Blog

See the above screen shot on TENAGA.

What happen to TENAGA?

The price shot up 40 cent with huge volume (>6.2 million shares) during the last 10 minutes trading on Friday.

Meaning paying extra = 40 cent * 6.2 million = RM2.48m.

Who were they buying at a big jump?

What for?

 

 

Now look at the screen shot below on TENAGA-C85.

What happen to the last  2 trades?

Knowing the mother share already shot up to 10.44 at 16.50pm.

Still wanted to sell at 0.05?

 

 

 


Calculation for TENAGA-C85:

Expiry: 30.06.2021

Strike: 9.6337

Ratio: 6.7436

As it is about to expire, the time value is negligible.

Therefore, the fair value is equal to intrinsic value.

Then, if TENAGA was at:

1) RM10.04 before 16.45 pm, TENAGA-C85 value = (10.04 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = RM0.060

2) RM10.44 after 16.50 pm, TENAGA-C85 value = (10.44 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = RM0.120

The value of TENAGA jump up 100%, and yet someone still wanted to sell TENAGA-C85 at RM0.05?

Trade call warrant without looking at the mother share?

Can not do like that lah.

 

 


Last one, very important, must say three times.

My writing is for educational purpose, trade at your own risk.

My writing is for educational purpose, trade at your own risk.

My writing is for educational purpose, trade at your own risk.

 

 

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 25 of 25 comments

i3gambler

Correction ==>> *The value of TENAGA-C85 jump up 100%*

2021-06-19 18:27

birkincollector

ur surely a gambler.....tenaga c85 expiring in few days.....if ur confident lets the bank buy from u ...lets not duping people to buy ur sell queue

2021-06-20 10:45

ahbah

Tenaga c85 now is a gold mine or a death trap for us ?

2021-06-20 12:17

Lukey_Greek

It’s our national team doing window dressing for KLCI using heavyweight blue chip like Tenaga. 1st day playing shares?

2021-06-20 12:22

ahbah

Could dressing up KLCI into a beautiful princess also dresses us up into handsome princes ?

2021-06-20 12:30

i3gambler

birkincollector

When I find that C85 is relatively very cheap compare with the mother share, I bought it and write / highlight / teach people how to do the calculation.

I must say that I do not how to predict the direction of TENAGA, whether it will go North of South in short / long term.

Of course I hope people after reading it, will do their calculation and if they think worth to take the risk, then buy C85 and help to bring C85 price closer to its intrinsic value.

I will sell when C85 at the right price.

I am not Santa Claus.

If this is not allowable, same logic, what about those people who say good or bad thing about any company, be it blue chip or junk companies?

2021-06-20 13:18

RJ87

Tenaga gap up and gap down is just a blink of an eye…

Exercise price depends on 5 days VWAP…For RM10 counter to gap down 50sen is very easy if compared to RM1 counter.

2021-06-20 13:58

SpeedNpower

Ppl cut loss duh. That's why sell.

2021-06-20 17:48

i3gambler

RJ87,

The more it can gap up/down, the higher the value of C85.

Say now TENAGA is only 9.96,
Intrinsic value of C85 is = (9.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.048,

If it is highly volatile that:

1) 50% chance go up 1.00 and 50% chance go down 1.00
Then the value of C85 = 50%*(10.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.098

2) 50% chance go up 2.00 and 50% chance go down 2.00
Then the value of C85 = 50%*(11.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.172

2021-06-20 18:42

Lukey_Greek

Last Friday is quadruple witching day. Pls google if wanna find out more.

2021-06-20 21:21

RJ87

So, u expect it to immediately go up or down is it? One moment +100%, the other moment -50% is it?

it’s more like betting upon expiry that price won’t hold. If he is sure that last week of june is gonna drop below 9.5. 5sen will be very much better than 0.

if u so confident that price will hold. Sailang everything la…got 300% upside for u…

2021-06-21 01:18

i3gambler

RJ87

Read again what I wrote in this post, I mentioned that the time value is negligible as C85 is about to expire.

Therefore I calculate its intrinsic value, intrinsic value is actually the lowest fair value when we assume both volatility and interest rate are zero.

Any volatility and interest rate will create added value to the call warrants.

Call warrants are for those people who believe that there are equal chance for the mother share to go North and South.

If you believe TENAGA will certainly go South, then do not buy mother share or its call warrants.

If you believe TENAGA will certainly go North, also do not buy its call warrants, it is better to borrow money (margin account etc) and all in.

Do not have a mindset to sailang for any single stock or its call warrants.

Many years ago, before I could first trade call warrant, I need to sign a form to disclose my years of experience in stock trading, I believe the rule is still there.

2021-06-21 08:09

RJ87

I dont know what u talking about anymore.

U were asking a question why anyone selling C85 at 5sen where the intrinsic value is higher, right?
My best answer is if Tenaga trade below 9.6 for last week of june, its gonna be 0. 5sen now is better than zero later.

If u cant say YES. I think its wise to not waste my time talking to a clown.

2021-06-21 09:29

i3gambler

TENAGA at 10.10, C85 intrinsic value = 0.069

Sold 200K units at 0.06 for profit taking.

And the sell Q 100K now at 0.065 is mine.

2021-06-21 09:34

i3gambler

RJ87,

If that is what you think,
I can only say you better don't trade call warrant.

2021-06-21 10:08

i3gambler

I revised the sell Q and sold 100K at 0.06.
No more holding.

2021-06-21 10:38

RJ87

Let me make this easier for u...

If VWAP of Tenaga between 24-30 June is 9.6. What is "intrinsic" value of C85?
If u refuse understand/answer simple question like this, what's there to discuss?

I better don't trade warrant? Then why the hell are you selling? I hv a point and you know it. 6sen is better than nothing is getting into ur head huh?

If C85 still got 6 months, I sailang together with you. It's only left 1 week. You are running out of time and hence hope.

2021-06-21 11:54

RJ87

10.440 drop back to 10.04 is just a blink of an eye as I said yesterday.

So it makes no sense for anyone to buy at 9sen yesterday as u think it should just to sell 5-6sen today. And becomes 0sen if it drop another 40sen. It happened today and it can happen again tmr. And it can stay there another week.

Thank god u r not completely stubborn or dumb. 6 sen looks #hell lot better than 0 sen. Don't tell me what to do. You becareful with call warrant yourself. Take care.

Let's revisit this topic on 30 June shall we?

2021-06-21 12:16

i3gambler

As I said, call warrants are for those people who believe that the mother share could go up and down both directions, with equal chance.

Last Friday, when it was around 10.02, I bought C85 with about 10% discount from intrinsic value.

After that, when came to end of Friday trading hours, it shot up to 10.44, of course I was very happy. I show the calculation, for that price of mother share, the intrinsic value of C85 is 0.12, and then question why the last 2 trades of C85 were still at 0.05.

From Friday's 10.44, from there I believe again the mother share could go both direction, further up or reverse down.

Unfortunately, today it reverse direction and go down.

When it came down to around 10.08, the discount is around 10% if I sell at 0.06, I decided to take profit.

Bought at 10% discount and sold at 10% discount with 20% profit, isn't very good?

Now it is at 10.04/10.06, I Q to buy again at 0.05.
If mother share go further down, then I will revise down my Q.

If I did not sell it at 0.06 this morning, I would feel reluctant Q to buy 0.05 now, because my exposure / risk is much higher holding 500K or 600K units.

What is the point to bet at what price TENAGA will end up end of June?
I told you I do not know, I can only say I believe it has equal chance to go both directions.

2021-06-21 13:13

i3gambler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzMQ3hZqtp0&t=1025s

Understand how to evaluate / calculate the fair value of call warrants.

I said equal chance for the mother share to go both direction,
However, to be exact, for most cases, it is a bit more to upside, depending on interest rate and dividend yield.

2021-06-21 14:34

RJ87

Simple questions expecting simple answers...

What is the settlement value? And if selling 6sen is a good call?
Expecting simple answer, no beating around the bush if you capable of any decent discussion.

Now, u know what I'm talking about and why the fella sold 5sen.
If u insist on upside is better why didn't you hold until expiry?

You ARE betting what price TENAGA will end up in June. Else, u really don't what you are doing here. "I said equal chance for the mother share to go both direction"...Hahahahahha, this is not betting. Then, do enlighten what is this? Joker betul.

2021-07-01 10:35

i3gambler

1) That guy should have waited until the next day to sell at 6 sen instead of 5 sen. He sold to me at 5 sen and I sold it the next day at 6 sen, making 20% gross profit, wasn't it bad for him and good for me?

2) How many times do I need to tell you that "equal chance for the mother share to go both direction"? Go and click the above youtube link and watch. To be exact, we assume the mother share price will in average grow at a rate of equal to interest rate minus dividend yield, then assume it will spread like normal distribution.

3) After making 20% gross profit in the first round, I bought again until the last trading day on 29th June but at smaller quantity, My average purchase price for the second round was at 3.6 sen, and the settlement value is 3.76 sen.

2021-07-01 17:59

i3gambler

*last trading day on 28th June

2021-07-02 08:41

RJ87

If today price happens on last week of June. Let me see what do u get at the end?

Errrr, 0.005sen or 1sen. It PROVED my point exiting 5sen is great. U were lucky there was a bounce. You heeded my advice and exited at 6sen(I assume u did la ya). So, lucky u, pity whoever that picked up from you.

I don't bother exposing ur lies. The volume don't check out. U say u entered 3.6sen average. Simply pick a day low and claim entry to make urself "feel" better won't bring u very far.

Else....here a neat trick... screenshot and upload how u get ur 3.6sen position here... use this (https://imgur.com/) can share screenshot and paste the link.

Else, it's pointless to have further discussion and hence I rest my case. Errr, You're welcome. No worries, u don't owe me anything.

P.S. The way u claim entering day low give me a hunch that u lost money.

2021-07-09 12:36

i3gambler

What? I listen to your advice? Who do you think you are?

Or may be you were the one who sold C85 to me at 5 sen?

I wrote that I bought for second round but at smaller quantity, so there was no question of "The volume don't check out".

It is quite safe to buy during the settlement days.
The chance of losing money is small.

When I bought on the 3rd settlement day, I already knew the VWAP for the 1st and 2nd Day. And when I bought again on the 4th settlement day, I already knew the VWAP for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd day.

2021-07-15 18:53

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