i3gambler
TOPGLOV-C2C
1) Expiry:
The expiry is actually on 29th July 2022.
However, I prefer to input 26th July 2022, the 3rd day of the 5 settlement days as the effective Expiry.
2) Dividend Yield:
The latest dividend payout 1.20 sen was ex-dated on 24th Dec 2021, I expect the same 1.20 sen dividend in March and June 2022.
3) Interest Rate:
2.00%
4) Volatility:
The latest 10 / 30 / 60 / 90 days Historical Volatility are 59% / 89% / 65% / 62%.
I do not want to input any of the above, I have a new idea.
From now to Expiry, there will be around 142 trading days,
The average Historical Volatility for the past 142 trading days was 51.4%.
Assume there will be a mirror image, I prefer to input 51.4%.
5) Fair Value Calculation:
As the exercise ratio is 3.00, The Fair Value of TOPGLOV-C2C is RM0.0808.
6) What if:
a) Volatility = 20%, Fair Value = RM0.0157
b) Volatility = 30%, Fair Value = RM0.0351
c) Volatility = 40%, Fair Value = RM0.0562
d) Volatility = 60%, Fair Value = RM0.0999
e) Volatility = 70%, Fair Value = RM0.1219
f) Volatility = 80%, Fair Value = RM0.1436
You see, Volatility is very Critical in Fair Value calculation.
7) Warning:
Please take note that the mother share price is RM2.19, still RM0.26 below the exercise price of RM2.45. Therefore, it is very likely TOPGLOV-C2C will end-up a TOTAL LOSS.
This article is for educational purpose, no recommendation for BUY or SELL, consult your dealer / broker before trading.
Last one, very important, must say it 3 times,
Trade at your own risk.
Trade at your own risk.
Trade at your own risk.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments
True, it is very likely to end-up TOTAL LOSS,
However, there is "Not So Likely" we will make more than 100% Profit.
Average out, the fair Value was RM0.08 yesterday.
Of course, right now the Fair Value is RM0.1166 when mother share is RM2.40.
2021-12-27 16:19
Valid for 28/12/2021 only, Fair Value of C2C:
1) TOPGLOV=2.30, C2C=0.100
2) TOPGLOV=2.32, C2C=0.104
3) TOPGLOV=2.34, C2C=0.107
4) TOPGLOV=2.36, C2C=0.111
5) TOPGLOV=2.38, C2C=0.115
6) TOPGLOV=2.40, C2C=0.118
2021-12-28 09:19
140+/- trading days before effective Expiry,
Volatility for the past 140 trading days = 52.5%, input this to Calculator.
Valid for 29/12/2021 only, Fair Value of C2C:
1) TOPGLOV=2.30, C2C=0.100
2) TOPGLOV=2.32, C2C=0.104
3) TOPGLOV=2.34, C2C=0.107
4) TOPGLOV=2.36, C2C=0.111
5) TOPGLOV=2.38, C2C=0.115
6) TOPGLOV=2.40, C2C=0.119
7) TOPGLOV=2.42, C2C=0.122
8) TOPGLOV=2.44, C2C=0.126
9) TOPGLOV=2.46, C2C=0.130
10) TOPGLOV=2.48, C2C=0.134
11) TOPGLOV=2.50, C2C=0.138
2021-12-29 08:09
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i3gambler
Sold all at RM0.09,
Aiya, sold too early.
2021-12-27 13:24