[LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDINGS BHD：大部份工厂计划于2020年2月底至2020年4月上旬进行维护]

4Q19 vs 4Q18:
由于平均产品售价下跌，乐天大腾化学收入从23.37亿令吉减少15.5％（或3.631亿令吉）至19.739亿令吉。其他抵消税前利润增加的主要因素包括产品售价下降导致的利润率挤压，turnaround成本的可用寿命变更导致的折旧增加2510万令吉，特许权使用费增加850万令吉引起的分销费用增加，以及2千910万令吉的外汇亏损。税后利润从830万令吉增加至1.904亿令吉，主要是由于将LACC股权出售给Eagle US的一笔过收益。

烯烃及其衍生物：
该部门的收入从2018年第四季度的4.786亿令吉减少至2019年第四季度的4.489亿令吉。这主要是由于2019年第四季度的售价与去年同期相比有所下降。从税前亏损1.232亿令吉增加至税前利润550万令吉，这主要是由于饲料原料价格下跌以及较低的库存减记至可变现净值所致。

聚烯烃产品：
该部门的收入从2018年第四季度的18.584亿令吉减少至2019年第四季度的15.25亿令吉。这主要是由于2019年第四季度的售价与去年同期相比有所下降。税前盈利从1.038亿令吉减少至税前亏损730万令吉，这主要是由于产品售价下降导致的利润率下降。

YTD19 vs YTD18：
由于平均产品售价下跌，集团收入从92.447亿令吉减少8.7％（或8.067亿令吉）至84.380亿令吉。税前利润从8亿4880万令吉减少至5亿330万令吉的主要原因是由于产品售价下降导致利润率下降。较低的销售价格主要是由于中美贸易战以及全球经济增长放缓导致廉价的聚烯烃供应从美国转移到东南亚地区。

导致税前利润降低的其他因素包括折旧费用增加9,950万令吉，这是由于turnaround成本的可使用年限改变了，较高的分销费用和较高的汇兑损失8,350万令吉。分销费用增加是由于销量增加，单位分销成本增加和已付/应付予控股公司的特许权使用费3570万令吉。税后利润从7亿8530万令吉减少至4亿4260万令吉。

烯烃及其衍生物：
该部门的收入从23.224亿令吉减少至18.296亿令吉。这主要是由于2019年产品销售价格和销量与去年同期相比有所下降。税前利润从8,180万令吉减少至4,190万令吉，这主要是由于利润率的压缩。

聚烯烃产品：
该部门的营业额从69.224亿令吉减少至66.084亿令吉。这主要是由于产品销售价格与去年同期相比有所下降。税前利润从6.220亿令吉减少至2.624亿令吉，主要是由于利润率的压缩。

4Q19 vs 3Q19：
由于2019年第四季的售价较上一季度减少，集团营业额从21.67亿令吉减少1.931亿令吉或8.9％至19.739亿令吉。工厂利用率从91％降至86％，主要是由于印度尼西亚出于经济原因降低了工厂利用率。

除税前溢利从2019年第三季的1.337亿令吉增加至2019年第四季度的1.424亿令吉，主要是由于向Eagle US出售LACC股权的一次性收益。这部分被2019年第四季度产品价格下降和外汇差额增加导致的利润率下降所抵消。

前景：
由于中东持续的地缘政治动荡，特别是随着最近美国与伊朗之间的僵局，以及欧佩克和俄罗斯持续减产，原油价格全年仍保持波动。宏观经济前景疲软以及美国产量和出口增加，可能会限制原油价格进一步上涨。

尽管最近在2020年1月签署了中美贸易协定的第一阶段，但市场观察人士指出，这不会立即改善，因为这将对全球贸易产生一定的滞后影响，美国也宣布于2020年11月总统大选之前，不再就与中国的贸易进一步降低关税。

在国内，预计到2020年将有更多新产能投产，这将造成短期至中期的供需失衡。考虑到当前不利的外部市场条件，虽在亚洲地区增长势头的一定支持下，预计石化行业的前景在来年仍将充满挑战。 2020财年，他们计划在马来西亚对所有工厂进行重大维护，除了一家裂解厂和一家聚丙烯工厂。这些工厂计划于2020年2月底至2020年4月上旬进行维护。
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James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:

a) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM2.07 (dividend RM0.04) in 1 year 8 months 3 days, total return is 195.1%

b) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.52 (dividend RM0.04) in 1 year 9 months 14 days, total return is 96.2%

c) MI (MI TECHNOVATION BERHAD), recommended on 2 Jun 19, initial price was RM1.67, rose to RM3.11 (adjusted)(dividend RM0.055) in 10 months 13 days, total return is 89.5%

d) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM0.97 in 1 year 2 months 26 days, total return is 68.7%

e) PWROOT (POWER ROOT BHD), recommended on 7 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.59, rose to RM2.23 (dividend RM0.148) in 1 Year 6 months 8 days, total return is 49.6%

我希望将我的策略分享给读者，希望他们在阅读后能够表现出色。我正在使用基本面分析（Fundamental Analysis）：

预计公司每年的增长率必须> 14％

我想说服读者学习基本面分析FA以便能从股市赚钱。

我为想从马来西亚股票市场赚钱的读者提供STOCK PICK服务。想订阅我的邮件以从股票市场获取良好回报的人，可以通过jamesngshare@gmail.com 或我的FB页面与我联系。

1)【看懂年报和季报】课程:
11a.m. – 7p.m.，免费茶和咖啡

7月5日星期日：Espira Sri Petaling, KL 3份点心

7月11日星期六：Silka Johor Bahru Hotel, Johor Bahru 7份点心

7月19日星期日：AG Hotel Penang, George Town 2份点心

2)【股票-实际操作班】课程：
10a.m. – 9p.m.，免费午餐和晚餐

7月4日星期六：Espira Sri Petaling, KL

7月12日星期日：Silka Johor Bahru Hotel, Johor Bahru

7月18日星期六：AG Hotel Penang, George Town

有兴趣的朋友，可以电邮或PM FB page联络我
email：jamesngshare@gmail.com
电话/Whatsapp : 011 - 15852043

Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/jamesinvesting

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这个分享纯属讨论以及领域的分析，买或卖自负。请Like和Share这个post。最终决定永远是你的，谢谢。

James Ng
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[LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDINGS BHD: The plant turnaround is scheduled around end February to early April 2020]

4Q19 vs 4Q18:
Group revenue decreased by 15.5% (or RM363.1 million) from RM2,337.0 million to RM1,973.9 million due to decrease in average product selling price. Other major factors offsetting the higher profit before tax includes margin squeeze resulting from the fall in product selling prices, higher depreciation due to change of useful lives of turnaround costs by RM25.1 million, higher distribution expenses arising from increase in royalty expenses by RM 8.5 million and foreign exchange loss by RM 29.1 million. Profit after tax increased from RM8.3 million to RM190.4 million mainly due to one-off gain on the disposal of equity interest in LACC to Eagle US.

Olefins and derivative products:
The segment recorded a decrease in revenue from RM478.6 million in Q42018 to RM448.9 million in Q42019. This was primarily due to the decrease in selling prices in Q42019 as compared to the corresponding quarter. Profit before tax increased from loss before tax of RM123.2 million to profit before tax of RM5.5 million mainly due to decrease in feed stock price and lower write-down of inventories to net realisable value.

Polyolefin products:
The segment recorded a decrease in revenue from RM1,858.4 million in Q42018 to RM1,525.0 million in Q42019. This was primarily due to the decrease in selling prices in Q42019 as compared to the corresponding quarter. Profit before tax decreased from RM103.8 million to loss before tax of RM7.3 million mainly due to margin squeeze resulting from the fall in product selling price.

YTD19 vs YTD18:
Group revenue decreased by 8.7% (or RM806.7 million) from RM9,244.7 million to RM8,438.0 million due to decrease in average product selling price. The main reason for the decrease in profit before tax from RM848.8 million to RM503.3 million is due to margin squeeze resulting from the fall in product selling prices. The lower selling price is mainly due to diversion of cheaper polyolefin supply from USA into SEA region as a consequence of the US-China trade war as well as softening of global economic growth.

Other factors contributing to the lower profit before tax includes higher depreciation due to change of useful lives of turnaround costs by RM99.5 million, higher distribution expenses and higher foreign exchange loss of RM83.5 million. Higher distribution expenses arose from increase in sales volume, higher unit distribution cost and royalty expenses paid / payable to holding company of RM35.7 million. Profit after tax decreased from RM785.3 million to RM442.6 million.

Olefins and derivative products:
The segment recorded a decrease in revenue from RM2,322.4 million to RM1,829.6 million. This was primarily due to the decrease in product selling prices and sales volume in 2019 as compared to the corresponding year. Profit before tax decreased from RM81.8 million to RM41.9 million mainly due to margin squeeze.

Polyolefin products:
The segment recorded a decrease in revenue from RM6,922.4 million to RM6,608.4 million. This was primarily due to the decrease in product selling prices as compared to the corresponding year. Profit before tax decreased from RM622.0 million to RM262.4 million mainly due to margin squeeze.

4Q19 vs 3Q19:
Group revenue decreased by RM193.1 million or 8.9% from RM2,167.0 million to RM1,973.9 million due to decrease in selling price in Q4 2019 compared to the preceding quarter. The plant utilisation rate decreased from 91% to 86% mainly due to Indonesia plant reduced load for economic reason.

Profit before tax increased from RM133.7 million in Q32019 to RM142.4 million in Q42019 mainly due to one-off gain on the disposal of equity interest in LACC to Eagle US. This is partially offset by weaker margin resulting from lower product prices in Q42019 and higher foreign exchange difference.

Prospects:
As a consequence of continued geopolitical unrests in the Middle East, especially with the recent U.S–Iran stand off, and on-going production cuts by OPEC and Russia, crude oil price has remained volatile throughout the year. Softened macro economic outlook and increasing U.S output and exports will likely to limit further potential increase in crude oil prices.

Despite the recent signing of the first phase of U.S-China trade agreement in January 2020, market observers had noted that there would be no immediate improvement as there will be some lagging effect on global trade and the U.S has also announced that no further tariff reduction would be made on trade with China before the presidential election in November 2020.

Domestically, new additional capacities coming on-stream in 2020 are expected to create short to medium-term supply and demand imbalances. Looking at the prevailing adverse external market conditions, the outlook for petrochemical industry is still expected to remain challenging in the year ahead with some support from the Asian region growth momentum. For FY2020, their plants in Malaysia are scheduled for a major statutory turnaround for all plants, with the exception of one cracker and one polypropylene plant. The plant turnaround is scheduled around end February to early April 2020.
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I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:

the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year

I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.

I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page.

This sharing is purely a discussion and analysis of the sector, buying or selling at your own risk. Please Like and Share this post. Final decision is always yours, thank you.

James Ng