Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 26 Aug 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 26 Aug 2013, 09:56 AM

Global

IMF's Lagarde Urges Caution Over Withdrawing Stimulus. The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned central banks not to end their stimulus measures too soon. Christine Lagarde said stimulus policies were still needed in some regions, especially Europe and Japan. With signs that the global economy is improving, there has been much debate about when supportive policies should be wound down. But, in a speech in the US, Ms Lagarde said she did not suggest a "rush to the exit" as some economies remain fragile. The US Federal Reserve has signalled it may slow down its huge monthly bond buying programme, a suggestion that has hit stock markets and currencies around the world. (BBC)

Kuroda-Bean Say Policies Spur Growth As Fed Weighs Tapering. Central bankers from Japan and the U.K. predicted their new campaigns to encourage expansion will work, sustaining support for global growth even as the Federal Reserve considers a reduction in stimulus. As the annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, drew to a close yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said his souped-up asset-buying “has started to exert effects” on the world’s third-largest economy. Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean said the U.K.’s pledge this month to avoid raising interest rates before unemployment falls to 7 % should restrain U.K. gilt yields and boost confidence among consumers and companies. Such sentiments may help offset concerns among emerging markets as Fed officials consider whether to start reducing their $85 billion in monthly bond buying as soon as next month. (Bloomberg)

Asia

South Asian Consumers The Least Anxious. Consumers in South Asia appear to be the least nervous or anxious among those in the seven global regions surveyed by JWT. JWT, an international marketing communications group, released the results of its latest AnxietyIndex study on Thursday. The 10-year-old AnxietyIndex tracks the levels and drivers of consumer anxiety in 27 countries. Only 63% of the survey respondents in South Asia said they were very or somewhat anxious to what was happening in the world, their country and family life. This compares to the global average of 71%. The figure is 64% in North America, 69% in Western Europe, 71% in North Asia, 73% in South America, 75% in Eastern Europe, and 82% in the Middle East/Africa. This online survey, which was done in October last year, did not cover Malaysia. The South Asian countries monitored were Australia, India, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. (The Star)

 

USA

Sales Of New U.S. Homes Fell More Than Forecast In July. Purchases of new U.S. homes plunged 13.4 % in July, the most in more than three years, raising concern higher mortgage rates will slow the real-estate rebound. Sales fell to a 394,000 annualized pace, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The reading was the weakest since October and was lower than any of theforecasts by 74 economists Bloomberg surveyed. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

Euro Zone Consumer Morale Jumps To 2-Year High In August. Consumer morale in the euro zone improved by more than expected in August, jumping to its highest level in two years, the European Commission said on Friday, adding to encouraging signs that the bloc has started to recover. Consumer confidence in the 17 countries using the euro rose to -15.6 points in August from -17.4 points in July, beating market expectations for a rise to -16.50 points. The reading was the best since August 2011, when it stood at -16.5. (Reuters)

UK Economic Growth Revised Up To 0.7%. Economic growth in the UK during the second quarter of the year has been revised up to 0.7% by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The initial estimate, released in July, suggested gross domestic product (GDP) - the UK's economic output - had risen by 0.6% from the previous quarter. The ONS said the revision reflected small upward adjustments to the estimated output of several industries. The data also showed that export demand played a major role in driving growth. Compared with a year ago, GDP in the three months to June was 1.5% higher. (BBC)

German Budget Surplus Jumps In First Half Of Year. Official figures show Germany's budget surplus rose to 0.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year, boosted by higher tax income. The government pulled in 321.4bn euros in taxes, 3.8% more than a year ago thanks to its steady employment rate. The German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, said the surplus was 8.5bn euros ($11.3bn) in the period between January and June. The figure was higher than the surplus for the same period a year ago. For the whole of last year, Germany's budget surplus was 0.2% of GDP. (BBC)

Greece 'May Need 10bn Euros More' In Aid – Stournaras. Greece may need a third bailout but would not accept new austerity measures, the Greek finance minister has said. Yannis Stournaras said: "If there is need for further support to Greece, it will be in the order of about 10bn euros ($13.4bn), or much smaller than the previous programmes." Greece has already received two bailouts totalling about 240bn euros. Meanwhile, Angela Merkel has warned about writing down any more Greek debt. (BBC)

 

Currencies

Brazil Central Bank Commits $60bn To Prop Up Currency. Brazil's central bank has announced a $60bn plan to prop up the value of the national currency. It comes as the Brazilian real nears a five-year low against the US dollar. The real and other emerging market currencies have fallen steadily over the last three months on speculation of higher US interest rates. The central bank said it would spend $500m a day on Mondays to Thursdays and $1bn on Fridays buying reals in the currency markets. (BBC)

Dollar Swings To A Loss After New Home Sales Drop. The U.S. dollar swung to a loss Friday after a drop in July new-home sales and as benchmark government bond yields fell. Investors also focused on Federal Reserve official comments as central bankers met in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, fell to 81.366 in recent trade from 81.480 late Thursday in North America. Dollar weakness after the July home-sales data was evident in major pairs. The euro rose to $1.3383 from $1.3358 late Thursday while the dollar fell to ¥98.64 from ¥98.71 late Thursday. The Australian dollar rose to 90.28 U.S. cents from 90.13 cents. The British pound bought $1.5564, lower than $1.5585 late Thursday. There was some relief among emerging-market currencies on Friday as the dollar sank. The Indian rupee pulled back from record low levels, with the dollar buying 63.35 rupees in recent trade compared to 64.48 rupees late Thursday. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

Oil Edges Up On Strong China, Euro Zone Data. U.S. crude oil rose more than $1 on Thursday, while Brent crude rose less and its premium over U.S. crude narrowed by more than $1 in a lightly traded session. October Brent crude rose 9 cents a barrel to settle at $109.90. U.S. crude gained $1.18 to settle at $105.03, and continued to rise in post-settlement trade. The U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, stood at a $4.87 per barrel discount to Brent, narrowing more than $1 from its widest point of the session, $6.08. (Reuters)

Gold Up 1.5 %, Near $1,400, On Poor U.S. Home Sales. Gold rose 1.5 % on Friday, hitting its highest price in more than two months near $1,400 an ounce, as a big drop in U.S. new home sales renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will maintain its bond-buying economic stimulus. Spot gold rose 1.5 % to $1,395.66 an ounce by 11:21 a.m. EDT (1521 GMT), having hit $1,397.30, the highest price since June 7. Among other precious metals, silver jumped 2.5 % to $23.68 an ounce, having reached $23.78, which marked the highest price since May 13. Platinum gained 0.3 % to $1,541 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.1 % to $750.47 an ounce. (Reuters)

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