Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 27 Sep 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 27 Sep 2013, 09:24 AM

Asia

 ADB Sees Growth Risk In East Asia. Emerging East Asian economies risk slower growth after they failed to take advantage of ample cash supply made available by global monetary authorities to build roads and ports, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said. Funding infrastructure needs has become harder following recent turmoil in regional financial markets, and borrowing costs could rise further when the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) starts tightening policy, the Manila-based lender said in a report yesterday. Weakening growth momentum could accelerate capital outflows, and moves to defend Asian currencies by raising interest rates will further curb economic expansion, it said. (Bloomberg)

 S. Korea To Run Fiscal Deficit In 2014 For Stimulus. The South Korean government said Thursday it would run a fiscal deficit next year to help boost the economy, despite concerns over growing government debts. The Finance Ministry said it wanted to increase government spending by 4.6% next year to 357.7 trillion won (US$332bil). The budget proposal for 2014, endorsed by the cabinet in a meeting Thursday, will be submitted to parliament by Wednesday. The requested increase is lower than a 5.1% rise in the 2013 budget. But it comes as next year's government revenue is expected to fall 0.5% from 2013, its first decline in four years. The government would consequently run a fiscal deficit of 1.8% of the gross domestic product next year. (AFP)

 Taiwan Holds Key Rate To Support Economy As Inflation Slows. Taiwan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a ninth straight meeting to bolster the island’s economic recovery as inflation cools. The central bank held the discount rate on 10-day loans to banks at 1.875 %, it said in a statement in Taipei today, as predicted by all 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The monetary authority has kept borrowing costs unchanged since June 2011. (Bloomberg)

 China To Allow Interbank Trading Of Certificates Of Deposit. China said it will allow trading of certificates of deposit between banks, another step toward loosening state control over interest rates. Trading will be permitted in the “near term” as the central bank aims to “create conditions for steady and orderly promotion of deposit-rate liberalization,” Hu Xiaolian, a People’s Bank of China deputy governor, said in a Sept. 24 comment in Beijing posted today on the authority’s website. The action would build on July’s removal of the floor on borrowing costs, with the PBOC saying at the time that deposit-rate reform was the “the most critical and risky” element of banking reforms. Forcing lenders to compete for funds would offer consumers more spending power, while undermining the model of state-directed, subsidized credit. (Bloomberg)

USA

 Economy In U.S. Expanded At A 2.5% Annual Rate Last Quarter. The economy expanded at faster pace in the second quarter from the previous three months, a sign the U.S. was weathering federal budget cutbacks and higher taxes. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 % annualized rate, unrevised from the previous estimate, after expanding 1.1 % in the first quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was a 2.6 % pace. (Bloomberg)

 Labor Estimate Shows U.S. Payrolls Revised Up In Year To March. The Labor Department’s preliminary estimate of employment in the year ended March 2013 was revised up by 345,000 workers, reflecting the addition of employees who weren’t previously counted in the monthly payrolls report. Current estimates show 2.03 million jobs were added in the 12-month period. A reclassification of workers into another category of establishments inflated the estimate by 469,000, the Labor Department’s preliminary projections showed today on its website. (Bloomberg)

 Drop In U.S. Jobless Claims Increases Confidence. Americans unexpectedly filed fewer claims for unemployment benefits last week, highlighting labor-market gains that are shoring up consumer confidence. Jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 305,000 in the week ended Sept. 21, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The monthly average was the lowest since 2007. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose for the third straight week, another report showed. (Bloomberg)

 Pending Sales Of Existing Homes In U.S. Decreased 1.6% In August. Fewer Americans signed contracts in August to buy previously owned homes, a sign that rising mortgage rates may have slowed housing market momentum. The index of pending home sales fell 1.6 %, after a revised 1.4 % decrease in July that was bigger than initially reported, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Economists forecast a 1 % decline in the gauge from the month before, according to a median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. (Bloomberg)

 Negative Rates On Treasury Bills Show Little Debt-Limit Concern. A slide below zero in rates on some Treasury bills that mature beyond October shows investors have little angst lawmakers may fail to agree on a debt limit. Treasury bills that mature as soon as November traded below zero today, with the bill maturing on Nov. 29 having a negative 0.005 % rate at 2:02 p.m. New York time.

The three-month bill rate was negative 0.0051 %, compared to 0.0152 % yesterday. Treasury bills that mature on Oct. 24 were at a rate of 0.038 %, up from 0.018 % yesterday. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told House Speaker John Boehner in a letter yesterday that the U.S. will exhaust extraordinary measures related to debt limit no later than Oct. 17. (Bloomberg)

Europe

 UK Economic Growth Confirmed At 0.7%. The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter of the year, official figures have confirmed. Bright spots included the construction and industrial sectors, which expanded at their fastest pace for three years. However, the pace of consumer spending was revised down, and business investment fell. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also revised up the growth rate for the first quarter of the year to 0.4% from 0.3%. (BBC)

 Irish House Prices Climb To A Six Year High. House prices in the Republic of Ireland are at their highest level in six years, official figures show. The Central Statistics Office says prices rose by 2.8% in August, the highest annual rise since 2007, pushed up by rising prices in the capital. Dublin property prices rose by 10.6% in August compared to the year before and by 1.9% on a monthly basis. Despite the increases, Dublin house prices are still 50% below their level at the peak of the bubble. Five years ago house prices in Ireland halved, after boom years had created a property and credit bubble. As a result, Ireland had to seek a bailout from international lenders including the European Union. (BBC)

 IMF Approves Next $1 Billion For Ireland Bailout Program. The International Monetary Fund disbursed the next $1 billion aid tranche to Ireland on Wednesday, as the European island nation remains on track with the conditions of its loan program. The IMF is one of a trio of lenders overseeing Dublin's 85 billion euro ($115 billion) bailout, necessary after its biggest banks collapsed in 2010. The IMF's portion of the program is about $30 billion. Ireland is set to become the first euro zone country to exit an EU/IMF bailout in December after returning to debt markets, but its economy still needs to start growing by more than 2 % per annum from next year on to help make its national debt sustainable. (Reuters)

 Greece Does Not Need 3rd Bailout, Seeks Debt 'Reprofiling': Deputy PM. Greece does not require a third bailout and can cover its needs without further burdening its current backers, by improving the terms of its debt and possibly returning to the bond market next year, the country's deputy prime minister said on Wednesday. Evangelos Venizelos, who is also foreign minister in a coalition government, is determined not to impose losses on Greece's European Union partners and the International Monetary Fund, which have pulled the troubled country from the brink of bankruptcy with about 240 billion euros ($325 billion) so far. (Reuters)

Currencies

 Dollar Rises As Focus Turns To U.S. Debt Limit. The U.S. dollar rose against major rivals Thursday after weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly, but gains were muted amid fiscal uncertainty in Washington. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, rose to 80.535 from 80.32 late Wednesday. The British pound dipped to $1.6039 from Wednesday’s $1.6082, while the euro edged down to $1.3483 from $1.3526. The dollar bought ¥98.85 Japanese yen, up from ¥98.45 late Wednesday. In other action, the Australian dollar traded at 93.50 U.S. cents, less than 93.70 U.S. cents late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Brent Edges Lower, Iran Diplomacy In Focus. Crude oil prices edged lower in choppy trading on Wednesday as comments from the Iranian foreign minister revived hopes that talks over Tehran's nuclear program could see progress, and as U.S. crude oil inventories posted a large build. Brent crude oil futures fell 32 cents to $108.32 a barrel. Earlier, Brent rose more than $1 to reach a session high of $110.09. U.S. crude fell 47 cents to $102.66 a barrel in a fifth day of losses. On Tuesday, U.S. crude hit a seven-week low. (Reuters)

 Gold Falls On Dollar Rise, Mixed U.S. Economic Data. Gold fell on Thursday as a rise in the dollar and mixed U.S. economic indicators prompted investors to take profits after gains in the previous session. Spot gold was down 0.8 % at $1,322.40 an ounce at 3:11 p.m. EDT (1911 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.5 % to $21.65 an ounce, platinum dropped 1.5 % to $1,404.50 an ounce, and palladium inched down 0.2 % to $718.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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