Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 03 Oct 2013, 10:17 AM

Malaysia

 Vehicle Volume On Track To Hit 640,000 This Year, Says MAA. Despite the slowdown in the first half, the automotive industry is set to achieve the 640,000 total industrial volume (TIV) this year, according to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA). “The confidence level is still there as consumers are still willing to buy motor vehicles and industry players are still launching new models into the market,” said MAA president Datuk Aishah Ahmad. She said car sales had been impacted in the first half due to speculation of prices coming down, but it picked up in the second half with July recording the highest monthly TIV in four years. “There would be growth, and we have achieved more than 5% growth this year, up to August,” she said. (The Star)

Asia

 ADB: Developing Asia Can Weather Us Fed's Tapering. Asian economies can ride out the storm when the Federal Reserve finally begins ending years of easy money, with even those most at risk, India and Indonesia, holding enough currency reserves for rough times ahead, according to the Asian Development Bank. Updating forecasts for 2013 and 2014, the Manila-based lender said on Wednesday that growth in developing Asia is likely to be slower than it thought three months ago, when it last revised forecasts to an annual outlook released in April. It now reckons the region, grouping 45 countries in Asia-Pacific, will grow 6.0 percent in 2013 and 6.2 percent in 2014, little changed from last year's growth of 6.1 percent. China is expected to grow 7.6 percent and 7.4 percent this year and the next, ADB said, trimming its July forecasts of 7.7 percent and 7.5 percent respectively. (Reuters)

USA

 ADP Data Show Companies Add Fewer U.S. Workers Than Forecast. Companies added fewer workers than projected in September, indicating the U.S. job market is struggling to gain momentum, a private report based on payrolls showed today. The 166,000 increase in employment followed a revised 159,000 rise in August that was smaller than initially estimated, according to the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey. The median forecast of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 180,000. (Bloomberg)

 US Shutdown: Barack Obama Warns Of Default Danger. US President Barack Obama has warned that Wall Street should be concerned that a conservative faction of Republicans is willing to allow the country to default on its debt. Talks have now begun between Mr Obama and Congressional leaders from both the Republicans and Democrats. The US government closed non-essential operations on Tuesday after Congress failed to reach a new budget deal. In a TV interview on Wednesday, Mr Obama said he was "exasperated". Republicans and Democrats are blaming each other for the impasse. (BBC)

Europe

 Draghi Says Eurozone Recovery 'Weak' As ECB Holds Rates. Economic recovery in the eurozone remains "weak, fragile, uneven", European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has said. He warned that further support for the banking sector could not be ruled out, and said that a protracted shutdown in Washington would harm global growth. Mr Draghi was speaking after the ECB kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.5%. He said rates were likely to be left at this level for an "extended period". (BBC)

 UK Housebuilding Activity Expanding At A Near 10-Year High, Survey Shows. UK housebuilding activity grew last month at its fastest pace for almost a decade, a survey has suggested. The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' housing index for September was 64.8, just below 64.9 in November 2003. The index for construction overall was 58.9 last month, a slight dip from 59.1 reached in August, but still well above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Markit also found more optimism about the sector's future growth. The 64.8 mark for residential housebuilding in September was also a big rise on the 61.1 seen the month before. (BBC)

 Spain's Jobless Claims Rise In September, Government Data Shows. The number of registered jobless in Spain has risen for the first time in seven months as the tourist sector laid off workers after the summer season. Unemployment in September rose by 0.5%, or 25,572, to 4.7 million, with the service sector shedding 52,000 jobs, according to Labour Ministry data. However, the jobless level in industry and construction continued to fall. (BBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Extends Decline Into Fourth Session. The U.S. dollar fell against major rivals on Wednesday for the fourth straight session as investors worried about the length of the government shutdown and the coming debt-ceiling battle. Meanwhile, the euro surged to its highest level against the greenback in nearly eight months, fetching $1.3585 versus $1.3531 late Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against six rivals, fell for the fourth straight session to 79.875 from 80.116 late Tuesday. That marked the lowest level since the index’s Feb. 6 close of 79.72, according to FactSet. The British pound gained to $1.6229 from $1.6205 late Tuesday. In other currency action, the dollar fell to 97.38 Japanese yen from ¥97.82 late Tuesday. The Australian dollar edged down to 93.80 U.S. cents from 93.96 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

 Brent Drops Further Below $108 On Worries Over U.S. Shutdown. Brent crude extended losses below $108 on Wednesday on concerns the U.S. government shutdown would reduce demand for commodities, while expectations that U.S. oil inventories rose last week also put pressure on prices. Brent crude for November fell 41 cents to $107.53 a barrel by 0444 GMT. The benchmark has fallen more than 8 % from a six-month high hit in late August. U.S. crude was at $101.53, down 51 cents, extending losses for a fourth straight session. (Reuters)

 Gold Edges Above 2-Month Low As U.S. Shutdown In Focus. Gold rose on Wednesday after a 3 % fall in the previous session to a two-month low, with the dollar declining as investors focused on the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years. Spot gold gained 1.1 % to a session high of $1,303.06 an ounce, after weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP employment data added pressure on the dollar.

Silver rose 0.9 % to $21.29 an ounce. Spot platinum was up 0.7 % at $1,383.74 an ounce and spot palladium fell 0.2 % to $714.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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