Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 7 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 07 Oct 2013, 11:31 AM

Global

 APEC Sees Growth Risks As Moody’s Says Outlook Challenging. Global growth will probably be slower and less balanced than desired, ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation member economies said as they agreed to refrain from raising new barriers to trade and investment. The world economy is too weak and “risks remain tilted to the downside,” ministers from the 21-member grouping said in a statement in Bali yesterday. The Asia-Pacific region will have a harder time preserving growth, given volatility in financial markets and a slow recovery in advanced nations, Moody’s Investors Service said. (Bloomberg)

 APEC Leaders Urge Vigilance Against Protectionism To Spur Growth. Asia-Pacific leaders are calling for vigilance against protectionism as economic growth slows in parts of the region and completion of a 12-nation trade pact looks set to be delayed further. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies must also improve infrastructure to spur trade and investment, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said in a speech in Bali yesterday to about 1,000 business executives before the start of the APEC leaders summit today. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Najib Razak said the year-end deadline for the Trans-Pacific Partnership may not be met. Policy makers are seeking to boost their economies via new markets for goods and services as an uneven global recovery and volatility in financial markets constrain growth. China’s increased economic presence may support trade for the region, even as its territorial spats with some Southeast Asian countries and its greater military assertiveness cause concern. (Bloomberg)

Asia

 Abe Warns Of Delay In Key Labor Reforms. Shinzo Abe has sought to damp expectations for a speedy liberalization of Japan's labor market, pointing to strong domestic opposition to the "sensitive" but potentially crucial plank in his structural reform program. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Abe said he was determined to build on the early successes of his "Abenomics" revitalization campaign by pressing ahead with deregulation. But he conceded that a relaxing of Japan's stringent job protections - a step that he has described as necessary to make Japanese companies more competitive and to attract foreign investment - would not be part of an forthcoming policy package. (Financial Times)

 BoJ Refrains From More Stimulus As Business Confidence Up. The Bank of Japan refrained from adding to unprecedented monetary stimulus after business confidence surged and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided the economy was strong enough to weather a sales-tax increase. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s board retained a goal of expanding the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($720 billion) a year, the central bank said in Tokyo today. Thirty-five of 36 economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast no change in policy, while one predicted more purchases of real-estate investment trusts. (Bloomberg)

USA

 Obama Expects Congress Will Raise Debt Cap. President Barack Obama says he doesn't expect Congress to breach the deadline to increase the nation's borrowing limit. He says he's willing to negotiate changes to his signature health care law and to find ways to reduce spending, but stresses he will not bargain until after Congress reopens the government and passed a new debt ceiling. Obama says there's a majority of lawmakers in the House who would vote to end the partial government shutdown and raise the credit limit without conditions. (AP)

 Despite Shutdown, Us Debt Downgrade Unlikely: S&P. The standoff over funding the government and increasing the borrowing limit is "unlikely to change" Standard & Poor's AA plus rating on U.S. debt, S&P's managing director and lead analyst on U.S. sovereign ratings told CNBC on Friday. But as the government shutdown entered its fourth day, Marie Cavanaugh said in a "Squawk Box" interview, "We estimate that the shutdown is probably costing about 0.3 percent off the quarterly growth rate for every week that it's shutdown continues." The U.S. Treasury set Oct. 17 as the deadline for raising the debt ceiling. But that was before the shutdown, Cavanaugh pointed out, which causes the government to spending less. "So in an odd way it may move the date back a little bit," she said. (CNBC)

Europe

 Italian Bonds Advance Amid Political Optimism As Letta Wins Vote. Italian government bonds rose this week, with two-year yields reaching a two-month low, on optimism the nation’s political situation has stabilized after Prime Minister Enrico Letta won a confidence vote in parliament. Italy’s 10-year securities climbed as former premier Silvio Berlusconi backtracked on a pledge to bring down the coalition amid signs his party would desert him. Spanish debt also gained. Benchmark Portuguese 10-year yields fell the most since July as the nation passed the eighth and ninth reviews of its aid plan. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

 Dollar Posts Weekly Losses Against Euro, Yen. The dollar rebounded against the euro and yen on Friday but posted slight weekly losses against the two rivals as the U.S. government shutdown stretched into its fourth day with few signs of a deal to raise the debt ceiling. The euro fell to $1.3555 from $1.3619 late Thursday、 gained about 0.2% against the greenback for the week. The U.S. dollar rose to 97.41 yen from ¥97.24 the prior day, posting a weekly loss of 0.8%. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against a basket of six rivals, rose to 80.129 from 79.755 late Thursday. The dollar index shed about 0.2% for the week. The Australian dollar rose to 94.28 U.S. cents from 94.00 U.S. cents late Thursday. In other action, the British pound fell to $1.6026 from $1.6158 late Thursday, and eked out a weekly gain of 0.1% against the dollar. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Oil Ends Higher On Storm Risk, Gains 0.9% On Week. Crude-oil futures closed higher Friday, adding to a weekly gain as energy companies evacuated oil and natural-gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in preparation for a possible hurricane, raising concerns over energy supplies. Crude oil for November delivery added 53 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $103.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On ICE Futures, prices for Brent crude saw similar gains, with the November contract tacking on 46 cents, or 0.4%, to end at $109.46 a barrel. (Market Watch)

 Gold Slips As Dollar Recovers; Eyes On U.S. Shutdown. Gold fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar recovered from two-month lows and investors braced for the political stalemate in Washington to drag on for another week, while platinum rose as water restrictions threatened to roil South African mines. Spot gold was at $1,310.53 an ounce, down 0.5 percent at 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled at $1,309.9, down $7.7 an ounce, or 0.6 percent. Spot platinum was up 1.6 percent at $1,391.5 an ounce and was on track for its biggest one-day rise in 2-1/2 weeks. Spot palladium eased 0.08 percent to $702.02 an ounce, while spot silver fell 0.23 percent to $21.73 an ounce. (Reuters) 

 

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