Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 8 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Tue, 08 Oct 2013, 09:53 AM

Global

 China Tells US To Avoid Debt Crisis For Sake Of Global Economy. A senior Chinese official has warned that the "clock is ticking" to avoid a US default that could hurt China's interests and the global economy. China, the US's largest creditor, is "naturally concerned about developments in the US fiscal cliff", vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao said. Washington must agree a deal to raise its borrowing limit by 17 October, or risk being unable to pay its bills. He asked that "the US earnestly take steps to resolve" the issue. US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has said that unless Congress agrees an increase in the debt ceiling by 17 October, Washington will be left with about $30bn in cash to meet its obligations - about half the $60bn-a-day needed. (BBC)

Malaysia

 World Bank Forecasts Lower Growth For Malaysia. The World Bank is downgrading Malaysia’s growth for 2013 due to the weaker economic activities in the first half of the year. The Washington DC-based international financial institution said in the twice-yearly East Asia and Pacific economic update that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year might come in at 4.3% or 0.8 percentage points lower than the April estimate. However, it expects an improvement in Malaysia’s growth in the second half of the year on an anticipated bottoming-out of external demand and an increase in confidence in the recovery of advanced economies. (The Star)

Asia

 East Asia Growth Forecast Cut By The World Bank. The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for East Asia's developing countries from 7.8% to 7.1% for 2013. The international lender said that a slowdown in China's growth and the prospect of the end of US stimulus measures would affect growth in the region's economies. China's economy is expected to grow by 7.5%, lower than the 8.3% prediction made in April this year. Lower commodity prices have also weakened prospects, the bank said. Last week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its outlook for the region, also citing slower growth in China as a reason. (BBC)

 Surprise Fall In Taiwan Exports. Taiwan reported an unexpected fall in exports in September, with shipments to its largest markets, China and the United States, dropping significantly. The finance ministry said that exports, which had risen on an annual basis in the four preceding months, declined 7% in September. In August, exports rose 3.6% from a year earlier. For the month, the trade surplus was US$2.35bil. (Reuters)

 India Eases Cash Crunch At Banks, Leaves Benchmark Unchanged. India’s central bank rolled back further an emergency step taken to shore up its currency as the rupee’s continued stabilization allowed it to relax liquidity for the nation’s banks. Governor Raghuram Rajan lowered the marginal standing facility rate to 9 % from 9.5 %, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement yesterday, the second cut in less than a month. The benchmark for monetary policy, the repurchase rate, was left at 7.5 %. Rajan raised the repo rate last month to fight elevated inflation. (Bloomberg)

North America

 Consumer Credit In U.S. Rises $13.6 Billion On Car Purchases. Consumer borrowing rose more than projected in August as Americans took out more loans for motor vehicle purchases and education. The $13.6 billion increase in credit followed a $10.4 billion gain in July, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $12 billion advance. Non-revolving debt, which includes financing for college tuition and motor vehicles, climbed $14.5 billion. (Bloomberg)

 Canadian Consumer Confidence Index Falls On U.S. Concern. Canadian consumer sentiment fell for the first time in more than a month as budget disputes in the U.S. prompted views of the economy to deteriorate, according to the new Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. The index, a weekly measurement of the economic mood of Canadians, fell to 59.04 in the period ended Oct. 4, from 59.75 the previous week. It marks the first decline since the week ended Aug. 30 for the index, which tracks consumers’ perceptions of the strength of the economy, job security, real estate and their financial situation. (Bloomberg)

Europe

 Greece Forecasts It Will Emerge From Recession In 2014. Greece has predicted that it will emerge from its six-year long recession next year, in a sign it may be finally recovering from its debt crisis. The Greek government made the forecast in a first draft of its 2014 budget, which predicted 0.6% growth. "We foresee the end of recession in 2014," vice finance minister Christos Staikouras said. Greece will submit a final budget in November. Greece's economy has shrunk by 23% since 2008, and it has been dependent on rescue loans from other European Union countries and the International Monetary Fund since 2010. (BBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Hits Nearly Two-Month Low Against Yen. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level against the Japanese yen in nearly two months on Monday, as Democrats and Republicans stood their ground on opposite sides of the budget debate and the government shutdown stretched into its second week. The dollar fell to ¥96.77 from ¥97.41 late Friday. That’s the lowest level since August 9’s closing price of ¥96.226, according to FactSet data. The pound rose to $1.6091 from $1.6026 late Friday, and the dollar bought Global  China Tells US To Avoid Debt Crisis For Sake Of Global Economy. A senior Chinese official has warned that the "clock is ticking" to avoid a US default that could hurt China's interests and the global economy. China, the US's largest creditor, is "naturally concerned about developments in the US fiscal cliff", vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao said. Washington must agree a deal to raise its borrowing limit by 17 October, or risk being unable to pay its bills. He asked that "the US earnestly take steps to resolve" the issue. US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has said that unless Congress agrees an increase in the debt ceiling by 17 October, Washington will be left with about $30bn in cash to meet its obligations - about half the $60bn-a-day needed. (BBC)

Malaysia

 World Bank Forecasts Lower Growth For Malaysia. The World Bank is downgrading Malaysia’s growth for 2013 due to the weaker economic activities in the first half of the year. The Washington DC-based international financial institution said in the twice-yearly East Asia and Pacific economic update that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year might come in at 4.3% or 0.8 percentage points lower than the April estimate. However, it expects an improvement in Malaysia’s growth in the second half of the year on an anticipated bottoming-out of external demand and an increase in confidence in the recovery of advanced economies. (The Star)

Asia

 East Asia Growth Forecast Cut By The World Bank. The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for East Asia's developing countries from 7.8% to 7.1% for 2013. The international lender said that a slowdown in China's growth and the prospect of the end of US stimulus measures would affect growth in the region's economies. China's economy is expected to grow by 7.5%, lower than the 8.3% prediction made in April this year. Lower commodity prices have also weakened prospects, the bank said. Last week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its outlook for the region, also citing slower growth in China as a reason. (BBC)

 Surprise Fall In Taiwan Exports. Taiwan reported an unexpected fall in exports in September, with shipments to its largest markets, China and the United States, dropping significantly. The finance ministry said that exports, which had risen on an annual basis in the four preceding months, declined 7% in September. In August, exports rose 3.6% from a year earlier. For the month, the trade surplus was US$2.35bil. (Reuters)

 India Eases Cash Crunch At Banks, Leaves Benchmark Unchanged. India’s central bank rolled back further an emergency step taken to shore up its currency as the rupee’s continued stabilization allowed it to relax liquidity for the nation’s banks. Governor Raghuram Rajan lowered the marginal standing facility rate to 9 % from 9.5 %, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement yesterday, the second cut in less than a month. The benchmark for monetary policy, the repurchase rate, was left at 7.5 %. Rajan raised the repo rate last month to fight elevated inflation. (Bloomberg)

North America

 Consumer Credit In U.S. Rises $13.6 Billion On Car Purchases. Consumer borrowing rose more than projected in August as Americans took out more loans for motor vehicle purchases and education. The $13.6 billion increase in credit followed a $10.4 billion gain in July, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $12 billion advance. Non-revolving debt, which includes financing for college tuition and motor vehicles, climbed $14.5 billion. (Bloomberg)

 Canadian Consumer Confidence Index Falls On U.S. Concern. Canadian consumer sentiment fell for the first time in more than a month as budget disputes in the U.S. prompted views of the economy to deteriorate, according to the new Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. The index, a weekly measurement of the economic mood of Canadians, fell to 59.04 in the period ended Oct. 4, from 59.75 the previous week. It marks the first decline since the week ended Aug. 30 for the index, which tracks consumers’ perceptions of the strength of the economy, job security, real estate and their financial situation. (Bloomberg)

Europe

 Greece Forecasts It Will Emerge From Recession In 2014. Greece has predicted that it will emerge from its six-year long recession next year, in a sign it may be finally recovering from its debt crisis. The Greek government made the forecast in a first draft of its 2014 budget, which predicted 0.6% growth. "We foresee the end of recession in 2014," vice finance minister Christos Staikouras said. Greece will submit a final budget in November. Greece's economy has shrunk by 23% since 2008, and it has been dependent on rescue loans from other European Union countries and the International Monetary Fund since 2010. (BBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Hits Nearly Two-Month Low Against Yen. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level against the Japanese yen in nearly two months on Monday, as Democrats and Republicans stood their ground on opposite sides of the budget debate and the government shutdown stretched into its second week. The dollar fell to ¥96.77 from ¥97.41 late Friday. That’s the lowest level since August 9’s closing price of ¥96.226, according to FactSet data. The pound rose to $1.6091 from $1.6026 late Friday, and the dollar bought 0.9030 Swiss franc in recent trade, down from 0.9066 franc late Friday. The euro inched higher to $1.3577 from $1.3555. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six other currencies, fell to 79.933 from 80.129 late Friday. The Australian dollar was little changed at 94.27 U.S. cents versus 94.28 U.S. cents late Friday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Brent Rises, U.S. Oil Recoups Losses After Pipeline Resumes. Crude oil futures on both sides of the Atlantic pared losses on Monday after a sharp drop in earlier trade, following a report that a key pipeline delivering crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma, had resumed shipping after an earlier outage. U.S. crude oil slipped 81 cents to settle at $103.03 a barrel, after trading close to $2 a barrel lower at $101.86 earlier in the session. The contract slipped below the 100-day moving average of $102.45. Brent crude futures reversed earlier losses to finish up 22 cents at $109.68 per barrel, after earlier trading as low as $107.89. (Reuters)

 Gold Up About 1 Pct On U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis, S&P Down. Gold rose nearly 1% on Monday as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and no signs politicians were willing to resolve a budget impasse and raise the debt-ceiling limit boosted the metal's safehaven appeal. Spot gold was up 0.8 % at $1,321.01 an ounce by 2:55 p.m. EDT (1855 GMT), having earlier reached its highest since Oct. 1 at $1,327.94. In other precious metals, silver was up 2.9 % at $22.28, having earlier hit a two-week high at $22.44. Platinum gained 1.2 % to $1,396.49 an ounce after a 1.3 % increase on Friday, as mine strikes and curbs in top platinum producer South Africa threatened to hurt supply. Palladium rose 0.4 % to $699.47 an ounce. (Reuters)

Source: Kenanga

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