Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 10 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013, 09:48 AM

Global

 Emerging Market Output Growth Subdued In Sept. Output growth across emerging markets was subdued in September, making the average for the third quarter the lowest since early 2009, while expectations fell for the first time since June, a survey showed on Wednesday. The composite HSBC Emerging Markets index for services and manufacturing edged higher to 50.8 in September from 50.7 in August, pointing to a slow recovery as outstanding business continued to fall and new business grew feebly, HSBC said. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

 Foreigners Trim Malaysian Govt Debt Holdings. Foreigners trimmed their holdings of Malaysian government bonds for a fourth straight month in August, according to data from Bank Negara. Their holdings were RM125.51bil (US$39.28bil) at the end of August, compared with RM125.54bil at end-July and a peak of RM144.98bil in April. Malaysia is among emerging nations that have seen a reduction in foreign holdings of government bonds after chairman Ben Bernanke said in May that the US Federal Reserve intended to start reducing its bond-buying this year. (Reuters)

 Malaysia Expected To Reap RM168b From Tourism. Malaysia is expected to earn RM168bil from the targeted 36 million tourist arrivals by 2020 under the Malaysia Tourism Transformational Plan (MTTP), said Tourism and Culture Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz. He said tourism was the second largest foreign exchange earner and seventh largest contributor to the economy, contributing RM47.2bil to Gross National Income (GNI) in 2012. Last year, Malaysia had welcomed 25 million foreign tourists, placing it firmly as the 10th most popular tourism destination in the world, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), and ranked 13th in international tourism receipts of RM60.6bil. (Bernama)

 

Asia

 Indian Business Activity Falls To 4-Year Low. Indian manufacturing and service sector activity fell for a third successive month in September, posting the steepest decline since March 2009, according to a HSBC report published on Wednesday. The country's Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) — a closely watched indicator of a country's business strength — was 46.1 in September, down from 47.6 in the previous month. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level indicates a contraction. (CNBC)

 Indonesia To Regulate Currency Hedging. Bank Indonesia said it will regulate currency hedging by individuals and companies, including state-owned firms, to help stabilise Asia's most-volatile currency. The central bank will require Indonesians and corporations to present documents to show underlying economic activity such as international trade, foreign debt and investments, to conduct hedging transactions with lenders, it said yesterday. The amount and duration of the hedges will be limited by the underlying activity, it said. (Bloomberg)

 

USA

 Obama To Nominate Janet Yellen To Head Federal Reserve. US President Barack Obama will nominate Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Janet Yellen to be the next head of the US central bank on Wednesday, according to a White House official. If confirmed by the US Senate, Ms Yellen, 67, would replace Ben Bernanke, who has held the post for eight years. She has been his deputy for the last two years, and would become the first woman to head the Federal Reserve. (BBC)

 Most Fed Officials Saw QE Tapering This Year, Minutes Show. Most Federal Reserve policy makers said the central bank was likely to taper its bond purchases this year, even as they unexpectedly refrained from such a move in September, minutes of their last meeting show. “Most participants viewed their economic projections as broadly consistent with a slowing in the pace of the committee’s purchases of longer-term securities this year and the completion of the program in mid-2014,” according to the record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 17-18 gathering, released today in Washington. (Bloomberg)

 Shutdown Day 9: House GOP To Meet With Obama At White House. Facing a looming federal default, the House GOP leadership will meet with President Barack Obama at the White House on Thursday in a bid to resolve the budget deadlock that has shut down much of government for more than nine days. Amid the tough talk, though, there were hints of the possibility of a brief truce. There were indications that both sides might be open to a short-term extension of the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit and a temporary end to the shutdown, giving them more time to resolve their disputes. (AP)

 

Europe

 UK Industrial Output In Surprise Fall. UK industrial production fell unexpectedly in August, showing its biggest decline for nearly a year, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Industrial output decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, surprising analysts, who had expected a 0.4% rise. The news had an impact on the pound, which dropped 0.7% against the dollar. The biggest factor in the decline was a big fall in manufacturing output, which was 1.2% down on July levels. It was the biggest overall drop in output since September 2012. (BBC)

 

Currencies

 Dollar Holds Gains As Fed Minutes Point To Taper. The U.S. dollar gained ground versus major rivals Wednesday after the minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting showed most members of the central bank’s policy panel still hoped to begin scaling back the flow of monetary stimulus later this year. The ICE dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major rivals, traded at 80.378, little changed from its level ahead of the afternoon release of the minutes, maintaining a rise from a level of 79.999 in North American trade late Tuesday. The euro tumbled as far as $1.3464 in the wake of the minutes, but changed hands at $1.3520 in recent action, down from $1.3575 in North American trade on Tuesday. The dollar bought 97.32 Japanese yen, up from ¥96.89 late Tuesday. The dollar rose as high as ¥97.63 after the minutes. The Australian dollar fetched 94.42 U.S. cents, little changed from late Tuesday’s level. The British pound fell to $1.5953 versus $1.6082. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

 Brent Slips Below $110 As US Budget Crisis Drags On. Brent futures slipped below $110 per barrel on Wednesday, after lawmakers in Washington made little progress to end a budget impasse that threatens to curb demand in the world's biggest oil consumer and hurt investor confidence. Brent oil traded 19 cents lower at $109.97 per barrel at 0339 GMT, after settling higher for a third straight session. U.S. oil was 6 cents lower. (Reuters)

 Gold Falls 1 Pct As Dollar Rallies After Yellen News. Gold fell nearly 1% on Wednesday, as the dollar rose while investors digested news that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen will be nominated as the next chief of the U.S. central bank. Spot gold was down 0.9 % at $1,306.69 an ounce by 2:54 p.m. EDT (1854 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver dropped 1.6 % to $21.90 an ounce, tracking losses in gold. Platinum was down 1.2 % at $1,379.10 an ounce, while palladium fell 1.6 % to $700.72 an ounce. (Reuters) 

 

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