Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 16 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013, 10:00 AM

Asia

 China Inflation Rate Rises On Higher Food Prices. Consumer prices in China rose more than forecast in September, fuelled mainly by a surge in food prices. Prices rose 3.1% during the month, from a year earlier, up from 2.6% in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The bureau said that food prices rose 6.1% from a year ago due to the impact of national holidays, as well as droughts and floods in some regions. (BBC)

 China Forex Reserves Jump Most Since 2011. China's foreign-exchange reserves rose last quarter by the most in more than two years, a sign the government's efforts to protect growth attracted money even as developing nations from India to Indonesia saw capital exit. Reserves were a record US$3.66 trillion (RM11.64 trillion) at the end of September, the People's Bank of China said on Monday, up from US$3.5 trillion in June. The median projection was US$3.52 trillion in a survey of seven economists. (Bloomberg)

 India's Inflation Rate Hits Seven-Month High. India's inflation rate rose to a seven-month high in September, limiting the room for authorities to ease monetary policy as they look to spur growth. The Wholesale Price Index, India's main gauge of inflation, rose 6.46% from a year earlier, up from 6.1% in August. Rising consumer prices have been a concern for policymakers, preventing them from taking aggressive measures to boost India's slowing economy. (BBC)

USA

 U.S. AAA Rating Put On Negative Watch By Fitch On Delayed Budget. The U.S.’s AAA credit grade was placed on rating watch negative by Fitch Ratings, which cited the government’s failure to raise its borrowing limit as the Treasury’s deadline nears. “The political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a U.S. default,” Fitch, which is a jointly owned subsidiary of Paris-based Fimalac SA and New York-based Hearst Corp., said today in a statement. Fitch reiterated that it expects the debt ceiling to be raised. (Bloomberg)

 Democrats Reject Proposed Us House Fiscal Plan. US Democrats have rejected a proposal from House of Representatives Republicans to extend the debt limit and reopen the federal government. The White House criticised what it called an attempt to appease a small group of conservatives, but praised a parallel bipartisan Senate plan. The White House balked at the House's proposed amendments to President Barack Obama's signature healthcare law. The US must raise its $16.7tn (£10.5tn) debt limit by Thursday or risk default. (BBC)

Europe

 Eurozone Industrial Output Strengthens In August. Factories in the 17-country bloc saw output rise by 1% in the month, which was better than analysts' forecasts. The figures showed that the highest increase was registered in Portugal, where output grew by 8.2%. Europe's economic powerhouse, Germany, saw output rise 1.8%, while French output increased by 0.2% following three consecutive months of decline. However, output in Italy fell by 0.3%. This was the second decline in a row, as Italy's economy continued to falter. Germany, France and Italy make up two-thirds of the overall production figure for the eurozone. (BBC)

 UK Inflation Rate Unchanged At 2.7% In September. The UK's inflation rate, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), remained unchanged in September. Petrol and diesel prices fell, but this was offset by upward pressure from air fares, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. It means prices are still rising faster than wages, which rose by 1.1% on average over the same period. The retail prices index (RPI) measure of inflation fell slightly to 3.2% from 3.3% in August. (BBC)

 UK Eases Rules For Chinese Trading. Chancellor George Osborne has announced moves aimed at making London the main centre for Chinese financial business overseas. Mr Osborne will loosen regulation to allow the move. Under an £8bn pilot scheme, Londonbased investors will be able to apply for a license to use the Chinese currency to invest directly in Chinese shares and bonds. Until now, they have had to direct their investments via Hong Kong. (BBC)

 Irish Budget: Spending Cuts And Tax Rises To Save 2.5bn Euros. The Irish government has announced spending cuts and tax rises worth 2.5bn euros in what it hopes will be the final budget of the bailout era. A number of social welfare benefits are to be withdrawn or reduced. A grant to help with funeral costs and a telephone allowance for pensioners have been cut. The price of a pint of beer and a packet of cigarettes will both increase from midnight by 10 cents. The savings measures include a review of the Irish medical card system, which entitles eligible people to access certain health services free of charge. (BBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Mixed Ahead Of Debt-Limit Deadline. The dollar posted a mixed performance against rivals on Tuesday as U.S. lawmakers continued to work on a deal to raise the debt ceiling by Thursday, when the Treasury Department has said the U.S. will run out of borrowing authority. The euro fell to $1.3528 from $1.3566 on Monday. But the British pound recovered its earlier losses, trading at $1.5997 versus $1.5991 on Monday. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, rose to 80.429 from 80.296 in late North American trade on Monday. The dollar fell to ¥98.20 from ¥98.54. The Aussie exchanged hands at 95.27 U.S. cents in recent trade, up from 94.99 U.S. cents on Monday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Oil Price Falls Amid US Debt Deal Talks. Oil prices fell as the outcome of talks over a US debt deal remained uncertain and Iran unveiled a proposal to achieve a breakthrough in a decade-old standoff over its nuclear program. Brent crude fell 62 cents to $110.42 a barrel by 1529 GMT, paring losses after earlier losing more than $1 and settling lower the previous two sessions. US oil fell 32 cents to $102.09 a barrel, after also losing more than $1 earlier in the session. (Reuters)

 Gold Rises As US Budget Impasse Triggers Safe-Haven Bids. Gold prices rose on Tuesday in choppy trading, reversing sharp losses posted earlier in the session, as the ongoing fiscal impasse in Washington triggered safe-haven buying. Spot gold was up 0.7 % at $1,281.16 an ounce by 4:17 p.m. EDT (2017 GMT), off a high of $1,287.90 an ounce. Silver was up 0.3 % at $21.32 an ounce, having earlier touched a low of $20.48 an ounce, its weakest since Aug.9. In platinum group metals, platinum rose 0.2 % to $1,380.49 an ounce, while palladium dropped 1.1 % to $704.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

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