Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 24 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 24 Oct 2013, 09:42 AM

Asia Pacific

 Indonesia Q3 FDI Growth Slows, Global Economy Blamed. Commitments to invest in Indonesia increased at a slower pace in the third quarter than in the previous three months, data released on Wednesday showed. A government agency said foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments in July-September totalled 67 trillion rupiah (US$5.93bil), an 18.4% rise from a year earlier. In April-June, the amount increased 18.9% from a year earlier, in rupiah terms. The investment board blamed slower than expected global economic recovery for the slower pace. (Reuters)

 Australia Inflation Exceeds Estimates As RBA Rate-Cut Bets Pared. Australia’s consumer prices gained more than economists forecast last quarter, sending the local currency higher as money markets pared bets the central bank will extend its two-year easing of monetary policy this year. The trimmed mean gauge of core prices rose 0.7 % from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today, compared with the median forecast of 25 economists for a 0.6 % gain. The consumer price index gained 1.2 % from the previous three months, compared with economists forecast for a 0.8 % increase. (Bloomberg)

 Australia To Raise Debt Limit By Two-Thirds To A$500bn. The Australian government has said it plans to raise the country's debt limit by two-thirds to allay concerns it could face a future fiscal crisis. The newly-elected conservative government is looking to raise the borrowing limit to A$500bn ($486bn). Australia is forecast to reach its current A$300bn ceiling in December. Treasurer Joe Hockey said that he wanted to avoid a crisis similar to the recent US fiscal emergency. (BBC)

USA

 US Import Prices Gain, Prodded Higher By Oil Costs. U.S. import prices rose for the second straight month in September as the cost of petroleum increased, but there was no sign of a build-up in imported inflation pressures. Import prices rose 0.2 % last month after a revised 0.2 % gain in August, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Import prices had previously been reported as being flat in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices would gain 0.2 % in September. In the 12 months through September, import prices fell 1.0 %. Import prices excluding petroleum were flat from August. (Reuters)

Europe

 Spain Ends Two-Year Recession Amid Effort To Add Jobs. Spain emerged from a two-year recession in the third quarter, strengthening Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s efforts to repair the nation’s finances and reduce the 26 % jobless rate. Gross domestic product expanded 0.1 % from the second quarter, when it shrank 0.1 %, and fell 1.2 % from a year ago, the Madrid-based Bank of Spain estimated in its monthly bulletin today. The data, which are preliminary, matched the median estimate of 37 economists in a Bloomberg News monthly survey. (Bloomberg)

 Draghi Says ECB Won’t Hesitate To Fail Banks In Stress Tests. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said officials won’t hesitate to fail banks in its stress test next year as the ECB sets out to prove its vigilance in its new role of banking supervisor. “Banks do need to fail” to prove the credibility of the exercise, Draghi said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua in Frankfurt, after the ECB published plans for its bank-asset check. “If they do have to fail, they have to fail. There’s no question about that.” (Bloomberg)

Currencies

 Dollar, Yen Get Safety Bid On China Bank Worries. The U.S. dollar was flat to slightly higher versus most major rivals other than the yen on Wednesday as worries about China’s banks spurred a round of haven-related buying, strategists said. The ICE dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major rivals, rose to 79.270, up slightly from 79.233 in North American trade late Tuesday. The Aussie changed hands at 96.23 U.S. cents in recent action, down from 97.05 U.S. cents late Tuesday. The New Zealand dollar dropped 1.5% versus its U.S. counterpart to fetch 83.90 U.S. cents. The British pound also skidded and remained at $1.6164 in recent action, down from $1.6237. The dollar fetched 97.37 Japanese yen versus ¥98.11 late Tuesday. The euro dropped 0.8% versus Japan’s currency to fetch ¥134.15. The euro traded at $1.3775, down from $1.3784. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Oil Down As U.S. Inventories Rise, Spread Trade Volatile. Oil prices fell on Wednesday in volatile spread trading following a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories to the highest level since June. U.S. crude for December delivery settled $1.44 per barrel lower at $96.86, its lowest settlement since July 1, after paring some losses from an earlier drop to $96.16. Brent crude lost $2.17 per barrel, ending the day at $107.80 per barrel, its lowest settlement price since Aug. 8. (Reuters)

 Gold Lower On Profit Taking After 4-Week High, Weak Oil. Gold was slightly lower on Wednesday as investors sold to lock in profits after prices hit four-week highs a day earlier in reaction to weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and sold in reaction to a weaker oil market that dragged commodities down. Spot gold was down 0.5 % at $1,332.95 an ounce at 16:25 EDT (2025 GMT), after hitting $1,344.46 on Tuesday. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.4 % at $22.54 an ounce, having also touched a one month high on Tuesday at $22.80. Spot platinum was down 0.9 % at $1,430.74 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 1.07 % at $743 an ounce. It hit a near two-month high of $752.50 on Tuesday. (Reuters)

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