Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 25 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 25 Oct 2013, 09:43 AM

Asia

 Philippines Holds Key Interest Rate As Growth Exceeds 7%. The Philippines held its benchmark interest rate at a record low for an eighth meeting to support Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy as inflation stays within the central bank’s targeted range. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits at 3.5 %, according to a statement in Manila today, as forecast by all 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Policy makers also kept the rate on special deposit accounts at 2 %, as predicted by all nine analysts in a separate survey. (Bloomberg)

 Vietnam Ships RM43.2bil Worth Of Goods To ASEAN. Vietnam exported nearly US$1.53bil (RM4.73bil) worth of goods to other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in September, Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported. The figure helps raise the country's nine-month exports to these markets to US$13.72bil (RM43.2bil), representing a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Among Asean countries, Malaysia was the biggest trade partner of Vietnam, followed by Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia. Last year, Vietnam's exports to the regional markets topped US$17.08bil (RM53.9bil), surging 25.7% over the previous year. (Bernama)

 South Korea 3Q GDP Grows 1.1 % Versus 2Q, Just Above Forecast. South Korea's economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.1 % in the July-September period over the previous quarter, the Bank of Korea estimated on Friday, just beating the market's consensus forecast and holding steady at an over 2-year high. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 16 analysts was for Asia's fourth largest economy to expand by a seasonally adjusted 1.0 % during the third quarter. It matched growth of 1.1 % recorded in the second quarter, when the trade-reliant economy posted the quickest growth since the first quarter of 2011. (Reuters)

 China’s Manufacturing Strengthens In Boost To Recovery. China’s manufacturing strengthened more than anticipated this month, a sign the recovery is gaining momentum even as leaders struggle with surging home prices and local-government debt. The preliminary 50.9 reading for a Purchasing Managers’ Index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with a 50.4 median estimate from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. (Bloomberg)

 China's Central Bank Tightens Cash Supply. China's central bank added fuel to fears yesterday it was clamping down on inflation risks as it allowed cash to drain from the financial system for a second straight week, sparking a jump in short-term rates. The move by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) happened as Beijing stepped up its efforts to counter surging property prices in the capital in an attempt to calm rising discontent over the city's record-high home prices. China also widened the funding options for local governments and property companies by giving them access to the interbank bond market to finance affordable housing, a priority of Chinese leaders, sources told IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication. (Reuters)

 

USA

 More Americans Than Forecast Filed Jobless Claims. More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week as California continued to work through a backlog. Jobless claims decreased by 12,000 to 350,000 in the week ended Oct. 19 from a revised 362,000 in the prior period, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease to 340,000. Applications in California remained elevated and analysts weren’t able to determine how many non-federal workers filed due to the government shutdown, a Labor Department spokesman said. (Bloomberg)

 Markit Factory Index In U.S. Fell To 51.1 In October From 52.8. The Markit Economics preliminary index of U.S. manufacturing decreased to 51.1 in October from a final reading of 52.8 at the end of the previous month, the London-based group said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists called for a drop to 52.5, with estimates ranging from 50 to 54. A reading greater than 50 for the purchasing managers’ figure corresponds to expansion. (Bloomberg)

 Trade Gap In U.S. Little Changed As Exports, Imports Stall. The trade deficit in the U.S. was little changed in August as imports and exports stalled, indicating a loss of momentum in global economic growth. The gap increased 0.4 % to $38.8 billion from a revised $38.6 billion in July that was smaller than previously reported, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 71 economists called for a $39.4 billion deficit. (Bloomberg)

 Consumer Sentiment In U.S. Falls To Eight-Month Low. Consumer confidence sank last week to the lowest level in eight months as Americans grew more concerned the budget standoff in Washington hurt the world’s largest economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 36.1 in the period ended Oct. 20, the lowest since February, from minus 34.1. The report also showed more households were pessimistic about the economy than at any time in the past year even as lawmakers approved a deal that ended the partial shutdown of federal agencies. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

 Euro-Area Services, Manufacturing Unexpectedly Slow. Euro-area services and manufacturing output unexpectedly slowed in October as the recovery in the currency bloc struggled to gain momentum. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries declined to 51.5 this month from 52.2 in September, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists had forecast the indicator would rise to 52.4, according to the median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Factory output in China increased more than expected this month, separate data showed. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

 Dollar Trims Loss As Jobless Claims Fall. The U.S. dollar trimmed losses versus the euro and Japanese yen after data showed first time jobless claims fell in the latest week and that the U.S. trade gap widened in August. The euro traded at $1.3788, up from $1.3775 in North American trading late Tuesday but down from a level above $1.38 seen ahead of the data. The dollar traded at 97.42 Japanese yen compared with 97.37 yen late Wednesday. The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, traded at 79.165, down from 79.270 late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

 U.S. Oil Prices Rise, Gasoline Supports As Brent/WTI Narrows. U.S. oil futures recouped losses in choppy trade on Thursday while European Brent crude slid, as traders bet that an abrupt slump earlier this week in the hotly traded Brent-WTI spread had gone too far. The U.S. crude oil benchmark snapped three sessions of losses and ended the day 25 cents higher at $97.11 a barrel, after touching a four-month low of $95.95. Brent crude oil ended 81 cents lower to $106.99 a barrel, a fresh two-month settlement low. Brent's premium over U.S. oil narrowed by as much as $1.13 per barrel to $9.81, in intraday trade, almost touching the 200-day moving average of $9.77. It settled at $9.88. (Reuters)

 Gold Up 1 Pct, Above $1,350/Oz, After U.S. Jobless Claims. Gold rose 1 % on Thursday, breaking above $1,350 an ounce for the first time in more than a month, on rekindled buying prompted by expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its monetary stimulus due to disappointing U.S. jobless claims data. Spot gold rose 1 % to $1,345.70 an ounce by 3:43 p.m. EDT (1943 GMT), having earlier hit $1,351.61, its highest since Sept. 20. Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.8 % at $22.67 an ounce, while platinum also rose 1.1% to $1,445.75 an ounce and palladium inched down 0.1 % to $743.47 an ounce. (Reuters)

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