Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 28 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 28 Oct 2013, 09:37 AM

Global

 World Bank Intends To Boost Lending With Existing Capital. The World Bank is exploring ways to boost its lending capacity and revenue without asking for fresh capital as part of a poverty-fighting strategy endorsed by member countries this month, the lender’s chief financial officer said. Options include increasing some of the interest rates charged, loosening the limits on loans and offering new services, Bertrand Badre, who joined the bank in March, said in an interview. The measures would accompany cost cuts and have yet to be discussed with officials from the 188 member nations before their next meeting in April, he said. (Bloomberg)

Asia

 Japan Consumer Prices Rise For 4th Straight Month. Japan's consumer prices rose in September for the fourth straight month, boosted mainly by higher energy costs, in the latest set of data showing fitful progress toward revitalizing the economy. The core consumer price index, which excludes food, was up 0.7 % compared with 0.8 % in August, the Management and Coordination Agency said. With food prices factored in, the index was up 1.1 %. (AP)

 Thailand’s Interest Rate Acceptable For Economy, Kittiratt Says. Thailand’s Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said he can accept higher-than-desirable interest rates set by the central bank as long as the currency remains near current levels. The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate at 2.5 % for a third meeting on Oct. 16, after cutting it a quarter %age point in May. Kittiratt had complained that interest rates were too high, attracting speculative capital, strengthening the currency and weakening the economy. (Bloomberg)

USA

 US Wholesale Inventories Rise More Than Expected In August. U.S. wholesale inventories rose more than expected in August, suggesting that restocking was less of a drag on economic growth on the eve of a fiscal battle in Washington than analysts had thought. The Commerce Department said on Friday wholesale inventories rose 0.5 % in August, the biggest increase since January. The government also said inventories rose more than initially estimated in July. (Reuters)

 Orders Drop Shows U.S. Business Confidence Wanes. Orders to manufacturers unexpectedly dropped in September and households were more glum in October for a third consecutive month, showing the U.S. economy was taking a step back heading into the fiscal gridlock that partially shut down the federal government. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, which reflect demand for productivity-enhancing equipment like machinery and electrical gear, decreased 1.1 % last month, the second drop in three months, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. Other data showed consumer sentiment sank to a 10-month low. (Bloomberg)

 Consumer Sentiment Slides In October On Government Shutdown. U.S. consumer sentiment dropped in October to its lowest level since the end of last year as consumers worried Congressional dysfunction and the resulting partial federal government shutdown would hurt growth, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment fell to 73.2 in October from 77.5 in September and was the lowest final reading since December 2012. The October figure was lower than both the 75.0 forecast by economists in a Reuters poll and the mid-month preliminary reading of 75.2. (Reuters)

Europe

 UK GDP: Fastest Growth For Three Years. UK economic output rose by 0.8% between July and September, official GDP figures show. The Office for National Statistics said there had been a "fairly strong" performance across all sectors. The data builds on a 0.7% GDP rise in the April-June period and is the best quarterly performance since 2010. The ONS data for construction was up 2.5% over the quarter, the second successive quarter of growth after a volatile performance over the past year. The ONS said that production grew by 0.5%, though this remains 12.8% off its 2008 level, while within this, manufacturing improved 0.9% in the third quarter. The services sector, which represents three-quarters of economic output, grew by 0.7%. Output from services is now 0.4% above its precrisis peak in the first quarter of 2008. (BBC)

 German Business Morale Falls For First Time Since April. Confidence among German businesses showed an unexpected fall in October as concerns over a strong euro and a U.S. government shutdown resolved earlier this month took their toll. The widely watched Ifo business climate data for Germany, the first drop in six months, showed business morale fell to 107.4 from 107.7, missing forecasts. Firms assessed their business outlook slightly less optimistically than last month and were also less positive about the current business situation, but the figures remain above average. (CNBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Struggles As Consumer Sentiment Weakens. The U.S. dollar struggled for direction Friday, attempting to rebound from a nearly two-year low versus the euro, as end-of-week position-squaring competed with lackluster economic data, including a steeperthan-expected fall in consumer sentiment. The ICE dollar index — which gauges the U.S. unit against six other majors — traded at 79.181, slipping from Thursday’s 79.211 in choppy price action. The euro earlier drove to an intraday high at $1.3832, its strongest level since November 2011, and changed hands in recent action at $1.3802, little changed from its level in North American trade late Thursday. The British pound rallied in early action but set back to trade at $1.6173, little changed from late Thursday. The euro rose 0.2% versus the pound to trade at 85.34 pence. The Australian dollar bought 95.83 U.S. cents, unchanged from its level late Thursday. The Japanese yen trimmed gains as the dollar traded at ¥97.40 versus late Thursday’s ¥97.39. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 U.S. Oil Futures Edge Up; Brent/Wti Spread Narrows. U.S. oil futures ended higher for the second day in row on Friday while European Brent crude fell, tightening the trans-Atlantic spread as traders bet that increasing refinery operations and a major new Midwest pipeline will slow the rise in inventories. U.S. crude oil ended 74 cents higher at $97.85 a barrel, but finished the week with a 3 % loss and its third weekly decline. Brent crude for December ended 6 cents a barrel lower at $106.93, its third day of losses and second weekly decline. Brent ended the week 2.7 % lower, its biggest weekly decline in one month. (Reuters)

 Gold Up On Weak Economic Data, Deferred Tapering Of Fed Stimulus. Gold inched up slightly on Friday as disappointing U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus intact well into 2014. Spot gold was up $4.62, or 0.34%, at $1,351.16 an ounce by 2:38 p.m. EDT (1838 GMT), hovering below its highest level since Sept. 20 of $1,351.61. In other precious metals, silver fell $0.15, or 0.66 %, to $22.54 an ounce, having hit a one-month high of $22.85 in the previous session. Spot platinum was up $7.90, or 0.55 %, at $1,453.24 an ounce, supported by news of a potential South African workers' strike at the world's second-largest producer, Impala Platinum, after wage talks failed. Spot palladium fell $5.28, or 0.71 %, to $739.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

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